Archive for June, 2007

Down On The Farm: Chad Orvella Continues His Resurgence

June 26, 2007

Durham 8, Richmond 5. Jae Kuk Ryu gave up 4 runs in 5.2 innings and but picked up his 2nd win in 5 starts. His ERA is now 4.37. Chad Orvella allowed only 1 walk in the 9th inning to pick up his 8th save. In 6 appearances since returning to Durham, Orvella has allowed only 1 hit and 2 walks in 6.2 innings, while striking out 7. He has not allowed a run. Brent Butler went 2-5 and hit his 3rd home run while driving in 3. Ben Zobrist was 2-4 with a double and his 3rd stolen base.

Mississippi 13, Montgomery 6. Derek Feldkamp gave up 7 runs in the first inning. Reid Brignac hit his 8th home run and drove in 2. Evan Longoria was 0-4 and struck out twice.

Sarasota 12, Vero Beach 10. Matt Walker gave up 7 runs (3 earned) in 3.1 innings. He struck out 6 and walked 2. Aaron Sisk was 3-4 with 2 doubles and a home run. He drove in 5. Rhyne Hughes was 2-5 and hit his 9th home run. Hughes is hitting .343.

Staten Island 7, Hudson Valley 3.

Elizabethton 20, Princeton 6
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What Do You Like Better..Christmas Or Trading Season?

June 25, 2007

We are now only a little over two months from the trading deadline, but it is never too early to speculate on who the Devil Rays will move before July 31st. This past off-season, the Rays were expected to big players in the trade market with several of their young players rumored to be on the move to any of a number of different teams. When the dust settled, Rocco Baldelli, Carl Crawford, BJ Upton and Elijah Dukes were all still members of the team and only two minor trades for Brendan Harris and Jae Kuk Ryu were made (Brendan Harris was considered a minor acquisition at the time).

The hesitancy this past winter should not carry over to this season. Expect the Rays to be very active in the next two months and this upcoming off-season. And unlike seasons past, any trades made this season will not involve dumping free agents-to-be for minor league prospects that are 2-3 years away. Without any veterans with expiring contracts, there are a handful of veterans they may choose to move, but all are signed for 2008 or have team options at relatively cheap prices. In addition, the team will be looking for major league talent or players that are very close to being ready for the big leagues.

While the focus will undoubtedly be on acquiring major league-ready pitching, the team will be more willing to accept hitting talent this season. With a number of top hitting prospects already playing at the Trop, the pendulum of talent has shifted to the pitching side as the farm system is heavy with major league pitching prospects.

So today let’s speculate on who could be moved and why. We are laying odds on which Devil Rays are most likely to be moved before July 31...

Elijah Dukes 1:1
Before this week teams may have been holding tight and hoping the Rays would just release Elijah Dukes. That move appears to be dead and any team that is interested in Dukes will now have to reconsider what they would be willing to part with for the 5-tool talent and potential future all-star. Dukes can be had for cheap, but he won’t be free. If the Rays trade Dukes now, they will be lucky to get a decent relief pitcher for him which about the same as trading in a brand new BMW with a 2 flat tires for a used Taurus with a clean bill of health. But in the end it is our feeling that the Rays front office has had enough and there seems to be just enough interest out there from other teams that somebody may up the ante just enough to tempt the Rays and take a chance on either the next Lawrence Phillips or the next Gary Sheffield.

Al Reyes 3:2
The Rays have an option year on Reyes for 2008 at $1 million but can be as high as $2.5 million with incentives. For a top-tier closer that is a bargain. But Reyes will be highly sought after this July by contenders that are all looking for bullpen help. How far are the Rays willing to push a relief pitcher with two Tommy John surgeries and who will be 38 in 2008? Chances are not very far. His value will never be higher and while the thought of a bullpen without Reyes in August and September is scary, look for Reyes to bring the Rays back a solid young pitching prospect.

Casey Fossum 2:1
The Rays also have an option on Fossum for 2008 at a relatively cheap price of $3 million. However, there doesn’t appear to be a spot for Fossum on the 20o8 roster and while $3 million is cheap for a lefty starter, it is not what the Rays want to pay a lefty specialist out of the ‘pen. Fossum’s demotion to the bullpen most likely increased his value to the Rays. If he can show in the next two months that he can consistently get out lefties, some team will roll the dice and toss the Rays a AAA pitcher for a lefty that can work as a specialist out of the ‘pen and can also fill in as an emergency starter down the stretch.

Ty Wigginton 3:1
Wiggy is an interesting case. He has now proven that 2006 was not a fluke. He is a consistent bat that has proven to be a clutch hitter when it matters most. He also has exceptional positional flexibility and has started games this season at first, third and second. Arbitration eligible, Wiggy makes $2.7 million this season and will likely command $3-3.5 million in 2008. With the emergence of Carlos Pena, Wiggy is now expendable and would make a perfect fit for the Twins who are looking for an upgrade for Nick Punto at third. Wiggy would also free up a roster spot for the Twins as they are a rare team that carries three catchers and Wiggy could serve as the emergency third string catcher. He is also the type of player that the Twins love. A team player that will do whatever he is asked to do to help the club win. The Twins appear to have their collective sights on Mike Lowell of the Red Sox at this moment, but if that falls through they are likely to re-address Wigginton. The Yankees could also be an option, but if George Steinbrenner is involved it might not happen as King George would never take a chance on helping the Rays.

Carlos Pena 5:1
The odds are about 3:2 that the Rays would move Pena or Wigginton. It is just a matter of which one at this point. The Rays control Pena for two more seasons, but his arbitration case this off-season will give him a large raise in pay. Finally emerging as the great hitter that many had projected, the Rays will be willing to pay a higher salary for the next two seasons if they believe that this recent surge is not a fluke. If they think he is peaking, they may decide to sell high and a team like the Yankees that is looking for an upgrade at first base have some solid pitching prospects.

Jorge Cantu 10:1
Cantu…Cantu…Cantu…This is a player the Rays would love to move but it doesn’t look like they will find any buyers. It is not a good sign when BJ Upton goes on the DL and the team does not even have enough confidence in Cantu’s defensive or offensive abilities to give him any starts at second base in Upton’s absence. So right now he is a first baseman with no experience at first base, that may or may not be able to hit major league pitching. If Cantu is moved, he won’t bring much back in return.

Rocco Baldelli 30:1
Despite his continued struggles with hamstring injuries, teams are likely to approach the Rays and see how much it will cost to acquire the center fielder. Hamstring injuries are something that a player is capable of over-coming and Rocco showed in the second half of 2006 that he is still a formidable force when he is healthy. If Rocco was healthy and if Elijah Dukes wasn’t such a mischievous badger, this number would be much lower. But if we know one thing about the Rays front office, it is that they are smart businessmen and trading Rocco now is not a smart business move. His value could not be any lower unless he decides to send Joe Maddon a picture of a gu
n and/or impregnates Carl Crawford. The Rays are more likely to work with Baldelli to change his running style and improve his hamstrings and wait for him to once again be the great center fielder everybody knows he can be. Then again, the Red Sox are probably secretly drooling over the New England native with the light complexion and good looks, that would be an instant star in Beantown. If the Red Sox do try to acquire Rocco, it is more likely to happen in the off-season, rather than risk inserting an injury-prone player into the middle of a world series run.

The Hangover: Edwin Jackson Could Be Key To Chasing Charlie Hough

June 25, 2007


Devil Rays 9, Dodgers 4.
Early on, it looked like yet another typical performance from Edwin Jackson. After allowing 4 hits (including a home run) and 2 runs in the top of the first, Jackson settled down and held the Dodgers to 5 hits and a walk over the next 5 innings, and did not allow a run. It was not a great performance. The Rays should be able to expect more than just 6 innings and 89 pitches from a 23-year old that appears to be pitching well. However, Jackson was good enough to pick up his first win since 2005 and his first win as a member of the Devil Rays.

And while it was not a great performance it was all that the Rays need from a 5th starter. If Jackson can take the ball every 5th day and give the team 6 innings and hold the opposition to 3 runs or less, that should be good enough for the Rays to win half of the time and that is all you can ever hope to expect from a 5th starter. So maybe Jackson is good enough for the back end of the rotation. As long as he keeps the number of implosions to a minimum and begins to show progress towards becoming some semblance of the pitcher some seem to think he can be, then Jackson will remain in the rotation and Jason Hammel better get used to his role in the bullpen.

After winning 2 of 3 from the Dodgers over the weekend, the Devil Rays are now 14-12 since May 27 and are 4-3-2 in their last 9 series. Don’t look now folks, but the Devil Rays are a competitive team. The Charlie Hough Line is still within shouting distance, but the Rays will have a tough time getting any closer over the next 11 games, with 4 at the Trop against the White Sox, 4 on the road at Cleveland followed by 3 in Boston. Compounding the difficulty of this portion of the schedule is that the Rays are 3 games into a stretch in which they have 17 straight games without an off-day, the last 10 of which will be on the road. The only benefit is that the Rays will end the first half of the season on the road in Kansas City, with an opportunity to enter the all-star break on a positive note.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA

Down On The Farm: Jason Pridie And Fernando Perez May Soon Pick Up Slack In Center Field

June 25, 2007

Durham 4, Richmond 1. Jeff Niemann was charged with 1 run in 6.1 innings. He allowed 6 hits and 1 walk while striking out 3 for his 8th win of the year. Niemann did not allow a run in the first 6 innings and was pulled after one out in the 7th inning with the bases loaded. Jason Pridie was 2-4 with two singles. Wes Bankston was 2-4.

Montgomery 7, Mississippi 0. Chris Mason retired the first 10 batters he faced and finished with a complete game 3-hit shutout. He struck out 6 and walked 1 for his 10th win of the year. His ERA now sits at 2.59. Evan Longoria was 3-4 with a double, 3 RBI and 2 runs scored. Reid Brignac was 1-5.

Sarasota 9, Vero Beach 6. Mike Wlodarczyk gave up 6 runs and was pulled after just 2 innings.

Columbus 11, Savannah 1. Heath Rollins gets back to his winning ways after a tough stretch with 6 innings of 1-run ball. He struck out 5 and walked 1 to improve to 7-3. Desmond Jennings was 3-5 to raise his average to .304 and scored 2 runs.

Hudson Valley 5, Brooklyn 1
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Princeton 2, Bristol 1
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NOTES FROM DOWN ON THE FARM

The Hangover: Elijah Dukes Is Gone, But Could Return

June 23, 2007

Dodgers 6, Devil Rays 3.
It was like David Chase wrote the most recent episode of Elijah Dukes’ career. It just went blank and nobody is quite sure what happened…

In the end there was an option that nobody saw and it was absolutely the right move by the Devil Rays organization. On Friday, the Rays optioned Elijah Dukes to Vero Beach, but Dukes will not report to the class-A affiliate. Rather, Dukes was placed on the temporary inactive list.

“What this allows us to do, and Elijah to do, is take some time away from the field and to focus on his personal life, re-evaluate everything, and, most importantly, allow him an opportunity away from the spotlight,” Rays executive vice president Andrew Friedman said. “He has accepted this task and we’re very encouraged by it.”

The move allows the team to hold on to Dukes without the continued distractions to the major league team an without having to dump Dukes and his problems on a minor league affiliate. The only other options for the team would have been to release Dukes or send him to another organization and receive very little in return. The Rays could have also suspended Dukes, but that move would have surely been challenged by the player’s union which would have just kept Dukes in the newspapers for all the wrong reasons.

This was not a “spineless” move as suggested by John Romano of the St. Pete Times. Rather, this was a business decision. Dukes is off the team. He is stashed away indefinitely in a back pocket. It gives Dukes a chance to get his personal life in order. It gives the team a chance to move on. And in due time, memories of these problems will reside and hopefully Dukes value to the team and potential value to other teams will be reestablished.

There is no advantage to the team in releasing Dukes over the move they made. If the Rays released Dukes there is a very good chance that another team reaps the benefits without any compensation to the Rays and without any of the headaches that the Rays and their fans had to deal with. If any team deserves to benefit from his talent it is the Devil Rays for all that they have had to put up with.

Elijah Dukes owes the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Elijah Dukes owes us. He would never be able to repay his debts if he was helping another franchise win baseball games.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA

  • BJ Upton is likely to be the everyday center fielder once he returns from the disabled list. Upton would remain there until Rocco Baldelli returns from his injury and even then will likely remain the team’s part-time center fielder for the rest of the season. This move means that Ty Wigginton is likely to remain the team’s most-days second baseman. While it is a move normally made during spring training, it will be interesting to see if the team works Akinori Iwamura into a few games as a second baseman down the road this year.
  • An in-depth look at Elijah Dukes’ “career.

Down On The Farm: Who Is This Doug Waechter You Speak Of?

June 23, 2007

Durham 1, Richmond 0. Jae Seo piched 7 innings of 1-hit shutout ball. He struck out 5, walked 1. Chad Orvella allowed only his second base runner, a walk, in one inning of work to pick up his 7th save. Joel Guzman was 2-3 with a double and Ben Zobrist was 2-5. Brent Butler drove in the only run with a single in the 8th.

Montgomery 10, Mobile 0. Mike Prochaska pitched a complete game 6-hit shutout. He struck out 6 and walked 1. Evan Longoria was 2-4 with his league-leading 17th home run and 3 RBI. He is second in the Southern League with 54 RBI and second with a .940 OPS. Reid Brignac was 1-5 and stole his 9th base.

Vero Beach 6, St. Lucie 3. Jake McGee struck out 6 and walked 1 in 6 innings. He allowed 3 runs to move his record to 5-2. Rhyne Hughes continues his hit season, going 3-4 with his 8th home and 4 RBI. He is hitting Florida State League best .342, 17 points higher than the next best hitter.

Columbus 17, Savannah 2
. Woods Fines allowed 2 runs in 6 innings for his 5th home run. Desmond Jennings had 4 of Columbus’ 18 hits, including his 11th double, 5th home run and 4 RBI. He also stole his 29th stolen base good for 3rd in the SAL.

Brooklyn 3, Hudson Valley 0
. Doug Waechter began a rehab assignment with the Renegades and gave up 2 runs in 3 innings. He did not strike out or walk a batter.

Kingsport 6, Princeton 0
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The Hangover: Dioner Navarro Is Still The Answer At Catcher

June 22, 2007


Devil Rays (off-day)
With the off-day yesterday, we are going to try something different today. We feel like we have been rather harsh on a handful of players recently and we are not usually that negative. In our defense we supported Edwin Jackson for a long time even though his numbers were just as horrific as Jae Seo and Casey Fossum. And while we have taken some shots at Elijah Dukes, whether they be direct or indirect, we have not been nearly as hard as many people have been and if you pinned us down we would choose to keep Dukes, if only because we hate selling low.

So today we are going to try and put a positive spin on somebody that has been the subject of much bashing from Devil Rays fans. Yes folks, we are here to tell you why Dioner Navarro is still the answer at catcher…Stop laughing. We are serious. And yes, we understand that to many of you this is akin to saying that the Rays should bring back Travis Lee, but bare with us for a few moments.

Our biggest argument is that Navarro is still young. He is still only 23 and if he hadn’t been top prospect, he would probably still be sitting in some team’s minor league system. Catchers are notoriously slow developers with the bat. While other position players spend hours upon hours everyday in the minors honing their swing, teams are more concerned with developing a catcher defensively and worry about their offense later.

Defensively, Navarro is above-average. While you would like a higher caught-stealing rate (9 of 40) he excels at almost every other aspect of defense. Despite being a rather portly fella, Navi is extremely light on his feet. Next time a pitcher throws a ball in the dirt watch how easily Navi moves to block the pitch. Most catchers flail in attempts to block wild pitches. Navi moves with no more effort than as if the pitcher had rolled the ball to him.

Navarro only has 3 passed balls on the season, but even more indicative is the number of wild pitches thrown by the Rays pitching staff. It is no surprise that the Rays are among the league leaders in walks allowed. In fact they rank third in the AL. We aren’t making any bold statements that the Rays staff throws a lot of pitches out of the strike zone. Yet, the Rays are only 10th in the AL in wild pitches thrown. And while it may be easy to block a wild pitch thrown by Fossum which is traveling 12 mph, the Rays do have a number of hard throwers. The fact that the Rays are not near the top of the league in wild pitches needs to be attributed at least in part to Navarro.

Offensively, Navarro has been atrocious. He is hitting .170 with no home runs and only 10 RBI. He has a .241 OBP and a .240 SLG. Only numbers like those could make Buddy Biancalana look like an all-star.

OK…deep breath...you may want to sit down for the next part.

Dioner Navarro is not hitting as poorly as the numbers indicate…

First of all he has 29 strike outs and only 15 walks or approximately a 2:1 ratio. Before this season his ratio was 62:51, or much closer to 1:1. A 1:1 ratio is an exceptional ratio for such a young hitter and is usually a sign of good things to come. Why the drop-off this season? We don’t have an answer, other than to say that it appears that he is in a protracted slump. And yet, his strike out totals are not that high. He is only 9th on the team in K’s, and you would expect more strike outs from a player that was mired in such a deep slump.

So then what is going on when he does make contact? When Navi makes contact, his batting average is .204 which is still horrible. But what is intriguing is how often he hits the ball hard. In fact Navi hits a line drive 15.6% of the time. Using a formula devised by the folks over at the Hardball Times, a line drive percentage of 15.6% means a player should hit .276 on balls he makes contact with.

OK, that’s great, but what does it mean. Well, he is in a slump, but a good chunk of that slump is just good ole’ fashioned bad luck. Dioner Navarro appears to be hitting the ball well. It’s just that he isn’t hitting ’em where they ain’t. Eventually those line drives will start finding holes, and Navarro’s numbers will improve. He’s not going to hit .330. At least not anytime soon, but he is swinging the bat like a .260 hitter, and with his defense that is good enough.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA

It is difficult [to be patient]…At the same time, you look back and you’re like, “OK, I’m going to keep doing what I’ve been doing the whole time. That’s what got me here.” That’s kind of the situation where I’m at right now. I’m kind of stubborn a little bit…Now when I want to take the next step and get better, it involves something like this.

Down On The Farm: Josh Butler Has Solid Vero Beach Debut

June 22, 2007

Durham 5, Scranton 1. Mitch Talbot struck out 6 and walked none in 6.1 innings. He gave up 1 run on 4 hits. Chad Orvella struck out 2 in 1.2 perfect innings. Since his return to Durham, Orvella has struck out 7 and only allowed 1 hit and no walks in 4.2 innings. Joel Guzman was 1-4 and hit his 3rd home run in the past 4 games. He now has 11 on the season. Justin Ruggiano was 2-5 with an RBI and Ben Zobrist was 0-2 with 3 walks.

Mobile 10, Montgomery 4. Jonathon Barratt gave up 5 runs (4 earned) in 4.1 innings. He allowed 4 hits and 4 walks. Jason Pridie was 3-5 with his 16th double and his 7th triple. He now has 27 extra base hits on the season and is hitting .290. Evan Longoria was 1-5 with his 51st RBI, but committed his 9th RBI.

Vero Beach 3, St. Lucie 1. Josh Butler pitched 7 strong innings in his first start since being promoted from low-A Columbus. He struck out 4 and allowed 6 hits, 1 walk and 1 run. Sergio Pedroza was 2-4 with his 7th home run and Erold Andrus added two hits, including a triple and his 28th RBI. Rhyne Hughes was 1-4 with his 38th RBI. He is hitting .335 on the year.

Savannah 3, Columbus 2. Wade Townsend gave up just 2 unearned runs in 5 innings. He struggled with his control, walking 4 and only striking out 2. He now has an ERA of 4.40 on the year. Ryan Royster was 2-4 to raise his average to .305. He also drove in his 41st RBI.

Aberdeen 6, Hudson Valley 5
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Kingston 7, Princeton 6
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NOTES FROM DOWN ON THE FARM

  • Evan Longoria and Jeff Niemann will represent the US squad in the Futures Game at PacBell park during the major league baseball all-star game festivities. Las year, Juan Salas was named to the World roster.
  • Reid Brignac was given the night off due to “soreness” after several minor scrapes in the previous game.
  • Joel Guzman credits his recent surge to hitting coach Gary Gaetti and a change in his swing.

The Hangover: James Shields’ Growing Pains

June 21, 2007


Diamondbacks 7, Devil Rays 4.
James Shields was roughed up in his second straight start. As has been the case all season long, Shields was susceptible to the long ball allowing two home runs. The difference in the last two starts is that the home runs came at inopportune times, early in the game and with runners on base.

We have all heard about the amazing change-up that James Shields throws. The national media has even referred to it as one of the best change-ups in baseball if not one of the best pitches in baseball. When thrown correctly and thrown to the right spot it is as nasty as it comes. The problem that Shields faces is when the pitch does not have the proper sink to it or when Shields leaves the pitch up in the zone, it is basically a batting practice fastball. He can get away with that when the bases are empty or when he is leading 5-1.

In the third inning, Chad Tracy hit a 1-1 pitch over the right-field fence to give the D-Backs a 3-0 lead. In this case, Shields got the change up in, but he left it up and when it started to sink, it ended up right in the wheel-house for a left-handed hitter. An 87 mph pitch, down and in to a lefty is a strike, but often it is a 370 foot strike down the right field line. In the fourth inning Shields just left a fastball up to Eric Byrnes when Dioner Navarro was looking for a pitch out of the zone low and away. If you slow the pitch down, you can actually see the disgust on Shields’ face before Byrnes has even finished his swing.

We are not predicting the Apocalypse for James Shields. Quite the opposite. He will be fine. All great pitchers throw bad pitches. Shields just needs to learn that a change-up with nobody on is a lot different than a change-up with 2 runners on in a scoreless game. He will learn to bear down in the more crucial situations. He will learn that if he is going to miss, he needs to miss down…not up. James Shields is a young pitcher. These are just the growing pains that we all must suffer along with him.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA

*May have only seemed like 173 losses.

Down On The Farm: Wade Davis Strong In AA Debut

June 21, 2007

Scranton 7, Durham 4. After two straight strong outings by Jae Kuk Ryu, he was knocked around in his latest outing. Ryu was pulled after allowing the first two batters of the 5th inning to reach base. He is on a strict 75-pitch limit as he is converted back to being a starting pitcher. Both of those runners would come around to score and making 4 runs total charged to Ryu. He struck out 5 and walked 2. Seth McClung did not allow a hit or walk in his one inning of work, but never comfortable without runners on base, he did hit a batter…Ben Zobrist was 1-3 with his 5th home run. He is hitting .234. Justin Ruggiano was 0-2 with a walk and a sac fly. Wes Bankston was 0-2 with a sac fly. He is hitting .247 on the year. Joel Guzman was 0-4 after homering in two straight games. He is also hitting .247.

Montgomery 4, Mobile 3. Wade Davis made his AA debut last night. In 6.1 innings he struck out 9 and did not walk a batter. He gave up 2 runs (1 earned) on 7 hits. Davis gave up one run in the first on a single following a passed ball. He would only allow three base runners in the next five innings. In the 7th, he gave up a lead off triple and was pulled after retiring the next batter on a ground ball. He left the game with Montgomery leading 3-1. Nick DeBarr would strike out the first batter he faced, but then surrendered a 2-run home run. Patrick Breen won the game in the bottom of the 9th with a bases loaded sac fly. Reid Brignac was 2-4 with 2 RBI. Evan Longoria was 1-4 and is hitting .289.

Hudson Valley 8, Aberdeen 3.

NOTES FROM DOWN ON THE FARM

  • Wade Davis’ fastball was still in the mid-90s in the 7th inning and topped out at 97 during a 4th inning strikeout.
  • The Princeton Devil Rays begin their season tonight. The D-Rays roster will include this year’s third-round pick Nick Barnese, a high school pitcher and outfielder Dustin Biell, the Rays fifth-round selection. In addition, the roster will feature the sons of two former major leaguers. Pitcher Tyree Hayes is the son of Charlie Hayes and Chris Andujar is the son of Juaquin Andujar.
  • On his way out the door Wade Davis picked up his third pitcher-of-the-week award from the FSL.
  • BJ Upton will likely begin a rehab assignment next week when Vero Beach visits Tampa.

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