[RI CONFIDENCE GRAPH] The Rays Confidence Graph Survey

Below you will see two polls that ask about your confidence in the Tampa Bay Rays. Please take a moment to answer each question. We will present these same polls every Monday and will update the results in graphical form on Wednesday, which will be displayed permanently in the sidebar. The goal of the Confidence Graph is to get a feeling of how Rays fans feel about the team and the franchise and track how that level of confidence changes through time.

Last week the Rays Confidence Graph saw little change. Raysiverse events of the past week that could impact confidence levels…

• Both Scott Kazmir and BJ Upton expressed their confidence in the 2008 Rays. Kid K even went so far as to utter the P-word…Playoffs, while Upton said “anything is possible”. There appears to be a newfound level of optimism that is being spurred by the Rays off-season moves and a new level of accountability being doled out by Joe Maddon.
  
• Evan Longoria will be given a chance to earn a spot as the Rays starting third baseman in Spring Training.
• Andy Sonnanstine looks like a lock for the 4th spot in the rotation. But the final spot is up for grabs.
• Gary Glover is almost a lock to be on the opening day roster.
  
• Joe Maddon says that Shawn Riggans is the favorite to be the backup catcher.
• The team is going to take it “very slowly” with Rocco Baldelli. In years past this might be a concern, but is anybody expecting anything from Rocco in 2008? Won’t any production from Baldelli be gravy for the 2008 Rays?
• Most jobs on the opening day roster are already spoken for.
• One simulation has the Rays winning 89 games.

Opinion Polls & Market Research

Opinion Polls & Market Research

[THE HANGOVER] Josh Paul Is Still Favorite To Be Backup Catcher

Tampa Bay Rays (42 days until Opening Day)

Joe Maddon stated that Shawn Riggans is the favorite to be the backup catcher on opening day. Papa Joe then commented on what his criteria is for a backup catcher.

“The backup guy should be pretty effective defensively,” Maddon said. “It’s not an easy position. The guys that do it well make it look easy, but it’s not easy. Part of their job really is to help the starting catcher. … It’s like a good backup quarterback in football.”

This only surprises us because Maddon actually commented on the situation, but it does not surprise us that he named Riggans even though we project Josh Paul to win the job. Keep in mind that Riggans is the only candidate that is actually on the 40-man roster at this point. Paul and Mike DiFelice are in essence getting “tryouts”. They are on minor league deals and have done nothing yet to earn a major league contract. If the team had absolute confidence in one or the other, they would not be on minor league deals.

The team has made it clear that they prefer a veteran backup catcher to help further the development of starter Dioner Navarro. Just don’t expect Papa Joe to admit that publicly because he would have to say that he prefers a player that is not on the team over a player that is on the team.

At the end of the day, we still feel Josh Paul will be the Rays backup catcher and it is Riggans that needs to “win” the job. Paul has the edge in experience, better defensive abilities and a strong familiarity with the pitching staff and Navarro. Riggans would have to outperform Paul defensively in Spring Training to make the roster and we are not convinced he can.

Notes: Iwamura ready for second base [Tampa Bay Rays]

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Marc Topkin takes a look at the Rays trio of young talented starting pitchers. Jim Hickey feels that 26 teams in the league would prefer to have Scott Kazmir, James Shields and Matt Garza as their top 3 pitchers. [St. Pete Times]

As Rays officials went back over the last several decades, they came up with only a few teams that had three starters who were so young with the chance to be so good. There were the A’s of the early 2000s with Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito. The Marlins of the same era with Josh Beckett, Brad Penny and Dontrelle Willis. The Braves of the early 1990s with Steve Avery, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz. And not too many others…”It’s certainly a rare commodity,” senior vice president Gerry Hunsicker said, “to have three young pitchers with the talent level that we’re going to run out there.”

• A quick video interview with David Price as well as a look at him throwing off a mound. (Link will open a video player) [Tampa Bays 10]
• Rays of Light begins a series in which they will spotlight certain Rays. First up is Akinori Iwamura. [Rays of Light]
• Beyond the Boxscore makes an argument for Fred McGriff to be inducted into the Hall of Fame. We think the Crime dog was a very good and very consistent player, but he was what Mike Francessa would call a “compiler”. His numbers look good because he played for a long time, not because he was a great player. We witnessed most of McGriff’s career and never once did we watch McGriff and think “There goes one of the greatest baseball player’s ever”. Sorry. Great guy, very good player, but when the voting comes, we would be surprised if he cracks 25%. [Beyond the Boxscore]
• We were in Austin this weekend. Apparently so was Matt Silverman. He was running in the Austin half-marathon. We were sitting in the front yard drinking Mimosas watching the half-marathoners and marathoners run by. [Rays Report]
• Baseball Prospectus projects the Rays to finish 82-80. The biggest change will be in the pitching. They project that the Rays will increase their scoring from 782 to 788 runs in 2008 and will decrease their runs allowed from 944 to 776. [Baseball Prospectus]
• Sean Deveney of The Sporting News feels the Rays and the Nationals have a special kinship because they have both sucked recently. The similarities are a stretch and include small fanbase (usually goes hand-in-hand with sucking), long odds to win the 2008 World Series (again, sucking), good young third basemen (1 spot out of 25 is similar), and both teams want to improve their image (as do most sucky teams). [The Sporting News]

[THE HANGOVER] Camp Opens For Rays With Few Jobs On The Line

Tampa Bay Rays (45 days until Opening Day)
Lots ‘o Links today, so let’s get to ’em…

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• The Tampa Tribune does not see many positions open for the Rays heading into Spring Training. By their count, there are two spots in the rotation, two in the bullpen, one at catcher and 1-2 at third base/utility infielder. We still find it perplexing that some see Shawn Riggans “as the presumptive favorite” to win the backup catchers job. Joe Maddon spoke several times this off-season about having a veteran presence at that position to assist in the maturation of Dioner Navarro, and we don’t think Riggans’ seven years in the minor leagues is what they meant by “experienced”. [Tampa Tribune]
• Jayson Stark says the “Rise of the Rays” is one of the top ten stories of Spring Training. He also refers to the Rays as one of the three most-improved teams in the AL. [ESPN]

Is The Team Formerly Known as the Devil Rays ready to slap around the Yankees or Red Sox (or even the underrated Blue Jays)? Nah. Not yet. But the Rays have added Matt Garza to the rotation and depth to the bullpen. Third base stud Evan Longoria might be the most buzzed-about phenom in baseball. And three of the best pitching prospects on earth (David Price, Jake McGee, Wade Davis) are just over the horizon. Here’s how promising this team is: One AL executive actually predicts the Rays won’t even pick in the first 10 picks of the draft. Pass the smelling salts!

• The Bradenton Herald calls the 2008 Rays the “most talented roster in its history” and notes what a difference a year makes. [Bradenton Herald]

At this time last February, Joe Maddon was looking for a first baseman. And a second baseman. And a shortstop.

“And a bullpen,” Maddon said. “I had no idea who would be in the bullpen.”

The Tampa Bay Rays manager openly dreamed of the day when the team would begin camp with just a few needs. That’s a sign of progress, Maddon would say. A sign a developing team is ready to make the leap toward one that is ready to compete.

• The Tampa Bay Rays charitable foundation has formed three new grant programs to assist Tampa Bay area children. As a team policy, all players that sign multi-year contracts donate a portion of their contracts to the Rays Baseball Foundation. This season, over $1 million will be contributed by the players. [Bradenton Herald]
• This is really old news that is just now becoming official: The Rays will play the Blue Jays at Disney’s Wide World of Sports complex for three games, April 22-24. [Rays Report]
• In the latest in the series “A Tale of Two Eric’s” Rays Anatomy takes on BJ Upton, and what we can expect from the young center fielder in 2008. [Rays Anatomy]
• Rays Digest is not happy with the amount of coverage given to the Rays in the St. Pete Times on the first day of Spring Training. [Rays Digest]
• ArmchairGM names the best starting pitcher on each team and calls Scott Kazmir “the clear #1”. They even take a small shot at the Mets. See, we are not the only ones that gain pleasure at the expense of the Mets. [ArmchairGM]
• AOL Fanhouse believes Troy Percival could be the key to the Rays success in 2008. [AOL Fanhouse]

[THE HANGOVER] Pitchers And Catchers Report: All Is Right In The World

Tampa Bay Rays (46 days until Opening Day)
Today is the first official day of Spring Training as pitchers and catchers are required to report. However, according to Marc Lancaster, this is a mere formality as players have been reporting to the Naimoli Complex, three days a week for weeks now.

Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, beginning last fall, Rays players have convened for workouts. According to Scott Kazmir, a dozen or so players have been present regularly throughout the winter. In recent weeks, that number has swelled considerably.

James Shields participated in his first full workout at the complex last Wednesday and was stunned by what he saw.

“I swear to God there were 40 guys,” said Shields. “It was amazing. I normally come back a week before spring and I see maybe 10, 12 guys. But it was a full squad out there. It was crazy.”

Of the 35 pitchers and catchers required to report today, 34 will be on time, as only Juan Salas, who is having visa problems will be late.

Lancaster speculates that the level of participation could be a sign of maturity and anticipation.

The level of participation could be interpreted as a sign of maturity among a still-young group, but anticipation of the upcoming season has been a driving force as well. Especially for those who have suffered through one losing campaign after another, there is a sense that this could be the breakthrough season everyone has awaited.

Kinda makes us want to grab a mitt and some spikes and see if James Shields wants to warm up.

Rays Ready For Reporting Day [Tampa Tribune]

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Evan Longoria welcomes the challenge of winning the third base job in Spring Training. [The Heater]

“That’s basically what I came into spring hoping would happen,” Longoria said. “If they would have made the decision early, obviously if I was in the big leagues that would be good, but I feel like now it just puts a little more added pressure on me, which I like. It’s going to make me work harder.”

• Anaheim Angels All the Way ran a full season simulation using the CHONE projections. The Rays finished the “regular season” at 89-73, just 3 games behind the Yankees and the Red Sox in the AL East. Don’t put too much weight on this projection as it was only run once. Every March Replacement Level Yankees runs a series of simulations. One of the projections used is CHONE. The difference is they will run the projections 1,000 times. Last year, after 1,000 projections the Rays averaged 71.3 wins per simulation. However, at least once the Rays won 93 games. They won the division two times and were the AL Wild Card winner three times. When running simulations like these, anomalies happen. Let’s wait until RLY gets a chance to run the 1,000 simulations and then we will have a better idea what to expect from the 2008 Rays. [Angels All the Way via DRays Bay]
• RaysBB has finished their round-table rundown of the Rays top prospects. 13 people participated and we were the only one that did not have Evan Longoria in the top spot. To us it is really 1a and 1b and since we have little experience actually seeing any of these guys play we consider “value to the organization” as the top criteria and to us winning is always about pitching and the pitcher gets the slight edge. [RaysBB]
• Bill Chastain wraps up his “Around the Horn” series by taking a look at the Rays DHs and Bench. [RaysBaseball.com]
• Refrigerator Logic lists the reasons fans should pay attention to the Rays in 2008. [Refrigerator Logic]
• Outs Per Swing questions why Rob Neyer leaves Scott Kazmir off his list of top young pitchers even though Kid K meets the criteria set forth by Neyer. [Outs Per Swing]
• Baseball Analysts concludes their break-down of the best young players by age. The latest lists look at 20 and 21 year old. Desmond Jennings(#7) and Jake McGee (#9) both make the list of top 21-year olds. [Baseball Analysts]

[RI CONFIDENCE GRAPH] The Rays Index Confidence Graph: 7 Weeks Until Opening Day

The Rays Confidence Graph will appear every Wednesday and is a look at how much confidence Rays fans have in the Tampa Bay Rays. The graph is designed to give us a look at how our emotional bias as Rays fans fluctuates through time. The “confidence” in the team is an inexact measure of how we feel about the team’s current strength as well as how much confidence we have in the franchise for the next 3-4 years. You can think of a “confidence” rating of 10 as an indication that we believe the team is “playoff-caliber”. Notes on this weeks agida-level can be found after the graph..

Notes on the RI Confidence Graph…

• We are in full status quo mode as the Spring Training roster is set
• Fans do not seem fazed by the new contract signed by Johan Santana and how that may affect the Rays ability to sign Scott Kazmir to a longterm contract.

[THE HANGOVER] All Evan Longoria Needs Is A Chance, And Now He’s Got It

Tampa Bay Rays (1 day until pitchers and catchers report)

It is what he wanted.

It is what we wanted.

It is not necessarily what the front office wanted.

But now it looks like Evan Longoria will get the opportunity to prove in Spring Training that he belongs in the majors.

And a chance is all the Dirtbag needs. It won’t take much to convince Joe Maddon. And we have a feeling that if Papa Joe can be convinced, it won’t take much to convince Andrew Friedman.

Longoria will not have to hit .400 in Spring Training and he will not have to hit 10 home runs. In fact, we have a feeling that as long as he does not fall flat on his face, he will be named the Rays opening day starter at third base. As much as Papa Joe likes to crunch numbers on his computer, he still loves himself a good ole fashioned baseball player. Evan Longoria is a baseball player. And Maddon will envision that rubbing off on the other players

Maddon is destined to fall in love with the 22 year old. He will see enough in his swing and his glove to know that he is not going to be over-matched at the major league level.

Longoria may struggle at first. But he is too good a hitter to fail. And Papa Joe will see that.

Longoria will get chance to earn spot [Rays Report]

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• ESPN.com takes a closer look at the “revitalized” Carl Crawford. C.C. speaks about having more energy after learning that he was allergic to dairy and wheat products and the subsequent change in his diet. He has also upped his workout regimen and has dropped his body fat from 12% to 8% since December. He also doesn’t hold back in his portrayal of just how miserable 2007 was for the Rays. [ESPN]

“It’s just going to be about playing baseball again, that’s what I’m really excited about this season,” Crawford said at his offseason home. “With all the B.S. that was going on last year, I think we lost focus on the task at hand.” Crawford refers to the ongoing soap opera that featured Elijah Dukes and Delmon Young. Both of the enormously talented players couldn’t stay out of trouble; Dukes with his off-field issues, and Young with his me-first attitude that resulted in him at first walking out on manager Joe Maddon on the second-to-last day of the 2007 regular season. Crawford calls last season a year “he never wants to remember,” and the distractions, at times, were almost unbearable…”That move, for Garza, spoke volumes,” Crawford said. “For the first time I felt like this organization was serious about winning. That’s the reason why I think everybody is excited because everybody sees that.”

• Joe Maddon confirmed something that we had expected, that is five of the seven bullpen spots are already spoken for, all but guaranteeing that Gary Glover will be on the opening day roster. That leaves one spot that will go to a “loser” in the battle for the starting rotation and the final spot will be between Juan Salas, Scott Dohmann and Grant Balfour. [The Heater]
• Shawn Riggans enters Spring Training healthy and understands this may be his last shot at winning a job with the Rays now that John Jaso has been added to the 40-man roster. Marc Topkin refers to Riggans as the “apparent leading candidate for the backup catcher’s job.” This might be a stretch after the recent additions of one veteran catcher in Mike DiFelice and the return of Josh Paul who is familiar with the Rays pitching staff. It is our feeling that if the season started today Paul’s experience and familiarity with the pitching staff will be a better partner to the young Dioner Navarro. [St. Pete Times]
• Marc Topkin reviews all the changes the Rays have made this off-season. [St. Pete Times]
• The Columbus Catfish have been sold and plan to relocate to Bolling Green, Kentucky for the 2009 season. [Ledger-Enquirer]
• Baseball Analysts continues their breakdown of the best baseball players by age. In the age 23 group, BJ Upton comes in at #6, while both Evan Longoria and David Price come in at #5 and #12 respectively. [Baseball Analysts]
• The Ledger ranks the DHs. The Rays’ three-headed monster of Rocco Baldelli, Cliff Floyd and Jonny Gomes is ranked 7th. [The Ledger]
• My Baseball Bias previews the Rays’ Spring Training. [My Baseball Bias]
• Devil Rays Locker gives the Rays front office a B+ for this off-season’s moves. [Devil Rays Locker]

[POWER RANKINGS] The Tampa Bay Rays Power Rankings

Spring Training begins this week, so it is time to start taking a closer look at the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays. What better way to do that than a good ole fashioned Power Ranking. Everybody loves Power Rankings. These rankings are a combination of overall importance to the team and a general “who’s hot and who’s not”. The Tampa Bay Rays Power Rankings will appear every Tuesday.

[2008 ROSTER] 2008 40-Man Roster And Payroll Projections Redux

The 2008 40-man roster and payroll projection is based only players currently within the organization and will be updated when trades are consummated and free agents are signed.

Last week we took at the latest 25-man roster projection, and with pitchers and catchers set to report this week let’s update our 40-man roster and payroll projections.

Notes on the projections can be found after the roster…

A few notes on the 40-man roster and payroll projections…

• All of the Rays arbitration-eligible players have signed contracts and avoided arbitration.
• This roster and payroll projection is based on our 25-man roster projection in which Evan Longoria is in the minors, Josh Paul is the backup catcher and Scott Dohmann beats out Juan Salas for the final bullpen spot.
• Only five players on the 2007 opening day roster had a salary of at least $1 million (Carl Crawford, Casey Fossum, Akinori Iwamura, Jae Seo and Ty Wigginton). Only Fossum ($2.2 million) and Crawford ($4.0 million) made more than $2 million. This year, 12 players will make more than $1.0 million and nine of those will make more than $2.0 million.

[THE HANGOVER] Rays To Watch In Spring Training

Tampa Bay Rays (2 days until pitchers and catchers report)
The Tampa Tribune lists “Five Rays To Watch” in Spring Training. The list includes several obvious names, including Akinori Iwamura, Rocco Baldelli, Edwin Jackson, Dioner Navarro and Trever Miller.

We are not sure Trever Miller needs to be on this list. His role is set and he will be fine. However we would add three more players to the list of players to watch: Jeff Niemann, John Jaso and David Price.

Niemann’s bandwagon is starting to gain some steam. He is 25 and it may be now or never for the big right hander. Now comes word that he is in much better shape this Spring. If the front office was being honest, it is our belief that they would prefer Niemann to step-up and take the last spot in the rotation from Edwin Jackson.

Jaso, on the other hand, has zero chance of making the roster, but 2008 could be a referendum on Navarro’s future with the Rays. He needs to at least maintain the pace, offensively, that he set in the second half of 2007 and he needs to make great strides defensively. Jaso will spend all of 2008 in AAA, but you can be sure the team is going to be watching him closely to see if Navarro’s potential replacement is in-house.This year’s Spring Training could go a long ways to convincing the coaching staff and front office that Jaso deserves at least a platoon position in 2009.

Price made news when he stated that he wants to be in the majors by the beginning of July. Even prior to this statement many outlets speculated that Price could be ready for the majors by the second half of 2008. This seams awfully quick for an organization as patient as the Rays. It seems more likely that Price will spend 2007 at AA, with a possible late-season promotion to AAA. He would then begin the 2009 season at AAA with a June call-up being the most likely scenario. The only way we can see Price in the majors this season is if he is posting Tim Lincecum-type numbers (62.2 ip, 26h, 23bb, 104k, 1.01era) in the minors.

The Rays front office has been typically mum on the subject but they may tip their hand in Spring Training. If the Rays believe there is even a possibility of promoting Price to the bigs in 2008, he will see action in Spring Training games. If they plan on keeping him in the minors the entire season, he will be given a cursory 2 weeks with the parent club and then shipped over to minor league camp for the remainder of Spring Training without ever appearing in a Spring game. This was how Evan Longoria was handled last year.

Five Players To Watch [Tampa Tribune]

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• If you haven’t had a chance to vote in our “Rays Confidence Graph” survey. Please do so now. We will update the results tomorrow. [Rays Index]
• Marc Lancaster asks five questions that the Rays will need to answer in Spring Training. [Tampa Tribune]
• During our “12 Days of Raysmas”, we wished for a no-hitter from Scott Kazmir. Well, The Bill James Handbook lists Kid K as the most likely pitcher in baseball today to throw a no-no, with a 24% chance. And you guys thought we were being too optimistic in the Raysmas posts. Tisk, tisk. [Joe Posnanski]
• Rays Anatomy debates Matt Garza vs. Jon Lester. This is a rare case where we actually know more about the other team’s player than we do about our own. [Rays Anatomy]
• Project Prospect lists Reid Brignac as the top shortstop prospect. [Project Prospect]

The year 2006, however, was much kinder to Brignac, as the 6-foot-3, 180-pounder tabbed a stellar .321/.376/.539 line between High-A and Double-A. While the 2006 campaign may have put him on the map, you shouldn’t be navigating away from Brignac because of his 2007 showing. The St. Amant, La. native’s line drive rate from ’06 stayed true to form in ’07, while his BABIP tanked from .395 to .288. Though he was in the hitter-friendly California League in ’06, there’s still reason to believe that Brignac was a bit unlucky last season. He still holds the skills and power potential to become an above-average shortstop at the Major League level

• Kevin Gengler is up to #14 Glenn Gibson and #13 John Jaso in his prospect countdown. [DRays Bay]
• Baseball Analysts list the top 24 year olds in baseball. Scott Kazmir is ranked #5. [Baseball Analysts]
• As we get closer to the baseball season, the new Rays blogs are starting to roll out fast and furious. The latest is Outs Per Swing, which is a play on what OPS stand for. This brings up a question that DRG and I were debating recently and he may write-up at some point from a more mathematical point-of-view. 383 times in the history of baseball, a player has posted an OPS greater than 1.000. In essence that means a player is earning more than 1 base per plate appearance. So, if a player has an OPS greater than 1.000 shouldn’t the opposition intentionally walk him every time up? That would be an OPS of exactly 1.000. [Outs Per Swing]
• A 2008 Tampa Bay Rays preview. Looks like we the Rays are going to be the chic pick to do well in 2008. [Jim & Bob’s Palatial Baseball Blog]

[ANDREW FRIEDMAN] Rays Had A Deal With Tim Lincecum In Place Prior To 2006 Draft

Yesterday Andrew Friedman appeared on Blog Talk Radio on the show “Talking Baseball” with Carl the Cabbie and Dugout Joe. The audio can be found HERE. While the show is two hours long, Friedman’s segment is over at about the 35 minute mark after approximately 20 minutes of questions from the hosts and one question from a caller. The first 10 minutes of the show made us want to stick chopsticks in our ears. If you can fight past the random inexplicable laughter after such humorous comments such as “you must be on your cell phone” and “we are coming to the (Rays) tank!”, the Friedman segment begins at the 10:35 mark.

Most of the interview is standard company-line non-talk, but we did learn one intriguing piece of information. In the 2006 draft, Friedman’s first at the helm for the Rays, the Rays actually expected Evan Longoria to be drafted by the Rockies, and had arranged a pre-draft deal with Tim Lincecum.

We had Evan Longoria first on our board…We thought Longoria was going to go two to Colorado, and we had cut a deal with Tim Lincecum, to take three. Colorado didn’t take Longoria two. We found out at like 2:30 in the morning, the night before and we ended up taking Longoria, and we are ecstatic with how that turned out.

We apologize if this has ever been mentioned elsewhere, but this is the first time we have heard it. Don’t get us wrong. We love the Dirtbag, but what would the Rays rotation look like right now if it included Scott Kazmir, James Shields, Matt Garza and Tim Lincecum, with David Price, Wade Davis and Jake McGee waiting in the wings?

SWEET FANCY MOSES!

Baseball Talk featuring Andrew Friedman [Blog Talk Radio]