Devil Rays Trade Value Index And 2007 Roster Projections

From time to time we will update our Devil Rays Trade Value Index (TVI) and 2007 Roster and Payroll Projections that can be found in the side panel to the right. The TVI ranks ever player on the current 40-man roster and the top prospects in the organization. Our goal was to determine which players in the organization are the most valuable to the team. Ultimately, when looking at the rankings, the question should be, “If team A offered Player X, and they wanted one of two Devil Rays players, which one would the Front Office be less likely to part with?” For example, if the Florida Marlins offered the Devil Rays Dontrelle Willis…and they asked for either Scott Kazmir or Carl Crawford, which one would the front office be more willing to give up. In our rankings, the Rays would give the Marlins Crawford before they would give up Kazmir. At the other end of the spectrum are the free agents-to be (ie. Brian Meadows). Obviously these players do not have very much current value to the team. If the team decides to re-sign any of these players their value to the team would obviously increase.

The rankings consider numerous factors in addition to talent, such as potential, age, contract and depth of position in organization. This last factor comes into effect if one player in the minors is stuck behind another player with more ability. For example, Elijah Dukes loses some value because the team has Rocco Baldelli and Carl Crawford already firmly entrenched on the major league roster and Delmon Young is slated to be the right fielder of the future. Another factor is team needs. Pitchers may be ranked ahead of a more “talented” fielder because the team has a stronger need for pitching at the major league level. (Please see the original TVI post for further explanation).

A couple of notes on the Rankings…

1. We acknowledge that there may be errors in the “Contract Status” and “Roster Status” columns and strongly encourage anybody to let us know so that we can have the most accurate information.
2. We are confident that most players are at least in the general area of where they should be ranked. However, this listing is a work in progress and we are open to any ideas or suggestions you may have. Don’t like the position of a certain player? Let us know. Do you think Travis Lee is more valuable to the team? We will certainly listen to your argument, and then we will suggest you get professional help.
3. Salaries with * next to them are the player’s ’06 salary. These players are not arbitration eligible yet and their ’07 salary should be comparable to their ’06 salary unless the team works out a long-term contract with that player. The only player we can see that happening with is Scott Kazmir. In fact we actually expect it. Kazmir’s agent has a track record of negotiating long-term contracts for young stars that go into the players arbitration years and first year(s) of free agency. This was the route taken with Travis Hafner and the same route taken by the Devil Rays with Crawford and Baldelli.
4. Jeff Niemann’s solid return to the mound moves him firmly into the top 5. We still believe that Niemann could eventually reach #1 on this list, ahead of even Kid K.
5. Dioner Navarro has been better than we expected. The team has stated that they wanted to be strong up the middle and the acquisition of Navarro was important to reach that goal. His bat and defense have actually surprised us and he is still very young. We now think he can be a very good catcher in this league for a long time.
6. Elijah Dukes was one of the biggest drops, going from 11 to 18. Obviously the suspensions have hurt the talented outfielder, but he is also stuck behind Rocco, C. C. and Delmon and a future in the Rays outfield is questionable at best.
7. The biggest fall was by Josh Hamilton. Josh was and continues to be the biggest question mark in these rankings, but the season-ending injury just makes his future even cloudier.
8. Joel Guzman makes his TVI debut at #20. He has been shaky so far but with no clear cut first base prospects in the minors or on the big league roster, Guzman cracks the top 20.
   

A couple of notes on the 40-man roster projection…

1. We take a stab at guessing the 2007 salary every member of the 2007 40-man roster. Interestingly, the projected payroll for 2007 is only $25 million. This is down considerably from the 2006 payroll of $43 million. And this includes $4 million for Scott Kazmir if he does sign a long-term contract. That number could potentially be less, but probably not more. This could be an interesting development for the team as the young players continue to develop. If we are reading this right and we like to think we are, the Rays may be setting themselves up to make a big free agent splash in 2008, when the team may only need one o
   r two pieces to contend for a playoff spot.
2. There are several players that are to be free agents at the end of the season, and if they are not traded, we don’t see any of them being re-signed by the team.
3. There are 36 players on the current 40-man roster that we see returning to the team in ’07.
   
4. We also project the 4 players most likely to be added to the 40-man roster. These are the top players that would be eligible for the Rule 5 draft if they are not protected on the 40-man roster. Last season Jason Pridie was left unprotected and drafted by the Minnesota Twins. They did not feel he was ready for a spot on their major league roster, so he was returned to the Devil Rays after spring training.
5. Elijah Dukes and Juan Salas are near certainties to be added to the 40-man roster. The other two spots could potentially be filled by free agents or trades.
   
6. Obviously any free agent signings and trades in the off-season will alter these projections.
   

A couple of notes on the 25-man roster projections…

1. We are assuming an 11-man pitching staff. Obviously a 12-man staff would be one less fielder on the bench.
2. In the bullpen, Shinji Mori, Dan Micelli and Edwin Jackson have to be on the active roster (Mori and Micelli are signed for ’07, and Jackson will be out of options in ’07). Tyler Walker will start the season on the DL. If Seth McClung can make the move to closer, that leaves two spots for Rudy Lugo, Chad Orvella and Juan Salas.
3. Unfortunately Casey Fossum is signed for next season and is unlikely to be headed anywhere. On the flip side, he does offer a veteran presence in the rotation. On a good staff, he could be a solid contributor as a fifth starter, and will likely be traded to a contender before the deadline next season. In Tampa, he is over-matched as a front-of-the-rotation guy. Also, we think that J. P. Howell actually has a better shot at the ’07 rotation than Jae Seo. Therefore, if another pitcher steps up in Spring Training (Jason Hammel, Chris Seddon, etc.) Seo would be the odd-man out. Still, spots 2,3,4 are probably all up for grabs in Spring Training. The wild card in the rotation is Jeff Niemann. He is likely to start season in Durham. However, if he can show that his arm strength and endurance have returned, he will make the jump to the Devil Rays very quickly. He is a guy that was deemed major-league ready out of college. “Stuff” is not an issue with him. His arm injury was not a major injury and he has been over-powering in his return.
4. The biggest question mark in the ’07 lineup is obviously first base. Ty Wiggington should be back and Kevin Witt, has an opportunity now and in Spring Training to win a spot. It would not surprise us to see a platoon situation until one or the other emerges with the other one being used as a spot starter. If that is the case look for Witt to be the everyday first baseman as Wiggy could be penalized due to his positional flexibility.
   
5. We don’t see anybody on the current 40-man roster that would fit nicely into the final bench spot. This spot is most likely to be filled via free agency, with a middle infielder.
   

A Look At The Future: News And Notes From The Farm

• The Durham Bulls were rained out last night against Columbus and will play their final home games of the season today as a double-header. The rain out was the best possible scenario for the fans with tickets to last night’s game as Doug Waechter was scheduled to start. Unfortunately he will pitch the first game of the double header tonight. Thankfully, minor league twinbills are only 7 innings, and the ticket holders at least have the second game to look forward to.
• Of a lesser note is the future of the relationship between the Durham Bulls and the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. The Bulls, who have won two International League titles as part of the Devil Rays organization, are signed to be the Devil Rays’ AAA affiliate through the 2008 season. However, this season the team is 64-74 and 14.5 games back in the standings. Worse for the Bulls has been the on-field and off-field behavior of several of the team’s key players. Needless to say, given the prominent nature of the franchise as a minor league affiliate, they would be highly sought after by other organizations if they decide not renew their contract past 2008. One recent article has questioned the future of this collaboration. [The News & Observer]
• Kevin Witt became the second member of the Devil Rays’ organization to be named a league MVP. This week, Witt was named the MVP of the International League after hitting .291 with a league leading 36 home runs and 99 RBI. Reid Brignac was previously named the MVP of the California League. [Durham Bulls]
• The Bulls’ Jeff Ridgway was named to the 2006 Olympic qualifying team as a relief pitcher. Ridgway has 67 strikeouts in 58 innings with a 2.79 ERA in 50 appearances with Montgomery and Durham. [Durham Bulls]
• Elijah Dukes will not report back to the Durham Bulls for the final week of the season even though he has completed his 30 game suspension. Rather, Dukes will play winter ball in the Dominican Republic and will report to the Devil Rays in Spring Training. [Tampa Tribune]
• The Princeton Rays concluded their season yesterday. They finished the season 28-36 in 5th place of the Appalachian League’s eastern division. One bright spot was the emergence of catcher Nevin Ashley, who was named to the league’s postseason All-Star squad. Ashley hit .326 with 4 home runs and 25 RBI to go along with 7 stolen bases in 9 attempts. Ashley was a 6th round pick this season out of Indiana State University. [MiLB]

The Hangover: And So It Begins

Chicago White Sox 12, D-Rays 9. Did anybody notice that the Devil Rays lost their 80th game last night? Neither did we. Delmon Young has arrived. There had been much speculation in recent weeks about if and when the Rays would call up Young. Some believed that the Rays would not call him up as one last bit of punishment for the incident back in April in which he threw a bat at an umpire and was subsequently suspended for 49 games. Then again, calling Young up to play for the Devil Rays is a form of punishment. Well on Monday, word came down that Jonny Gomes would need season-ending surgery and was placed on the disabled list. Young was scratched from the Durham Bulls lineup 15 minutes before the start of the game and told to pack his belongings and head to Chicago. Last night, Delmon Young made his major league and Tampa Bay Devil Rays debut. He wore #35, batted 8th and started in right field.

While many have waited for his debut, the debut itself was definitely eventful. The game started auspiciously for Young. With a lefty (Casey Fossum) on the mound, we honestly thought we wouldn’t even see Young in his uniform on the screen until he batted in the top of the second or third inning. Boy were we wrong and we are sure that Delmon wishes he hadn’t shown up til his first at bat either. With 2 on in the bottom of the first, Jermaine Dye hit an opposite field flyball that Young tracked to the wall. Unfortunately for Young, he appeared to misjudge his distance from the wall and instead of leaping for a catchable ball, he bumped into the wall and the ball bounced off the top of the fence for a 3-run home run.

Delmon Young stepped to the plate for the first time in the top of the 2nd with 2 outs and nobody on. Before the game, there were rumblings that the veteran players on the Rays roster would not be too kind to Delmon Young upon his arrival to the big leagues. Most rookies receive their fair share of hazing, but it has been speculated that the Rays’ veterans have not taken too kindly to some of Young’s comments and complaints to the press, especially coming from a player that hasn’t felt that he needed to pay the same dues as the rest of the players had to endure. Carl Crawford stated that it would probably be a good idea for Young to apologize to his new teammates. Well, apparently some other players in the league haven’t taken too kindly to the kid’s comments either. In his first plate appearance, Delmon Young was hit in the left elbow by the first pitch he saw from Freddy Garcia. Many, including Joe Maddon thought the pitch was intential (it was). Ultimately it was the best thing that could have happened to Young. It is easy to imagine that Young’s teammates, who before the game were cold towards him, all of the sudden would become protective of one of their own. We imagine that it must be a lot like having a little brother. In the top of the 4th, Young struck out swinging. Then in the top of the 6th Young may have solidified his relationship with his teammates a little further. With one out and Kevin Witt on first base, he took a Freddy Garcia hanging slider and rocketed a line drive over the left field wall for his first major league home run. He finished off his first night with a single to right field in the 8th to finish 2-3…In the bottom of the 8th inning, Joe Maddon, for one of the first times this season showed a bit of fire, and quite frankly, its about time. To show that Delmon Young is indeed a part of the team now, Rudy Lugo hit A. J. Pierzynski in what appeared to be payback for Young getting hit by a pitch earlier. Then again, if given the chance, even we would want to hit Pierzynski with a pitch. Wouldn’t everyone?

Delmon Young has arrived and the Delmon Young era has begun. His debut has been highly touted and people are watching closely (Our favorite headline is this one). Young was drafted in 2003 and we have heard all about his 5-tools. He was named by Baseball America as the minor league player of the year in 2005. He has been in the news and on the lips of Rays’ fans for quite sometime, which makes it hard to remember that Delmon is still only 20 years old. The team says they are going to use the last few weeks of 2006 to evaluate Young and his potential role with the club in 2007. With an immediate need in rightfield in 2007, it is hard to imagine that the front office will send him back to Durham next season. Therefore, the lineup for the 2007 Devil Rays and beyond, is starting to take shape in the last weeks of 2006. No longer do we see a lineup with Tomas Perez, Russell Branyan, Travis Lee and Damon Hollins. Instead we get to see potential and the future. Last night’s lineup very well could be the opening day lineup in 2007 except for DH, which is most likely to be Jonny Gomes as Greg Norton is free agent.

Welcome aboard Mr. Young. Please don’t let us down.

Young makes eventful debut [St. Pete Times]
Young responds well in Rays debut [Tampa Tribune]
Notes: Young will make MLB debut [MLB]

A Look At The Future: Yesterday On The Farm

Toledo 6, Durham 1. The Bulls managed only an RBI groundout by Wes Bankston in the first inning. Darnell McDonald and Shawn Riggans both collected 2 hits and Ty Wiggington was 1-4 with a double. McDonald stole his 29th base of the year. Chris Seddon was wild and ineffective as he dropped his record to 9-8. He gave up 6 hits, 4 walks and 2 runs before being pulled after 4 innings.

Montgomery 2, Birmingham 0. Evan Longoria went 2-4 with a solo home run, breaking a 3-37 slump. Jason Pridie who has struggled all season long, is finishing strong. Last night he collected 2 hits for the 4th time in his last 8 games. Jason Cromer pitched 5 scoreless innings, allowing only 2 hits and 3 walks. He left with the score tied 0-0. It was Cormer’s 3rd straight strong start after 5 straight bad outings.

Stockton 11, Visalia 3. Christopher Mason continues to struggle late in the season. For the 5th straight start, Mason allowed at least 5 runs. Last night he gave up 8 hits, 2 walks and 6 runs in 5 innings. After starting the season 9-3, his record now falls to 11-10. Too bad Michael Jordan wasn’t still playing. He would have been good for at least 2 strikeouts. Catcher Josh Arhart hit his 15th home run and is now hitting .301.

SW Michigan 3, Beloit 2, game 1, 11 inn.. All-Star Greg Dupas blew his 6th save of the season when he gave up a sacrifice fly in the top of the 7th. The D-Rays came back and won in the bottom of the 11th on a no-out single by Garrett Groce. Jacob McGee was strong, allowing only 1 hit, a leadoff home run in the top of the 4th. He struck out 6 six and walked 2 in 4 innings.

Beloit 7, SW Michigan 0, game 2, 5 inn.. In the nightcap, the Rays only managed 5 hits in 5 innings. William Evers gave up 5 runs on 5 hits and 2 walks in 2+ innings.

A Look At The Future: Yesterday On The Farm

Durham 8, Toledo 7. As expected, Delmon Young was pulled from last nights lineup in anticipation of joining the D-Rays in Chicago for tonight’s game against the White Sox. Sunday night may very well have been Young’s last game with the Bulls as there is definite need for a right fielder in 2007. The rest of the team has 7 games left to leave a strong impression on the organization. Last night, 5 different Bulls had 2 hits, including Darnell McDonald who could push for one of the last bench spots next season during Spring Training. He has his average up to .288 and has been solid and consistent all season long. Ty Wiggington, who is in Durham for a few days on a rehab assignment went 2-4 with a double and a 2-run home run. Wes Bankston also went 2-4 with 2 RBI and is now hitting .311 in AAA. Jim Magrane gave up 10 hits and 7 runs in 4.2 innings.

Montgomery 8, Birmingham 0. Evan Longoria continues to struggle. Last night he went 0-4, and is now hitting .253. He is 3 for his last 37. Patrick Breen the other promotion from Visalia, hit his 4th home run and 2nd in 3 games. Justin Ruggiano went 2-3 with 2 doubles and 3 RBI. Mitch Talbot was strong on the mound striking out 7 in 7.2 scoreless innings. He has only allowed 20 hits and 3 runs in his last 28.1 innings.

Visalia 8, Stockton 7. Sergio Pedroza, who began the season in the Dodgers organization has been on fire recently for the Oaks. Last night he went 3-3 with 2 doubles and 3 RBI. He is now hitting .338-4-8 in 23 games. In his last 10 games he is 17-39 (.436) with 8 doubles, 2 homes runs and 6 RBI. Jonathon Barratt inning single and 2 walks. pitched 5 scoreless innings allowing only a a 4thBarratt has not allowed a run in 6 of his last 9 starts and is 6-3 with a 1.60 ERA in his past 10 starts.

Delmon Young Could Be In Devil Rays’ Lineup Tomorrow

The St. Pete Times is reporting that that Jonny Gomes will be placed on the DL and will miss the rest of the season, and Delmon Young will take his place on the roster. The move which could happen as early as this afternoon would have Young make his major league debut in right field Tuesday night when the Rays begin a 3-game series in Chicago against the White Sox. This move has been speculated about for weeks and looked to be a near-certainty to happen on September 1st when the roster can expand to 40. The Rays will use the last 5 weeks of the season to see if if the 20-year old, former 1st overall pick, can be the everyday right fielder in 2007.

This is a move that needed to happen. If anything, the team needs Delmon Young in right field to make sure there are fannies in the seats the last month of the season. With the team’s anemic performance since the All-Star break, attendance has fallen considerably. Attendance is up nearly 30% over last year, but the number of fans attending games in recent weeks has been painfully low. During the most recent 4-game series against the Rangers, attendance was less than 10,000 for each game. With the Rays losing column inches to the Buccaneers, Delmon Young is a player that can keep the team in the news and bring fans to the park.

Young’s callup appears near. [St. Pete Times]

Devil Rays News And Notes

• Stacy Long was recently interviewed about Delmon Young for an article that will appear in the ESPN the Magazine. [Talk Alabama]
• Even though he only played in 100 games for the Visalia Oaks before being promoted to AA, Reid Brignac was named the California League MVP. [MiLB]
• Jacob McGee was named as the Left-handed starting pitcher to the post season All-Star team for the Midwest League. Closer Greg Dupas was one of two relief pitchers named to the team. [Battle Creek Enquirer]
• Speaking of the Southwest Michigan Devil Rays…Has anyone ever thought that it was a bit weird that a team in Michigan was named after a saltwater fish? Well, that will be fixed next season when the D-Rays move from Battle Creek to their new home in Midland, Michigan. The team will change their name to the Great Lakes Loons. The Loons? [WWMT]
• Here is a nice write-up of the great season that Andrew Sonnanstine is having, and his emergence as a top pitching prospect in the Rays organization. [Baseball America]
• And here is another on Kevin Witt that was written before his cal-up on Friday. Some guys just get it. [Charlotte News Observer]
• Its looking more and more like Jonny Gomes’ season is over. [Tampa Tribune]
• His season may not be over, but Luis Ordaz’ career with the Rays is over after 1 game and 2 at bats. Ordaz had 2 at bats on opening day subbing in for the injured Julio Lugo. After the game it was determined that an injury sustained during Spring Training was more serious than previously thought and he was placed on the 60-day DL. This past week, Ordaz was reinstated from the DL and Designated for Assignment so that he would not take a spot on the 40-man roster. Interestingly, Ordaz’ 1 game, 2 at bat career with the Rays is NOT the shortest stint in a Rays uniform. That distinction belongs to none other than the 48-year old Julio Franco, who appeared in 1 game for the Rays in 1999 and struck out in his only plate appearance. Another player, Kenny Kelly also had only a single plate appearance for the Rays, but he actually appeared in 2 games in 2000. [ESPN]
• Ty Wiggington’s broken hand appears to have healed ahead of schedule. He will spend the week in Durham on a rehab assignment and should be back with the Rays on Friday. [St. Pete Times]
• At least somebody has noticed Carl Crawford’s great season, even it has been lost amongst the mess that has been the 2006 Tampa Bay Devil Rays. [Bradenton Herald]
• When Joe Maddon gave his impromptu State of the Team address last week, it sounded an awful lot like spindoctoring. Trust us Joe, we can see the State of the Team in the 52-79 record and 26 games behind in the division. [Bradenton Herald]
• Six players will be allocated to the Arizona Fall League by the Rays…SS Ben Zobrist, 1B Wes Bankston, OF Fernando Perez, RHP Jeff Niemann, LHP Jeff Ridgway, RHP Jeremy Flanagan and LHP Brian Henderson. [Devil Rays]
• This news is a bit stale, but the Rays appear to be moving their Spring Training home from St. Pete to Charlotte County, the previous spring training home of the Texas Rangers. [Devil Rays]

Jonny Gomes’ Season May Be Over

Joe Maddon announced that Jonny Gomes will have his shoulder examined during the team’s off day on Monday. Gomes has been playing most of this season with a strained rotator cuff, that has limited him to DH duties. The injury will likely require arthroscopic surgery and there is a good possibility that he may need to have the surgery sooner rather than later. If that is the case, Gomes’ season will be over and Kevin Witt, who was called up after the Russell Branyan trade last night, would fill in at DH the remainder of the season.

Rays trade Branyan for class A pitcher. [St. Pete Times]

D-Rays @ Baltimore Orioles Tidbits

• If there is such a thing as an important series when your team is 52-76 and in last place, this is an important series and as important as it gets. The Rays enter this series with one last hope to finish strong and possibly surge past the Horioles into 4th place in the division. The O’s are 4.5 games ahead of the Rays and the two teams have 6 games remaining head-to-head including this 3 game set in Camden Yards. In addition the Rays will send to the mound three pitchers that could possibly make 3/5 of the rotation for years to come. In particular this is a very good opportunity for Jason Hammel to show the club that he can be an effective major league pitcher. Hammel made two starts earlier this season, including one against the Orioles. He has struggled a bit down at Durham going 5-9 with a 4.23 ERA, but is considered one of the better pitching prospects in the Rays’ system.
• While the Rays just took 3 of 4 from the Rangers to all but eliminate Texas from the playoffs, the Orioles enter this series having lost 2 of 3 to the Twins. That came on the heals of taking 4 of 6 from the Yankees and the Jays.
• The Rays Tragic Number is 12 (11 in the division). Good news is, the Rays will not be the first team to be officially eliminated from the playoffs. The Royals have already been eliminated from their division, and their elimination number for the wild card is 5.
• The Rays are 1-15 on the road since the All Star break, and haven’t won a road series since taking 2 of 3 from the Phillies during interleague play in June.

Probable Pitchers

Friday, 7:05 et
Devil Rays Jason Hammel, RHP (0-1, 10.80)
Baltimore Daniel Cabrera, RHP (6-8, 4.94)

Saturday, 4:35 et
Devil Rays James Shields, RHP (6-6, 4.74)
Baltimore Erik Bedard, LHP (12-9, 3.98)

Sunday, 1:35 et
Devil Rays Scott Kazmir, LHP (10-8, 3.24)
Baltimore Adam Loewen, LHP (4-4, 5.57)

Addition By Subtraction…Rays Get Rid Of Russell Branyan

Kevin Witt called up to replace Branyan on roster

Last night the Devil Rays traded Russell Branyan to the San Diego Padres for minor leaguer Evan Meek and either a player to be named later or cash. The Padres, who are 1 game back of the Dodgers in the NL West and 1.5 games back in the wild card race, are looking to bolster their bench with a power bat that can also fill in at third base. Branyan is not the sort of player that is going to make a difference in a pennant race. He has the worst batting average of any Major Leaguer with 150 at bats (.201) and has as many singles as home runs (12). He also struck out 62 times in 169 at bats. His last at bat as a Devil Ray was a fitting end to his short stint for Tampa Bay. Last night, with 2 outs and the tying and winning runs on base, Branyan struck out to end the game. Still, the price was cheap and the Padres decided to take a chance.

In return the Rays received Evan Meek. Meek was an 11th round draft pick by the Twins in 2002 out of high school. After going 7-1 with a 2.47 in his first professional season, Meek lost his control and began to walk batters at a Ankielian rate. In 2004 he walked 40 in 28 innings. In 2005, he walked 36 in 18 innings. At the end of that season, the Twins cut their ties with Meek and he was signed by the Padres. He has been much better this season with Beloit in the Midwest League (same league as Southwest Michigan Devil Rays). In 119 innings he has 113 strikeouts and 62 walks. He has a fastball that reaches the upper 90s but little command of any other pitches. At best he is a project and a longshot to ever be a legitimate prospect. He will begin his tenure with the Devil Rays in high-A Visalia.

To replace Branyan on the roster, the Devil Rays have called up Kevin Witt. Witt’s promotion was long speculated, long overdue and very deserving. At 30, Witt is past the status of prospect but some players develop a little later than others and Witt has thoroughly dominated the International League this season and is a leading candidate to be named league MVP. In 128 games for Durham he hit .291 with 36 home runs and 99 RBI. Witt has 10 more home runs and 15 more RBI than any other hitter in the IL. With Gomes out nursing his sore shoulder and possibly done for the season, Witt is expected to get a lot of starts as the team’s DH down the stretch.

Devil Rays get righty Meek for Branyan. [MLB]