[EVAN LONGORIA] The Evan Longoria/Eva Longoria Jokes Have Commenced

We have professed our love for The Dugout on this site before. And today they are back with another chatroom featuring the Tampa Bay Rays top prospect, Evan Longoria and his alter-ego, Eva Longoria, who gives young Evan some investment advice.

As Rays fans the Eva/Evan Longoria name-similaritiness seems like old news. We have joked about it. We have talked about it. Sometimes we even see a headline (LIKE THIS, or THIS) and go ‘huh-wha!?!’. But we need to come to terms with the reality that we live in very special place. The Raysiverse. And the population is not very big and news from within the Raysiverse does not travel very far, unless of course a player chucks a bat at an umpire or threatens the lives his wife and children.

Of course we would probably enjoy this more if he was named Selman Hayek…Just Sayin’.

The Dugout: Stocks, pt. 1 [AOL Fanhouse]

[THE HANGOVER] Edwin Jackson Now More Likely To Be On Rays Opening-Day Roster

Tampa Bay Rays (17 days until pitchers and catchers report)
We hope you didn’t forget to add blueberries to your pancakes this morning. It is National Blueberry Pancake Day. But don’t worry. If you screwed that up, Joe Maddon will point out how well you tied your shoes this morning.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• There was never much life to the rumors of a potential deal to send Edwin Jackson to the Mariners. If there was a pulse, news that Eric Bedard has been traded to the M’s just killed it. It is not out of the realm of possibility that the Mariners would still want Jackson, but they just acquired a much better starting pitcher and it cost them a king’s ransom (Adam Jones). [Seattle Times]
  
• The Rays Way argues that Evan Longoria should start the season in AAA and cites the success of Ryan Braun and the mediocrity of Ryan Braun as examples of why. [The Rays Way]
• Rays of Light points out that Marc Topkin wouldn’t make a very good General Manager. The “team” of free agents that Topkin suggests, reminds us a lot of the 2006 Royals, who brought in a bunch of “names” that people knew that really had poor career numbers. The were considered true “baseball players” and a great presence in the clubhouse. That team lost 100 games. [Rays of Light]
• Bill Madden named Andrew Friedman as one of two GMs that had the best off-season. [Daily News]
• Rays Digest points out that not everybody believes that the James Shields deal is a good one for the Rays. In addition, they project the Rays 2011 lineup, which we guess is made under the assumption that the Rays will not make any trades or sign any free agents and no players will get hurt in the next three seasons. Seems reasonable. [Rays Digest]

[THE HANGOVER] New Deals For Shields And Pena May Keep Both From Being Traded During Arbitration Years

Tampa Bay Rays (18 days until pitchers and catchers report)
Just the links today as we mourn the 15th anniversary of the passing of one of our childhood faves, Andre the Giant, and wish a happy birthday to another one of our childhood faves, Keith Olbermann. What better way to celebrate then to bake a chocolate cake on National Chocolate Cake Day!

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• In Marc Topkin’s latest piece, he speculates on what James Shields’ deal means for Scott Kazmir. Kazmir says that the deal has little bearing on his contract status as they are in difference situations (Kazmir is in his arbitration years). Later on in the piece Topkin raises a good point we had not considered before in regards to the recent deals for Shields and Carlos Pena. He states that even though the deals only take away a minimal number of free agent years, the contracts will also keep the Rays from being forced to trade one or the other at any time during their arbitration years. So while the players were locked up for X number of years prior to the deals (five years in Shields case) the deals do make it easier for the team to keep the players during those locked-up years. [St. Pete Times]

Shields’ deal technically would only keep him around for two extra free-agent seasons, but another benefit of these type of deals is cost certainly during arbitration years, which could prevent the Rays from having to trade him, as the Marlins did when arbitration-eligible Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis became too expensive.

• The Bradenton Herald says that the moves made this off-season are not a ploy by the team to earn support for a new stadium, and the timing is just a coincidence. [Bradenton Herald]
• Jim Hickey expects the bullpen to be much better in 2008 (Couldn’t be any worse). But what is interesting in the piece, when Hickey speaks of Troy Percival, Al Reyes, Dan Wheeler and Gary Glover. “When I end up talking about bullpen guys, you always talk about if you’re comfortable sending a guy out there, and right there are four guys I’m comfortable sending out there in pretty much any situation at all.” It is pretty clear from that quote, that Glover will be on the opening day roster. In our most recent 25-man roster projection (in the sidebar), we did not have Glover’s position listed as “secure”. We will have to change that in our next evaluation. That leaves three spots in the ‘pen. Long Reliever is likely to be one of the starting pitchers that does not win a spot in the rotation. Lefty-Specialist is a player-to-be-signed later. The final spot is up for grabs with Juan Salas and Scott Dohmann being the leading candidates (Salas has a minor league option remaining). [TBO]
• DRays Bay takes a look at every player invited to Spring Training and what each player’s chances are of making the team. [DRays Bay]
• Fox Sports lists Andy Sonnanstine as one of ten players that could break out in 2008. [Fox Sports]

With guys like Scott Kazmir, James Shields and Matt Garza in the Tampa Bay rotation, it’s easy to forget about Sonnanstine. However, he’s impressive in his own right. Sonnanstine boasts a low arm angle, an array of pitches, and an ability to change speeds. None of his offerings wow scouts, but in four minor-league seasons he logged a 2.56 ERA and a stellar strikeout-to-walk ratio of 6.2 to 1. Last season in Tampa, Sonnanstine struggled in terms of keeping runs off the board, but he did strike out more than three times as many batters as he walked. Given his command skills, Sonnanstine is one to watch in 2008.

• Evan Longoria will wear #3 in Spring Training. He wears #6 in the minors.
• The Rays have signed relief pitcher Scott Munter to a minor league contract. Munter was a 47th round selection of the Giants in 2000 and somehow has managed to earn three different stints with the Giants despite a career minor league record that includes almost as many walks (134) as strikeouts (175 in 334.1 innings). [Baseball America]
• RotoAuthority has their projection for James Shields numbers in 2008. Interestingly, the projection calls for a year not quite as a good as last year, with 13 wins and a 4.06 ERA. [RotoAuthority]

[THE HANGOVER] Rays Claim To Be Losing Money Despite Revenue Sharing That Exceeds Payroll

Tampa Bay Rays (19 days until pitchers and catchers report)
Just links today on Bob Eucker’s birthday, the 10th anniversary of “I did not have sexual relations with that woman“, Australia Day, and National Peanut Brittle Day. We will celebrate by cooking some peanut brittle with our grandmother, and then hooking up with an overweight girl at an Outback Steakhouse while sitting in the front row.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Matthew Silverman claims the Rays are losing money. This is despite a report in Forbes that claims the opposite. We always take a team’s assertion with a very large grain of salt. Just about every owner in every sport claims they are losing money and yet people that are very smart when it comes to money keep buying them. Many times, making money or losing money is often a matter of perspective. For example, teams that own their own stadium, often list “rent” as an expense since the stadium is usually listed as a separate business. So even though the money is just going out of one pocket and into the other, the team still lists the rent as an expense for the team. This doesn’t work in the case of the Rays, but we have to wonder if they are considering the $30+ million in revenue sharing that the team received last year. We do not know what the Rays exact take was in revenue sharing for 2007, but the team was given more that $30 million in 2006. With a 2007 opening day payroll of approximately $28 million, it is fair to say the Rays took in more Revenue Sharing then they spent on payroll. We are not accountants, but it seems to us that it would require some pretty fuzzy math to show how the Devil Rays lost money in 2007. [365 Days of Dough, Rays and Me]
  
• We participated with several other Rays’ bloggers in a “round table” discussion at Rays Anatomy in which we tackled the question “Who is the one player that is MOST important to the Rays future success?” [Rays Anatomy]
• The Heater got their hands on Baseball America’s complete list of the Rays top 30 prospects. We were treated to the Top 10 about two weeks ago, so this list just adds 20 players of which one or two will ever wear a Tampa Bay Rays uniform. [TampaBay.com]
• Kevin Gengler continues his rundown of his own list of the Rays Top 30 prospects. He is up to #18 and #17, Justin Ruggiano and Josh Butler. If you looked up AAAA-player in the dictionary of baseball you will see a picture of Justin Ruggiano holding his hands out saying “but I am above-average at a lot of things”. And that will keep him from selling cars for a few more years. He could be serviceable as a fourth outfielder on a lot of teams, but he does not have the skill-set to be an everyday major leaguer. Butler on the other hand we feel is flying a bit under the radar. He was the second-round pick the year the Rays selected Evan Longoria. He was solid last season, if not spectacular, in his first full season split between Columbus and Vero Beach. We will get a better idea of what he is this year once he makes his AA debut. [DRays Bay]
• Jim Callis took the top ranked prospect from each organization and ranked those 30 players. Evan Longoria comes in at #4. [Baseball America]
  
• Bill Chastain tries to rankle our feathers by devoting an entire column to the Rays’ attempt to keep the young talent in place. Luckily for Chastain, he waited until after the Rays signed James Shields and he includes speculation that the Rays will attempt similar deals with Scott Kazmir and BJ Upton. Nice try Bill. I’m not biting on this one. In fact if somebody was going to write an article on this topic, this is the way it needed to be done. [DevilRays.com]
• Derek Feldkamp tries to rebound from a poor 2007. Interestingly, Feldkamp feels more comfortable in the bullpen even though the team continues to utilize him as a starter. Used primarily as a relief pitcher at the University of Michigan, Feldkamp saved 15 games in his pro debut at Hudson Valley in 2005. Since then, the Rays have used him primarily as a starter. [The Daily-Telegram]
  

[BLOGGING IS NOT JOURNALISM] Please Do Not Accuse Us Of Trying To Be Journalists

Yesterday Big Daddy Drew at Deadspin addressed the subject of Blogging as Journalism. It is an excellent read and I highly recommend for anybody that spends time reading blogs, to take five minutes and read it. It is my feeling that this debate is at the core of much of the criticism that has been leveled at this site, both in the comments and in emails.

Some feel that at times I can be overly critical of newspaper columnists and websites that cover the Rays. What people need to realize is that Rays Index is just a chronicle of what is going on in the Raysiverse mixed with my occasional editorialization. Some of those thoughts have been molded by talking with others before I write, but make no mistake, the words on this page are mine and mine alone. One person’s opinion. If you disagree with me, I must ask why you hate freedom. Or maybe I am wrong. That is what the comments section is for, and I promise those comments are never censored.

I am not a journalist, nor am I trying to be a journalist or pretending to be a journalist. It should be obvious that there is a clear distinction between the writings at this site and the work that is done at The Tampa Tribune or The St. Pete Times. And while it may not be as obvious, many of the same distinctions are what separates this site from another Rays “blog”, DRays Bay.

Many of the criticisms directed at this site are for the way I have treated writers at DRays Bay. Sports blogs come in all different shapes, sizes and colors. Unlike most blogs, including this one, Drays Bay is trying to be a journalistic entity and some of the writers at Drays Bay aspire to be professional sports writers. One has even written a book on the Rays. They try to give you breaking news. They do interviews. They present everything to you in real time, whether it be important or not. They have 284 different writers and 10,000 different things you can click on their front page. They are the Yahoo! of Rays websites.

At RI, I don’t often write until I have had a chance to discuss the topic, think the topic through, feel out multiple sides to the topic. It gives me a chance to offer a well-thought out evaluation of what has happened, what has been said, and what has been written…and maybe insert a poop joke or two. And quite frankly a lot of the topics don’t need much discussion, so they go in the “Devil Rays Webtopia” the next morning. But if something is written that is idiotic, silly or just plain wrong, I will voice my opinion and make sure that Rays fans are made aware as to why I feel the other piece is crap. It does not matter whether the original piece was presented by the Tribune, the Times, DRays Bay or Martha’s Beanie Baby Blog.

From Big Daddy Drew’s post on Deadspin…

The problem is that many journalists, and in turn many readers, have a deeply held belief that the printed word (on paper or electronically) holds more weight than the spoken word. That it is somehow sacrosanct. But that’s not true on blogs, or on message boards, or on text messages. In these new forms of media, the written word is just as disposable and frivolous as a conversation between me and you (and talking with me is like taking a dip in an empty kiddie pool). And it’s foolish to assume otherwise. Most sports blogs are run by fans, and serve mainly as an online extension of the friendly banter we all engage in about sports on a daily basis. It’s not journalism. It’s a blog. It’s its own thing, and the two needn’t be confused.

I have no aspirations to be a journalist, so I am not worried about offending anybody. I don’t care if the team gets upset with something I write, because I am not seeking interviews. I don’t care if I insult Marc Lancaster or Marc Topkin, because I am not trying to get a job with the Tribune or the Times. That allows me to truly speak to you as one fan would speak to another. You may not agree with my evaluation, but it is mine…uncensored.

I would like to think that this gives RI a level of objectivity that you will not find elsewhere. Unlike journalists, or those that aspire to be journalists, we are not beholden to the hands that feed us. We feed ourselves.

As for Rays of Light? They are a blog like us…minus the asshole and the 8th grade humor…Wait…Never mind.

The Super Bowl Bye Week Jamboroo, In Which Drew Pauses To Make A Serious Point About Blogging As Journalism, Then Makes Chili [Deadspin]

[THE HANGOVER] Brett Grandstrand Leads Rays March To Top Organization

Tampa Bay Rays (20 days until pitchers and catchers report)
As you may have noticed, we are in the process of playing with the layout and design of this website. Most of the changes will be subtle, so don’t expect any grand redevelopment. Most of the changes will be to the sidebar. For the most part, the site should remain operational during the tune-up but certain features may be hit-or-miss for the next day or two as we try to decide what we like best.

Best,
The Professor
Rays Index

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• This list has not been released yet, and it comes as no surprise, but the Tampa Bay Rays are ranked as the #1 organization by Baseball America. After all, what other organization can boast Brett Grandstrand? [Nationals Farm Authority]
• Baseball America takes a look at the hardest throwing pitchers in the minors, including Jake McGee. [Baseball America]
• Rays Anatomy offers two points of view on Akinori Iwamura and what we can expect from him in 2008. You can read my full comments at the end of the post, but in short, this is a classic example of people depending too much on statistics to evaluate a player. [Rays Anatomy]
• Pinellas County has green-lighted a project to be built similar to the redevelopment proposed for Tropicana Field on a tract of land less than ten miles north of Tropicana Field. The Pinellas County Commissioner is not sure that the county can support the building of both projects. [TBO]
• Carlos Pena returned from the Dominican Republic and passed his physical, which was the only thing holding up his new 3-year $24.125 million contract. [TampaBay.com]

[PROJECTING STATS] Right Field and DH To Be Much Improved In 2008

Bill Chastain has his latest installment of “Around the Horn” in which he previews the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays “positions”. This time it is the outfielders. The most telling statement in the piece is a quote from Joe Maddon in which he states that he would prefer to not use Cliff Floyd in right field very often.

“If Rocco is well, that really relieves a lot of outfield pressure,” Maddon said. “That defines that. Rocco backs up in left, Rocco backs up in center, Rocco DHs, then you feel comfortable with Gomes, because you don’t want to put Cliff out there too often, from what I understand. It just doesn’t sound like the wise thing to do [based on his injury history].”

So let’s say that Gomes and Rocco start every game against a left-handed pitcher, and Floyd starts every game versus a right-handed pitcher, with Gomes and Rocco splitting time against right-handers. In 2007 the Devil Rays played 46 games in which the opposing team’s starting pitcher was left-handed, and 116 games versus right-handed pitchers. If all three players remain healthy all season (I know, I know…just appease me for a second) this suggests that the triumvirate will make the following number of starts in 2008…

Player	vRHP	vLHP	TOTAL
Rocco Baldelli	58	46	104
Cliff Floyd	116	0	116
Jonny Gomes	58	46	104

Of course that can (and probably will) be affected by various leg ailments during the season, but the benefit of this situation is that, in theory, none of the players would have to play in the field for more than approximately 60 games, slightly more for Baldelli and/or Gomes if Maddon does limit Floyd to DH duties.

Just prior to the Cliff Floyd signing, we projected what that would mean for the Rays’ right field production in 2008. In that assessment we excluded Baldelli. Now let’s project all three players stats, based on their averages from the past three seasons. In the case of Floyd we will use his averages versus right-handed pitchers and for Baldelli and Gomes we will weight the averages based on the expected number of starts versus lefties and righties.

Player	BA	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	OPS
Rocco Baldelli	.270	17	59	.317	.484	.801
Cliff Floyd	.281	20	67	.368	.472	.840
Jonny Gomes	.258	21	57	.353	.491	.844

What is interesting about splitting the at bats up in this manner is how similar the stat lines are for all three players. Outside of Baldelli’s OBP, the numbers are nearly identical. When we originally started playing with these numbers, we assumed that in the long run, we could see Baldelli stealing at bats from Gomes, but the numbers show that Gomes would actually post slightly better numbers than the other two.

In the end it appears as though we can expect approximately 58 home runs, 183 RBI and a .829 OPS from two positions. In 2007 Devil Rays’ right fielders and DHs did not fair so well…

Position	BA	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	OPS
DH (2007)	.241	16	63	.329	.378	.707
RF (2007)	.281	17	95	.314	.421	.736
RF/DH (2007)	.262	33	158	.321	.400	.721
RF/DH (2008 Proj.)	.270	58	183	.347	.482	.829

This is not a knock on Delmon Young. We fully expect that Young would have improved his stat line in 2008 had he been manning right field for the Rays. Rather we are just trying to guestimate the level of improvement that the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays RF/DH will have over the 2007 Tampa Bay Devil Rays RF/DH. And if the players remain healthy and perform to their norms, the improvement will be significant.

Or more likely Baldelli will pull a hamstring while sleeping and will miss most of the season. Yeah. Nevermind.

Around the Horn: Outfielders [DevilRays.com]

[THE HANGOVER] Tampa Bay Rays Reward James Shields With Long-Term Deal

Tampa Bay Rays (21 days until pitchers and catchers report)
Yesterday the Tampa Bay Rays announced that they had reached an agreement with James Shields on a contract that could be for as long as seven years and worth just under $38 million. With incentives the deal could reach as much as $44 million. The last three years of the deal are team options which gives the team a fair amount of insurance in case of an injury or an unexpected drop in performance.

This is a great deal for the Rays. They get a young proven pitcher for a below-market price and do not have to worry about going to arbitration with him in two years. But, despite what many are saying this is not a deal about retaining the young talent. Shields was going to be here for the next five years without a new deal. And projecting Shields and the team ahead to the 2013 and 2014 seasons is a crap-shoot at best. What kind of pitcher will he be six years from now? What will the team look like six years from now? Nobody knows the answers to those questions.

No. This is not about retaining the young talent. Marc Lancaster is the only writer, whether it be professional, blogger or message board specialist, we have seen yet that “gets it”.

The Rays didn’t have to do this deal, which guarantees Shields at least $11.25 million during the next four seasons and could max out at $44 million with options and incentives. Shields would have been under Tampa Bay’s control through 2012 anyway, and the cost to keep him wasn’t likely to reach outrageous levels even if he continued to improve once he entered his arbitration years.

But the Rays saw an opportunity to make a statement after Shields had his agent contact them last fall to gauge their interest in a long-term deal, even though he had just pitched his first full season in the majors. Here was the rare player with enough faith in the organization that he was willing to surrender his first two years of free agency.

Rays executive vice president Andrew Friedman said he liked the message that rewarding Shields with a long-term deal so early in his career would send to Tampa Bay’s young players. The Rays certainly wouldn’t mind if some of the team’s more established players, the rest of baseball and their fan base picked up on it, too.

This deal does send a message. Not a message to the fans that the Rays will do whatever it takes to keep the young talent. If that was the case why isn’t Scott Kazmir under a long-term contract yet? He is due to be a free agent before Shields. Or what about Carl Crawford, who is set to become a free agent in three years, two years sooner than Shields would have hit the market. No. The real message is about rewarding the younger players that perform well.

Yesterday in “The Hangover“, and the day before in the comments section, we speculated that the new contract would most likely only give Shields a slight bump in salary in 2008 and 2009, the two seasons prior to when he would be arbitration eligible. Teams do not have to open the wallets in a players first three seasons, no matter how well they perform on the field. The Rays showed they are willing to reward the younger players. A move that will be noticed by other players within the Rays organization and hopefully by players in other organizations. The Rays did not have to give Shields much more than $0.5-0.7 for the next two seasons. Players that sign long-term deals prior to their arbitration years almost never make more than that in those seasons. Shields, however, will make $2.5 million combined the next two years.

To us that is the biggest surprise of the contract. In the grand scheme of things, it does not seem like much to us, but to a player like Shields, who was not a “bonus baby” first-round draft pick, a raise of more than 150% is a big deal.

A big deal that the team hopes won’t go unnoticed by the other players. Perform well and we will reward you.

Shields’ deal could be worth $44 million. [TampaBay.com]
Shields deal sends message [TBO]

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Gary Shelton calls Stuart Sternberg the “MVP of the most impressive offseason the Rays have had since, well, ever”. We are not sure why everybody is surprised by the moves made this off-season. The Rays are doing exactly what they have always said they would do. Last off-season, the Royals gave $55 million to Gil Meche. Many fans wondered why the Rays weren’t willing to go and sign a free agent pitcher like Meche. And while Meche did post a 3.67 ERA, he finished 9-13 for a team that won more games (69) than the Rays did (66), and finished in last place. Money well spent? Shields finished 12-8 and the Rays just rewarded him with a $38 million contract. In other words, a player like Meche would not have made a lick of difference on the 2007 Tampa Bay Rays, but the team would have wasted money. Would he make a difference on the 2008 Rays? Maybe. He has won more than 11 games only once in his career. But what about 2009 when players like David Price and Wade Davis and Jake McGee are ready? There is a good chance at least one if not two of those players will be better pitchers as rookies than Gil Meche will ever be. Singing Meche last year would have been a waste of money and a waste of a spot in the rotation. [St. Pete Times]
• The Baseball Authority takes a look at the James Shields deal and believes that spending more than $40 million on a young player with promise is much smarter than spending $40 million on a free agent pitcher with limited upside such as Carlos Silva. We whole-heartedly agree. We have broken down the numbers before. Free agent pitchers rarely live up to their contracts. [The Baseball Authority]
• Epic Carnival believes that the James Shields deal is yet another example of why the Rays are moving in the right direction. [Epic Carnival]
• The final 2007 payrolls have been tabulated and yes, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays still had the lowest payroll in baseball at $31.8 million. That number is slightly higher than most figures that have been quoted for the D-Rays payroll, as it also includes signing bonuses, incentives, and extra money Jonny Gomes received dancing at Mons Venus. Ten teams were over $100 million including the Yankees ($218.3 million) and the Red Sox ($155.4 million). [SI.com]
• Fake Teams takes a look at Carlos Pena and wonders what we can expect from him in 2008. The
  final verdict is about 37 home runs. Seems like a reasonable number. [Fake Teams]
• USA Today compares the short histories of baseball’s last four expansion franchises. [USA Today]
• Mad Friars also takes a look at the four most recent expansion franchises and the roads they have taken to success (or lack thereof). [Mad Friars]
• DRays Bay takes a look back at how the Rays fared in the 2001-2005 drafts. [DRays Bay]
• The Tampa Bay Rays 2008 FanFest will be held on Feb.23 at Tropicana Field. Regular season tickets will also go on sale that day. [DevilRays.com]

[2008 ROSTER] 2008 25-Man Roster And Starting Lineup Projections

The 2008 25-man roster prediction is based only on players currently within the organization and will be updated when trades are consummated and free agents are signed.

We are now less than a month away from Spring Training and after the recent flurry of contracts signings with the Rays arbitration-eligible players, we now have a much better idea of what the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays roster will look like and what the opening day payroll will be. Yesterday we take a look at the projected 40-man roster and payroll. Today we update our 25-man roster projection.

Notes on the projection can be found after the roster…

A FEW NOTES ON THE 25-MAN ROSTER…

• Lineup: The only spot in the starting lineup that has not been resolved is third base. We are now working under the assumption that Evan Longoria will begin the season in Durham in order to delay the start of his arbitration clock gain some more experience. This means that the most-days third baseman will either be Willy Aybar or Joel Guzman. We are pulling for Guzman because he has the better glove and there is a chance he could get hot and pique the interest of another team before the trade deadline. In reality, the starter will most likely be Aybar. It is not a terrible move. He does sport a career OBP of .387.
• Bench: Only one of the four bench spots seems locked at this point (Jonny Gomes), and really he will be part of the RF/DH Ghidorah. MIke DiFelice’s experience will almost certainly give him the backup catcher’s position, but Shawn Riggans will be given a shot. The odd-man out at third base (Joel Guzman or Willy Aybar) will served as the “utility” player, but we wonder if Aybar can handle several positions he has never played. The team will most likely give the last spot to Ben Zobrist to be the back-up shortstop. He is also a switch-hitter. If Aybar is the third baseman, and Guzman is on the bench, the Rays will need Benny Boo Boo as the only “left-handed” bat.
• Rotation: Five will compete for the final two spots, including the three incumbents Edwin Jackson, Andy Sonnanstine and Jason Hammel as well as JP Howell and Jeff Niemann. Jackson and Hammel are out of options, but that only means a little. If one does not make the roster the team will pull off a trade before opening day. Out of Jackson, Hammel and Howell, one will be in the bullpen as the long reliever/spot starter. Sonnanstine seems to have the firmest grip on his spot. That leaves one spot and four pitchers. If the season started today, Jackson would have the spot and Hammel would be in the bullpen. But the Rays are going to give Jeff Niemann every chance to take that spot from Jackson. He will be 25 on opening day and should be 100% healthy.
• Bullpen: The 7th, 8th and 9th innings are spoken-for. The long-reliever will be one of the odd-men out of the rotation. That leaves three spots. One will go to a left-handed reliever the team has yet to sign. The final two spots will be a battle in spring training between Gary Glover, Scott Dohmann and Juan Salas. Salas is the only member of that group with a minor league option, but if he out-performs the other two in the spring he will be on the roster and one of the other two will either be traded or DFA’d.

[THE HANGOVER] Don’t Expect A Let Down, BJ Upton Is That Good

Tampa Bay Rays (22 days until pitchers and catchers report)
Rays Anatomy is up with their next installment of “The Great Debates”. This time it is BJ Upton versus Robinson Cano. Before we get to Upton, let us say that we would take either on our team. In fact, for those of you that have not watched many Yankees games the past three years or have been blinded by the lineup filled with $15-25 million dollar players, Cano is one of the best hitters in baseball. Not one of the best young hitters. One of the best hitters. Period. If he laid the bat a little bit flatter in his stance, we would swear Rod Carew came out of retirement.

However, today we want to rant about BJ Upton and all the nay-sayers that think Upton is in for a big let-down in 2008. We are going to pick on EJ Fagan from “The Great Debates” series, but rest-assured, we have seen this exact same argument in a dozen different places.

For people that have not seen Upton play on a regular basis and try to evaluate his 2007 season, they must rely on new-age stats to try and poke holes in his breakout performance. This is fine with most players, but may not necessarily work for a player like BJ Upton. These stats often look at factors like, where the ball landed, fly ball vs. ground ball, lined drive percentage, etc. Fagan uses three of the most common stat lines (BABIP, HR/FB, LineDrive%) when evaluating Upton. In all three cases, Upton’s numbers in 2007 were higher than normal/expected and on paper indicate that Upton was the beneficiary of good luck.

The problem with these stats is that they cannot account for one factor that could explain Upton’s numbers. That factor is speed. As in bat speed and foot speed.

First bat speed: Upton hits the ball hard, more consistently than almost any other player we have ever seen. Upton is able to generate an enormous amount of bat speed and as a result, when he does make contact the ball explodes off of his bat. This can very easily lead to inflated states that make it appear as if Upton is “lucky”. Take a hard ground ball, five feet to the left of the short stop. Upton hits the ball hard enough that a ball in that spot has a good chance of going through for a base hit. If a player like Dioner Navarro hits a ball in the exact same spot, it is probably an out. In other words, Upton can hit the ball to more parts of the field than average player in which the swing results in a base hit. He has more room for error. That is not “luck”. It is talent.

Now consider foot speed: Upton is fast. One of the faster players in baseball. Now take the same ground ball in the previous paragraph and let’s assume the short stop fields the ball. He is moving to his right, towards the hole and away from first base. There are not many shortstops in baseball, if any, that will throw out Upton. Now again, let’s consider Navarro. In his case, the shortstop has a chance to set his feet and make a strong throw. Navarro will probably be out.

Those two factors have a direct bearing on stats such as BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play). In 2007 Upton posted a .393 BABIP, which is very high. His expected BABIP was .316. As we have shown Upton’s BABIP should be higher than an average player, and should be higher than would be expected based on where the ball was hit. In addition, Upton’s bat speed can explain his high rate of home runs and line drives. Plain and simple, the guy hits the ball hard. More fly balls will end up as home runs and more balls will be rated as line drives.

It is natural to be skeptical of breakout performance such as Upton’s. But in this case, the regular stat line does not lie. Upton is that good. He will continue to strikeout a lot, but it will not keep him from becoming the first 30-30 player in Rays history in 2008.

The “Great Debates” – BJ Upton vs. Robsinson Cano [Rays Anatomy]

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• The Heater is reporting that the Rays will announce a long-term contract for James Shields. A 2 p.m. press conference has been scheduled. The deal is believed to be for four years and $12 million, with three option years that would bring the total package up to $38 million with another $2 million in incentives. As was noted in the comments of yesterday’s post the deal is not likely to have a significant impact on the Rays’ payroll in 2008 or 2009. Shields was set to make close to the league minimum the next two years, and the new contract may give him a slight boost, but it will not be for more than $0.5-0.7 million each year. [TampaBay.com]
• Rocco Baldelli was in Scotland last week and took in a Celtic football match. The Daily Record interviewed the Rays center fielder DH. We love how they refer to Baldelli as “a man who has made his name and his fortune from agility, pace and handling skills.” Sometimes it is hard to remember that Rocco is a pretty good baseball player. [DailyRecord.com via TBO]
• The Sporting News ranks the Rays outfield as the 7th best in the AL. [The Sporting News]

Crawford and Upton have a rare combination of speed and power. Upton could grow into a 30-homer , 30-steal performer. Gomes, like many Rays, strikes out way too much.

• BJ Upton, Justin Upton and Michael Cuddyer are set to build an indoor sports training facility in Virginia Beach, Virginia. [PilotOnline.com]