[THE HANGOVER] John Jaso And Dioner Navarro Would Make An Ideal Platoon In 2009

Tampa Bay Rays (28 days until pitchers and catchers report)

Rays Anatomy points to a Jim Callis chat at ESPN.com in which Callis believes the Rays catcher in 2010 will be John Jaso. We are big believers in Jaso, a 12th-round selection in the 2003 draft, and eagerly await the opportunity to see him play at Durham this year.

While there is little chance we will see Jaso at the big league level in 2008, if Navarro fails to step-up his game offensively and defensively this season, a Navi-Jaso platoon is not out of the question for 2009. We have argued in the past that Navarro should become a full-time right-handed hitter. In the past three seasons combined, Navarro has posted an .804 OPS right-handed compared to a .635 OPS left-handed. In fact, in one two-game stretch this past season, Navarro was forced to bat right-handed against a right-handed pitcher due to a sore wrist. In one of those games, Navi collected a career-high four hits.

Navi may be perfectly capable of being a successful big league switch-hitter, but the process is much more difficult for a catcher. While other fielders get to spend a large amount of time in the cage, honing their hitting skills, catchers need to work on blocking pitches, footwork on throws to second, sitting in on pitchers meetings, catching pitchers during their bullpen sessions, scouting other team’s hitters, work on calling a game and having their heads rubbed for luck. So the amount of time spent on the offensive aspect of their game is already reduced. Now take that and cut it in half for a switch-hitter as Navarro need to do everything twice…once from each side of the plate.

Jaso, a left-handed hitter, has battled injuries his entire minor league career, but that has not kept him from posting a .300 batting average and .800 OPS each of the past four seasons. He has also posted a very impressive 208:178 strikeout-to-walk ratio during his minor league career. In part due to injuries and in part due to the slow maturation of catchers in general, Jaso has moved through the system slowly but methodically. He has never been promoted in-season and has spent a full season at each level.

Jaso will most likely spend the 2008 season at AAA Durham. If this season is similar to the rest, statistically, and Jaso can remain healthy, he will be given every opportunity to win a job with the 2009 Tampa Bay Rays.

Jaso, The Trio and Other Rays News and Notes [Rays Anatomy]

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• The Heater is reporting that the Rays are close to a deal with Jonny Gomes. The deal would be for approximately $1.25 million, with incentives. If the numbers are accurate, that would be about $500,000 more than we predicted. [TampaBay.com]
• Armchair GM takes a look at the Rays Top 10 Prospects (according to Baseball America) and looks at each player a little closer. [ArmchairGM]

…most importantly, Baseball America has ranked Tampa’s Minor League Organization number one in all of baseball in each of the past two seasons. Three of their four top prospects are pitchers, and if even two of them make an impact, the Rays will become very good, very quickly. Combined with their already formidable group of young position players (the Rays fielded the second youngest overall team in the majors last season), they should soon be able to hang with the likes of the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees.

• Bill Chastain continues his examination of the Rays. Today’s “position” is the middle infield, featuring Akinori Iwamura, Jason Bartlett and Ben Zobrist, whom Joe Maddon says is the backup middle infielder as of now. [DevilRays.com]
• Akinori Iwamura spent the off-season in Japan working with his former infield coach of the Yakult Swallows on his transition to second base. Muu-Rah has set four goals for 2008…He wants to hit .300, score 100 runs, remain healthy and play October baseball. Finally…somebody that get’s it. [TBO]
• “Ten pitching seasons to forget”. Or as we like to call it…”The 2006 Tampa Bay Devil Rays”. Seriously though. How is there not one single Devil Ray on this list? Not even Ryan Rupe from 2001? In their defense, Jae Seo and Casey Fossum from last season did not pitch enough innings to qualify. And if not for the 4-hit shutout, Edwin Jackson most likely is on the list (his numbers appear to just miss the cutoff). We went back and looked…We were shocked to see that Fossum and Seo only made ten starts apiece. Twenty starts total? Felt more like 50. In fact they were both out of the rotation by June. Wow. And to think the Rays were actually flirting with .500 during that time period. [The Hardball Times]

[GREG DUPAS] Greg Dupas Holds The Ball Like An Egg And The Batters Scramble It

Last week we unveiled our Meta-Analysis of the Rays top prospects. Nowhere to be found on the list is the prospect pictured above, Greg Dupas (the one standing). Dupas was an undrafted free agent signing by the Rays in 2003. After missing all of 2004, Dupas rebounded in 2006 with 25 saves and a 1.93 ERA for the SW Michigan Devil Rays. He was unable to maintain the momentum last year with Vero Beach recording only 6 saves and a 5.33 ERA.

While his baseball numbers may not warrant inclusion on our list of the Rays top prospects, maybe we should have considered his cooking skills.

When Greg, 23, isn’t throwing from March, when spring training starts, through September, he’s home in Riverside, and he’s cooking at his parents’ home and that of his girlfriend, Lindsay Ridgeway.

“Greg is such a wonderful cook,” Lee (Girlfriend’s mom) said. “What’s so remarkable about him is his enthusiasm for cooking, and he’s so young. … I think he’s a remarkable young man. He could almost start a whole new career if he had to.”

“I actually like creating my own meals, just experimenting with stuff,” Greg said.

“That’s the main joy I get from cooking, just coming up with something new that everybody likes.”

The “cooking profile” of Dupas also includes one of his recipes and a short bio which includes his “worst kitchen disaster”.

I was determined to learn how to flip omelets in the pan without any utensils. After ruining one, I decided to keep trying and ended up going through the two dozen eggs my mom had stocked the refrigerator with, while stuffing all the eggshells down the garbage disposal. The garbage disposal was almost ruined, and there were no eggs left for the rest of the week

Ahhh. Kinda like how Joe Maddon was determined to figure out how to use Shawn Camp and he kept sending him out to the mound in crucial situations. In the end, the Rays’ allowed most of their inherited runners to score and the season was ruined.

Dupas will fit right in.

A Meta-Analysis Of Top Rays Prospects [Rays Index]
Relief pitcher is good in the kitchen, too [The Press-Enterprise]

[THE HANGOVER] The Rays Drop $2.9 Million On Seventh Inning Pitcher

Tampa Bay Rays (29 days until pitchers and catchers report)

The Rays came to an agreement with Dan Wheeler on a one year contract for $2.875 million, avoiding arbitration. The salary will give Wheeler the 5th highest salary on the Rays in 2008, behind only Carl Crawford ($5.25 million), Troy Percival ($4 million) and both Scott Kazmir and Carlos Pena whose salaries have yet to be settled, but will certainly be greater than $2.875 million. In 2007, only four players on the opening day roster had salaries greater than $1 million, including Crawford ($4 million), Casey Fossum ($2.2 million), Ty Wigginton ($1.3 million) and Jae Seo ($1.2 million)*.

Wheeler’s deal leaves the Rays with three arbitration-eligible players (Carlos Pena, Scott Kazmir and Jonny Gomes). The remaining arbitration-eligible cases must be resolved by Friday or the player’s 2008 salaries will be settled by an arbitrator.

With three salaries yet to be determined, the Tampa Bay Rays opening day payroll (40-man roster) now projects to be just under $41 million.

*Both Pena and Reyes had base salaries less than $1 million but earned incentives during the season that pushed their salary above $1 million.

RHP Dan Wheeler and Rays agree to 1-year contract. [Yahoo! Sports]

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Rays of Light breaks down six things that must happen for the Rays to post their first winning season in 2008. The biggest point is the first and one that we believe too many people are ignoring when they speak of the Rays new and improved bullpen. That is: Troy Percival and Al Reyes are both old and have a history of injuries. To expect a full season out of both is expecting a lot. Maybe too much. [Rays of Light]

There’s no doubt that Al Reyes and Troy Percival can throw, but there’s also no doubt that at ages 37 and 38 respectively and each with a history of injury, they are much closer to their last pitch than their first.

• Baseball Prospectus lists Dioner Navarro as one of their 2008 “Breakout Candidates”. [Baseball Prospectus]

Navarro has been a completely different player since being traded to the Devil Rays in 2006. At the time of the deal, Navarro had a career OBP of .360. With Tampa Bay, his OBP is .292. That kind of drop-off at 22 and 23 is alarming, and deserves investigation. When you look deeper, you see that Navarro’s decline has been concentrated in his strikeout rate, up about 15 percent, with a concomitant drop in his walk rate… Navarro was one of the worst players in baseball in the first half of 2007, batting .177/.238/.254, with a 36/13 K/BB in 229 plate appearances. To the Rays’ credit, they didn’t bury him, allowing him to remain the regular catcher throughout the season. They were rewarded with a significant improvement in the second half: .285/.340/.475, with a better K/BB (31/17 in 209 PA) and the best power of his career…As a switch-hitting catcher with good defensive skills and the ability to post a .360 OBP, however, he’s a tremendous asset. Navarro, still just 24 years old, is in line to be an above-average player, a five-win guy, for the next three seasons.

• Inside Vandy is running a 32-athlete “tournament” to find Vanderbilt’s biggest star. Why do we care here at RI? Because not only is there a “David Price Bracket”, but Pedro Alvarez is the #1 seed in the David Price Bracket. Alvarez is a power-hitting third baseman that may very well be the Rays selection as the top pick in the draft this June. [Inside Vandy]

[THE HANGOVER] Carlos Pena Tells Us Nothing…Some Seem To Think It Is Newsworthy

Tampa Bay Rays (30 days until pitchers and catchers report)

Just the links today.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• We have updated our Meta-Analysis of Top Prospects to now include the “Cursory Top Prospect Post” from Rays of Light. Their post is worth a read if just to read the reasoning for making the list at the beginning of the post. They have summed up our feelings about these lists perfectly and is exactly why we did not make a list of our own and instead created the Meta-Analysis. [Rays of Light]
• The Heater is reporting that Carlos Pena is still awaiting word on the progress of negotiations for a new deal. If a deal is not reached by Friday the Rays will cease negotiating and will let an arbitrator decide Pena’s 2008 salary. While we expect a 1-year deal to be reached with Scott Kazmir prior to Friday’s deadline, we would be surprised if the Rays can reach a deal with Pena, who is represented by Scott Boras. The team also continues to negotiate with Dan Wheeler and Jonny Gomes [TampaBay.com]
• St. Pete officials submitted a request for proposals to the St. Pete City Council. The request lays out what the officials envision for the renovation of Tropicana Field and lays out exactly what they are seeking in developers that would like to head the renovation. [TampaBay.com]
• Bucs Dugout has a post comparing the current Pirate’s situation to the 2006 Tampa Bay Devil Rays. The post is an excellent review of the moves that Andrew Friedman and Co. have made since taking control of the team and how the Rays went from a laughing stock to being on the verge of greatness mediocrity. [Bucs Dugout]
• Joe Henderson tries to convince his readers that the Rays are on the cusp of being a competitive team. [TBO]

Best-case scenario: If things break right, the Rays could challenge Toronto for third place in the American League East. That won’t trigger many champagne showers, but after what we’ve seen here for years, it’ll do for now.

The defense up the middle should be vastly improved. Moving Akinori Iwamura to second base fills one of those spots with a potential gold glove. Shortstop Jason Bartlett, acquired in the Delmon Young trade, will get to balls that would have scooted well past Brendan Harris last season.

• The Rays have hired a firm to study the impact the proposed Rays stadium will have on local parking. [DevilRays.com]

Over the next several months, RK&K will work with the City of St. Petersburg, its residents and the Rays to analyze the relationship between existing parking locations and ballpark entry and exit routes, forecast downtown traffic volumes during event conditions, and engage the community to determine specific areas of concern. RK&K will recommend methods to ensure that adequate parking will be available for both the ballpark and its downtown environs. RR&K will also help create an effective traffic management plan to minimize congestion and provide ease of entry and exit to the ballpark.

[RI CONFIDENCE GRAPH] Introducing The Rays Index Confidence Graph

The RI Confidence Graph will appear every Monday and is a look at how much confidence we have in the Tampa Bay Rays at this moment. The graph is designed to give us a look at how our emotional bias as Rays fans fluctuates through time. The “confidence” in the team is an inexact measure of how we feel about the team’s current strength as well as how much confidence we have in the Tampa Bay Rays in the near-future. You can think of a “confidence” rating of 10 as an indication that we believe the team is “playoff-caliber”. A rating of 0 is a strong indication that we need to start reevaluating the process that led to us becoming Rays fans…

[THE HANGOVER] The Tampa Bay Rays Are Promising As Much As $300 Million For Local Schools With New Stadium

Tampa Bay Rays (31 days until pitchers and catchers report)
The Tampa Bay Rays claim that as much as $800 million in new local taxes will be generated for St. Petersburg over the next 35 years due to the redevelopment of the Tropicana Field site. As part of the proposal for a new stadium along the St. Pete waterfront and the redevelopment of the land on which Tropicana Field sits, the Rays want 52% of those new taxes for building the new stadium. The other 48% would be distributed among local St. Pete agencies, with the biggest chunk (37%) going to the Pinellas and state school system. The remaining 11% would be split among other local entities.

The Tampa Bay Rays say the successful redevelopment of Tropicana Field and its parking lots could generate $5-million a year in new property tax revenues for state and Pinellas schools. If the redevelopment includes retail, millions of dollars more could flow into the city and county coffers each year through sales tax payments.

That money, which would not help build a new Rays stadium for the Rays, could be used to build new schools or new parks or pay teachers or police officers more, the Rays say.

If the $800 million turns out to be $400 million, the Rays would still get their stadium and the Pinellas and state school systems would get nothing. Therefore, the Rays hopes for a new stadium may be dependent on proving that the redevelopment of Tropicana Field can indeed generate the $800 million they are projecting.

Rays say schools gain in redevelopment [TampaBay.com]

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Stacy Long revealed his list of the Top 30 Tampa Bay Rays prospects. We have updated our Meta-Analysis of Rays Prospects to include Long’s list. Long’s list is of special value as he covers the AA Montgomery Biscuits and has seen most of these players first-hand. We are also now including a link to the meta-analysis in the side-panel. [Stacy Long’s Riverwalk Talk]
• Depending on the final numbers for the Rays final four remaining arbitration-eligible players, the Rays will most likely have an opening day payroll greater than $40 million. Based on our own projections, we place the final number just north of $41 million. This will be greater than the Rays promise of a 20% increase over their 2007 opening day payroll. Marc Topkin also includes his projected 25-man payroll and opening day lineup. The projection is very similar to our own, including Juan Salas not being on the roser. The only exception is giving the final roster spot to Justin Ruggiano and having Joel Guzman as the opening day third baseman in place of Evan Longoria. This is an idea that we are starting to warm up to. [TampaBay.com]
• Joe Maddon wants to emphasize fundamentals in Spring Training. [TBO]

“I’m going to apply a lot of pressure to the coaches and myself this spring training to make sure we get these fundamentals down appropriately,” Maddon said. “We’ve talked about them for two years; I believe this group is ready to put them into play. I believe this group is ready to take what we’re talking about and execute them. I believe this group will accept constructive criticism well and be accountable for their actions.

• Voros McCracken thinks the Rays still have a lot of work to do before they are ready to start competing. One of his biggest cautionary notes is that “Young pitchers (the strength of the Devil Rays system) will break your heart in a thousand different ways”. Everybody knows this, but the strength of the system is not just young pitching. It is the depth of young pitching. The Rays don’t need all their young pitching prospects to succeed. Just some of them. [Voros McCracken]
• The Rays have made official their plans to play a three-games series against the Blue Jays at Disney’s Wide World of Sports complex. The move is contingent on the approval of the St. Pete city counsel. [Bradenton Herald]
• John Sickels reviews his Top 50 pitching prospects from 2007 and how they performed last season. Matt Garza was Sickels’ #2 pitching prospect with four other Rays that were on the list. [Minor League Ball]
• He says there have been no problems, but it seems a bit worrisome that we are only a month from Spring Training and Rocco Baldelli is only running three days a week. [Rotoworld]
• We are not sure why we are posting a link to this because it is really not news-worthy, but it does make as chuckle a little bit. Turns out, two downtown St. Pete condo associations are opposed to the proposed stadium. Why? Because the new stadium will block their view of the water. Don’t get us wrong, we understand that will have an effect on the property value, but with the numbers that are being tossed around (ie. $800 million in new tax revenue) there is ZERO chance that the fate of the new stadium will rest on whether a few condo-owners can see Tampa Bay. [Tampa Bay Parent]

[FRIDAY HAPPY HOUR] Joe Maddon Considers Mediocrity A ‘Reasonable Goal’

We love Joe Maddon. We really do (Actually, not all of us love Papa Joe. DRG hates Maddon and and threatens to punch me in the face every time I write something that even remotely supports him). Even though we love Papa Joe, we admit that we can be hard on him from time to time and THIS is the number one reason…

At least 81 (wins), from what manager Joe Maddon envisions. “I think it’s a reasonable goal,” Maddon said.

Actually Joe. It is not a “reasonable goal”. It is not a reasonable goal when you have three stud starting pitchers, a solid 8th and 9th inning duo and at least five players in the everyday lineup with all-star potential.

You wanna know what a “reasonable goal” is? THE F#@%ING PLAYOFFS! That is a reasonable goal. Will it happen? Maybe not. But that should be your god damned “reasonable goal”.

81-81 should be the bare minimum with this collection of talent. I don’t give a rats-ass how young they are. This team has talent. The core of the team are VETERANS. They may not all be old, but Kazmir, Shields, Crawford, Pena, Iwamura, Floyd, Navi, Reyes, Wheeler and Percy have all been through the fire. It is time to start performing or get the hell out of the way for somebody that will.

And that goes for you too Joe. I know you are still learning as a manager and you are not the sort to EVER put pressure on your players in public, but if you can’t win 81 games with this group, I will gladly drive you back to Anaheim myself.

2006? Sure why not. 2007? Got a little stale, but we understood. 2008? No. Stop. Just stop. Stop low-balling the players and the fans. Stop being afraid to bruise their fragile little egos, and tell us that the goal for 2008 is the playoffs. We won’t hold it against you or them if you don’t make it. But we will hold it against them and especially you if you don’t win 81 games.

This is not what we needed heading into the weekend. If anybody needs us, we will be the drunkards trying out how to hack firejoemaddon.com, and making a game plan for starting FirePapaJoe.com.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• I think I had a couple of afternoon links for you, but I am too frustrated. It’s gotta be 5 ‘o clock somewhere…

[THE HANGOVER] Five To Compete For Final Two Spots In Rotation

Tampa Bay Rays (34 days until pitchers and catchers report)

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• With three spots in the rotation spoken for (Scott Kazmir, James Shields, Matt Garza), Joe Maddon stated that five pitchers will compete for the final two spots including Edwin Jackson, Andy Sonnanstine, Jeff Niemann, Jason Hammel and JP Howell. Obviously Jackson, Sonnanstine and Hammel have the edge as the imcumbants and Howell has experience, but don’t rule out Jeff Niemann. He will be 25 and he has 239 innings under his belt as a minor leaguer. He and Jackson have the biggest upside and Jackson so far has been crap-tastic. If he was 22 the team may worry about feeding him to the lions. And he is far enough removed from his shoulder problems that arm strength should no longer be a factor. Now it is just a matter of whether or not the team thinks he can get the job done. If not, it won’t be long before we see him in the bullpen. [TampaBay.com]
• The Tampa Bay Rays have until January 18 to work out contracts with Scott Kazmir, Carlos Pena, Jonny Gomes and Dan Wheeler. All four players are arbitration eligible and next Friday is the deadline for both sides to submit offers for the arbitration hearing. As an organization, the Rays have a policy of “File-and-go”, meaning they will negotiate with a player once the figures have been submitted to the arbitrator. That policy seems sound when dealing with a player like Josh Paul last season or Dan Wheeler this season, but it is a big gamble when dealing with young super-duper-stars like Kazmir and Pena. The Rays risk alienating their young stars as teams are forced to present an argument to the arbitrator based on all the reasons why that player is not worth the money he is asking for. That being said, Andrew Friedman stated on Thusday that he would be surprised if the team did not reach deals with all four players. [The Ledger]

“We would prefer to avoid a hearing,” Friedman said. “It’s in place to resolve differences, and it’s there in the event we can’t. But we hope to be able to avoid it and reach a resolution. If we get to Friday and file numbers, we’re going to a hearing. It’s our policy.”

• The Rays are expected to make a decision on whether or not Evan Longoria will be the opening day starter prior to Spring Training, which gives the team about one month to come to a conclusion. Interestingly, Joe Maddon who has repeatedly stated in the past that he makes few roster decisions based on Spring Training performance and that he prefers to judge a player based on what he did the previous season, does not approve of the team’s choice to make a decision prior to Spring Training. [TBO]

“I’m into seeing it play out,” Maddon said. “I’ve often said it and I’ll say it again: I’m really not a big proponent of evaluating players during spring training, but when you have so many close calls, sometimes you have to rely upon that.”

• In addition to Evan Longoria, other players not on the 40-man roster that will be invited to Spring Training include Reid Brignac, Wade Davis, Jake McGee and Chris Mason. I predict blue hair for Mason. [TBO]
• On Wednesday night, over 300 people gathered at Tropicana Field to hold a public discussion about the Tampa Bay Rays proposal to build a new stadium along the St. Pete waterfront and redevelop the land that is currently home to the Trop. Two people protested outside the stadium. [TampaBay.com]
• The Rays announced a number of changes to their coaching, training and scouting staffs. [DevilRays.com]
• 365 Days of Dough, Rays, and Me breaks down one set of statistical projections for the Rays. [365 Days of Dough, Rays and Me]
• Spring Training tickets went on sale this morning. [Tampa Bay 10]

[THE HANGOVER] A Meta-Analysis Of Top Tampa Bay Rays Prospects

Tampa Bay Rays (35 days until pitchers and catchers report)
[Update 1/15/08: We have added the Top 13 prospect list from Rays of Light.]

[Update 1/14/08: We have added Stacy Long’s list of Top 30 prospects to the Meta-Analysis. Long’s list is clearly needed in this meta-analysis as he has seen most of these players play on a first-hand basis while covering the Montgomery Biscuits.]

[Ed. Note: We have updated the list to include the rankings posted by the highly respected John Sickels at Minor League Ball. His list was just posted this morning. There was little change in the overall rankings]

Yesterday Baseball America unveiled their list of Top 10 Prospects for the Tampa Bay Rays. No big surprises. You can find the full write-up HERE along with their list of the Top Tools in the organization.

BA is the 5th website (that we are aware of) that has released a rankings list for Rays prospects. We decided to do a meta-analysis and compare the results from several websites. In the science community, a meta-analysis is what we do when we don’t want to do any work ourselves and instead want to take the work of a bunch of other people, tease the data a little, draw some conclusions that nobody had noticed before, and then pawn it off as our own.

A few notes on the Meta-Analysis..

1. We included rankings from Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Minor League Ball, DRays Bay, Rays Digest, Riverwalk Talk, and Rays Anatomy.
2. When calculating the averages, we gave Baseball America a weight of 2. This is simply because, analyzing minor leaguers is what they do for a living. They are the experts and in many cases they have actually seen these prospects play and have been following them for several years. Not to mention their offices are in Durham.
3. If a player was excluded from a list, we gave that player a ranking of 2 spots lower than the lowest ranked player in the list for the purpose of calculating the final average.
4. The final list includes the 14 players that appeared in the Top 10 of at least one list.
5. We included our own Trade Value Index, which can be found in the side-panel. Our list differs from the others in that we incorporate more to our rankings than just how good of a major leaguer the player will be. Our rankings are based on “value” to the organization. For example, it is our thought that Wade Davis has the better chance of being a top major league starting pitcher, but we give Jake McGee a higher “value” because he is left-handed and a power lefty with a plus-breaking ball is a very rare commodity.
6. Notes on the individual rankings follow the Meta-Analysis.

• The top 5 are clear-cut with only subtle disagreements on the exact order. The only outliers are Desmond Jennings whom BP slots at #4 and our own TVI list which includes Jeff Niemann at #5 a spot ahead of Reid Brignac. The thinking is that Niemann is a pitcher, he is closer to the big leagues and while Brignac is still an elite prospect, he did raise at least a few doubts in 2007. If Niemann fails to make the opening day roster, he will begin to fall down the TVI…very fast.
• When it comes to strict major league projections, #8-15 are interchangeable in our eyes and while the names are fairly consistent across the lists, the actual order varies greatly.
• In our eyes, the top 7 are can’t-miss prospects. Not necessarily all-stars, but all seven should be contributing major leaguers. We would also add Eduardo Morlan to that list.
• We are not sold on Desmond Jennings. But, with the trade of Delmon Young and the injury struggles of Rocco Baldelli, Jennings and Fernando Perez will ultimately compete to be the third outfielder in 2009 or 2010.
• We are also not yet ready to anoint Jeremy Hellickson as a legit major league prospect. For a right-hander he is not very big and he is not over-powering, which translates very well at Low-A Columbus. He will get his first big test in 2008 at the hitter-friendly Vero Beach. Until he shows us he can compete at the AA-level, we will remain skeptical. We rank Chris Mason higher. Mason was a college pitcher, so he is more polished and while he is also a not very big, not very overpowering right hander, he has proven it at the AA-level. Still we are skeptical that he will be a very good major leaguer.
• BP and our own TVI give Eduardo Morlan his highest ranking of #7. Just look at the free agent market for relief pitchers this off-season and you will see that teams are starting to dish out big bucks for all relief pitchers, not just closers. For all the pitching depth spoken of in the Rays system, very little of it is relief pitchers. While starting pitchers that miss the cut will get a shot at the ‘pen, it is never guaranteed to be a successful transition. That gives Morlan a decided edge over others for an organization that is desperate for young talented relief pitchers.

RAYS PROSPECTS WEBTOPIA…

• Rays Digest breaks down the Tampa Bay Rays farm system. [Rays Digest]
• Future Considerations breaks down BA’s prospect list. FC is in the midst of revealing their Top 30 prospects but have yet to unveil their Top 10 so we could not include their rankings in our meta-analysis. We s
  hould note that earlier this week FC took their own stab at predicting the “Best Tools” categories and we questioned whether Evan Longoria would be named both “Best Power Hitter” and “Best Hitter for Average”. We thought it might be John Jaso. FC nailed it, as Longoria was named in both categories. *Tip o’ the cap* [Future Considerations]

Top 10 Prospects: Tampa Bay Rays [Baseball America]
Baseball America Names Rays Top 10, I Was Nearly Right… [Rays Anatomy]
Rays Prospect Preview [Rays Digest]
Rays Top 11 Prospects [Baseball Prospectus]
Baseball America’s Top Ten Rays Prospects [DRays Bay]
Top Rays Prospects [Stacy Long’s Riverwalk Talk]

[2008 ROSTER] 2008 25-Man Roster And Starting Lineup Projections

The 2008 25-man roster prediction is based only on players currently within the organization and will be updated when trades are consummated and free agents are signed.

Not a lot has happened in recent weeks concerning the Tampa Bay Rays 2008 25-man roster and regular lineup. The only significant addition was Mike DiFelice who, if the season started today, would most likely be the back-up catcher. The team would still like to make a few more minor additions, including a left-handed reliever, a left-handed hitting utility infielder, and possibly an upgrade over DiFelice.

If the season started today, this is how we feel the 25-man roster and most-days lineup would shake-out. Notes on specific positions can be found below…

A FEW NOTES ON THE 40-MAN ROSTER…

• Some seem to think the Rays are leaning towards starting Evan Longoria in AAA. We have already made our feelings known on this matter. Our guess is that the team is trying to deflect some off-season pressure and will still give The Dirtbag the nod on opening day.
• We don’t see any threats to Ben Zobrist for super-utility guy. As it stands he is the only available left handed bat off the bench (he is a switch-hitter).
• Not sure team is sold on Joel Guzman on the bench. Team may prefer a cheap veteran free agent with good positional flexibility. Left-handed is a bonus. But Guzman has an edge as he can play both corner positions and the outfield.
• Mike DiFelice is only a non-roster invitee at this point, but it is no secret the team wants a veteran signal-caller to back-up Dioner Navarro, and there are no other options in -house.
• With talk of trading Edwin Jackson (not likely) and rumors of a move to the bullpen (possible) it may be that Andy Sonnanstine has a firmer grasp on his spot in the rotation. The final spot may come down to a battle between Jackson and Jason Hammel. Both are out options, so the loser moves to the bullpen to be a long-reliever.
• Still waiting for the Rays to sign a lefty reliever. Until then, Kurt Birkins is the guy, although a strong spring by Jeff Ridgway would make the Rays think twice.
• Final two spot in the bullpen will be a battle between Gary Glover, Scott Dohmann and Juan Salas. Salas is the only one with an option left. Glover was actually pretty decent in 2007 and Dohmann was strong down the stretch. Maddon always speaks highly of Glover and Dohmann and rarely mentions Salas. Of course, Maddon always spoke highly of Jae Seo also. Our best guess is that Glover is pretty close to being a lock, with the final spot coming down to Dohmann and Salas. Flip a coin at this point.