2008 Tampa Bay Rays Trade Value Index

With the General Manager’s meetings currently underway in Orlando and the Winter Meetings just around the corner, we are now neck deep in baseball’s Hot Stove League.

This off-season, rumors are already swirling concerning several of the Rays top players (Scott Kazmir, Delmon Young, Carl Crawford, etc.). While the chances of one of those players being moved is slim, the Rays are in the market for a shortstop with strong defensive skills as well as a starting pitcher and relief pitchers with pitching skills.

Therefore it is time for us to update our Tampa Bay Rays Trade Value Index (TVI)…

The TVI ranks every player on the current 40-man roster and the top prospects in the organization. Our goal is to determine which players in the organization are the most valuable to the team. Ultimately, when looking at the rankings, the question should be, if the Rays could only keep one of two players (A or B) from the organization, which player would the front office choose to keep. If the answer is player A, he would be ranked ahead of player B.

The rankings consider a number factors in addition to talent and good looks, such as potential, age, contract and depth of position in organization. This last factor comes into effect if one player is stuck behind another player with more ability. For example, Fernando Perez would be a little higher due to his exceptional speed and strong OBP, but loses a little value because he has bad hair, and some more value because the team has Rocco Baldelli, Carl Crawford, BJ Upton, Elijah Duke and Delmon Young ahead of him on the depth chart for outfielders. Another factor is team needs. A pitcher may be ranked ahead of a more “talented” fielder because the team has a stronger need for pitching at the major league level. (Please see the original TVI post for further explanation).

Feel free to tell us where we screwed up in the comments.

[More detailed notes about specific players, follow the Rankings]

CLICK HERE FOR THE ENTIRE RANKINGS 1-68

A couple of notes on the rankings…

• Scott Kazmir retains his hold on the top spot, but now that he is arbitration eligible his lead over the rest of the field is narrower. James Shields along with his dominance, consistency, ability to work late in games and the fact that he is still a year from arbitration, brings him much closer to Kid K. Still, the fact that Kazmir is left-handed still gives the nod.
• BJ Upton leapfrog’s Carl Crawford and Delmon Young and is now the most valuable hitter in the organization. Young may still end up the best of the trio, but questions remain about his power, his glove (not his arm) and his attitude after lashing out at Joe Maddon after the next-to-last game of the year in 2007. Still, barring a trade or the re-emergence of Rocco Baldelli or Elijah Dukes, the Rays outfield is set for at least the next three years.
• We always hesitate to give a very high ranking to a player until they have proven themselves above A-ball. And now that Jake McGee has done that, the power lefty makes a big leap to #6. Edwin Jackson finally started to show some of the promise that scouts have long harped about in the second half of 2007. His arm alone gets him a spot in top 10, however, he needs a strong showing in 2008 (12 wins?) to remain an elite prospect. David Price has yet to throw a pitch as a professional, but his status as the top pick gets him a top-10 nod.
• In the past, there has been a clear distinction between the top 5-6 players and the rest of the field. Now that top-tier includes the entire top-10. Despite his 40 home runs in 2007, Carlos Pena only comes in at #10 because he needs to show that there are no longer holes in swing to be found, he is arbitration eligible and of course his agent is Scott Boras, which means his cost is bound to go up, hurting his value.
• Jeff Niemann remains an enigma at #11, just outside the top-tier. He has yet to show he can dominate at the minor league level and it is starting to look as if the big right-hander may be destined to be a back-of-the-rotation starter.
• Rocco Baldelli and Elijah Dukes, both have the talent to be in the top-10, but each have their issues, hurting any value the two outfielders may have.
• Al Reyes is still a valuable commodity as a proven veteran relief pitcher, but once the season begins, he will start losing value quickly as he is a free agent at the end of the season.
• Reid Brignac is exactly why we hesitate to over-rank players with big numbers at single-A (ie. Heath Rollins). He is still an elite prospect but until he reestablishes his offense at higher levels, his value to the franchise is hurt.
• Akinori Iwamura would be further down the list if he wasn’t destined for second base. Most predicted his power numbers to decline, but nobody could have predicted that a player that once hit 40+ in Japan, would only hit 7 in the States. There is still a chance that he will adjust to the AL and if he does, even a slight improvement in his numbers would make for a valuable second baseman.

THE HANGOVER Andrew Friedman Talking With Mets And Twins

Scottsdale 1, Phoenix 0.
Reid Brignac went 0-4 and is now 12-84 (.143), and he is 1 for his last 31. Evan Meek pitched 2 perfect innings to pick up the win.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• The “Cork Board” on the right side of the page has been updated to reflect minor league free agency.
• Andrew Friedman met with Twins GM Bill Smith yesterday at the GM meetings in Orlando. The Twins have young pitching and are in search of a young slugger. When asked if Delmon Young was discussed, the Minneapolis Star-Tribune was told they were “on the right track”. [Star-Tribune]
• Somebody with the Rays (Andrew Friedman?) met with somebody from the Mets (Omar Minaya?) yesterday at the GM meetings in Orlando. [New York Post]
• Andrew Friedman reiterated what should already be known by all…the Rays do not have anybody on their roster that is untouchable. What good does it do a franchise to say somebody is “untouchable”? If the Yankees offered Phillip Hughes and Joba Chamberlain for Scott Kazmir or the Giants offered Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, would the Rays say ‘no’ just because Kid K was untouchable? Not likely. [tampabay.com]

“We’re not good enough as of (today) to say that anyone is untouchable,” Friedman said. “Obviously, there are players that we’re much less likely to talk about, and it would be much harder for us to deal. That being said, we have to listen to anything and everything. And if there is a team that wants Player X and is offering, in our opinion, a good deal more than Player X, we can’t be afraid to pull the trigger.”

• He doesn’t even have a roster spot yet, but The Sporting News is darn near guaranteeing that Evan Longoria will win AL Rookie of the Year. [The Sporting News]
• Major League Baseball and the Toronto Blue Jays are open to the idea of an April series in Orlando at the oxymoronically named “Champion Field” with the Rays. [tampabay.com]

NEW UNIFORMS The Devil Rays Know How To Be Overdramatic

The time is almost here when the Tampa Bay Devil Rays will announce to the world what we already know. And boy, you would have thought the Rays were set to announce the acquisition of Alex Rodriguez, Johan Santana, Mariano Rivera and the 2008 World Series.

New uniforms. New colors. New logo. New name. Everything is new and Tampa Bay has an All-Star weekend planned to unveil their changes to the public…The festivities kick off on Thursday afternoon in downtown St. Petersburg’s Straub Park, in a free night of excitement for fans of all ages. At 4 p.m. ET the interactive activities kick off the evening…At 5:30 p.m., manager Joe Maddon, Hall of Famer Wade Boggs and former Ray Fred McGriff will hit the catwalk to model the Rays’ new uniforms, logos and colors…Next is a special treat for any baseball fan, but especially those of classic baseball movies. At 6:30 p.m., Kevin Costner and his band, Modern West, will take the stage for a rock-and-roll concert…Thursday evening will conclude with an 8 p.m. fireworks show, but that’s only Day 1 of the entertainment.

That’s right folks. That is just day 1…with fireworks and Kevin Costner. Day 2 is even more jam-packed with F.U.N., including autograph sessions (you won’t want to miss Al Reyes and Dan Wheeler at Southgate Plaza), a picnic and free backrubs from Joe Maddon*.

We like to give the Red Sox and their Nation a lot of crap around these parts for being over-the-top and throwing their greatness in our faces all the time, but when they won their second title in four years, all they scheduled was a parade on some Duck Boats. As far as we know, the only fireworks were in Jonathon Papplebon’s pants.

We are still not sure if we are going to make it out for the festivities. We have a Kevin Costner Shitty Movie Marathon scheduled for those two days, including Water World and The Postman.

*Might have just been a dream we had last night.

Rays giving fans glimpse of new image [Devil Rays]
The New Tampa Bay Rays Uniforms [Rays Index]
Now appearing…[tampabay.com]

THE HANGOVER We Know People Are Desparate For Rumors, But This Is Getting Redunculous

Devil Rays (66-96)

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• The general manager’s meetings are under way in Orlando. [TBO]
• DRaysBay now has more interviews with David Price than Price has pitches thrown as a professional…He bought a new car. [DRaysBay]
• Another trade rumor that has blown up after one writer was just speculating. Tim Lincecum for Delmon Young. Once again, Young’s name got mixed up in this rumor because one blogger was trying to find a match for the Giants. The Rays would make this move in a heartbeat, which means it won’t happen. Nothing to look at here. Keep moving folks…keep moving. [Minor League Ball]
• How awesome was Carlos Pena in 2007? In addition to Comeback Player of the Year, he now can add Latin American Idol winner. Scott Boras will certainly use this to add a few million to Pena’s asking price in the negotiations for a long-term deal. [Fernando’s Blog]
• Future Considerations is counting down their top 30 Rays prospects. They are currently on #25, Elliot Johnson. [Future Considerations]
  

THE HANGOVER The Rays Are Not Shopping Scott Kazmir

Devil Rays (66-96)

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• The big news in the Raysiverse is that Scott Kazmir may be available. Calm down people. Kid K is not going anywhere. First of all, the source used by the New York Post is “An executive familiar with Tampa’s thinking”. So nobody…NOBODY…from the Rays front office said that they were actively shopping Kazmir. Just somebody talking to a reporter for a New York tabloid and speculating what they might do. And quite frankly, if the price for Johan Santana does get ridiculous, then it is only fair for the Rays front office to at least see what could be had for the best young left-hander in the game. Remember last off-season, Rocco Baldelli and Carl Crawford were both made available and no team was willing to meet the price. The price for Kid K will be astronomical and if a team can meet that price, then the Rays will need to make a decision. But we would put the chances of that happening at only slightly above “no chance in hell”. [New York Post]
• Gary Shelton has 20 reasons why A-Rod should join the Devil Rays. He forgot reason #21…The Trop will feel like Yankee Stadium…30,000 Yankees fans booing him. [tampabay.com]
• Jonny Gomes has had a big hand in helping kids fight cancer. [devilrays.com]
• The Devil Rays franchise has become the poster-child for what is wrong with revenue sharing in major league baseball. Critics point to the fact the Rays took in more revenue sharing (>$30 million) than they spent on the team’s payroll (~$25 million). The Rays front office has a plan. We are yet to see if the plan will work but spending money on mediocre free agents so that they can finish 3rd in the East rather than last is not part of the formula. When the core of the franchise is in place, with a solid minor league system in the works to fill the gaps, the team will then spend money on the one or two players needed to get the Rays over the top. Not before then. [New York Times]
• The Stat Pack interviews Will Carrol and he tackles several issues including the Rays medical staff as well as their ability to keep Scott Kazmir healthy. [The Stat Pack]

• The Rays have made a commitment to the medical staff from top to bottom in the organization, something that started in the Naimoli era and continues today. They have a plan that’s supported by everyone in the organization and great people working together to carry it out.

• Rattler Radio is running a series of posts looking at major league franchises and either their last championship or the closest they have come to winning one. The post for the Devil Rays is up and it was probably an easy one to write. [Rattler Radio]
• Former (?) Rays catcher Josh Paul has written a book about the mental side of being a catcher and he sat down with Baseball Prospectus to talk about it. The interview is behind the wall of a BP subscription. [Baseball Prospectus]

RAYS GET NO RESPECT Bill James Is Fixin’ On Gettin’ A Delmon

A short while ago we took exception when Bill James’ list of the top 25 major leaguers under the age of 30. While both Scott Kazmir (#6) and James Shields (#20) made the list, we were surprised that BJ Upton, Carl Crawford and Delmon Young were all left off the list. Well, it turns out that now the list is 50 names long and all three of the young stud hitters are in the second 25.

Upton just misses the top 25, coming in at #27, while Young (41) and Crawford (43) both fall closer tot he bottom. We still believe that Upton and Crawford should be in the top 25 and one can definitely make a case for Young. Upton may have been penalized for missing a month of the season. Had he gone 30-30 at the age of 22, it is hard to imagine that Upton would not be in the top 25.

As for Crawford, he was most likely penalized for being old. Even though the list is for players “under 30”, there is a strong bias towards players that are in their early 20s who have more years left until age 33. Still, CC is one of the most exciting players in the game today and clearly one of the top offensive threats in baseball regardless of age. And while his power numbers did not develop this past season as we had hoped, once they do, CC may propel himself to the top of everybody’s list.

Young is more of an enigma. Many had hoped for more power and better defense from the 21-year old. We were not surprised by the lack of pop, as he is truly a line-drive hitter. Once he becomes more comfortable at the major league level and if he ever learns to wait for his pitch, we will likely see more elevation from his swing. Still, his arm is as good as anybody. Name another right fielder that can throw out Ichiro trying to advance from first to third on a single. And hitting .290 with 90 ribbies on the Rays at age 21 is pretty darn impressive. A 2008 line of .310-25-110 (not out of the question) and Bill James will be Gettin’ a Delmon if Young is not in the top 25 next season.

Bill James Has Never Heard Of Carl Crawford, Delmon Young and BJ Upton [Rays Index]
Young Talent Inventory [SI.com]

THE HANGOVERDevil Rays To Play "Home" Games At Champion Field. Queue The Soiled Underwear Jokes

Team USA 3, Peo Saguaros 0.
Evan Longoria was 0-3 and is now hitting .308 in the Arizona Fall League. Justin Ruggiano did not play. On Wednesday, Longoria went 2-4 with 2 doubles and 2 runs scored in Team USA’s 5-3 win over Surprise. Ruggiano went 1-4 with a triple and an RBI.

Scottsdale 6, Surprise 0.
Mike Prochaska started and pitched 5 shutout innings, allowing only 2 hits and 1 walk with 3 strikeouts. Evan Meek and Calvin Medlock each pitched an inning of relief striking out a combined 3 batters and allowing 2 hits. Each pitcher threw a wild pitch.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• The Devil Rays are currently in negotiations with Disney to play a a series at Disney’s Wild World of Sports for the second consecutive season. If a deal can be reached, the games will be played in the newly named Champion Stadium after a deal was reached with Hanes clothing. The Devil Rays playing home games in “Champion” Stadium? There is no way this ends well in the Blogosphere. [Orlando Sentinel]
• Jim Hickeywill be back in 2008 as the Rays pitching coach. [TBO]
• MLB4U has a list of all the free agents that the Devil Rays will not be pursuing this off-season. [MLB4U]
• Does Matt Silverman have a new girlfriend? Nadya seems to think so. No details though. Damn it. [AOL Journals]
• ArmchairGM takes a look at Evan Longoria. [ArmchairGM]
• When we first read that Rays announcers Dewayne Staats, Joe Magrane and Todd Kalas were all up for the Frick Award we were taken back a bit. The award is presented annually during the Hall of Fame induction ceremonies and is given to a broadcaster that makes major contributions to baseball. We were a bit surprised. They are decent, but never have we thought that they added very much to a game. Not bad. Not great…Then we read the fine print and realized that the only reason they are “up for the award” is because every announce with 10 years experience is up for the award. A final list of 10 candidates will be announced in December. We are still wondering why Bill Chastain decided that this deserved its own piece on DevilRays.com. [DevilRays.com]
• Wanna meet Kevin Costner? Here is your chance. If we win, we are showing up dressed like his character from “The Postman”. [DevilRays.com]
• Tampa Bay Sports Fanatic takes a look at how all the Rays farmhands are performing in the Arizona Fall League. [Tampa Bay Sports Fanatic]