Devil Rays Trade Value Index and 2007 Roster Projections

We were recently reading a Bill Simmon’s column from ESPN, Page 2, entitled “NBA Trade Value Index.” In the article Simmons ranks the top-40 NBA players based on their respective values to their team. In theory a team would trade one of their players for any player ranked ahead of that player. Simmons takes into account more than the players ability. He considers various factors such as age, ability, contract, etc. With the Major League Baseball trade deadline fast approaching, this got us thinking. Which players in the Devil Rays organization are the most valuable to the team. So we set out to come up with a Trade Value Index for the Devil Rays. We weren’t so foolish to think we could rank every player in the organization, so we needed a logical cut-off. Our desire was to include every member of the 40-man roster as well as the team’s top prospects. So we decided to create a list that when finished would include every member of the 40-man roster, assuming that a number of players not on the 40-man roster would be ranked ahead of the last player from the 40-man roster. In other words, we would rank every player in the organization that is as valuable or more valuable than Travis Lee (the least valuable member of the 40-man roster). Ultimately this included 67 players.

In ranking the players, we considered many factors, including current ability, potential, contract status, age, as well as future with the organization. This last factor comes into effect if one player in the minors is stuck behind another player with more ability. For example, Elijah Dukes loses some value because the team has Rocco Baldelli and Carl Crawford already firmly entrenched on the major league roster and Delmon Young is slated to be the right fielder of the future. Another factor is team needs. Pitchers may be ranked ahead of a more “talented” fielder because the team has a stronger need for pitching at the major league level.

Ultimately, when looking at the rankings, the question should be, “If team A offered Player X, and they wanted one of two Devil Rays players, which one would the Front Office be less likely to part with?” For example, if the Florida Marlins offered the Devil Rays Dontrelle Willis…and they asked for either Scott Kazmir or Carl Crawford, which one would the front office be more willing to give up. In our rankings, the team would give the Marlins Crawford before they would give up Kazmir. So this is why a player like Julio Lugo is very low on the list. He does not have that much value to the team. He is an extremely talented player, but he makes a lot of money and he is a free agent at the end of the season and not likely to be resigned by the team. Therefore it would take much less for another team to acquire Lugo from the Devil Rays than a player like Wes Bankston even though Lugo is clearly a better player.

A couple of notes on the Rankings…

1. We aknowledge that there may be errors in the “Contract Status” and “Roster Status” columns and strongly encourage anybody to let us know so that we can have the most accurate information.
2. We are confident that most players are at least in the general area of where they should be ranked. However, this listing is a work in progress and we are open to any ideas or suggestions you may have. Don’t like the position of a certain player? Let us know. Do you think Travis Lee is more valuable to the team? We will certainly listen to your argument.
3. That being said, couple of players were troublesome. The biggest example is Josh Hamilton. We have no way to know how valuable the organization considers Hamilton at this point. Would the team part with him for a mid-level prospect, or do they still consider his potential too much to give up on him? We have Josh at #21, but we could see him in the list anywhere from #15 to #45.
4. We almost put Jeff Neimann at #4, ahead of B. J. Upton and Rocco Baldelli. In fact, as soon as Neimann regains his arm strength and endurance, we think he could ultimately reach #1, ahead of Scott Kazmir. He is that good.
5. Salaries with * next to them are the player’s ’06 salary. These players are not arbitration eligible yet and their ’07 salary should be comparable to their ’06 salary unless the team works out a long-term contract with that player. The only player we can see that happening with is Scott Kazmir. In fact we actually expect it. Kazmir’s agent has a track record of negotiating long-term contracts for young stars that go into the players arbitration years and first year(s) of free agency. This was the route taken with Travis Hafner and the same route taken by the Devil Rays with Crawford and Baldelli.
6. The rankings are flexible and in constant flux. For example, Andrew Sonnanstine is ranked higher than he would have been a month ago after pitching 4 complete game shutouts in seven starts and going 7-0 over that span. Our goal is to update this list periodically.

After we ranked the top 67 players in the organization, we then decided to project the 2007 40-man roster and potential payroll. We are basing this solely on the players in the organization now. Obviously the team will sign a few free agents and trades are likely to be made and when these changes are made, we will incorporate them into the rankings and the projected roster.

A couple of notes on the projected 40-man roster…

1. We take a stab at guessing the 2007 salary every member of the 2007 40-man roster. Interestingly, the projected payroll for 2007 is only $25 million. This is down considerably from the 2006 payroll of $43 million. And this includes
   $4 million for Scott Kazmir if he does sign a long-term contract. That number could potentially be less, but probably not more. This could be an interesting development for the team as the young players continue to develop. If we are reading this right and we like to think we are, the Rays may be setting themselves up to make a big free agent splash in 2008, when the team may only need one or two pieces to contend for a playoff spot.
2. We are working under the assumption that all players that are eligible for arbitration will be offered arbitration. This is unlikely to happen, but it is difficult to project exactly who will not be offered arbitration. We could guess, but we choose not to at this point.
3. There are several players that are to be free agents at the end of the season, and if they are not traded, we don’t see any of them being re-signed by the team, but that could change. This includes Sean Burroughs. The team has a $2.25 million option on him for 2007. There is no chance the team will exercise that option and Sean will become a free agent. However, in Burroughs case, the team may attempt to re-sign him at a reduced rate.
4. We also project the players most likely to be added to the 40-man roster. These are the top players that would be eligible for the Rule 5 draft if they are not protected on the 40-man roster. Last season Jason Pridie was left unprotected and drafted by the Minnesota Twins. They did not feel he was ready for a spot on their major league roster, so he was returned to the Devil Rays after spring training.

Once we finished the projected 40-man roster, we then projected the 25-man major league roster.

A couple of notes on the 25-man active roster…

1. We are again only using players currently in the organization. In other words this is the projected lineup if no other players are added to the organization, either through free agency or trades. Again, this list is constantly being reevaluated…if and when new players are added we will incorporate those into these rankings.
2. We are assuming an 11-man pitching staff. Obviously a 12-man staff would be one less fielder on the bench.
3. We can see the team re-signing Sean Burroughs at a reduced rate and using him as left-handed bat off the bench. If not, Darnell McDonald, who has major league experience, (or a veteran free agent) is the best choice at this time for the final roster spot.
4. In the bullpen, Shinji Mori, Dan Micelli and Edwin Jackson have to be on the active roster (Mori and Micelli are signed for ’07, and Jackson will be out of options in ’07). Tyler Walker will start the season on the DL. If Seth McClung can make the move to closer, that leaves two spots for Rudy Lugo, Chad Orvella and Juan Salas.
5. The most likely position player to be different than listed (in our eyes) is Ben Zobrist. We doubt that the team believes Zobrist is the team’s future shortstop, but he does offer a solid, if unspectacular glove and a strong walk to strikeout ratio not seen in the everyday lineup right now. He has the potential to be a solid #2 hitter. Unfortunately, this is the position that is most likely to be filled by somebody else, such as Luis Ordaz or Tomas Perez. (Stabbing ourselves in the eyes with chopsticks!)
6. Unfortunately Casey Fossum is signed for next season and is unlikely to be headed anywhere. On the flip side, he does offer a veteran presence in the rotation. On a good staff, he could be a solid contributer as a fifth starter, and will likely be traded to a contender before the deadline next season. In Tampa, he is over-matched as a front-of-the-rotation guy. Also, we think that J. P. Howell actually has a better shot at the ’07 rotation than Jae Seo. Therefore, if another pitcher steps up in Spring Training (Jason Hammel, Chris Seddon, etc.) Seo would be the odd-man out. The wildcard in the rotation is Jeff Niemann. He is likely to start season in Durham. However, if he can show that his arm strength and endurance have returned, he will make the jump to the Devil Rays very quickly. He is a guy that was deemed major-league ready out of college. “Stuff” is not an issue with him. His arm injury was not a major injury and right now he has been over-powering in his first few starts, but tires later in the game.

A Look At The Future…Yesterday On The Farm

Durham 15, Toledo 10. Heck of a night for Durham…heck of a night throughout the Devil Rays farm system, but more on that later…B. J. Upton 3-6 with 2 runs scored and his 41st stolen base. Ben Zobrist 2-5 with 3 runs scored and 2 RBI. Delmon Young was 3-5 with 3 runs scored, 3 RBI and his 3rd home run. Kevin Witt was 2-5 with his 26th home run and 5 RBI. Elijah Dukes was 2-5 with his 10th home run and 3 runs scored. Even Shawn Riggan was 3-5 with 2 doubles.

Montgomery 3, Jacksonville 0. Jeff Niemann is back with his best start ever as a professional and an excellent sign that he is returning from his year-long absence. Last night, Niemann worked 7 innings of 1-hit ball, giving up no runs and 2 walks. He struck out 3. Niemann was perfect through 5 before giving up a walk in the 6th. His only hit came on a lead-off single in the 7th.

Vialia, San Jose. Guess what…Evan Longoria hit another home run *yawn*. At this point we would be more surprised if he didn’t hit a home run. boooooorrrrringgggg.

D-Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Near Disney Land Tidbits

• The Rays enter this series 41 and friggin’ 58, 3.5 games behind the Horioles and 6,242 games behind the Red Hose in the AL East. The Rays are so far behind Boston right now, they should just move the team to Anchorage, Alaska. When the season started, we hoped for a .500 season…Then the goal was to finish ahead of Baltimore in the highly competitive AL East…Now we just want the team to stop embarrassing themselves.
• The Angelinos are 50-48, in 3rd place in the AL west but only 1 game behind Oakland and a half game behind Texas, both of whom are about as scared as a fastball approaching Vlad Guerrero’s thunder stick.
• After James Shields won his big-league debut against the Angels, on June 5, the Angels have won the last 5 match ups, including a 3-game sweep last week.
• Last time the Devils faced the Angels…no not that time…the last time the Devil RAYS faced the Angels, we got on Halo’s Heaven for calling for the promotion of Howie Kendrick, to replace the veteran Adam Kennedy during the pennant race. Well, we must eat at least a little crow for that one. Since then, Kendrick has been recalled and is platooning at 2B. He has handled himself very well so far, with 3 hits in his first game back and hits in each of his 4 starts and 5 RBI. We still think that Mike Scioscia (one of our all-time favorite players) is too smart and too old-school to give Kendrick very many starts and ABs down the stretch.
• Speaking Halo’s Heaven and platooning. They are now calling for an all-platoon lineup. By all-platoon, they of course mean that Super-Vlad would start against righties and Mega-Vlad would start against southpaws.
• Vlad, Vlad, Vlad…blah, blah, blah…Juan Rivera has 8 home runs this month and 3 multi-HR games in July.
• Its good to play at The Pit…The Rays have the 2nd biggest disparity between home and road record in the Majors. They are 24-21 at The Pit and 17-37 on the road. The Twins have a 37-11 record at home and 19-30 on the road.

Probable Pitchers
Monday, 7:15 et
Los Angeles John Lackey, LHP (8-6, 2.93)
Devil Rays Jae Seo, RHP (2-8, 5.44)

Tuesday, 7:15 et
Los Angeles Ervin Santana, RHP (11-3, 4.03)
Devil Rays James Shields, RHP (4-4, 5.75)

Wednesday, 12:15 et
Los Angeles Bartolo Colon, RHP (1-5, 4.55)
Devil Rays Casey Fossum, LHP (4-3, 4.84)

Devil Rays News And Notes

• If you are a regular visitor to RI, you know that we don’t spend a lot of time commenting on trade rumors, but as the trade deadline is approaching we keep getting asked where Julio Lugo is going to end up. The two teams that were mentioned most often early on were the Mets and the Red Sox who have both reportedly expressed interest in Lugo for quite some time. However, neither of those teams seem likely to be a future home of Lugo. Jose Valentin is having a great season for the Mets, who now look like they are more interested in shoring up their pitching staff. The Red Sox have been greatly impressed with the defensive play of Alex Gonzalez and may value his glove over Lugo’s bat. The team most often mentioned now is the Toronto Blue Jays. Lugo appears to be a perfect fit for the Jays. They are in need of a good leadoff hitter and the team lacks a lot of team speed. In addition, the Jays have a very young an inconsistent Aaron Hill playing second base now. There is no word yet who would be included in the package from the Blue Jays.
• Andrew Friedman was recently quoted as saying that no player was “untouchable”. That may be true, but we are having a hard time even imagining what it would take for another team to get Scott Kazmir. Is Victor Zambrano available? [tbo.com]
• Kid K hitched a ride to the All-Star game. [WCBS radio]
• The 1998-2000 Devil Rays uniforms were named one of the 10 worst in the history of ALL PROFESSIONAL SPORTS. We couldn’t agree more. [ESPN.com]
• Justin Ruggiano was acquired from the Dodgers to complete the Mark Hendrickson and Toby Hall deal. [devilrays.com]
• Anybody know who this is? And why does he have a gigantic ‘W’ on his warm-up jacket?
  

A Look At The Future: This Past Weekend On The Farm

Durham Bulls. On Thursday, the Bulls lost to Scranton/Wilkes Barre 8-5. Delmon Young had 3 hits and Doug Waechter still sucks. Juan Salas and Seth McClung each pitched a scoreless inning. On Friday night, Durham lost to Toledo 4-3. B. J. Upton, Ben Zobrist and Delmon Young went a combined 0-11 with 2 errors. Kevin Witt did hit his league-leading 24th home run, a solo shot. Jason Hammel only lasted 3 innings before being pulled after allowing 3 runs. Saturday, the Bulls beat the Mud Hens 5-1. Young added 3 more hits, including a double and a triple to raise his average to .337. J. P. Howell, added another strong start to his resume by pitching 5.2 innings of 6 hit, 1 run ball. He also had 10 strikeouts and no walks. Howell is now 3-2 with a 2.69 ERA in 6 starts for the Bulls. Last night, Witt added another home run (25) and Zobrist added 2 more hits as the Bulls beat Toledo 4-3. Chris Seddon pitched 7 strong innings for the win (7-5).

Montgomery Biscuits. On Saturday, Mitch Talbot, had his second strong start in as many starts since being acquired from Houston. He went 7 innings, giving up 4 hits, 3 walks and 2 runs. He struck out 2.

Visalia Oaks. Who does Evan Longoria think he is? Albert Pujols? On Thursday, he added 3 more hits and then Saturday he hit his 7th home run in 80 at bats for the Oaks. But just to show everyone that he is human, he went 0-3 last night. We hope that somebody gave him the riot act.

The Hangover: This Past Weekend In The AL East

Tampa Bay D-Rays. The D-Rays ended a nearly week-long hitting strike in which they were apparently protesting Carl Crawford’s all-star snub, by taking out their frustration on their division rival, the Baltimore Horioles. In their first 7 games out of the break, the Rays scored a total of 21 runs in being swept by the Angels (3 games) and the Twins (4 games). On Friday and Saturday night, they combined for 27 runs. In doing so, they accomplished a couple of rare feets. On Saturday night, Julio “trade bait” Lugo put his value on display by becoming only the second shortstop ever to hit 2 home runs in a single inning. In addition, the Rays and the O’s became only the 4th set of teams and 1st since 1933, to each score 9+ runs in a single inning in a single game. By doing so, Tampa nearly blew 13-3 lead and had to hold on for dear life when Brian Meadows had to come on to record a 5-out save including pitching out of a no-out, bases loaded jam in the 8th inning. But then the bats went cold again yesterday, as the team lost 4-2 and only managed 3 hits, and didn’t get their first hit until the 5th inning. Lugo sat out Sunday afternoon for the first time since returning from the DL on May 5th. Of course, this move imediately sent up red flags everywhere as speculation that a deal was in place for Lugo spread like wildfire. Needless to say, Lugo is still a D-Ray, for now. However, if anything good came out of the O’s win on Sunday, it was the O’s fans coming back from the edge. We guess the thought of being swept by the Tampa ‘Frickin’ Bay would have been just too much to handle. The Rays (41-58) are suddenly 19.5 games behind the Red Sox and 3.5 games behind the Orioles (45-55).

The Boston Red Devils (59-38) lost the rubber match of their series with the Mariners in bizarre fashion on Sunday and Red Sox nation is not taking it very well. In the bottom of the 8th inning Adrian Beltre hit a go-ahead, 2-out inside-the-park home run to give the M’s an 8-7 lead. In the top of the 9th, Jason Varietek hit a 2-out game tying solo home run, only for Richie Sexson to answer in the bottom of the 9th with a lead-off, walk-off home run to give the M’s a 9-8 win.

The New York Yankees (56-40) were unable to capitalize on the Red Hose’s loss, as they lost 2 of 3 to the Toronto Blue Jays (55-43) and are providing lessons on a new way to play the game. Recent pickup Sidney Ponson was hit hard in his second start with the Spankees, giving up 6 runs before being pulled in the 3rd inning.

A Look At The Future…Yesterday On The Farm

Thank goodness for the new fortunes that can be found among the Devil Rays’ farm system. There are strong prospects at every level and as poorly as the parent club is playing right now, at least there is hope in reading minor league boxscores every morning.

Montgomery 7, West Tennessee 0. Normally we would begin with the Durham Bulls, but we need to introduce you to the greatness that has become Andy Sonnanstine. First baseman Michael Coleman hit a 3rd inning grand slam, his 11th home run of the season and that was all the Biscuits needed. Sonnanstine pitch a complete game 2-hit shutout, with 1 walk and 5 strikeouts. Sonnanstine is now 10-6 on the season with a 2.79 ERA. The shutout was his 4th complete game shutout this season. Even more impressive is that the shutout was his 4th in his last 7 starts. Over that span of 7 starts, Sonnanstine has compiled a 7-0 record. In those starts, he has thrown 57.2 innings, surrendering 28 hits, 7 walks and 7 runs, for an ERA of 1.09 and a WHIP of 0.61. He has 39 strikeouts over that span. Sonnanstine is leading all minor league baseball in shutouts (nobody else more than 2). In fact, according to the Bulls broadcast team, nobody has pitched more than 3 complete game shutouts in AA or AAA in the past 3 seasons. Andy was a 13th round draft pick in the 2004 amateur draft out of Kent State University, the same draft that produced Jeff Niemann, Reid Brignac, Wade Davis, Jacob McGee and Matt Walker. Sonnanstine is not a dominating pitcher, but he has dominated at every level and it is probably time to see what he can do at AAA.

Scranton 8, Durham 6. A 9th inning rally came up short for the Bulls last night. After tripling home 2-runs to cut the deficit to 2 with nobody out, Delmon Young was thrown out at the plate on a sacrifice fly by Kevin Witt. Earlier in the game B. J. Upton hit his 7th home run of the year. Upton went 3-4 and scored 3 runs, but he did commit his first error since being moved to third base. Young went 2-5 with 3 RBI. Newly acquired Ben Zobrist continues his torrid streak. He had two more hits last night and is now hitting .417 (10-24) with a 4 to 1 walk to strikeout ratio and a .500 OBP in 7 games with the Bulls. Let’s hope that the franchise’s new shortstop is not teasing us. When the trade was first made, we thought young Ben had the chance to be a serviceable and dependable major league shortstop. Maybe hit .270 and hit a dozen home runs with a solid OBP and sharp if unspectacular glove. It is only seven games, but we love what we see so far. Will Zobrist be the Rays shortstop this season if Julio Lugo is traded? Probably not before September 1st. Unfortunately, we will still have endure a month of Tomas Perez playing shortstop.

Visalia 4, Modesto 1. We sure hope that the players and staff can keep Evan Longoria as far away from any water as possible, because the kid is on fire. Seriously…he can’t keep this up can he? Longoria continues to treat California League pitchers like little leaguers and right now that baseball must look as big as a beach ball. Three more hits and an RBI last night for Evan and he is now hitting .385-6-18 in 17 games with Visalia. James Houser picked up his 7th win, going 6 innings with 3 hits, 1 walk and 1 run. He struck out 6.

SW Michigan 9, Cedar Rapids 3. Another member of that stellar class of 2004 is Matt Walker. Walker, a 10th round selection, struggled in his first season last year. This season has been a different story. Last night Walker improved to 3-2 with 1.76 ERA by striking out 10 over 6 innings with 5 hits, 2 walks and 2 runs.

Mahoning Valley 4, Hudson Valley 3. Josh Hamilton went 1-3 with a single and 2 strikeouts.

Some Things Change, And Some Things Stay The Same

Minnesota 7, D-Rays 2. Shake, Shake, Shake your lineup…Manager Joe Maddon shuffled the lineup last night in an effort to awaken the team’s bats. We have long be advocates for moving Carl Crawford into the 3-spot of the lineup, but we knew there was really not a legitimate #2 hitter on the roster (the reason the acquisition of Ben Zobrist was so important). Well, Maddon solved that problem by moving, at least temporarily, by moving the slumping Jonny Gomes up to the second spot. The move gives Gomes an order of protection from C. C. that he wouldn’t normally receive from someone like Damon Hollins. The move could also take pressure off of Gomes so that he doesn’t feel the need to hit a 5-run home run every time he is at the plate. Well, the move worked for Gomes last night as he hit only his second home run in over a month. Unfortunately the lineup shuffle generated the same results for the rest of the lineup as the team’s offense continues to struggle. And the pitching is not helping. Last night, Jae Seo gave up to home runs to a guy that had only hit 1 home run all season. The team has now lost all six games since the break and nine of ten overall. And the schedule does not get any easier from here on out. Tonight the team faces the best pitcher in the AL in the form of Johan Santana. Then after a series against the Orioles, the Rays must play consecutive series the Angels, the Yankees, the Tigers and the Red Sox. Yesterday we feared a 5-25 stretch. Now we are afraid that prediction was too optimistic.

A Look At The Future…Yesterday On The Farm

Scranton 8, Durham 1. Some people see the finish line and they freeze. Others see the finish line and the find another gear. In the Houston Astros’ organization Ben Zobrist was languishing at AA. Since his trade to the Devil Rays and the subsequent promotion to AAA, Zobrist has found another gear. B. J. ‘don’t call me Melvin’ Upton, has moved to third base and Julio Lugo is likely to be traded. Zobrist can smell the big leagues. Last night Zobrist went 2-3 with a walk. In 6 games at Durham he is 8-21 (.381) with a .500 OBP. A lot can change in two weeks. Two weeks ago the future shortstop for the Rays was either Upton, Lugo or Reid Brignac. All three give us agida for some reason (Upton and Brignac are terrible defensively…Lugo is a free agent the team cannot afford). Zobrist? He appears to be solid defensively. His style of hitting is nowhere to be seen on the Rays’ roster. He is an OBP machine when the team desperately needs one.

West Tennessee 5, Montgomery 1. Jeff Niemann’s record (0-4) is not very good. In fact it sucks. But for the most part he has pitched well in his return…that was until last night. Last night Niemann gave up 7 hits, 1 walk and 4 runs in 4 innings of work.

Vialia 7, Modesta 6. And the future third baseman for the Devil Rays? B. J. Upton? Try Evan Longoria. 24 professional games…10 home runs….383 batting average. That was after another 3-5 performance with a home run and 4 RBI.

We Tip Our Cap To The Greatness That Is Francisco Liriano

Minnesota 8, D-Rays 1. It was billed as the matchup of the two best young pitchers in the big leagues. The Twins’ Francisco Liriano versus the Rays’ Scott Kazmir. Both are 22…both have shown the ability to dominate at a young age…Both entered the game with 10 wins…Kid K was an All-Star…Liriano should have been…Both were acquired by their respective teams in what turned out to be lopsided trades (Liriano came to Minnesota with Joe Nathan for A. J. Pierzynski). We had heard much about Liriano, but right now we have to admit, he stands head and shoulders above Kazmir. Liriano has what Kazmir does not have yet…Consistency. And he is consistent because he is efficient. In 8.2 innings, Liriano threw 111 pitches. In 6 innings, Kazmir threw 93 pitches. On top of that, Liriano threw his hardest pitch of the night in the top of the 9th (97 mph). Seth Speaks did a very impressive pitch-by-pitch analysis of the two pitchers. All you have to do is ask yourself one question. If you were starting a team today and you had to choose between Liriano and Kazmir, which would you choose? You are lying to yourself if don’t say Liriano and right now it is not even close. This is no knock on Kid K. He is good. He will be great. But right now, he is not Liriano. It is not even close. Don’t get us wrong…we love Kazmir, but if the Twinkies offered Liriano for him straight up, we would drive to the Metrodome and pick up Liriano ourselves. Alas, that will never happen and that suits us just fine. We love having Kid K on our side. He will rebound and he will be great…By the way, the losing streak now sits at five in a row and eight of nine.