[RI CONFIDENCE GRAPH] The Rays Confidence Graph Survey

Last week we debuted our improved Rays Confidence Graph. Below you will see two polls that ask about your confidence in the Tampa Bay Rays. Please take a moment to answer each question. We will present these same polls every Monday and will update the results in graphical form on Wednesday, and will be displayed permanently in the sidebar. The goal of the Confidence Graph is to get a feeling of how Rays fans feel about the team and the franchise and track how that level of confidence changes through time. Thanks!

Raysiverse events of the past week that could impact confidence levels…

• Rays gear seen in the wild…on semi-famous people!
• Willy Aybar spends a week in jail.
• Rays finally get their lefty reliever and it did not cost any prospects. Former Rookie of the Year also added to the mix.
• Recent moves in baseball suggest the Rays may trade Scott Kazmir following 2008 season.
• Pedro Alvarez is named preseason All-American, could be in Rays lineup by 2010.
• Carlos Pena might actually be better in 2008.
• Jason Bartlett delays wedding in case he is playing in October.

Opinion Polls & Market Research

Opinion Polls & Market Research

[HARDBALL TIMES 2008 PREVIEW] The Hardball Times Season Preview 2008 Is Now Available

The fine group over at The Hardball Times have just released their 2008 Season Preview.

This year’s effort includes 240 pages of team essays, player comments for almost 900 different players, projections, and other goodies. We’ve adopted Bill James’ “Team-in-a-Box” format for the essays and tried to maintain a similarly short and incisive style in the player comments.

For some reason, the editors have once again asked us to write the preview for the Tampa Bay Rays. While we do a fair bit of writing in our day jobs, we have never fancied ourselves as professional writers. We are just Rays fans with something to say and a computer. As for the book…we can only hope we have not embarrassed ourselves.

HERE is a sample chapter
HERE is a little sampler of the things that can be found in the book

And if you are interested in ordering a copy, HERE is the link for that.

[Disclaimer: No actual Rays, be them fish or sunlight, were injured during the production of this book]

Its the Hardball Times Season Preview 2008 [The Hardball Times]

[THE HANGOVER] We Promise That All The Talk About Prospects Will End Soon, Just Not Today

Tampa Bay Rays (3 days until pitchers and catchers report)
Just wanted to take a second to once again thank DRG for holding down the fort on the weekend, allowing us to enjoy are literal hangovers in peace. We have a few things on tap for you today but until then just the links and quick reminder that today is “Don’t Cry Over Spilled Milk Day“, so we will try not to complain about anything that has happened with the Rays in the past.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Armchair GM takes a look at who they think are the top 5 shortstops in baseball. No. Jason Bartlett is not on the list (apparently hot fiancee is not a criteria). But they do name Reid Brignac the top prospect. [Armchair GM]

You won’t see Brignac to open the season in Tampa Bay this year. After crushing single-A pitching in 2006, Reid had a huge drop in batting average, and a less drastic drop in power numbers when he transitioned to AA in ’07. Chances are he will get a full season of grooming in AAA this year, however, given an injury or two in Tampa this summer, you might get to see another potential star for the Rays. He is capable of going .300/20/85/20 if he were to get a full season of ABs.

• Anybody tired of Top Prospect lists yet? Yes? Too bad. Next up John Sickels takes a stab at what he thinks Baseball America’s list of the Top 100 prospects will look like. Evan Longoria is #2 behind Jay Bruce. In all, seven Rays make the list, not including Jeremy Hellickson who is Honorable Mention. [Minor League Ball]
• RaysBB has begun to unveil their list of the Rays top 25 prospects as voted on by a number of people. We participated, but we already see the fallibility in the concept. Remember, we are fans of the team which makes it difficult to be objective. Like most fans the list is littered with players from the lower levels that will never see the light of day in the major leagues. But when those players put up even very good numbers against other 18-20 year olds, fans start to drool incessantly. It is natural to see hope in the young. As a rule, we very rarely pay much mind to a prospect until he performs at the AA or AAA-level. That is why we will keep a guy like Elliot Johnson in our top 15, and ignore a guy like MikeMcCormick (despite our love for catchers). In spite of a horrendous 2007, Johnson has performed a strong season above A-ball, and his drop-off in 2007 was too great to be due to skill alone. [RaysBB]
• Rays of Light is fine with the Rays keeping Evan Longoria in the minors to start the season. [Rays of Light]
• Baseball Digest Daily held a roundtable discussion in which one of the questions asked was “Which team will surprise everyone in 2008?” Two three of the eight panel members picked the Rays. [Baseball Digest Daily]
• Rays Anatomy is back with their latest installment of “A Tale Of Two Erics” in which two points of view are offered on one subject. This time it is Dioner Navarro. [Rays Anatomy]
• Rays of Light pounds Marc Topkin for a random nonsensical comment about the possibility of the Rays signing Barry Bonds. We have covered this topic before. Signing Bonds goes against everything the Rays front office is trying to do. The Rays had two distractions on the roster last year (Elijah Dukes and Delmon Young). Where are those two players now? And Topkin thinks it is even possible the Rays would sign Bonds? After the link we will just complete our argument by quoting ourselves from November 19, when another website also clamored for Bonds . [Rays of Light]

Can we please ease up on the talk about Barry Bonds playing for the Rays? Let’s say for a moment that the Rays could sign Bonds for a reasonably cheap price…and let’s say for a moment that at 44 years old he can still hit 30 home runs and post a .450 OBP…and let’s say he does not get suspended or spend any time in jail…there is still ZERO chance the Rays will sign Bonds. Yes, he might still be effective and yes he would help increase attendance, but if there is one thing we can all agree on about the Tampa Bay Rays front office…it is that they are very image conscious. This is a team that just became the first team since the Houston Colt .45s to change their name without moving because some people react “negatively” to the term “devil”. And some people still think that it is possible for the Rays to sign a player that is A) a cheater; B) under indictment for perjury; C) universally hated by baseball fans. Let us put it this way. The Rays would not sign Barry Bonds even if he came to the Rays with a blank contract ala Andre Dawson to the Cubs in 1987.

• Bill Chastain says that Hope will flourish in Spring Training for the Rays, as he examines the few remaining question marks for the Rays opening day roster, the biggest of which could be Rocco Baldelli’s health. [RaysBaseball.com]
• Delmon Young is happier than he has been since high school, and he has decided it is time to grow up. We will believe it when he has gone an entire season without complaining to the manager or the press. [Minneapolis Star-Tribune]

Young, 22, said he made a conscious decision to change his attitude the day after the season, when he got home from Tampa.

“It was time to clean it up and grow up,” he said, as sweat dripped off his 6-3, 215-pound frame from a recent workout. “You get four years from 18-21 — you know, college time — where you can get in a little bit of trouble. But after that you’ve got to wake up and join the real world.”

• There is a new Rays blog in the neighborhood, Rays Rampant. So far we are not impressed. In just their second post they combined the numbers of players lost and players added to the roster this off-season. Never mind that a player like Eric Hinske or Mike DiFelice has little chance of playing for the Rays in 2008. Our biggest problem is that when they combined the stats in each group they were sloppy in how they calculated OBP. They just added hits and walks, divided by at bats+walks. Of course anybody can tell you that much more goes into OBP. For starters you divide by plate appearances. Plate appearances include other things like Hit By Pitch and Sacrifices. Did you know it is actually possible to have an OBP lower than BA? If a player has more sacrifices than walks, it will be, as a sacrifice adds a plate appearance without adding a time on base. It has happened. It is hard to take numbers seriously when they aren’t even calculated correctly. [Rays Rampant]

[2008 ROSTER] 2008 25-Man Roster And Starting Lineup Projections Redux

The 2008 25-man roster prediction is based only on players currently within the organization and will be updated when trades are consummated and free agents are signed.

We are now less than a week away from Spring Training and after a couple of more free agent signings, we now have a much better idea of what the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays roster will look like.

[Ed. note: The Rays depth chart on the official website was updated today and lists Evan Longoria as the starting third baseman. This is likely one person’s “best guess” as the team has yet to make an official announcement. However, it could be precluding a Monday announcement. We will have to wait and see. Everything else on the depth chart jives with what we have here, except they list Shawn Riggans as the backup catcher.]

Notes on the projection can be found after the roster…

A FEW NOTES ON THE 25-MAN ROSTER…

• Lineup: Now that Willy Aybar’s legal issues are behind him, it looks once agains as if he is either the starter or in a platoon with Joel Guzman at third base. However, we do give Eric Hinske an outside shot at winning the job in spring training. Again, none of this should have a bearing on what the team decides to do with Evan Longoria, as the team will do what they think is best for Longoria and not what is best for the opening day lineup. However, all signs indicate a start to the year in Durham.
• Bench: Jonny Gomes is the only lock and he really isn’t part of the bench. He will be in the lineup most days in right or at DH. The rest of the bench is undecided, but Josh Paul and Ben Zobrist are pretty close to locks. Zobrist is really the Rays only available backup middle infielder and Paul is familiar with the staff. Guzman on the other hand could be the starting third baseman, part of a platoon, on the bench, or off the team. He is he big question mark.
• Rotation: Not much has changed. Top 3 are locked in. Andy Sonnanstine is pretty close. That leaves four pitchers (Edwin Jackson, Jason Hammel, Jeff Niemann and JP Howell) for one spot. That is a nice predicament to have. If the season started today, we go with Jackson, but we are going to keep a close eye on Niemann. It is our feeling that the team wants Niemann to win this spot. He will be 25 and it is time to see what he can do.
• Bullpen: The signing of Trever Miller fills one of the last remaining open spots on the roster. Jim Hickey’s recent comments about Gary Glover gives five players guaranteed jobs. One of the last two relief spots will go to one of the “losers” of the starting rotation battle. That leaves one spot in the bullpen up for grabs. Juan Salas? Scott Dohmann? Grant Balfour? Your guess is as good as ours.

[FRIDAY HAPPY HOUR] Rays Of Light Rebuts Our Stance On Scott Kazmir

Yesterday we speculated that due to the current atmosphere in Major League Baseball, the Tampa Bay Rays would likely trade Scott Kazmir prior to the 2009 season. Today Rays of Light plays “Devil’s Advocate” to our obviously infallible argument, and suggests why the Rays should not trade their ace.

Let’s take a look at their key points…

After all of the strides that the Rays have made this offseason towards trying to build a winning teeam and finally having a chance to compete in the AL East, I just don’t think it behooves the club to consider trading its best player when at the cusp of becoming a winning team.

This is an excellent point and the strongest argument for keeping Kazmir around for 2009 and possibly 2010. As was pointed out in our comments, the Rays are in a much different situation than the Orioles are with Erik Bedard. The O’s are rebuilding. However, we feel that losing Kid K may not require a step-back in performance for the ballclub. The addition of Matt Garza, the extra year of maturity for Andy Sonnanstine and (gasp) Edwin Jackson, not to mention the emergence of David Price could make Kazmir’s loss moot. Most importantly, if the Rays want to remain consistently competitive as stated by the front office as their goal, then in the long-term, the Rays may be better off with the four or five prospects than they would be with Kazmir.

Scott Kazmir is more valuable to the Rays because of the amount of money he could help bring to the team by leading the Rays into a pennant race and, hopefully, winning a spot in the playoffs.

Again, we think the team can be just as competitive without Kazmir, especially 5-6 years down the road with all the prospects the Rays would receive in return. We have no idea how to quantify the effect of one star on the attendance for the Rays. They could very well be right. If it is true that the Rays would make more money from having Kazmir as opposed to not having him, then the team may indeed keep him around.

The thought of Kazmir being able to jump ship and getting nothing but draft picks back in return is a bit upsetting, but I think it can be spun in a way to make the franchise look like the good guys and maintain a strong fan base rather than suffering a severe backlash.

The Rays would only receive two first round picks for the loss of Kazmir via free agency. And consider the clubs that would be able to afford his services and we have to assume that the first pick would not come until late in the first round. The Rays can certainly obtain one or two good players via this route, but they would not be nearly as much of a certainty as prospects from higher levels. And we highly doubt there is any way to spin this in a positive light. The better argument is to trade Kazmir after 2009.

They can make some kind of cursory offer – something along the lines of 5 years, $60 million – that sounds fair and reasonable to the layman and makes Kazmir look like nothing more than just another greedy athlete on his way out the door when he rejects it.

If the Rays did this just prior to free agency…first Kazmir and his agent would laugh at the Rays. Then the fans would be angry. And finally the rest of baseball would point and say “That’s the Rays being the Rays”. A “cursory” offer would be 5 years/$75 million. And that is still going to come up two years short. Don’t overlook the years and just stare at the numbers after the dollar sign. The number of years will be just as important to a young pitcher.

And for what would he be traded? A few prospects and the hope that one of the young arms in the organization develops to be his replacement? Isn’t that the kind of pie-in-the-sky thinking that gets franchises in trouble? You KNOW what you’re getting with Scott Kazmir; Jake McGee on the other hand? Not so much.

True. But Kazmir is not the Rays only good/great pitcher. They still have James Shields and Garza. And the Rays are in the enviable position of having a number of top pitching prospects that are close to the majors. If McGee doesn’t pan out, there is still Wade Davis. And if Davis doesn’t pan out there is still Price. And if Price doesn’t pan out, etc…In other words…Eventually somebody will step up and fill Kid K’s shoes.

He is the best chance of the Rays winning the World Series, and there’s no price tag that can be put on that.

At the end of the day, THIS is the big question. Would the Rays be willing to sacrifice a bit of the future for the chance to take one shot at glory in 2009 or 2010? We honestly do not know the answer to this question, but everything the front office has ever said suggests that their #1 priority is to build a team that can be competitive every year.

Trading Scott Kazmir after the 2008 season is the best chance to achieve the goal of building a consistent winner.

Scott Kazmir Likely To Be Traded Following 2008 Season [Rays Index]
Rebuttal: Scott Kazmir Likely To Be Traded Following 2008 Season [Rays of Light]

[HOT STOVE RUMORS] The Rays Are Not Talking To The A’s About Joe Blanton

This is what we hate about baseball’s new “Hot Stove League”…

By now most of you have heard about the Rays supposed interest in Oakland’s Joe Blanton.

First let’s go back to the original source. Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports had a video report in which he talks about the possibility of the A’s trading Blanton.

From the report:

At least two teams are showing significant interest in Blanton, one of which figures to be the Reds…The Twins, desperate for a veteran starting pitcher, could be one possibility for Blanton. The Rays, deep in prospects, could be another.

It was just a guess. Pure speculation. Never mind that there are about 20 reasons not to make this trade.

Seems like a non-story right? Apparently not. We get 800 words from Rays Anatomy, and we get not one, but two posts from DRays Bay, including 750 words from RJ Anderson.

In Anderson’s defense, he actually takes the stance that the trade would be a bad idea (he is right), but both RA and DRB write their pieces as if the Rays are indeed talking to the A’s about a trade, despite a lack of evidence to suggest this is true.

from Rays Anatomy:

Having made one move for Matt Garza earlier this off-season, general manager Andrew Friedman is once again in the mix for another possible arm to add to the starting staff.

from DRays Bay:

I’m not going to divulge into the price for him, because like everyone outside of the Oakland and Tampa offices I simply have no clue what it is or will be.

Anderson does refer to the talks as “Joe Blanton rumors”, but the only reason it is a “rumor” in the first place is because these sites misrepresented the words of one person. Besides, does a rumor that has zero merit require 750 words? For comparison, most Rays columns in the Tampa Tribune and the St. Pete Times run between 500-600 words, and those are rarely based on the whimsical guessing of a FoxSports.com writer.

This is not meant as a referendum on either of these two sites. If a writer thinks trading for Blanton is a good idea or a bad idea, they should tell us that and why. But there is no need to present this as something that may actually happen when there is zero evidence that it actually could.

This is something that is not restricted to blogs. In fact journalists are also guilty, more so because of their wider audiences. Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote an article in which he speculated that the Rays would trade Scott Kazmir this off-season. His source? “An executive familiar with Tampa’s thinking”. For all we know, he talked to the VP of a Starbucks. Next thing we knew the rumor was everywhere, that the Rays were seeking to trade Kazmir.

In today’s baseball landscape, everybody loves a good rumor. But many are not careful as to how they handle those rumors, turning something as simple as one person’s “guess” into a full-fledged trade negotiation between two teams.

We understand it is a slow news week, but we owe it to Rays fans to report the happenings in the Raysiverse accurately and fairly. A typical fan that reads these sites should not have to take the time to read the original source. They should be able to read articles like these and know that the “rumor” was never so. Otherwise, we have to deal with a dozen emails asking us what we think about Blanton, which makes us write 600 words on why the rumors are toilet, when we would rather be talking about how hot Ben Zobrists’ wife is.

By the way…the second team that Rosenthal was trying to guess? It was the Dodgers.

Why Trade For Joe Blanton? [Rays Anatomy]
Rays Interested In Blanton? [DRays Bay]
A Game of Large, Grotesque Shadows [DRays Bay]
Scott-Stove League [New York Post]
Blanton May Be Traded [MLB Trade Rumors]

[THE HANGOVER] Opening Day To Feature More Bucs Jerseys Than Rays Jerseys In The Stands

Tampa Bay Rays (6 days until pitchers and catchers report)
Just the links this morning…we will be back in a little while.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• We thought we were going to have to retire our #40 Bucs jersey permanently, but it looks like it will get at least one more day in the sun dome. Mike Alstott will throw out the first pitch at the Rays home opener. Might there actually be more Bucs jerseys in the stands than Rays jerseys during the home opener. Magic 8 Ball says ‘Absolutely’. [TampaBay.com]
  
• Rays of Light breaks down how Trever Miller has fared against some of the better left-handed bats in the AL East. Verdict is, Miller will make a strong situational lefty for the Rays. [Rays of Light]
• Despite his most recent spat of legal issues, Willy Aybar is expected to join the team for the beginning of Spring Training. [TampaBay.com]
• Carlos Pena is only 50-1 to hit the most home runs in baseball in 2008. The Rays are currently 200-1 to win the World Series, tied with 5 other teams for the longest odds. They are 100-1 to win the AL, tied with the Orioles and the Royals and 50-1 to win the AL East, ahead of the Orioles at 100-1. The Red Sox are the current faves to win the World Series at 7-2, trailed closely by the Mets and the Yankees, both at 5-1. [Vegas Watch]
• Curt Schilling has a serious shoulder injury that may ultimately require season-ending surgery. This makes us giggle a little. Not because we enjoy schadenfreude, but because we wonder if those few people still think it would have been such a great idea to have him on the Rays for 2008. That would have been money well spent. [Boston Herald]
• The St. Pete City Council voted yesterday to accept community input on the fate of the land that is currently the home of Al Lang Field, if the area is not used for the Rays new stadium. a portion of the community would like to see the area become a park. [TBO]

[KID K] Scott Kazmir Likely To Be Traded Following 2008 Season

Rays fans need to pay attention to the sagas drawn out in Minnesota and Baltimore this off-season as the same situation is likely to unfold with the Rays next winter.

Last week the Minnesota Twins traded Johan Santana to the New York Mets. Santana and the Mets subsequently agreed to a $137.5 million contract extension. The contract given to Santana, as well as the deal signed by Barry Zito last season ($126 million), in all likelihood ended any hopes that the Rays had of ever signing Scott Kazmir to an extension.

Optimism for the future of the Tampa Bay Rays has been riding at an all-time high thanks to recent contract extensions signed by Carlos Pena and James Shields. After stockpiling an arsenal of young talent the team is now showing the players and the fans that they will not only develop the talent, but they are willing to spend money to retain those players. Unfortunately, that warm and fuzzy feeling should now be tempered by the Santana trade that on the surface appeared to have little effect on the Rays.

While Kazmir is not yet to the level of Santana and Zito, he is left-handed, he is a proven winner and he will be three years younger (27) than Santana would have been (30) in his first free agency season. And now word is coming down that $17 million per season may not be enough to keep C.C. Sabathia in Cleveland.

One does not need to stretch their imagination too far to think that Kazmir and his agent Brian Peters will seek a deal for at least seven years, worth $110 million or more, once Kazmir hits free agency. For a team that is likely to have a payroll in the $50-60 million range in three years, it is inconceivable that they would commit $15-17 million to one player.

In the past, it would be a little early to be concerned about the pending free agency for a player just entering his first arbitration-eligible season, but the times, they are a-changin’. In addition to the contracts signed by Santana and Zito, the Rays will also pay close attention to how the situation unfolds in Baltimore with Erik Bedard.

Bedard is another young lefty that figures to cash-in on a contract similar to those signed by Santana and Zito. Rather than wait until next year, when the Orioles negotiating leverage will be weaker, Baltimore has decided to trade Bedard this off-season, two years prior to free agency. In return, the Orioles are expected to land a young player with all-star potential (Adam Jones), a relief pitcher and three top pitching prospects. Most agree that the package the Orioles are expected to receive is much stronger than that which the Twins received for Santana.

Unless the Rays decide to move the team’s payroll into the $60-70 million range, a move that seems highly unlikely, or Kazmir is willing to give the Rays a hometown discount of historic proportions (something the players union will never let happen), the team will not be able to afford the services of Kazmir much longer. In addition, the Rays have the luxury of several top pitching prospects that could be ready to enter the rotation as early as next season, including Jake McGee, Wade Davis and last year’s #1 overall pick, David Price.

If trading the young ace is a foregone conclusion, then the time to do it will be following the 2008 season when his price will be at its peak. The Rays can expect to receive a package at least on par with what the Orioles received for Bedard, if not greater, as Bedard has a history of injuries and has never thrown 200 innings in a season.

Thanks to Johan Santana and Barry Zito, the 2008 season could very well be Kid K’s last in a Rays uniform.

Johan Santana Traded To The Mets; Rays Dodge Bullets [Rays Index]
Mets Finalize Deal With Johan Santana [MLB Trade Rumors]
Tampa Bay Rays Lock Up Carlos Pena For 3 Years [Rays Index]
Six Or Seven Years For James Shields Is A Risk Worth Taking [Rays Index]
Baseball Bogs Weigh In: Eric Bedard [MLB Trade Rumors]
Santana Contract Could Spell Sabathia Departure [MLB Trade Rumors]

[THE HANGOVER] The Rays Add Trever Miller And Eric Hinske To The Mix

Tampa Bay Rays (7 days until pitchers and catchers report)
The Rays signed a pair of players yesterday. Relief pitcher Trever Miller was signed to a one year contract that will pay him $1.6 million this season with a $2 million team option in 2009. Miller previously pitched for the Rays in 2004 and 2005. As a left-handed relief pitcher, Miller fills the last remaining hole in the Rays 2008 opening day roster. With five of the seven bullpen spots now spoken for (Troy Percival, Al Reyes, Dan Wheeler, Gary Glover and Miller) that leaves two jobs up for grabs. One of those spots (long reliever) will be filled by one of the starting pitchers that does not make the rotation (likely Jason Hammel). The final spot is likely to be a spring training battle between Juan Salas, Scott Dohmann and Grant Balfour.

The Rays also brought in former rookie of the year, Eric Hinske on a minor league contract. He will make $800,000 if he makes the team. Hinske was signed despite news that domestic violence charges against Willy Aybar have been dropped in the Dominican Republic. Hinske is being brought in as insurance in case Aybar is not fit to be either the starting third baseman or part of a platoon with Joel Guzman. Hinske appeared in 84 games for the Red Sox last year playing first base, left field and right field, hitting .204-6-21. Hinske could also conceivably become part of the right field rotation, as the team has made it clear that they prefer Cliff Floyd be the team’s DH and Rocco Baldelli may be limited to start the season.

While he have heard rumblings that the Hinske deal is similar to the situation in which the Rays brought in Carlos Pena last year, everybody needs to temper their excitement. The Rays also brought in Hee Seop Choi last year and now he is out of baseball. Hinske has not hit more than 15 home runs in a season since his rookie year of 2002. That includes four seasons in which he has appeared in more than 100 games. Pena had shown that he could at least hit for power when he was given regular playing time, with 27 dingers in 2004 and 18 home runs in half a season in 2005. In short, we would guess that he and Joel Guzman have an equal shot at the last roster spot.

Finally, it is not too much of a stretch to assume that the trade for Aybar and the signing of Hinske suggest that the Rays have decided to keep Evan Longoria in the minor leagues to start the 2008 season.

Miller’s contract brings the Rays payroll above $43 million.

Miller reunited with Rays [DevilRays.com]
Rays Sign Hinske [MLB Trade Rumors]

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• We are not sure if the title “The Eric Hinske Era Ends” is a reflection of his time in Boston ending or his time with the Rays beginning…or both. [Surviving Grady]
• The Rays apparently tried to sign Dallas McPherson, prior to trading for Willy Aybar. [Sun-Sentinel]
• How many other teams have a GM that is so dedicated that he will appear on a blog radio show that has about 20 listeners? Andrew Friedman will be a guest on “Baseball Talk” on BlogTalkRadio this Sunday at 11:00 AM. [BlogTalkRadio]
• The domestic violence charges against Willy Aybar have been dropped. [TampaBay.com]
• Bill Chastain continues his “Around the Horn” series in which he examines each of the Rays’ “positions”. This week it is the bullpen. [DevilRays.com]
• Sox1Fan takes a look at the Rays top 10 prospects. [Sox1Fan]
• Opponents of the Rays proposed stadium are expected to make an appearance at this morning’s St. Pete city council meeting. The protesters want to see the site of Al Lang Field turned into a park. [TBO]
• The Bleacher Report says there is a lot to be optimistic about with the Rays this year. [Bleacher Report]
• Mets fans can take solace in the fact they finally got back the pitcher they gave up for Victor Zambrano. Wait? You mean it wasn’t Jose Diaz you wanted back? [Mets Fever]

[RAYS CONFIDENCE GRAPH] The Rays Confidence Graph: 8 Weeks Until Opening Day

The Rays Confidence Graph will appear every Wednesday and will have a permanent home in the sidebar. The graph is designed to give us a look at how our emotional bias as Rays fans fluctuates through time. The “confidence” in the team is an inexact measure of how we feel about the team’s current strength as well as how much confidence we have in the franchise for the next 3-4 years. Notes on this weeks agida-level can be found after the graph..

Notes on the RI Confidence Graph…

• This weeks graph is the first in which the ratings were generated from a fan survey. All values prior to this week’s are a reflection of the views of the Rays Index staff and any number of alcoholic beverages. As can be seen, fans on average have more confidence in the Rays than we do.
• As can be seen in the first poll, nearly half of the respondents gave the 2008 Rays a confidence rating of 7 and more than half believe the team has a shot at the playoffs. However, the confidence is skewed downward giving an average value of 6.2. All of the votes that were more than 1 value away from the most common response (7) were below that value, suggesting that there there is still a negative attitude towards the current incarnation of the Tampa Bay Rays.
• As can be seen in the second poll, again nearly half of the respondents gave the franchise a confidence rating of 8, however in this case, the results were slightly skewed toward the positive, giving an average value of 8.1. In this case, there were considerably more votes that were more than 1 position greater than the most common response (8) than there were values more than one position lower. This suggests that there is a general sense of “hope” with the franchise.