The Hangover: Scott Kazmir Likes To Get His Work In Early

Royals 12, Devil Rays 4.
5 innings, 100 pitches. When we look back on the 2007 season, that could be the opening line. 5 innings, 100 pitches. The rest of the rotation (outside of James Shields) has been awful, but that was no surprise. The bullpen has been vomit-inducing, but we saw that coming. The only real disappointment on the pitching staff has been Scott Kazmir and his ability to look so good and so bad at the same time.

There has been a lot of speculation as to how this season will affect the long-term health of Kazmir. He leads the majors in pitches per inning and is among the league leaders in total pitches (4th with 2066). He is averaging 109 pitches per start despite averaging less than 6 innings per outing.

Those 109 pitches per start is the 4th highest rate in baseball. However, that number may not be as bad as it sounds. Of his 18 starts this season, he has thrown at least 100 pitches 17 times. Of those, he has 8 starts with greater than 110 pitches, but he has no starts with greater than 120. Baseball Prospectus has a formula for relating the number of pitches thrown in each start to a “Stress” level on the pitcher’s arm. The lack of starts with 120+ pitches thrown has actually helped keep Kazmir’s stress-level down. While he is 4th in pitches thrown and pitches per start, he is only tied for 18th in “Stress”. 20 different pitchers have starts this season with at least 122 pitches thrown. Five of those pitchers have done it more than once. Kazmir’s high pitches per start rate is due more to consistent pitch counts in the 100-110 range and not due to the occasional red-level pitch count. The occasional 125+ pitch game can be far more stressful on the arm than consistently throwing 100-110.

It appears as though Kazmir and Joe Maddon are not necessarily adding risk to the long-term health of Kid K’s left arm. However, if he is going to be successful he needs to be more judicial with his pitches and work later into games.

Scott Kazmir has an unusually high Opponents Batting Average on Balls put in play (BABIP), considering the rest of his numbers. Opponents are hitting .345 when they hit the ball which is the 6th highest in baseball (Edwin Jackson has the highest rate at .378). Such a high BABIP is generally considered bad luck with batted balls finding openings in the defense higher than would normally be expected. The high rate against a pitcher like with good stuff, could just be bad luck. If that is the case, and Kazmir experiences a reversal of fortune, he will see fewer base runners and fewer hitters which will lead to more 7 and 8 inning outings and we could see a stronger second half from Kid K.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• And the first half ends. Worst. Record. In. Baseball.
• We can see how 2 days of all-star activities can be rough on a 25-year old. So it is a good thing that Joe Maddon gave Carl Crawford Sunday off (C.C. did pinch hit in the 8th inning).
• When the Rays ended their 11-game losing streak there was plenty of celebrating in the clubhouse after the game. Here is a suggestion: Why not act like you have won a few games before. Why not act like you just beat the friggin’ Kansas City Royals. Why not act like you just won a game you were supposed to win. Why not go out and see if you can win a series against Kansas City before popping the bubbly. Is that too much to ask for?
• Tom Gatto of The Sporting News analyzes a few of the recent quotes from Joe Maddon and Andrew Friedman, and comments on how all the spin-doctoring is not going to make the team any better.

you are what your record says it is. The Rays’ 34-51 record says, “Bad, and getting worse.”

• Dioner Navarro did not suffer a broken jaw as originally feared following his collision with Josh Beckett. He was out of the lineup on Friday, but returned on Saturday.
• Carter Gaddis released a major league baseball “Power Rankings” and he has the Devil Rays at #30. We are down on the Rays right now as much as anybody, but they are not the worst team in baseball…OK, maybe they are.
• Joe Maddon has set the Devil Rays’ rotation for after the All-Star break. James Shields, Scott Kazmir, Andy Sonnanstine and Edwin Jackson will pitch the opening series against the Yankees. JP Howell will be skipped the first time through the rotation as the Rays have an off day after the Yankees series. Howell will be used out of the bullpen. It now appears that
  Jackson has secured his spot in the rotation and Howell is the pitcher on the bubble. Now we wait and see if Howell can pitch better and if not, will it be Jason Hammel or Jeff Niemann that takes his spot. Two weeks ago we would have said Hammel, hands down. Now we have a feeling it will be Niemann with Hammel remaining in the bullpen for the remainder of the year.
• BJ Upton is still on schedule to rejoin the Rays on Thursday. Of course that is assuming that he does not get “fatigued” again between now and then, playing 5 innings in a minor league game.
• When BJ Upton returns, Jonny Gomes is likely to see far less playing time in the outfield and will most likely return to full-time DH duties.
• Marc Tompkin hands out his first-half MVP to Al Reyes. We prefer to call it the first-half LUP (Least Unvaluable Player).
• Marc Tompkin also sums up what went right and the many, many things that went wrong in the first half. A Crawford-Hamilton-Young outfield sure sounds nice these days.
• The second half will not be any better unless Andrew Friedman can find some help for the bullpen.
• The Tampa Tribune has introduced a concept stadium for the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. The stadium is a a retractable roof field and they propose several locations. The entire concept is one dreamed up by the staff of the Tribune.
• Shawn Camp knows all about long losing streaks…what a coincidence.
• A judge refused to throw out a marijuana possession charge against Elijah Dukes. In other news concerning Elijah Dukes, it has been a long time since he made news for something he did on a baseball field.
• According to Baseball Prospectus (via MLB Trade Rumors), the Chicago White Sox may be interested in Elijah Dukes…The White Sox and 28 other teams are interested if they can get him for a no-name prospect and a box of balls. Until we start to hear actual names of players that other teams are willing to part with, we are not taking any Elijah Dukes rumors seriously.
• Carl Crawford still looks back at his football days and wonders what could have been if he had played at Nebraska.
• If James Shields was playing the AL West, would he be a Cy Young candidate?
• The guys at Sports Talk have their mid-season report card up for the Devil Rays. We wrote a mid-season summary for another website, which we will link to when it is up, and we included a report card. Our grades were nearly identical.

When Joel Guzman Makes Contact, The Baseball Says "Ouch"

We had heard about this home run hit by Joel Guzman a couple of weeks ago, but we just now came across the video. If you have never seen a game at the new DBAP in Durham, it may be difficult to appreciate exactly how far Guzman hit this ball. There is a “Blue Monster” in left field. While not as high as the Green Monster at Fenway, the wall is farther from home plate. Guzman hits this towering shot towards the center field end of the wall and clears not only the monster, but the billboard behind the monster above the 371-foot mark…

It is easy to see why scouts have drooled over Guzman since he was signed by the Dodgers at the age of 16. He was named the Dodgers #1 prospect at the beginning of the 2006 season. If he could ever learn to make more consistent contact (81 to 16 strike out to walk ratio) to go with his power and gold-glove caliber defense, Evan Longoria might have to find a new position.

Down On The Farm: Jeff Niemann And Evan Longoria Perform On The Big Stage

Durham 8, Buffalo 2. Tony Peguero gave up 1 run in 5 inning for his first win at AAA Durham. Juan Salas pitched the 6th and 7th allowing only 1 hit and no runs while striking out 5 of the 7 batters he faced. Jason Pridie was 3-5 with a double, an RBI and 2 runs scored. Joel Guzman was 2-4 with an RBI and has average up to .262. However, he struck out twice and now has 81 on the year to only 16 walks.

Rome 7, Columbus 6. Jeremy Hellickson was pulled after only 2 innings. He had only allowed 1 hit and struck out 2. Nevin Ashley was 4-5 with an RBI. He is now hitting .281.

Hudson Valley 8, Oneonta 7.

Kingston 3, Princeton 2.

NOTES FROM DOWN ON THE FARM…

• Major League Baseball held their Future’s Games yesterday at PacBell park in San Francisco. Jeff Niemann was the starting pitcher for the US squad. He pitched one inning and allowed 2 runs (1 earned). Evan Longoria started at third base and batted third. He hit a long double in his first at bat and was hit by a pitch in his only other plate appearance.
• Desmond Jennings was named the Devil Rays minor league player of the month for the second time this season. He hit .378 in June with 13 stolen bases, 18 RBI and an OPS of 1.102 (for the record, that’s really freakin’ good for a leadoff hitter). Wade Davis was named the top pitcher.
• On Friday, Wade Davis moved to 3-0 in his 4th AA start. He allowed 1 run in 7 innings.
• On Saturday, Josh Butler picked up his second win since being promoted to Vero Beach. He allowed only 1 hit in 6 innings, but walked 4.
• The Biscuits are off until Wednesday for the Southern League all-star game.
• Vero Beach was rained out on Sunday, guaranteeing that BJ Upton still would not have to play on back-to-back to days during his rehab assignment. The Rays will play a double-header on Monday.

Summing Up The Red Sox Series In 39 Seconds

It is fitting that Shawn Bleepin’ Camp is featured in a video in which the Devil Rays mascot is being de-pantsed…We also couldn’t help but notice the irony of each mascot’s jersey number. Wally is wearing #97 while Raymond is wearing #00. Those numbers happen to also be the number of runs scored in the series by each team*.

*Only slightly exaggerated.

The Hangover: Starring Joe Maddon As The Black Knight

Red Sox 15, Devil Rays 4.

[They fight until Arthur cuts off Black Knight’s left arm]
King Arthur: Now, stand aside, worthy adversary!
Black Knight: ‘Tis but a scratch!
King Arthur: A scratch? Your arm’s off!
Black Knight: No, it isn’t!
King Arthur: Well, what’s that then?
King Arthur: I’ve had worse.
King Arthur: You liar!
Black Knight: Come on, you pansy!
King Arthur: [after Arthur’s cut off both of the Black Knight’s arms] Look, you stupid Bastard. You’ve got no arms left.
Black Knight: Yes I have.
King Arthur: *Look*!
Black Knight: It’s just a flesh wound.
[the Black Knight continues to threaten Arthur despite getting both his arms and one of his legs cut off]
Black Knight: Right, I’ll do you for that!
King Arthur: You’ll what?
Black Knight: Come here!
King Arthur: What are you gonna do, bleed on me?
Black Knight: I’m invincible!
King Arthur: …You’re a loony.

We’re in one of those moments that is not good and there is no way to get around that. But while we are having this difficult moment, I’m looking to see where we are improving, because this is going to go away. And we’re going to be fine and we’re going to turn this around – Joe Maddon

We have long supported Joe Maddon here at RI, even if we have taken him behind the woodshed once or twice. Our feeling has always been that the team is not much worse than can be expected. For most of the first half, three of the Rays starting pitchers were among the worst in baseball. As we near the all-star break, with Al Reyes on the DL, the bullpen consists of five or six guys that would not even make any other team’s 25-man roster. It’s like taking a perfectly good team and smearing it with feces. With an arsenal like that, what could we possibly expect from a second-year manager? There isn’t a manager in baseball that could contend with this squad.

We believe in the baseball axiom that managers receive too much credit when the team is doing well and too much blame when the team is struggling. But now we are beginning to feel the same frustration of many in the Devil Rays Universe.

We understand the need to remain positive when times are bad. It can help when those that you report to, still believe in your abilities even when all the numbers suggest otherwise. But it is also OK to let them know every once and a while that you are disappointed in them. We are not asking Papa Joe to rip the team in the press. We are not asking Papa Joe to lay blame at certain players feet or even at his own. But when a team is in the midst of an 11-game losing streak…

STOP WAXING POETIC ABOUT HOW THINGS ARE FINE. WE ARE SICK OF IT.

All we need, as fans, is to know that this is just as painful for Joe Maddon and the 25 guys that put on the uniform. If it is not, than GET THE HELL OUT, and let Stuart Sternberg find somebody that will feel our pain.

I’m not going to grab any sharp objects…I’m not going to do any of that. This too shall pass – Joe Maddon

Don’t worry about grabbing “sharp objects” Joe. Rays fans everywhere already have a firm grip on them and we are beginning to wonder, that if like the Black Knight, you are a “loony”.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• We are big fans of With Leather. And while many try (often too hard) to come up with witty and catchy headlines, With Leather may have summed up the 2007 Devil Rays best with THIS HEADLINE. Excuse us, while we bang our heads on the desk.
  
• Dioner Navarro was knocked unconscious after a collision with Red Sox pitcher Josh Beckett. He was taken to a local hospital for x-rays on his jaw.
• If the Devil Rays ever get a save opportunity while Al Reyes is on the DL, it will likely go to Gary Glover.
• White Sox GM Kenny Williams confirmed rumors that the Devil Rays inquired about free agent-to-be Mark Buerhle. The reason that the Rays would be interested is that they would receive two compensatory draft picks at the end of the first round in next year’s draft when Buerhle signs with another club in the off-season. If the Rays can convince the White Sox to take som
  ething less valuable than those two picks, the Rays would make the deal. Not gonna happen.
• Kevin Gengler believes that both Dioner Navarro and Joe Maddon are not the long-term answers for the Devil Rays. We still believe in Navarro but our thoughts on Maddon have gone from support to uncertain. However, there is one thing we do agree with…

Writing cohrerently [sic] during an 11-game losing streak is tough.

• Jordi at The Serious Tip takes a look at the pattern of All-Star games and notes that in the next 7 years, Tampa Bay and Miami could become the only major league cities not to host an all-star game since 1977. With the Marlins likely to be elsewhere in the next 5-10 years and the Tropicana Field bias, there is little chance of that trend changing before the Rays move to a new ballpark.
• James Shields threw just 15 fastballs his last time out and has only given up one walk in his previous 32.2 innings. Still, his 19 home runs allowed is second in the AL. The home runs are not that alarming. But early in the year, they were mostly of the solo variety. He needs to limit the dingers when men are on base.
• ArmchairGM lists the Devil Rays as “sellers” and believe that the Rays will move Carl Crawford before the trading deadline.
• Marc Lancaster has sold out and is now incorporating musical lyrics, a practice we hope you never see here. An occasional “Anchorman” quote? Sure, but never lyrics.

Men are on base. It’s so hot…Shawn Camp was a baaaaaad choice

Down On The Farm: Reid Brignac Homers To Rally Biscuits

Buffalo 3, Durham 0. Jae Kuk Ryu gave up 2 runs in 5 innings on 7 hits and 3 walks. He struck out 2. Juan Salas struck out 2 in 1 inning of work but gave a run on 2 hits. Seth McClung was typical AAA Seth McClung. He struck out 3 in 2 scoreless inning but walked 2. The Bulls managed only 5 hits with no hitter getting more than 1.

Montgomery 7, Mobile 5. Chris Mason struck out 4 in 5 innings and gave up only 1 run on 4 hits and a walk. The Biscuits trailed 3-0 after 7 innings. They tied the game with 3 in the 8th on a Patrick Breen solo home run, an RBI single by Reid Brignac and a passed ball. After falling behind 5-3 in the bottom of the 8th, the Biscuits responded with 4 in the top of the 9th. Matt Spring hit a two-run home run, his 3rd, and Brignac capped the scoring with a 2-run shot of his own, his 9th of the year. Dale Thayer got the final 5 outs of the game to move his record to 7-0 to go along with his 15 saves.

Columbus 8, Charleston 7. Ryan Morse allowed 4 runs (3 earned) in 5 innings. Jairo De La Rosa hit a 3-run home run for Columbus to start their scoring in the 5th. Quinn Stewart hit his 11th home run, a solo shot in the 6th. Cesar Suarez had a 2-run double in the 7th, followed by a 2-run single by Seth Dhaenens. Nevin Ashley stole his 14th base and Desmond Jennings was 2-5 and stole his 37th base.

Princeton 2, Johnson City 1.

NOTES FROM DOWN ON THE FARM…

• Jeff Niemann has been removed from the IL All-Star team due to his commitment to pitch in major league baseball’s future’s game. He has been replaced on the roster by Justin Ruggiano.
  
• Reid Brignac’s struggles are a big mystery.
• A closer look shows that Reid Brignac is only struggling against right-handers, a sign that the left-handed hitter is just in a prolonged slump.
• The Hardball Times takes a look at Reid Brignac’s numbers and suggests that he is likely to turn it around before the end of the season.

Beyond the decreased power numbers, his performance only looks bad because of an ugly batting average. I doubt that will last. Brignac’s .262 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is unusually low given his well above-average rate of hitting line drives. If he continues to make good contact, he will probably finish the season with a batting average closer to .280 than .240, and his on-base and slugging percentages will consequently start to look like those of a top prospect once again.

• Before last night’s rally, the Montgomery Biscuits were 0-135 as a franchise in road games in which they trailed after 8 innings.
• Both games of the double-header for Vero Beach were rained out. They will play a double-header today.
• The Hudson Valley Renegades game versus Aberdeen was postponed due to rain.

The Hangover: No Answer For Rays Recent Struggles

Red Sox 7, Devil Rays 5.
10 straight losses as we near the All-Star break. At one point this season the Devil Rays had three of the ten worst starting pitchers in baseball in their rotation and yet they were only 4 games below The Charlie Hough Line (.500). Since, then two of the three members of The Axis of Evil (Jae Seo and Casey Fossum) have been banished and the third (Edwin Jackson) has pitched better (although he continues to pitch just well enough to lose). The result? The 2007 Tampa Bay Devil Rays now sit 17 games below .500 with the worst record in the AL and the schedule doesn’t get any easier. In the second half the Rays play 50 of 75 games against teams with winning records or teams named the New York Yankees.

So what happened? Injuries happened (BJ Upton, Rocco Baldelli, Akinori Iwamura). Idiocy happened (Elijah Dukes). And the rest of the lineup appeared to forget how to score runs. The Rays are 10-21 since the beginning of June. But while the pitching has seemed to be better outside of the usual bullpen implosions, the Rays offensive numbers have actually improved since the beginning of June.

In April (5.04) and May (4.27) the Rays scored 4.65 runs per game. Since the beginning of June that number is 4.69. The team batting average has only fallen from .260 in April/May to .259 in June/July. The power numbers are off from 1.18 HR/game in April/May to 0.88 per game in June/July. However, the teams OBP is up slightly with averages of .324 in April, .332 in May, and .333 in June.

If it is not the offense, than it must be the pitching that has gotten worse…right? Well outside of the three occasions in June in which the bullpen blew a 5+ run lead, the pitching has indeed been better. In April (6.78) and May (5.73) the Rays allowed 6.10 runs per game. Since the beginning of June, the number is down to 5.81. Not good, but definitely better.

So why are the Rays suddenly back to being the laughing stock of baseball? We don’t have an answer. Maybe it is a string of bad luck and are better than they have played the past 6 weeks. Maybe the team was playing above themselves for the first two months of the season and are not a team that should have been playing near-.500 ball. This team will play better, but don’t look for the Rays to sniff .500 again in 2007.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• In an effort to break Carl Crawford out of a slump that saw his average fall to .281, Joe Maddon moved C. C. up a spot to #2 in the lineup. An 0-4 outing on Tuesday was followed by a 3-5 performance on Wedensday.
• We didn’t think we would have to experience a bullpen without Al Reyes until at least August when Reyes could be traded. But we are going to get a sneak preview for at least the next two weeks as Reyes was placed on the 15-day DL with a mild rotator cuff strain. Lefty Jon Switzer was recalled from Durham to fill the roster spot. Yes, the Rays now have two lefties in the bullpen after starting the season without any.
• Since BJ Upton, began his rehab assignment, he has been doing his best Rocco Baldelli impersonation. In the span of less than a week, he has been fatigued, experienced tightness in his injured quad and ran a fever. As a result he has only played in 2.5 out of 6 games and is now not expected back with the Rays until after the All-Star break.
• Tim Corcoran was transferred to the 60-day DL to make room on the 40-man roster for Juan Salas who was reinstated following his 50-game suspension. Salas was optioned to Durham.
• Martin Fennelly may have summed up the first half in one sentence although the numbers above indicate otherwise.

This team has shown an uncanny and unfortunate knack of not doing two things well at the same time. When they hit, they don’t pitch. When they pitch, they don’t hit

Down On The Farm: Reid Brignac Showing Signs Of Improvement With Glove

Charotte 7, Durham 3. Jeff Niemann dropped to 9-5 in his last start before the Major League Baseball future’s game on Monday, as he failed to finish the 4th inning. In 3.2 innings, Niemann allowed 8 hits including 2 home runs, and 3 walks, leading to 4 runs. He struck out only 1 and now has an ERA of 3.75. BJ Upton returned to the field after suffering from a fever and missing two games. He batted second and went 2-4 with 2 singles and a strike out.

Montgomery 11, Mobile 8. Richard De Los Santos was returned to Montgomery after a recent promotion to Durham to fill the vacant spot in the rotation left by the departure of James Houser. De Los Santos, making his first start of the year, gave up 3 runs (2 earned) in 3.2 innings on 4 hits and a walk. He struck out 2. Matt Spring and Shawn Cumberland homered for the Biscuits. Gabriel Martinez went 3-5 with 3 RBI. Reid Brignac was 0-3 with 2 walks and 2 runs scored, while Evan Longoria was 1-5 with 2 strike outs.

Charleston 6, Columbus 3. Heath Rollins struck out 4 in 6 innings and allowed 1 unearned run on 5 hits and 1 walk. Ryan Royster was 2-4 to raise his average to .324. Desmond Jennings was 0-4 and Nevin Ashley was 0-3.

Burlington 7, Princeton 4.

NOTES FROM DOWN ON THE FARM…

• Kevin Gengler of Tampa Bay’s Tomorrow has some predictions for some of the Rays top minor league prospects.
• James Houser was placed on the Temporarily Inactive List after his father suffered a heart attack. His father is in stable condition.
• Dale Thayer, who set the Southern League record for saves in a season in 2006, is 15 for 17 in save opportunities this season.
• Reid Brignac has 17 errors on the season, but has played error-free in the last 8 games.
• Wednesday’s game for the Vero Beach Rays was postponed due to rain. They will play a double-header today.
• Wednesday’s game for the Hudson Valley Renegades was postponed due to rain. They will play a double-header today.

[THE HANGOVER] The Professor’s New Cap

Indians 10, Devil Rays 2.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• We would rather be sexually harassed by Jay Mariotti than read about the Devil Rays today.

Down On The Farm: Jake McGee Ks 13 In 7 Shutout Innings

Durham 3, Toledo 1. Jae Seo bounced back from his last outing with only 1 run allowed in 6.2 innings. He gave up 4 hits and no walks while striking out 6. Seo only allowed in 1 hit during the first 5 innings. Chris Richard was 3-3 with 2 RBI.

Montgomery 9, Birmingham 4. Jonathon Barratt gave up 3 runs in 6 innings to pick up his second win on the season. John Jaso and Chris Nowak homered for the Biscuits. Nowak added a single and a triple and 2 RBI. Jaso’s 3-run home run came in the Biscuits 5-run 4th inning. Reid Brignac was 2-5 and Evan Longoria was 1-3 with a walk and 2 runs scored. Fernando Perez stole his 17th base.

Daytona 2, Vero Beach 0. Huge evening for Jake McGee. In 7 shutout innings, McGee allowed only 2 hits while striking out 13 and walking none. McGee retired the last 15 batters he faced and left the game tied 0-0 as the Rays only managed 2 hits on the evening.

Hudson Valley 5, Staten Island 4.

Princeton 8, Danville 1.

NOTES FROM DOWN ON THE FARM…

• Monday night’s game for the Columbus Catfish was rained out with the Catfish leading 4-3 in the 4th inning.
• Chris Andujar had a pretty good pitching coach growing up…his father.