The Hangover: Is Elijah Dukes Overweight?

• This is why the Rays reporters bug the heck out of us. Here is an article about Elijah Dukes. The article itself is fairly benign. But early in the article Dukes has the following quote…

Hopefully when I get that call saying I’m in the league, I’ll probably be about 220 [pounds] again.

Then the article makes reference to his “245 pound frame”, and then never mentions his weight again. Did Dukes show up to camp out of shape? That’s how we read it. And if that is the case, why isn’t anybody making a bigger deal of this. One of the team’s top prospects, that has a legitimate shot at making the club and he shows up to camp 25 pounds overweight? Once again it looks like we have been duped by the talent that is Elijah Dukes.

• Casey Fossum’s goals for 2007? How about 180 innings and a groin that isn’t sore. Now, we don’t know about the groin. That sounds like a personal problem. But in six major league seasons, Fossum has never pitched more than 162 innings. In 2006, Fossum made 25 starts and only had 130 innings. That’s just over 5 innings per start. Even if he stays healthy for 35 sta….We’re sorry. We had trouble typing that without laughing. Even if he stays healthy for 35 starts, that would be about 175 innings. There is no way Fossum is making 35 starts and he is not getting 180 innings. The best news is that Fossum is the most likely candidate to be traded by the deadline in July.
• Jorge Cantu is saying the same things every player says when they come back from an injury-filled season. He is healthy. He is in great shape. He is ready to get back to doing what he is capable of doing…yada, yada, yada. We’ll see. The Rays are hopeful at best, which explains why they have contingency plans. At least his dad explained to him that he shouldn’t jump in the hole in the road. huh?
• Earlier this week we wondered aloud when Jeff Niemann would make his major league debut. Looks like he could follow a similar path of James Shields who made 10 AAA starts before making his debut at the end of May.
• In the same article is word that B. J. Upton took some turns at second base.
• Shawn Riggans is three years older than Dioner Navarro and he likes him sum fishin’. Speaking of Little Pudge…He is only the fifth catcher in the last 25 years with as much major league catching experience at such a young age. There are some pretty big names on that list. Catcher’s are notorious for developing slowly, especially with the bat. It is the most difficult position to master. That is why Riggans is still considered a prospect at the ripe age of 26. Navarro’s experience will pay dividends down the road.
• Great interview with Rays prospect Jacob McGee. Hard to read that and not salivate just a little. We here at RI always try to temper our excitement when it comes to prospects at lower levels. That’s why Reid Brignac is not ranked higher in our TVI. We have seen too many instances where a top prospect just levels out and fails to progress. But this kid just keeps getting better. This kid is going to be good.
• The Trop is getting new FieldTurf. Early reviews are that the turf slows the ball down which will be good for pitchers, but will cut down on the number of extra base hits. It will be interesting to see if Carl Crawford will still be the king of triples
• We stared at THIS page for a good five minutes trying to figure out why a website with that name was doing a Devil Rays preview.

Jonny Gomes, Meet Kevin Maas

Word has come down that Joe Maddon is no longer considering Jonny Gomes for playing time at first base. Gomes has arrived to Spring Training healthy and strong and Maddon says that makes him an outfielder. Of course somebody should tell Mr. Gomes that, as he apparently didn’t even bring a glove to Spring Training. He had been borrowing Rocco Baldelli’s first baseman’s glove (wait?!? Rocco has a first baseman’s glove?). So the question now becomes, how often will we see Gomes in the lineup? Well, that depends on Mr. Elijah Dukes. If Dukes makes the team as the fourth outfielder, Gomes will almost never see time in the outfield (when not giggling at the picture above, it is clear that Gomes not playing the outfield could be a good thing). Dukes will also command at bats at DH when he is not subbing for one of the Rays uber-stud outfielders. Complicating matters further is the plight of B. J. Upton. Upton is set to play on a regular basis at a number of different positions. On those days, the regular at his position may be worked into the DH spot. We can see Upton getting plenty of starts at second and a few in center, and on many of those days Jorge Cantu and Rocco Baldelli will fill in at DH.

Jonny Gomes is 1-dimensional. He is a power hitter. Given 500 at bats he could easily hit 40 home runs. But he is not a good hitter. This was evident by his performance last year. Yes he was hurt. He had lost his power. A good hitter would have compensated and adjusted his swing. Gomes couldn’t do that. In the end, don’t be surprised if Gomes only gets 250-300 at bats again this year. This is a team that has talent. And this is a team that is deep. There are too many players and not enough at bats. Sorry Mr. Gomes.

The Hangover: The Curse Of New Kids On The Block

• We understand the excitement about the possibility of Edwin Jackson being the 5th starter for the Rays this season. Of course, everybody points to the 3-2 record and 1.60 ERA in the Venezuelan Winter League. The St. Pete Times ran an article on Jackson and his hopes of making the rotation out of Spring Training. They were correct to point out that he has had some control problems in his stint with the Rays. In 2006, he walked 25 in 36.1 innings of work. What they failed to mention is Jackson continued to have control problems in winter ball. Jackson somehow posted an impeccable ERA despite walking 23 batters in 45 innings. In addition, Jackson issued six wild pitches in those games. We beg everyone to temper their excitement. We still have our money on J. P. Howell being named the fifth starter. Jackson may have the inside track on a spot in the rotation if Casey Fossum is not ready for opening day.
• Here is a great photo of a very young Tropicana Field in diapers. We barely recognize it. We are fairly certain that this is a photo from the preparations for the New Kids on the Block concert from the fall of 1990, which amazingly is still the attendance record for the Trop. In the past we have made reference to The Curse of LaMar-Naimoli. But that may have been unjust. Maybe the Curse goes back further. The Curse of the New Kids? (thanks to griff3758)
• Nothing surprising here…Evan Longoria will not be on the opening day major league roster. In fact the only reason he appears to be in Spring Training at all is due to an obligation written into Longoria’s contract by his agent. If the Dirtbag can put up another strong campaign down on the farm in 2007, we would still put it at 50:50 at best for a Longoria sighting at the Trop in September.
• Casey Fossum felt good after his fourth bullpen session. Still no word of whether or not the team is expecting him to be ready for opening day. Fossum is hoping that he will come back stronger from this surgery than he did from the first time his shoulder was worked on. We think it is more likely that the Fossum Flop becomes his only pitch.
• Finally, former Rays prospect Josh Hamilton met with the media yesterday and had his first workout with his new team. It is a little disheartening to see Josh in a Reds uniform.

11 Spring Training Question Marks

The Rays return in 2007 with basically the same lineup that finished the 2006 campaign. That is not necessarily a good thing for a team that lost 101 games, scored the fewest runs and gave up the fourth most runs in the major leagues. What it does offer is a sense of stability and an opportunity for the young players to grow and show that another year of experience and maturity will help them take a step forward. Still, with most of the regular lineup set, there a number of questions concerning the Rays entering Spring Training.

1. Who will be the regular first baseman? First base is the one position that remains without an obvious starter. There are several candidates to fill the very small shoes of the departed Travis Lee who had the worst OPS (.676) of any major league first baseman with at least 300 plate appearances in 2006. The obvious choice is Ty Wigginton who had a breakout season in ’06 with 24 home runs and numerous clutch hits, despite missing 40 games. However, Joe Maddon loves players with positional flexibility and Wiggy is the most flexible on the roster which means he will see plenty of playing time at other positions. Even if he is the regular first baseman, others will also receive playing time there, including Jorge Cantu, Jonny Gomes and Elijah Dukes, none of whom have ever played the position regularly in the past. Still, if Cantu or Dukes step up in Spring Training and show that they can handle the position, they could become the “starter” and Wiggy would be back to his role as super-utility man.
2. Will the Rays buck Major League tradition and keep top prospects on 25-man roster without a regular position? Both B.J. Upton and Elijah Dukes enter Spring Training without a regular position. Upton finished ’06 as the starting third baseman but his glove work was no better than his stint at shortstop. Newly acquired Akinori Iwamura, will likely start the season at third base leaving Upton without a home. Every indication so far is that Joe Maddon and Andrew Friedman will keep Upton on the roster getting him regular at bats at a number of different positions including third base, shortstop, second base and center field. The hope is that Upton will be able to concentrate on his offense while allowing his defense to develop naturally. Dukes is the bigger question mark. It appears that the team would like Dukes to be the fourth outfielder. His ability to play center field and considering the health history of Rocco Baldelli, there may be plenty of at bats there, but he would also see playing time at first base and DH. Friedman has stated that Dukes has little left to prove at the minor league level, which may be true, but the team may also quietly believe that Dukes may be better suited for the more structured atmosphere of a major league clubhouse as well as the close watchful eye of Maddon and the coaches.
3. Who will fill out the starting rotation? The only other regular position that is up for grabs is the fifth spot in the rotation and possibly the fourth. Scott Kazmir is healthy and will resume his spot at the top. His shoulder stiffness in the second half of 2006 may have been a blessing in disguise. Without the injury, Kid K was on pace for 200+ innings which often leads to a fall-off the following season for a young pitcher. The other locks for the rotation appear to be Jae Seo and James Shields. If Casey Fossum is healthy he will be in the rotation and all signs are that he will be. That leaves one spot with a number of candidates, including J.P. Howell, Jason Hammel, Chris Seddon, Jae Kuk Ryu and Edwin Jackson. Our money is on Howell. He seemed to rediscover his fastball late in 2006 and has the biggest upside of the group. The hot candidate at this point is Jackson. Jackson is out of options and will be on the roster. Once a top starting pitcher prospect, Jackson struggled mightily in ’06. However, he is still young (23) and he pitched well in winter ball indicating that his days as a starter may not be over. Still, his biggest problem in ’06 was his control and despite strong overall numbers this winter, he still issued too many walks.
4. What can be expected from Jorge Cantu and Jonny Gomes? Both Jorge Cantu and Jonny Gomes played most of 2006 at less than 100% and the drop-off from their 2005 numbers was dramatic. Cantu enters ’07 healthy and as the starting second baseman but may see time at first base and DH. Gomes will be the regular DH, but unless he can prove he can handle occasional starts at first base, he is likely to lose at bats to other players at DH. Look for both players to rebound in ’07, with Cantu the most likely to approach his ’05 totals. Gomes struggles in ’06 appeared to be due just as much to holes in his swing as to his injured shoulder. Cantu should receive 500+ at bats, but Gomes will more likely only see ~300, especially if Elijah Dukes is on the major league roster. We would be happy if Cantu hits .280-25-90, but don’t expect much more than .240-18-60 from Gomes.
5. Will the Rays trade for more bullpen help? Of all the areas that the Rays could have used an upgrade, the most glaring weakness on the team is the bullpen. Last week the Rays picked up Jae Kuk Ryu for nothing more than a couple of low level prospects. While Ryu will contend for the 5th spot in the rotation, he is more likely destined for the bullpen. The team also signed Scott Dohmann. These moves are the equivalent of spitting on a forest fire. There is some talent in the bullpen, but unless everybody steps up the team will struggle once again late in games. Of course, they could get a big boost if the starting pitchers, who worked the fewest number of innings for any team in baseball, can work deeper into games in ’07. Still, Seth McClung allows too many base runners to be an effective closer and unless the team acquires more help, the Rays will continue to blow games late and will be unable to make a big jump forward in 2007.
6. Is Dioner Navarro ready to step up offensively? Dioner Navarro is the most likely Ray to have an offensive breakout in 2007. We don’t mean to suggest that Navarro is ready to put up Pudge Rodriguez numbers but what about Paul LoDuca numbers with a little more power? Navarro is only 23 and already has parts of two seasons under his belt. In addition he has an excellent contact rate and strikeout to walk ratio for his career (72:51). Those type of numbers from a young player are often good indicators of future success.
   His 2006 numbers projected over an entire season were only .254-12-56. For the first time in his career he enters the season as the clear cut #1 catcher. With his experience and without the pressure, look for Navarro to boost his numbers into the .290-20-80 range.
7. How will Akinori Iwamura’s game translate to the Major Leagues? The only major off-season acquisition came to the Rays via the Japanese posting system. Akinori Iwamura’s signing actually raised more questions than it answered. What position will he play? Where will B. J. Upton find playing time? There appears to be little doubt that Muu-Rah is a major league talent. All indications are that he will be a gold glove caliber third baseman, but his bat may not produce enough runs for the hot corner. He showed signs of power in Japan, but is more likely to be a gap hitter in the U.S. which means second base may be his future home. While we have a general idea what the rest of the lineup is capable of, Muu-Rah is the biggest offensive question mark entering Spring Training.
8. Will 2007 be Rocco Baldelli’s breakout season? 2007 will mark the first healthy Spring Training for Rocco Baldelli since 2004. It seems like he has been a member of the Rays for a decade so it is difficult to remember that he is still only 25 years old. After struggling to find his stroke after missing the first two months of ’06, Rocco hit .323 with 11 home runs in August and September. And while he will never be the base stealing threat many had hoped, he did still 7 bases in the final two months. If Baldelli can stay healthy (a big IF), this could very well be the season that he jumps up and establishes himself as one of the best outfielders in baseball. .300-25-110 with 20 stolen bases is not an absurd expectation.
9. How good can Carl Crawford be? Carl Crawford has four full seasons on his resume and in each of those seasons he has improved his batting average, home runs and RBI with at least 46 stolen bases. The only aspect that may be lacking from his game is power. He did hit 18 home runs in 2006, but many don’t ever expect a player with C.C.’s speed to be a power hitter. And while he is one of the fastest men in baseball, most people that don’t follow the Rays closely don’t realize how big Carl is. At 6’2″ and 220 pounds he has the size to hit for power. And despite playing most of ’06 with a sore wrist, in one stretch he did hit 11 home runs in 30 games. Crawford will likely be the Rays’ #3 hitter in ’07 which means more opportunities to drive in runs and fewer opportunities to steal bases. Crawford’s numbers in ’07 are more likely to look like .315-25-110 with closer to 40 stolen bases. Despite being snubbed last year, he is not likely to be overlooked for the mid-summer classic this season.
10. How good can Delmon Young be? We worried about Young’s transition to the major league level because he is a free-swinger and rarely draws walks. In the minors he had a 284 to 97 strikeout to walk ratio and those numbers were worse with the Rays (24:1). Still, for such a free-swinger, we saw an amazingly patient hitter. Pitchers regularly pitched him away and time after time he rocketed line drives to right field. Still, that translated to only three home runs in 126 at bats despite hitting .316. He also only had 14 home runs in 570 AAA at bats. For all the talk of this can’t-miss prospect and his impressive debut in ’06, many have noted the lack of home runs at the AAA and major league levels. Rest assured, the power will develop. Those that saw Delmon regularly at Durham noted that as a line drive hitter, he would have hit many more home runs if the Durham ballpark did not have such a high wall in left field. We have never seen such a patient and intelligent hitter at such a young age. Look for Young to start the ’07 season much like ’06, taking what pitchers give him. The home runs will come as he becomes more comfortable.
11. When will Jeff Niemann make his major league debut? The Rays are desperate for a #2 starter to compliment Scott Kazmir and once again it looks like Jeff Niemann may be that pitcher. After missing the fist half of 2006 following minor shoulder surgery, Niemann returned and dominated at the AA-level. Nobody doubts that Niemann has major league caliber stuff but at this point the team wants to make sure he has rediscovered his mechanics, especially the touch on his breaking balls. If Niemann dominates in Spring Training, it will be tempting to give him the 5th spot in the rotation, but the team will be patient and send him to Durham for 10-12 starts with a mid-season promotion in mind. Look for Niemann to be throwing from the Tropicana mound by July.