Bill James Has Never Heard Of Carl Crawford, Delmon Young And BJ Upton

In his upcoming book, Bill James lists the top 25 major leaguers under the age of 30. Baseball Digest Daily got a hold of the list, which consists of 13 hitters and 12 pitchers.

To achieve his “Young Talent Inventory,” James first eliminated from the list all players who were 29 years old in 2007 or older, to give a definition to “young talent.” Then he used two widely used statistics—“runs created” for position players and “runs allowed” for pitchers—as the basis for comparison. However, James made several adjustments and then took into account how many years the player has left before he is 33 years old.

So. The first step in constructing a list of the best players under the age of 30 is to eliminate anybody that is 29 years old. Bill James. Baseball Genius.

Scott Kazmir is ranked as the 3rd best pitcher (6th overall), behind Fausto Carmona and Felix Hernandez. James Shields makes the list as the 9th best pitcher (20th overall). What? No Jason Hammel? Kid K’s ranking seems about right, especially as a left hander, but we are not sure we would rank Shields ahead of both CC Sabathia and Brandon Webb, although it is closer than many would think. Shields is a year younger and it would be difficult to argue that he very well could have won 19 games with the Indians or 18 games with the D-Backs.

Noticeably absent from the list of top young hitters are the Devil Rays own Carl Crawford (26), BJ Upton (23) and Delmon Young (22). Do you think the Nationals would hesitate to trade Ryan Zimmerman (#11) for any of those three? Of course not. How about the O’s and Nick Markakis? or the Pads and Adrian Gonzalez? And those are just the obvious players that the Rays young trio are obviously superior to. Arguments could be made for 4-5 others on the list.

We are not sure why CC, Upton and Young were left off the list but we can only imagine what “adjustments” James made to his calculations. Maybe he didn’t want 25% of the list to be Devil Rays. Because clearly, baseball is played on a calculator and having that much talent on one team would lead to 125 wins according to his abacus. And clearly “adjustments” needed to be made to the calculations to explain why the Rays did not win 125 games. It doesn’t matter though. He is Bill James and he is smarter than all of us.

You talent inventory [Baseball Digest Daily]
I Am Bill James and I Am Smarter Than You [On The Show]

The Hangover: Justin Ruggiano Joins Evan Longoria On Team USA

Scottsdale 10, Peo Saguaros 1.
Evan Longoria did not hit a home run. He did not get 3 hits or 4 RBI. He did not pass go and collect $200. He did go 1-3 with a walk and a run scored. He is hitting .318. Reid Brignac 0-4 with a run scored and is now 5-37 (.135) in 9 games.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Justin Ruggiano has been added to the Team USA World Cup baseball team that will compete in Chinese Taipei. [Austin American-Statesman]
• We pretty much can’t stand Scott Boras, as much as anybody. But we have the utmost respect for him. I’m Writing Sports refers to Boras as the most hated man in sports. He is a salesman and when it comes to agents that sell their clients, nobody does it better. Yes he says ridiculous things. He is a salesman. Yes he always sets the bar way too high. He is a salesman. He knows that no owner is going to give Alex Rodriguez $450 million. But…if he demands $450 million, then he has a better chance of getting $300-350 million, which is exactly what Boras wants for A-Rod…And he will get it. That is why he is the best. He may not necessarily put his client in the best situations (A-Rod in Texas, Jeff Weaver in Seattle, etc.), but he will always get them the top dollar. The only effect on baseball that Boras has had on baseball that really irks us is the Amateur Baseball Draft. The best player should be drafted #1. End of story. Too often the top players fall to the big market teams because of contract demands by Scott Boras. In the end, the rich get richer. [I’m Writing Sports]
• The Devil Rays only have one player (Carlos Pena) currently represented by Scott Boras. Rocco Baldelli was formerly a Boras client and then dropped him to negotiate his own contract extension. At the time, it was generally considered a bad move by Baldelli and for a while many considered Rocco’s contract to be below market. But Boras is an agent that rarely negotiates extensions before a previous contract expires. He believes in the open market, and that competition drives up prices. In this case, if Boras had held back and waited for Rocco to become a free agent, he might have cost his client money, or at least he would have been forced to sign an incentive-laden contract on the free agent market.

Rays Fans Selfishly Rocking For The Rox

Congratulations to the Red Sox on advancing to the World Series, but for the next 6-10 days we are Colorado Rockies fans, and it is not for the reasons that you might think…

• This is not because we hate the Red Sox (even though we do)

• This is not because we resent the Red Sox $6.4 trillion payroll (it’s really more of a jealousy thing)

• This is not because Pink Hat Nation and their legion of bandwaggoners annoy us to no end (some of them do)…besides…At least they have a Nation. We know that Manny Stiles speaks of the Devil Rays Universe, but in comparison, it really is more like the “Devil Rays Zip Code”

• And it is not because we are dreading having to listen to all the excuses that Yankee fans come up with when the Red Sox win (even though it is annoying)

• And this is not because we secretly love purple (we don’t)

No. We are jumping on the Rockies bandwagon because if they win the World Series it raises the bar for our own Devil Rays.

How? Since 1993, the Devil Rays are one of four expansion teams added to Major League Baseball. If the Rockies win the World Series this season, it will mark the 4th championship from that group and the Rays would be the only one of that quartet without a title. Finishing in last place of the AL East nine times in 10 years, is bad enough, but if the Rox are champs, the Rays failures become even more magnified, and the bar will be raised.

The goal of any sports franchise should be to win championships. Not .500. Not a winning season. Not the playoffs. The goal for the 2008 Devil Rays should be the World Series and nothing else. Crazy? Maybe. But so is barbecuing in the nude. Besides, worse to first is not unheard of (1991 Minnesota Twins), even in this town (1979 Tampa Bay Buccaneers). The bar should be raised.

A Rockies title and the bar would be raised, even though the bar should be high already. And if the Rockies win the Series (and we will be rooting every step of the way) we will spend the next year slapping the Rays front office on the ass with the bar.

The Hangover: And The Hits Just Keep On Comin’ For Evan Longoria

Scottsdale Scorpions (1-10)

thurs
Mesa 6, Scottsdale 2. Reid Brignac led of for Scottsdale, going 2-3 and hitting a olo home run, his first in the AFL. Evan Longoria was 2-3 with 2 doubles and a walk.

fri
Scottsdale 9, Peo Javelinas 3. Evan Longoria was 3-4 with 2 doubles, a home run and 3 RBI in Scottsadale’s first win. It was Longoria’s 4th home run. John Jaso also homered for the Scorpions, going 1-2 with 2 RBI. Reid Brignac was 0-4. Mike Prochaska started and picked up the win, going 3 innings, and allowing 1 run on 3 hits, and a walk, while striking out 2. Calvin Medlock relieved and pitched 2 scoreless innings striking out 2.

sat
Phoenix 3, Scottsdale 2. Evan Longoria went 1-4 and is now hitting .317. He also committed his 3rd error of the AFL.Longoria is 4th in the AFL with a 1.063 OPS. He is tied for the league lead with 4 home runs, is third with 8 RBI and second with 4 doubles. Chris Nowak started at first base and went 1-3 with an RBI. Nick DeBarr and Evan Meek each pitched in relief. DeBarr threw 2 perfect innings with a strikeout, while Meek strike out two, but gave up a hit an a walk in two-thirds of an inning.

sun
OFF DAY

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• 2007 has been unkind to the state of Ohio. [The Sporting Orange]
• Was anybody esle disturbed a little to see a member of the Orioles in the Boston dugout and throwing the first pitch in game 7? [The Kansas City Star]
• We believe the Dustin Pedroia should be and will be AL Rookie of the Year…But Baseball America thinks that Delmon Young was only the 13th best rookie (5th best in the AL)…seriously. [ArmchairGM]
• Yet another blogger that thinks Joe Torre should take a year off and then replace Joe Maddon as manager of the Devil Rays. After hearing Torre refer to the Yankee’s contract offer as an “insult”, we are starting to warm to the possibility if Maddon gets off to a bad start in 2008 or if the Rays fail to reach .500 at the end of the season. It is not a secret that George Steinbrenner considers Tampa his home turf and has never been fond of the Devil Rays franchise. Taking the Tampa job and beating the Yankees could be the ultimate answer from the manager that is a lot more fiery and calculating than his public persona would suggest. [Quick Hits From The Sidelines]
• Keep in mind that Joe Torre and Don Zimmer are close, and Zim was none-too-happy about the way the Yankees handled his pal Torre. [tampabay.com]
• More funky baseball math. This time, Roto Authority suggests that Andy Sonnanstine was the 4th unluckiest pitcher in 2007 which suggests he could be much better in 2008. [Roto Authority]
• Minor-ity Report take a look at David Price and compares his numbers to Mark Prior. Not the first time we have heard the comparison, but Price’s numbers in college were actually better than Prior’s and Price has an extra year of college under his belt. And did we mention that Price is left-handed. We are starting to get giddy. [Minor-ity Report]
• Despite a big dropoff in production in 2007, the Devil Rays still believe that Reid Brignac is their future shortstop. It just won’t be in 2008. [TBO]
• “The only thing that keeps this organization from being recognized as one of the finest in baseball is wins and losses at the major league level.” – Devil Rays GM Chuck Lamar…We are not sure why this is one of “The 35 Dumbest Sports Quotes Ever”. Isn’t it true? [LiveJournal]
• Jon Garland or Jose Contreras for Carl Crawford? Contreras? No. Garland? Not likely. He is set to make $12 million in 2008 and will be a free agent at the end of the year. [Mets Blog]
• Then again, MLB Rumors cites “industry sources” that “The Devil Rays and White Sox have worked over the past couple months on possible deals this off season that involve Jon Garland and Carl Crawford”. Maybe THIS GUY qualifies as an “industry source” [MLB Rumors]
• In the four professional sports leagues in North America, there are 92 teams. Sports Frog ranks the Devil Rays 89th, ahead of only the Memphis Grizzlies (90), Charlotte Bobcats (91) and the Houston Texans (92). See? The Rays don’t always finish last. [Sports Frog]
• RJ Anderson discusses his upcoming book about Chuck LaMar. [The Stat Pack]
  

The Hangover: Nate Silver Projects Evan Longoria As One Of Most Valuable Players In Baseball

Mesa 7, Scottsdale 4.
Scottsdale remains the only winless team in the AFL at 0-8. Evan Longoria (1-5), John Jaso (0-2, 2 BB), Chris Nowak (0-3) and Reid Brignac (0-4, 3K) went a combined 1-14. Evan Meek and Nick DeBarr each pitched a perfect inning in the loss.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Back in May, Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus and SI.com made a list of “Baseball’s 50 Most Valuable Players” which is based on projected value over the next six seasons. At the time we took Mr. Silver to task for only giving Carl Crawford a nod as honorable mention. Another honorable mention from the Rays was Evan Longoria (BJ Upton [#50], Delmon Young [#42] and Scott Kazmir [#33] also made the list). Silver has now taken a look back at his list and made some adjustments and predictions for his 2008 list. He now feels that Evan Longoria will make the top 20 at #18. A ranking this high indicates that not only will Longoria be a great player, but he will become the face of the franchise in the near future. [Baseball Prospectus]
• The “60 Greatest Moments in MLB in the last 60 years” and not a single Devil Rays moment? What about that time that Kevin Stocker…No. OK, What about that time Jared Sandberg came up with 2 outs in the 9th and…Noooo. OK. how about that time when the Rays were battling for…Yikes. Well, there was the game when Dewon Brazelton threw a….Shit! Nevermind. [The Book]
• If the Rays sign a Type-A Free Agent (the bestest), they would not lose their first round pick (#1 overall). Sweet! Now that we know the #1 pick is protected, what kind of starting pitcher can the Rays get for $500? [MLB Trade Rumors]
• DRays Bay interviews a Baseball Economist. Of the approximately 20 questions there are only 3-4 questions that actually cover the economics of baseball, so you have to skip around to find answers to questions that cover a player’s dollar value, the true value of Alex Rodriguez and whether or not Scott Boras could fix the national deficit. [DRays Bay]
• Tom Verducci discusses the importance of a team’s bullpen (a point permanantly engraved in the minds of Rays fans) and how constructing a strong one is both difficult and partly the product of luck. [SI]
• We are not surprised the a bio of Dewon Brazelton doesn’t make a lick of sense. [Baseball]
• Rays Digest takes a look at the 2008 infield, or more accurately, they take a look at Evan Longoria. Words on Longoria: 855. Words on the rest of the infield: 132. [Rays Digest]

The Hangover: Do Small Market Teams Want Empty Stands?

Surprise 10, Scottsdale 1.
Reid Brignac went 1-5 and is now 3-22 (.136) in 5 games. Evan Longoria was 1-4, and is now 6-25 (.240) in 7 games. He also committed 2 errors in the field.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Major League players and managers voted Carlos Pena to be the first baseman on the Sporting News post-season AL all-star squad. [Devil Rays]
• At 6’6″, it does not surprise us that David Price was a basketball star in high school. But did you know that he was also a gold standout? Price’s high school alma mata is retiring his jersey during a ceremony at halftime during the school’s football game. [The Murfreesboro Post]
• A Marketing Professor from Washington University has proposed a new form of revenue sharing for Major League Baseball, arguing that there is little incentive for small-market teams to win under the current format. The proposal would give revenue to teams based on attendance. He argues that teams from small-markets prefer to have empty stadiums under the current plan. Having done a little research in my day, I can tell you that often times, researchers forget that the real-world very rarely mimics the conditions in a lab or on a computer. One factor this professor is ignoring is the psychological impact of the the empty stadium. It is embarrassing for an owner. It is a sign of being a “failure”, and nobody wants to be deemed a failure, even if the team is making more money. Then there is the monetary point-of-view. We are no economists, but it seems like the professor is minimizing the financial impact of winning. We understand that a win in St. Pete is not worth as much money as a win in New York City. But the a lot of win is worth more than the sum of the individual wins, especially when “lots o’ wins” come consistently over several seasons. Advertising revenues go up, TV revenues go up, concession sales go up, and merchandising sales go up. And the later is not just a regional increase. There is most likely to be a bigger impact outside the team’s region when a team is a consistent winner. And of course, there is playoff revenue which can be a huge windfall for a team. And we are willing to bet that all these increases in revenue are not linear, but rather some type of exponential increase. [Newswise]
• Prince of New York believes that the Rays should replace the “clueless” Andrew Friedman with Walt Jocketty or Bill Stoneman, who may be set to resign from the Angels. [Prince of New York]

The Hangover: The Green Uniforms Have Not Yet Been Retired

Surprise 9, Scottsdale 6.
Reid Brignac was 0-4 and is now hitting .118 (2-17) and Evan Longoria was 1-3 with a single and a walk with 2 strike outs. Calvin Medlock pitched a perfect 4 outs with 1 strike out. He now has a 5.06 ERA in 5.1 IP covering 3 appearances. He has struck out 7 while only walking 1.

Here is footage of Evan Longoria’s first AFL at bat. You need to fast forward to the 2:00 mark. It is only a flyball but it is nice to see the Dirt Bag in a Rays uniform swinging the lumber.

Here is footage of Longoria’s only base hit in the AFL’s first week that was not a home run and the swing was not his best

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• The latest mailbag by Bill Chastain originally stated that the new Rays uniforms would be available in local Champs stores on November 9. Now the original question and answer are no longer found in the mailbag. Either the news was inaccurate or more likely, the Rays front office did not want the information made available yet. Oops. So for those of you looking for discounts on the old green uniforms, or for those of you that are looking for expensive material for your winter fireplace, November 9 is your target date. [Devil Rays]
• For those of you that hate the new uniform designs, it could be worse. They could have hired one of these “designers”. [Cleveland Plain-Dealer]
• With the Colorado Rockies advancing to the World Series, the Rays are now one of only three four teams to never appear in the Fall Classic, along with Seattle, Washington and Texas. [6 Things To Consider]
• Ever want to know what Joe Maddon thinks about Bruce Springsteen? Neither did we, but Marc Lancaster seems to think we would be interested. Lancaster lands a 1-on-1 with Maddon in the off-season and he does not ask a single baseball question. [TBO]
• We rarely talk fantasy around these parts. We still haven’t recovered from the Wally Joyner ruining our Rotissirie team ever season. But we need to say something when one person ranks Dioner Navarro as only the 28th best catching option entering 2008. Now we are not saying that Navi is going to have the 3rd highest OPS for catchers in 2008 (as he was in the second half of 2007) but there are at least 15 catchers ranked ahead of Navi that he could out-perform with Don Zimmer strapped to his back. [San Antonio Express-News]
• Jonny Damon has a limited no-trade clause and he has listed the Devil Rays as one of 12 teams that the Yankees are allowed to trade him to. Sounds an awful lot like Judas was forced to list 12 teams and filled the list with teams that would never be interested in trading for the veteran outfielder. Along with the Rays, he also listed Royals, Marlins and Twins, teams that would never be interested in his diminished talent or the $26 million in salary he is due the next two seasons. [Times Herald-Record]
• David Price has reached an agreement to appear on Donruss baseball cards. [Dave and Adam’s Card World Blog]

The Hangover: Evan Longoria Still Hitting Home Runs And Little Else In Arizona

Scottsdale Scorpions (5-0)
Up and down weekend for Evan Longoria in the Arizona Fall League. The Dirtbag homered on Thursday and Friday to bring his streak to 3 straight games with a home run. He is tied for the league lead with 3 home runs and 5 RBI, but only has 1 other hit and is 4-18 (.222). Even more surprising is that Longoria has 8 strikeouts in 5 games with only 1 walk. While Longoria has not been immune to the strikeout, his strikeout to walk ratio has been the most telling stat of his young professional career. In 136 games between Montgomery and Durham, The Dirtbag struck out 110 times compared to 73 walks. A ratio close to 1:1 is usually a strong indicator of future success at higher levels.

Reid Briganc went 2-9 in 2 games over the weekend. Mike Prochaska started on Saturday and was knocked out after giving up 6 runs in 1 inning.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• We have heard and read the calls for the Rays to hire Leo Mazzone as pitching coach after he was let go by the Baltimore Orioles. We have no doubt that Mazzone would be a good pitching coach with the Rays but we have to agree with Rays of Light that he would not be a good fit. If the Rays decide to part ways with Jim Hickey after his recent DUI arrest and after the Rays finished with the worst ERA in baseball, his replacement is most likely already on the payroll. We don’t see any reason to go out and hire Mazzone for something between $500,000 and $1 million when the team’s top coaching prospect is a pitching coach at AAA Durham. Xavier Hernandez has a great track record and already has an existing relationship with many of the Rays young pitchers as well as many of the prospects that will be wearing Rays uniforms in the near future. We would not want the Rays to sign a free agent third baseman with Evan Longoria so close to the majors, so why should the Rays do the same with Hernandez? [Rays of Light]
  
• Ryan Royster was named the Minor League Baseball’s Single-A offensive player of the year. [MiLB]
• U.S.S. Mariner handed out their organizational grades and the Rays were one of only three teams to receive an A. [U.S.S. Mariner]
• The Rays have finished 5th in 9 of the team’s 10 seasons. This promotion only seems logical. Gives new meaning to “One for the thumb” [The Harrumph Herald]

Sweet Fancy Moses! What Do We Do Now?

We have been driving without a license now for two full seasons and for the most part, the car is still in one piece. Somehow we have managed to avoid any text messages from Elijah Dukes or tossed bats from Delmon Young and the two Marcs (Topkin and Lancaster) have yet to find us in a bar at 2 am and challenge us to a fight.

As our readership has grown (90,000 unique visitors in 2007), we decided it is time to grow up a little. That’s right! We have our very own, brand-spankin’ new URL. No longer burdened by the “blogspot” taint, we can now be found at RaysIndex.com.

So what does this mean for you? Well. Now that we are a real website, that means only one thing…PORN! Ok…Ok…No naked pictures of Evan Longoria or bikini pictures of Don Zimmer. In fact, not much will change around here. The old address still works for the time being, but you may want to update your bookmarks as we may decide to dump the Blogspot all-together sometime down the road.

Other changes will be cosmetic in nature. The “Cork Board” in the side panel now has a more professional look to it…and of course by “professional” we really mean, “less amateurish”.

We have a few other ideas, that we may introduce this off-season or sometime during the 2008 regular season, but we may be too busy because we actually have a pretty nice little off-season planned, we’re going to go to Home Depot. Yeah, buy some wallpaper, maybe get some flooring, stuff like that. Maybe Bed, Bath, & Beyond, I don’t know, I don’t know if we’ll have enough time.

The Hangover: Evan Longoria Picks Up In Arizona, Where He Left Off In Durham

Peo Sequaros 5, Scottsdale Scorpions 4.
The Arizona Fall League is under way and several prospects from the Devil Rays organization are on the Scottsdale Scorpions roster, including Evan Longoria and Reid Brignac. Also joining The Dirtbag and the Cajun God of Baseball are pitchers Nick DeBarr, Calvin Medlock, Evan Meek and Mike Prochaska as well as John Jaso and Chris Nowak. On opening day, Longoria and Brignac combined to go 0-7 while Calvin Medlock gave up the tying run despite striking out 3 in 2 innings. Longoria picked up the pace on day 2, with a 2-run home run in the first inning. He finished 1-4. Nick DeBarr pitched a perfect 8th inning.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• The Yankees have spent over $1.1 billion on player salaries since their last world series championship. To date, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays have spent slightly more than $350 million in quest of their first. At this rate, the Rays have another 20 years before they reach futility level of the hapless Yankees…right? [Empyreal Environs]
• ArmchairGM reports “sources” that say the Devil Rays have “serious interest in (Jorge) Posada. This is not going to happen. The Tigers just picked up Pudge Rodriguez’ option at $13 million. Pudge and Posada are both 36. Pudge had an OPS of .714 this season while Posada’s OPS was .969. Pudge played in 129 games compared to 144 for Posada. Posada is going to be seeking $15 million per year for the next 4 years. The Rays may have “serious interest” but they are not paying a 36 year old catcher $60 million. He might be worth it in 2008. But both Pudge and Posada have already pushed the shelf-life of a catcher and are likely to not have much left in the tank. [ArmchairGM]
• Chris Mason was named the AA starting pitcher of the year, Minor League Baseball’s equivalent of the Cy Young award. It is too bad they couldn’t name the award after a former minor league pitcher that had an incredible minor league career. [MiLB]
• If the Rays fail to reach .500 in 2008, Joe Maddon will likely not be brought back for the final year of his contract. If Joe Torre is fired by the Yankees and does not land a job for 2008, the Rays could have considerable interest in signing the manager. The problem is Torre will be 69 in 2009. It is difficult to determine if Torre would be willing to work with a roster that is filled with talented, but very young players. Torre has only ever succeeded with veteran-ladened rosters. It is not out of the realm of possibility, but it is a longshot at best. [One More Dying Quail]
• The Rays released their 2008 schedule and everybody is awfully excited about the return of Lou Piniella. For the third consecutive season, the Ray will open the season on the road and for the second time in three years, the Rays will open the season in Baltimore, risking a cold, bad weather opener. [tampabay.com]
• Rays Digest hands out their team awards. Our favorite is Al Reyes taking home the award for “Best Relief Pitcher”. They could have also named the award, “Only Relief Pitcher” or “Least Suckiest Guy Wearing A Devil Rays Uniform Pretending To Be A Major League Pitcher”. Of course, they somehow came up with four (!) pitchers that were honorable mentions. [Rays Digest]