11 Questions For Chad Orvella

Chad Orvella was recently sent to AAA Durham after 10 appearances with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. In only his 4th full season as a pro, Orvella has spent parts of each of the last three seasons with the Devil Rays, but has yet to achieve the same level of success he has experienced at the minor league level. In 169 innings as a minor leaguer, Orvella has a 1.49 ERA and has recorded 241 strikeouts and only 33 walks which equate to 12.8 K/9 and 7.3 K:BB. Those numbers are incredible at any level. Still, Orvella has struggled at the major league level. In 82.1 innings he has an ERA of 5.79 and has only recorded 66 strikeouts with 53 walks. His rates at the major league level have dropped to 7.2 K/9 and 1.2 K:BB. Since being back in Durham, he is back to his dominating ways, with 5 strikeouts and no walks in 3 appearances (3 ip). He has allowed only 1 hit.

In order to better understand the struggles of the young relief pitcher, we emailed him some questions. He emailed us some answers…

[our thoughts on Chad’s comments follow the Q&A]

1. You were used sparingly as a pitcher at NC State. When did you first realize that your best chance of making it to the majors was as a pitcher and were you surprised that the Devil Rays drafted you with the intent of making you a full-time pitcher?

CO: When I went to the cape cod league I hit about .180 and realized I should probably get on the hill and scouts saw that I had a good arm and asked me to throw at a practice at NC State.

2. In only your fourth season as a full-time pitcher, you are still very early in your development. Explain how you work on your mechanics. Do you watch video of yourself or do you rely exclusively on the advice of the coaching staff?

CO: I’ve just started to watch video. It’s tough to work with a coaching staff because I’ve had so many different pitching coaches over the past four seasons. The one that’s seen me the most is Xavier Hernandez (Bulls current pitching coach) so if he has any advice I’ll listen to him.

3. This season you have worked with both Jim Hickey and Xavier Hernandez. How do their coaching styles differ? How are they similar?

CO: I think both of their styles are to be aggressive and be the aggressor as the pitcher. I haven’t really been able to work with Hickey too much but he seems like a good buy.

4. For a young pitcher that has bounced back and forth between the minors and the majors and from pitching coach to pitching coach, how do you adjust to the different environments and the many voices offering advice? How much do you lean on others besides your current pitching coach (other pitchers, catchers, former coaches, etc.)?

CO: You try to take a little advice from everybody and make it your own. Use what you can. Everybody has an opinion.

5. Dioner Navarro and Shawn Riggans are both talented catchers, but both are young. How important is it to a young pitcher and a young pitching staff to have a veteran like Josh Paul, in Tampa, or Raul Casanova earlier this season and Michel Hernandez now in Durham?

CO: I think it’s important because they may know some of the big league hitters, but having a catcher like Shawn Riggans, where he’s seen me throw for four years, I think is more important than having a veteran catcher that doesn’t know you at all.

6. After your most recent demotion, you once again were back to dominating hitters. It was reported that you discovered a flaw in the mechanics. If that was the case, what was the flaw and how was it discovered?

CO: Jamie Shields brought up an idea that my delivery has changed in the past couple years. A few years ago I used to squat down really low, in fact, the guys used to make fun of me because it looked like I was sitting in a chair. But I’ve gotten away from that and now my command has gotten worse. I’ve gone back to looking like I was crouching in a chair and it seems to be working.

7. When you do tweak your mechanics, how is the adjustment? Is it something that you are comfortable with and notice the improvement immediately or does it take getting used to?

CO: When I made this adjustment it was pretty quick. It’s just getting comfortable with it again. The biggest difference I see is in my off-speed stuff and how the hitters are reacting to that.

8. Have the Devil Rays indicated to you what you need to improve in order to be more consistent at the Major League level?

CO: They’ve just said that I need to be more consistent. I’ve always had a lot of success at Triple-A and throughout the minor leagues. They know I’ll do well here, but they’re sending me here to get more confidence.

9. In the minor leagues you have posted some prodigious strikeout totals and incredible strikeout to walk ratios. While it is not surprising that your strikeout totals have fallen at the major league level, it is surprising that you have struggled with your control. How would you explain the stark difference in your numbers from one level to the next?

CO: The strike zone is a little different. Calls that I might get in the minor leagues I don’t get up there. I think it just goes back to maintaining my aggressive style while in the big leagues and I’ve gotten away from that.

10. How would you describe pitching at the Trop? As a pitcher do you like pitching indoors? Does pitching so many games indoors make it difficult to adjust to games on the road? Would you consider it a hitters’ park or does it play fair?

CO: Pitching at the Trop is a little different. I don’t think anyone loves playing inside, but it’s something you get used to. It plays fair.

11. Who is one player on the Durham Bulls roster (pitcher or fielder) that may fly a bit under the prospect radar, but whom you think is on the verge of breaking out and will be a successful big leaguer?

CO: Jeff Ridgway. I think he’s got the stuff to be a very good big league pitcher. It’s just being consistent like everybody else. He’s on the verge of breaking out.

[Rays Index] We have been following Orvella’s progress for several years now and it is easy to forget that he has only been a pitcher for about five years. Also, looking back, Chad’s dominance at the minor league level may not have been the best scenario for his development.
While it gave him confidence to succeed, it may have also provided a false sense of security. It is telling that a young pitcher still learning the craft is just now beginning to use video. That indicates, that up to this most recent struggle, he has relied completely on natural ability, and never learned how to work through adversity.

It is also worth noting that Orvella was on the major league roster for over a month and yet he says that he really hasn’t yet had a chance to work with Jim Hickey. We are no experts, but if a guy goes from 12 Ks per 9 innings to 7 and all of the sudden can’t find the strike zone after having impeccable control in the minors, the first thing we would do is dust off some videotape of Orvella from 2005 or 2006 and see if anything had changed. It is amazing that James Shields was the only person that noticed a change in Orvella’s mechanics.

Many, us included, have wondered aloud if Chad Orvella is a classic AAAA pitcher, with the ability to dominate the minor leagues, but without the stuff to succeed in the majors. Still, his minor league numbers are too impressive to write off and we need to remember that he is still learning how to pitch, how to succeed and how to handle adversity. If Al Reyes is traded before July 31 as we believe he will be, look for Orvella to emerge as either the Rays’ closer or 8th inning set-up guy in 2008.

The Hangover: Devil Rays Blow Yet Another Big Lead

Diamondbacks 10, Devil Rays 8.
Remember the second moment that we were bracing for? Al Reyes blowing a save was that moment. We were starting to get a little too comfortable with Reyes at the back end of the bullpen. No closer is perfect and Reyes proved that last night surrendering a 2-run home run in the 9th inning to tie the game, and another in the 10th inning to give the D-Backs the victory.

We understand that the bullpen was thin and that only Brian Stokes was left, but we are big believers that once a closer blows the lead that they need to be removed from the game. Closers pitch on adrenaline more than any other pitcher and quite often once that lead is surrendered, there seems to be a little air that is let out of the balloon and they don’t pitch with the same intensity. Joe Maddon was worried about the game going deep into extra innings. A manager can’t think that way. If the game does go deep you worry about that when it happens. If Stokes tires in the 12th inning, then go to Josh Wilson if you have to, but a manager can’t worry about the 12th inning in the 10th inning. Most 10th innings never turn in to 12th innings.

On a related note, most teams will not blow a 5-run lead all season. The Devil Rays have now blown three 5-run leads in the month of June. If they win those three games, the Devil Rays are 34-35, only 1 game below The Charlie Hough Line, in third place of the AL East, only 6.5 games back in the wild card race and only one James Shields win tonight away from positive national news coverage…for once.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• It’s Wednesday, soooo…Alex we’ll take “Elijah Dukes is a mischievous badger” for $500…If you haven’t heard the radio “interview” with Mr. Dukes from yesterday, The Big Lead has it in all it’s glory.
• Not surprisingly the Rays front office is frustrated by the distractions caused both directly and indirectly by Elijah Dukes.
• It seems that every story we read mentions three options for the Devil Rays in regards to Elijah Dukes. They could trade him, release him or demote him to the minors. We would be absolutely shocked if the third option occurred, even though that may be the one the team prefers. The Rays and Bulls already have a shaky relationship after all the trouble that occurred there in 2006. With the current agreement between the two clubs set to expire following the 2008 season, the Rays are not about to rock that boat, and sending Dukes to Durham would do just that. Dukes was a major player in the problems that occurred in Durham in 2006 and his most recent transgressions are not going to endear him to the team management, coaching staff or fans any further. A demotion would certainly be viewed by the team and the fans as the Devil Rays “dumping their problem” on the Durham Bulls. While the team may want to do that, whether it be as a punishment or to get his head straightened out, we can’t see the Rays risking their already tumultuous relationship with the Durham Bulls. If they did, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays would almost certainly be looking for a new AAA affiliate in 2009.
• Joe Henderson doesn’t have any interest in seeing Elijah Dukes sent to Durham. He wants Dukes out of the organization and he wants him gone yesterday.
• Marc Lancaster reports that Elijah Dukes has told the Devil Rays that he feels he would be better off playing someplace other than his hometown.
• In related news, an online poll indicates that 78% of Devil Rays fans are sick of reading about Elijah Dukes and 100% of the writers at Rays Index are sick of writing about him.
• blah blah blah Rocco Baldelli blah blah blah hamstring blah blah significant setback blah blah frustrated blah blah.
• Rocco Baldelli’s latest “tweaking” could cost him another month on the DL.
• We were a little surprised that Joe Maddon’s favorite football team is the Arizona Cardinals. We are not surprised that Papa Joe thinks that the 5-11 team is on the verge of winning the Super Bowl. In other news, Joe Maddon thinks Dennis Kucinich will win the presidential election in 2008 and Harvard is only a decent kicker away from winning the BCS next season.

The Hangover: Edwin Jackson Is The Big Tease

Devil Rays 10, D-Backs 2.
Last night was as frustrating as a 10-2 win can ever be. Edwin Jackson pitched 4.2 innings before being removed from the game for precautionary reasons. Jackson was experiencing cramping in the index finger of his pitching hand. Last night was frustrating because on the surface it looked like a strong pitching performance by Jackson, who was 1 out from his victory since 2005. He was 1 out away from his first victory with the Devil Rays.

But this outing was anything but a strong performance. Jackson did hold the D-Backs to 2 runs in his 4+ innings of work. However, he surrendered 4 hits and 4 other batters reached base via the walk. Jackson needed 92 pitches in less than 5 innings and only 50 were thrown for strikes. Assuming that Jackson’s injury is not serious, he likely pitched just well enough to keep his spot in the rotation. But please don’t tell us that it was a “positive outing” or a “step forward” in his development.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• What would be less surprising…Elijah Dukes makes news for something off the field or Rocco Baldelli re-injuring his hamstring? Let’s see…today is Tuesday…Alex we’ll take Bubble Boy’s hamstring for $500…Baldelli tweaked his hamstring while batting last night in Durham. Rocco was originally scheduled to come off the DL and rejoin the Rays on Friday. That plan seems unlikely to happen now.
• Casey Fossum believes he is starting to regain some of his velocity in the bullpen, in hopes of returning to the rotation.
• Gotham Baseball reports that the Yankees are pursuing a first baseman and they have their eyes on Carlos Pena. The Devil Rays may not be able to acquire Tyler Clippard but they may be interested in Sean Henn. Henn is a lefty that the Yankees have used in middle relief this season, but was used exclusively as a starter in the minors. If Pena is too expensive the Yankees may be willing to settle for Ty Wigginton.
• What grade would you give the Devil Rays so far in 2007? Despite being on pace for a franchise record 72 wins, we still get a sense that the team is underperforming. We’d say a C- is about right.
• It is our belief that a manager gets too much credit when the team is doing well and too much criticism when the team is struggling.
• Joe Maddon and his longtime girlfriend are now engaged. Let’s assume they get married following the 2008 season. Then allow for one year as newlyweds. That means by 2010, Papa Joe will start acting more like Lou Piniella.

Down On The Farm: No Help On Horizon In Durham Bullpen

Scranton 7, Durham 5. Tony Peguero made his 3rd start of the season and gave up just 2 runs in 5 innings. Peguero did struggle with his control, walking 4. Taking a cue from their major league counterparts, the bullpen blew a 5-2 lead in the 7th. Steve Andrade was unable to retire a batter and Jeff Ridgway gave up a grand slam. Rocco Baldelli was 0-5 in the second game of his rehab assignment. Baldelli did feel well enough to play center field. Joel Guzman hit his 9th home run.

[update: Rocco Baldelli may have reinjured his hamstring while batting. He is to be re-evaluated today]

Brevard County 7, Vero Beach 1. Mike Wlodarczyk struck out 7 in 5 innings. He allowed 3 runs (2 earned) on 5 hits and 3 walks. Offensively, the Rays managed only 3 hits. Rhyne Hughes was 1-4 with a double. He is hitting .338.

NOTES FROM DOWN ON THE FARM…

• Heath Rollins experienced an up-and-down first half, but his manager, Jim Morrison, says that with command of four different pitches , Rollins has the stuff to be good at any level.
• The Montgomery Biscuits were rained out on Monday and will play a double-header Today.

Was Elijah Dukes In Japan Last Year?

Despite the losses on Friday and Saturday nights, there was plenty to be happy about this weekend if you a Devil Rays fan. First, is the re-emergence of Jonny Gomes, who has three home runs since being recalled from Durham last week. And despite losing four of their last six and receiving some of the worst starting pitching in the last 50 years from the Axis of Evil the Rays are still on pace for the most wins in franchise history and have actually opened up a 2 game lead on the last place Baltimore Orioles.

But all of this paled in comparison to what happened 8,000 miles away in Japan.

A Japanese aquarium is celebrating a special new arrival this week — a giant manta ray keepers say is the world’s first ever born in captivity…Video footage shows the 6-foot baby being squeezed out of her mother’s body rolled up like a carpet, before unfurling her fins and flitting gracefully across the tank at the Okinawa Churaumi Aquarium in Japan’s southernmost prefecture.

Now we realize this is not quite as newsworthy as the birth of Matt Leinart’s and Tom Brady’s kids, but this has to be a good sign for the Devil Rays franchise and Devil Rays fans everywhere. Could this be a sign from above below of good things to come? Could this be the weekend that the Devil Rays franchise is reborn? Stay tuned.

Now all the baby Devil Ray needs is a name. At first we tried to figure out how to say “Dawg” in Japanese, but we were unable to confirm whether or not Elijah Dukes is the father. Now we are leaning towards Adam Sisk. Feel free to offer any other suggestions in the comments.

Let’s just hope that the folks at the Aquarium don’t let Vince Naimoli or Chuck LaMar anywhere near the baby Devil Ray.

Rare manta ray born in captivity [CNN.com]
Manta ray [Wikipedia]

The Hangover: Carlos Pena Is A Stabilizing Force

Devil Rays 7, Rockies 4.
Remember back in the off-season when the only position we were worried about was who would fill the enormous shoes of Travis Lee? Elijah Dukes took his first base mitt to the Arizona Fall League. Jonny Gomes borrowed a glove for about 3 hours early in Spring Training. Hee Seop Choi and Carlos Pena were signed as non-roster invitees, and given little chance of even making the ball club. And of course Ty Wigginton and Greg Norton were expected to receive the majority of the playing time. Now? First base may be one of only two positions on the field for which we know who will be playing there for the next 2 seasons.

In 2006, 29 first basemen recorded at least 300 plate appearances. Travis Lee ranked last with a .676 OPS. By comparison, Pena has the highest OPS among all major league first basemen (1.012) and is 3rd among all AL hitters. With his 16th home run on Sunday, Pena is now 4th in the AL. He also 42 RBI (15th in AL) despite only starting 46 of the Rays 67 games. He is also showing no sign of slowing down as none of his numbers have been the result of “hot streaks” within the season. In fact, Pena has been amazingly consistent. In May he hit .356 with 6 home runs. So far in June he is hitting .362 with 6 home runs.

We can be fairly certain that Carl Crawford will still be manning left field in 2008 and 2009, and with 2 more seasons of arbitration eligibility, Pena will be the Rays first baseman. What other position can you say that about? Right field is close with Delmon Young, but every other position is filled with question marks for 2008 and beyond. We know some of the names (Akinori Iwamura, BJ Upton), but we have no idea where these players will call home in the everyday lineup. Pena, on the other hand, has emerged as a stabilizing force in the most unlikely of positions…first base.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Elijah Dukes’ days in a Rays uniform may be numbered. So we ask…If Elijah Dukes’ career fell in a forest would anybody notice? Or care?
• Joe Maddon was ejected for arguing a check-swing non-call yesterday. It was Papa Joe’s first ejection of the season. We are a little fuzzy on this one, but we are fairly certain that this was Joe Maddon’s second ejection as manager of the Devil Rays. At this pace, Maddon would break John McGraw’s all-time ejection record (131) in the year 2137.
• BJ Upton may be closer to returning than originally thought.
• Jim Bowden of the Nationals said that character would be considered before acquiring any players in a trade. There were reports that the Nats were interested in Dukes. This latest quote would indicate that the Nats were not interested. However, Bowden did sign Dmitri Young, who is not exactly Mother Theresa.
• With Jonny Gomes swinging a hot bat, Elijah Dukes is likely to be the odd-man out on Friday when Rocco Baldelli returns from the DL.
• During Saturday’s 5th inning, the Rays were retired on 3 pitches. It was the second time in franchise history that this has occurred.

Down On The Farm: Wade Davis Promoted; Rocco Baldelli Homers In Return

Durham 7, Indy 3. Rocco Baldelli didn’t waste anytime getting his bat warmed up. In just the second at bat of his first live action in over a month, Baldelli hit a solo home run. He finished the game 1-3 with a walk as the Bulls’ DH. Justin Ruggiano went 3-4 and is now hitting .296. He also stole his 11th base. Ben Zobrist was 0-4 and committed his 9th error…On the mound, some guy name Jae Seo made his second minor league start giving up 3 runs in 5 innings.

Jacksonville 5, Montgomery 4. James Houser returned from a strained quad and gave up 3 runs before being pulled with 2 outs in the 5th. Reid Brignac was 1-4 and Evan Longoria was 1-2 with an RBI. John Jaso hit his 6th home run.

Greenville 12, Columbus 7. Heath Rollins was pounded for the 3rd straight start. This time he allowed 9 runs (8 earned) in 3 innings on 8 hits and 2 walks. Desmond Jennings was 4-4 with 3 doubles to raise his average to .297.

NOTES FROM DOWN ON THE FARM…

• Wade Davis has been promoted do AA Montgomery. Davis was 3-0 with a 1.84 ERA in 13 starts with Vero Beach. He struck out 88 in 78.1 innings.
• Doug Waechter will join the short-season Hudson Valley Renegades for a rehab assignment.
• Juan Salas will join AA Montgomery in order to prepare for his return from his 50-game suspension.
• An interview with Ben Zobrist on his demotion to Durham.
• Evan Longoria hit his 15th home run on Saturday.
• Jeremy Hellickson gave up 5 runs in 6 innings on Saturday.

The Hangover: Shawn Camp Makes Us Want To Hurt Stuffed Animals

Rockies 12, Devil Rays 2.
Prior to last night’s game, there were two instances that had yet to happen, but for which we had been bracing ourselves to occur eventually. James Shields is maturing into a great pitcher, and before last night he had been nearly perfect on the season. He had yet to lose and was only the 2nd pitcher in the past 25 years to exit each of his first 13 starts with his team tied or ahead in the game. We knew a bad start was coming and we may have even foreshadowed last night’s performance in yesterday’s “Hangover”. For all the great things that Shields has done this season, he has been susceptible to the long ball and we were worried that would catch up to him in his first Coors Field start. And it did, in the first inning, when Shields surrendered back-to-back dingers and fell behind 4-0. We knew a loss was coming, we just wish it could have come after 2 straight wins, rather than 2 straight L’s.

Oh, and the other thing we are bracing ourselves for? We are not going to talk about it. Not usually ones for “jinxes”, but after yesterday’s “Hangover” and Shields loss, we are not taking any chances.

We were going to end our aching head thoughts with that, but we would be doing you an injustice if we didn’t take a moment to drag Shawn Camp out behind the woodshed and rough him up a little with our keyboard. Let’s see what fun numbers we can come up with today!

After his latest performance, Shawn Camp proved that he is perfectly capable of making his own messes instead of just making other pitcher’s messes worse. We have already shown that Camp is (by far) the worst reliever in baseball when it comes to stranding inherited runners. Well, maybe Joe Maddon finally noticed and last night he brought Camp out to begin the 7th inning. After retiring the first batter, the next 5 batters reached base and 4 of them would eventually score. Shawn Camp basically did everything bad except take a dump on the pitcher’s mound.

Camp’s ERA is now at 7.20. Not even Joe Maddon would dare try to put a positive spin on that number. But how bad is he really? ERA is often a tricky number for relief pitchers because many of the runs they allow are charged to other pitchers. Baseball Prospectus has a stat called FRA (Fair Runs Allowed). This number takes into account inherited runners that are allowed to score as well as unearned runs that score. Camps FRA is 8.28. That is 12th worst in the major leagues for all pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched. Only three of those 12 are relief pitchers.

This just in…Shawn Camp is not very good and every time we see him come in from the bullpen we want to club a stuffed baby seal.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• This Week In Baseball will feature David Price this week.

This Week in Baseball also sat down with Price himself to talk about his past, his big day and his future with the Tampa Bay organization. It seemed as though Price, a charismatic 21-year-old southpaw pitcher out of Vanderbilt, was eager to begin his professional career.

• David Price received The Dick Howser trophy as the nation’s best college baseball player.
• Vanderbilt pitching coach Derek Johnson gives an interview to Baseball Analysts. During the interview he discusses David Price’s workload this season and what Price can do to improve.

[On David Price’s workload at Vandy] I never felt that David was at a deficit. I never felt like David was that guy who you saw early in the game throwing 93-96 and then by the end of it was throwing 86-87. He maintained his velocity well. I kept very good track of what he did to prepare his arm, as I do with all of our guys. So, you know, I understand the criticism, but at the same time you have to understand where we were coming from and where we were at – where David’s arm was at – when we were making those decisions.

[On What David Price Needs to do to improve] From a pitchability standpoint, it’s about refining the third pitch, the change-up and being able to refine command. Last year he had okay command, this year he had very good command, so I still think he has room to improve and grow.

• Edwin Jackson will start on Monday against the D-Backs, but to hear the quotes from Joe Maddon one would think that Andrew Friedman wants Jackson out, but Maddon convinced him to give Jackson one more shot.

We just decided to give it another go. Again, he’s had some really good outings, some tough outings. If you look back at his game log, there’s some nice six inning [performances]– six-innings plus — with nine punchouts. I just have a tremendous feeling about him. So he’s going to go back out there against the D-backs to see if that works.

• Is Dioner Navarro the worst catch in baseball? One blogger thinks so. Of course this is what really bugs us. Show of hands…How many people think that defensive ability is very important to being a catcher? *Lots ‘o hands* OK. How many people think this blogger looked at a single defensive statistic when compiling his rankings? *no hands*. Very good. We always knew our audience was intelligent. Navarro has thrown out 8 of 26 would be base stealers. Not great. That is about average at 31%. By comparison, of the 16 catchers that have faced at least 25 base stealers, 8 of those catchers have worse caught stealing rates than Navi. Several of those catchers are not exactly Johnny Bench with the bat, including Jason Kendall (.219 BA, 1HR, 24% CS), Josh Bard (.252 BA, 2 HR, 14% CS), and Jason Phillips (.226, 1 HR, 10% CS). We’re not saying Navi is a great catcher. We are not even sure he is good yet. But he is not the worst.
• Nice little story here about Joe Maddon and his relationship with his father. But that is not why we are bringing you the link. The reason is this great picture of Papa Joe. The picture is from between 1997 and 2000 (The only years the Angels wore that color combination). Papa Joe is much thinner (it happens), but he actually looks older. Weird.
• Al Reyes has overcome a lot to become one of the league’s best closers in his 20th season of pro ball.
• Hey look. Somebody came up with another way to calculate the Rays chances of making the playoffs. What is the square-root of “no chance in hell”?

Down On The Farm: Rocco Baldelli To Spend Some Time In Durham

Durham 2, Indianapolis 1. Jae Kuk Ryu made his third start for the Bulls and had his second straight strong outing. While limited to 63 pitches, he worked 5 innings and struck out 7 while only allowing 3 hits, no walks and 1 run. The only runners that reached in the first 4 innings were on an error and a bunt single. Chad Orvella continues to reaffirm our belief that he is too good for AAA, but not good enough for the majors. He pitched a perfect 9th, striking out 2 for his 6th save…Joel Guzman collected 3 hits, including his 9th double and a RBI. He also stole his 6th base and he is now hitting .244.

Jacksonville 7, Montgomery 1. Jonathon Barratt dropped to 1-4 after allowing 7 runs in 3.1 innings. Reid Brignac had his second straight strong game, going 2-3 with 2 triples and a walk. With 5 hits in the last two games, The Cajun God of Baseball is up to .259. Evan Longoria had a single in 2 at bats with 2 walks. He also stole his 3rd base.

Greenville 5, Columbus 3. Woods Fines gave up 4 runs in 4 innings on 8 hits and a walk. Desmond Jennings was 2-5 with a double and 2 RBI. Ryan Royster had the only other RBI for the Catfish.

NOTES FROM DOWN ON THE FARM…

• Rocco Baldelli will join the Durham Bulls on Sunday to begin his rehab assignment.
• An early look at the Princeton Devil Rays roster.

2007 Devil Rays Trade Value Index

Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus and SI.com recently released his list of the 50 Most Valuable Players in baseball. We took Mr. Silver to task for not including Carl Crawford. Let’s just say we aren’t buying Nate a beer anytime soon.

In light of this glaring omission, we thought it would be a good time to update our Tampa Bay Devil Rays Trade Value Index (TVI).

TRADE VALUE INDEX
The TVI ranks every player on the current 40-man roster and the top prospects in the organization. Our goal is to determine which players in the organization are the most valuable to the team. Ultimately, when looking at the rankings, the question should be, if the Rays could only keep one of two players from the organization, which player would the front office choose to keep.

The rankings consider a number factors in addition to talent and good looks, such as potential, age, contract and depth of position in organization. This last factor comes into effect if one player is stuck behind another player with more ability. For example, Fernando Perez would be a little higher due to his exceptional speed and strong OBP, but loses a little value because he has bad hair, and some more value because the team has Rocco Baldelli, Carl Crawford, BJ Upton, Elijah Duke and Delmon Young firmly entrenched on the major league roster and either do, or are capable of playing the outfield. Another factor is team needs. A pitcher may be ranked ahead of a more “talented” fielder because the team has a stronger need for pitching at the major league level. (Please see the original TVI post for further explanation).

Feel free to tell us where we screwed up in the comments.

[Rankings follow the notes]

A couple of notes on the rankings…

• The biggest addition to the list is obviously David Price. Even though he has yet to sign a contract, we don’t foresee that being a problem. When trying to determine where to include Price in the rankings we asked ourselves, “If the Rays did not have the top pick and were allowed to deal draft picks, would the Rays have traded Player X, for the top pick in the draft and a chance to select Price?” The answer was ‘NO’ for BJ Upton, but was a ‘YES’ for Evan Longoria, although we definitely debated the second one. You could probably exchange Longoria and Price and you wouldn’t get much of an argument from us. There is never a sure-thing in the minors, but Longoria is as close as it comes.
• Speaking of BJ Upton…He jumps up into the top 5 for the first time. We tried to temper our excitement for his hot start, knowing that he was not going to finish the season hitting .350. His strike out totals indicated that he would fall back…a lot. However, despite the recent drop in batting average, he has actually cut down on his strikeouts, recently going 12 straight games without a K. And despite his size, he generates tremendous bat speed. Everything he hits just explodes off his bat, which will equate to more hits. Upton is the real-deal. We just need to prepare ourselves for the re-birth of “BJ Upton, major league shortstop”, because it is coming. Akinori Iwamura is going to need a new home as early as next season when Evan Longoria busts down the door that is holding him back.
• Jeff Niemann’s ho-hum start to his season at AAA, as well as the emergence of James Shields and the selection of David Price drops his value from #5 to #8. If he doesn’t start to turn it on soon, he will drop out of the top 10.
• Looking back we were surprised that we had James Shields as highly valued as his #11 spring training ranking. Just goes to show you how scary the pitching situation was before the season began. He had a good start to his major league career, winning his first four starts, but there was no indication that he was going to be as good as he has been this year. The only thing keeping him from overtaking Scott Kazmir for the #1 spot is that Kid K is a lefty and he is two years younger than Shields.
• Rocco Baldelli takes a big hit, dropping from #4 to #9. If this was the Devil Rays Most Fragile Index, he would be the unanimous #1. Until he can show that he can stay healthy for an extended period of time, he won’t be moving up this chart.
• Much has been made about the Rays drafting a big power-lefty in the form of David Price. Of course the Rays already have a power-lefty in the majors (Scott Kazmir). Well the Rays have another big power-lefty in the system. Jacob McGee makes his first appearance in the top 10. When he finally receives a (well-deserved) promotion and if he has a strong start at AA, he could jump into the top 5.
• You would think that Jacob McGee and Wade Davis have been best friends since potty-training. They are always together and mentioned together even more often. Davis obviously does not have quite the same value as McGee as right-hander. Still, #20 is a strong ranking for a single-A right-handed pitcher and a testament to what scouts think about Davis. He might drop a few spots initially, but a switch to “closer-in-training” could bump his value in the long run.
• Edwin Jackson is holding on to his #12 spot…barely…on talent alone.
• Elijah Dukes drops from #10 to #15. It would have been farther, but some teams around the league have expressed some interest in Dukes, so he is sti
  ll considered a valuable commodity.
• Reid Brignac takes one of the biggest falls, dropping from #9 to #16. His batting average is down in the .250s and he is not hitting home runs. On top of that, after a solid defensive showing in 2006, he is back to his best BJ Upton impersonation at shortstop this season. Remember, Brignac’s strong numbers last year came in the very hitter-friendly California League. Yet another reason to brace ourselves for BJ Upton the shortstop.
• Chris Mason has made the biggest leap in 2007, from #48 to #24. It is very difficult to gauge players at single-A. We start to get a sense of talent-levels once they hit AA. Mason has dominated at AA this season and looks to be on the fast-track.
• Josh Butler (#28), Lewis Rollins (#48) and Jeremy Hellickson (#29) are good examples at low-A Columbus. We just don’t know what they are yet. They are dominating low-A, but it is too early to tell how that will translate to higher levels. Rollins is having the best season of the three, but was the lowest draft pick. That indicates to us that the other two have more natural ability. If Rollins can keep it up in Vero Beach and beyond, he will move up the chart quickly.