[THE HANGOVER] We Promise That All The Talk About Prospects Will End Soon, Just Not Today

Tampa Bay Rays (3 days until pitchers and catchers report)
Just wanted to take a second to once again thank DRG for holding down the fort on the weekend, allowing us to enjoy are literal hangovers in peace. We have a few things on tap for you today but until then just the links and quick reminder that today is “Don’t Cry Over Spilled Milk Day“, so we will try not to complain about anything that has happened with the Rays in the past.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Armchair GM takes a look at who they think are the top 5 shortstops in baseball. No. Jason Bartlett is not on the list (apparently hot fiancee is not a criteria). But they do name Reid Brignac the top prospect. [Armchair GM]

You won’t see Brignac to open the season in Tampa Bay this year. After crushing single-A pitching in 2006, Reid had a huge drop in batting average, and a less drastic drop in power numbers when he transitioned to AA in ’07. Chances are he will get a full season of grooming in AAA this year, however, given an injury or two in Tampa this summer, you might get to see another potential star for the Rays. He is capable of going .300/20/85/20 if he were to get a full season of ABs.

• Anybody tired of Top Prospect lists yet? Yes? Too bad. Next up John Sickels takes a stab at what he thinks Baseball America’s list of the Top 100 prospects will look like. Evan Longoria is #2 behind Jay Bruce. In all, seven Rays make the list, not including Jeremy Hellickson who is Honorable Mention. [Minor League Ball]
• RaysBB has begun to unveil their list of the Rays top 25 prospects as voted on by a number of people. We participated, but we already see the fallibility in the concept. Remember, we are fans of the team which makes it difficult to be objective. Like most fans the list is littered with players from the lower levels that will never see the light of day in the major leagues. But when those players put up even very good numbers against other 18-20 year olds, fans start to drool incessantly. It is natural to see hope in the young. As a rule, we very rarely pay much mind to a prospect until he performs at the AA or AAA-level. That is why we will keep a guy like Elliot Johnson in our top 15, and ignore a guy like MikeMcCormick (despite our love for catchers). In spite of a horrendous 2007, Johnson has performed a strong season above A-ball, and his drop-off in 2007 was too great to be due to skill alone. [RaysBB]
• Rays of Light is fine with the Rays keeping Evan Longoria in the minors to start the season. [Rays of Light]
• Baseball Digest Daily held a roundtable discussion in which one of the questions asked was “Which team will surprise everyone in 2008?” Two three of the eight panel members picked the Rays. [Baseball Digest Daily]
• Rays Anatomy is back with their latest installment of “A Tale Of Two Erics” in which two points of view are offered on one subject. This time it is Dioner Navarro. [Rays Anatomy]
• Rays of Light pounds Marc Topkin for a random nonsensical comment about the possibility of the Rays signing Barry Bonds. We have covered this topic before. Signing Bonds goes against everything the Rays front office is trying to do. The Rays had two distractions on the roster last year (Elijah Dukes and Delmon Young). Where are those two players now? And Topkin thinks it is even possible the Rays would sign Bonds? After the link we will just complete our argument by quoting ourselves from November 19, when another website also clamored for Bonds . [Rays of Light]

Can we please ease up on the talk about Barry Bonds playing for the Rays? Let’s say for a moment that the Rays could sign Bonds for a reasonably cheap price…and let’s say for a moment that at 44 years old he can still hit 30 home runs and post a .450 OBP…and let’s say he does not get suspended or spend any time in jail…there is still ZERO chance the Rays will sign Bonds. Yes, he might still be effective and yes he would help increase attendance, but if there is one thing we can all agree on about the Tampa Bay Rays front office…it is that they are very image conscious. This is a team that just became the first team since the Houston Colt .45s to change their name without moving because some people react “negatively” to the term “devil”. And some people still think that it is possible for the Rays to sign a player that is A) a cheater; B) under indictment for perjury; C) universally hated by baseball fans. Let us put it this way. The Rays would not sign Barry Bonds even if he came to the Rays with a blank contract ala Andre Dawson to the Cubs in 1987.

• Bill Chastain says that Hope will flourish in Spring Training for the Rays, as he examines the few remaining question marks for the Rays opening day roster, the biggest of which could be Rocco Baldelli’s health. [RaysBaseball.com]
• Delmon Young is happier than he has been since high school, and he has decided it is time to grow up. We will believe it when he has gone an entire season without complaining to the manager or the press. [Minneapolis Star-Tribune]

Young, 22, said he made a conscious decision to change his attitude the day after the season, when he got home from Tampa.

“It was time to clean it up and grow up,” he said, as sweat dripped off his 6-3, 215-pound frame from a recent workout. “You get four years from 18-21 — you know, college time — where you can get in a little bit of trouble. But after that you’ve got to wake up and join the real world.”

• There is a new Rays blog in the neighborhood, Rays Rampant. So far we are not impressed. In just their second post they combined the numbers of players lost and players added to the roster this off-season. Never mind that a player like Eric Hinske or Mike DiFelice has little chance of playing for the Rays in 2008. Our biggest problem is that when they combined the stats in each group they were sloppy in how they calculated OBP. They just added hits and walks, divided by at bats+walks. Of course anybody can tell you that much more goes into OBP. For starters you divide by plate appearances. Plate appearances include other things like Hit By Pitch and Sacrifices. Did you know it is actually possible to have an OBP lower than BA? If a player has more sacrifices than walks, it will be, as a sacrifice adds a plate appearance without adding a time on base. It has happened. It is hard to take numbers seriously when they aren’t even calculated correctly. [Rays Rampant]

[THE HANGOVER] Evan Longoria And Justin Ruggiano Key Players In Team USA World Cup Title

Team USA 6, Cuba 3.
Team USA won all three games over the weekend including a 6-3 victory over Cuba on Sunday in the final to win the 2007 World Cup. Both Evan Longoria and Justin Ruggiano contributed in the final, with Longoria going 2-5 with 2 runs scored and Ruggiano had 3 hits in 4 at bats with an RBI single and a run scored. Ruggiano added a stolen base.

Team USA finished 9-1 in the tournament. Longoria was 11-38 (.289), with 3 doubles, a triple, a home run and 5 RBI. Ruggiano was 10-30 (.333) and 8 RBI. He tied Andy LaRoche with a team best 3 home runs.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Can we please ease up on the talk about Barry Bonds playing for the Rays? Let’s say for a moment that the Rays could sign Bonds for a reasonably cheap price…and let’s say for a moment that at 44 years old he can still hit 30 home runs and post a .450 OBP…and let’s say he does not get suspended or spend any time in jail…there is still ZERO chance the Rays will sign Bonds. Yes, he might still be effective and yes he would help increase attendance, but if there is one thing we can all agree on about the Tampa Bay Rays front office…it is that they are very image conscious. This is a team that just became the first team since the Houston Colt .45s to change their name without moving because some people react “negatively” to the term “devil”. And some people still think that it is possible for the Rays to sign a player that is A) a cheater; B) under indictment for perjury; C) universally hated by baseball fans. Let us put it this way. The Rays would not sign Barry Bonds even if he came to the Rays with a blank contract ala Andre Dawson to the Cubs in 1987. [DRays Bay]
• We still think the Rays hope that Juan Salas steps up and claims the closer role in the near future, but TBSF says that the closer-in-waiting might be Calvin Medlock. [Tampa Bay Sports Fanatic]
• The St. Pete Times has generated an artists rendering of what the Tampa Bay Rays proposed stadium might look like. [TampaBay.com]
• Tampa Bay’s 10 obtained documents that detailed discussion the Rays have had with the city of St. Pete in regards to the proposed new stadium on the site of Al Lang Field. They show that the city has (not surprisingly) expressed concerns over the financing of the new stadium. [TampaBays10]

While the Rays paint a rosy picture about moving from Tropicana Field to Al Lang stadium in downtown, the city says there are many uncertainties including the recent Florida Supreme Court decision about using what’s called tax increment funding to finance the facility.

St. Petersburg is also worried about the uncertainty of the statewide tax referendum that could reduce the available tax dollars to the city as well as the need to maximize retail space at the current Tropicana site.

Tthere is uncertainty about traffic circulation, parking and other impacts at the new downtown site. The city is also concerned about financial terms that will be acceptable to everyone.

• The Tampa Bay Rays believe that a new stadium could generate $1 billion in new revenue for the city of St. Pete, along with 2,500 new permanent jobs and 14,000 temporary jobs. [MLB News Blog]
• The Rays sent new personalized jerseys to several legislators, but claim they were not intended to sway their vote on a stadium subsidy. [tampabay.com]

“It’s the $60-million jersey,” joked Sen. Mike Fasano, R-New Port Richey, who got one in the mail Friday.

• Joe Maddon thinks that several voters did not vote for Delmon Young on their Rookie of the Year ballots because of his reputation and personal prejudice. Young finished second in the voting and received three first place votes, but eight voters did not include Young in their top 3. [tampabay.com]

“It’s really disturbing,” Maddon said Friday. “I can see him not winning the award, but leaving him off eight ballots is just a sign of personal prejudice.”

• Of course, it may have been because Delmon Young posted the lowest OPS (.724) for any right fielder in baseball in 2007. [Recondite Baseball]

The Hangover: The Emergence Of Dioner Navarro

Devil Rays 7, Yankees 6 (10 innings).

It is easy to talk about how good a hitter Dioner Navarro has been on the morning after he hit a walk-off extra-inning home run to beat the hated Yankees.

But exactly how good has Navi been in the second half? Since the All-Star break, Navarro is hitting .293/.348/.494. He has hit 8 home runs and driven in 31. He has the 3rd highest OPS (.842) of any catcher since the break, trailing only Jorge Posada (1.061) and Chris Snyder (.932).

Compare that to his first half numbers and we have the ultimate “Tale of Two Hitters”. At the break Navi was hitting .177/.238/.254 with 1 home run and 13 RBI. His OPS of .491 ranked 33rd among catcher with at 150 plate appearances…DEAD LAST.

All this is makes for a neat story about a guy that finally found his stroke in the 2007 season, but at this point, of bigger concern to us is: What can we expect from Dioner Navarro in 2008? Will he maintain his second half pace into the 2008 season? Will he continue to develop and post numbers in 2008 even better than his 2007 second half numbers? Or…are the second half numbers the result of a “hot streak” and the true Dioner Navarro is somewhere in between his first half and second half totals?

On June 22, Navi was hitting .170 and we presented some numbers to indicate that Navi’s poor first half was just as much the result of “bad luck” as it was poor hitting. In short the number of line drives he was hitting should have been translating into more base hits. And in the second half a lot more of those line-drives started finding holes.

Also keep in mind that Navarro is posting an .842 OPS as a catcher in the second half of a season. The second-half of a season is when catchers are supposed to wear down and slow down. If Navi had posted an .842 OPS in the first-half, would anybody be clamoring for the Rays to bring in a free agent catcher next season? Not likely.

But the most telling stat about Lil Pudge is 24. As in that will be Navi’s age on opening day in 2008. Anybody want to take a guess as to what Jorge Posada’s numbers were when he was 23? Try .255-8-51…in AAA! *Broken Record warning* Catchers are notoriously slow developers as hitters.

So what can we expect in 2008? Can Navi develop a power game and hit 25 home runs? Not likely. He isn’t exactly threatening the catwalks or the center field restaurant with his home runs. Most of them are line drives that scrape the top of the wall. But we do believe that when Navi fully develops he is a .320-.330 hitter. He hits a ton of line drives and he has excellent plate discipline.

Our conservative guess for Navarro’s 2008 line is .300-15-70 with a .370 OBP. For a catcher that is above-average defensively, that is plenty of offense.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• No surprise here. Carl Crawford will not play in the final week. [Devil Rays]
• Joe Maddon met with Akinori Iwamura and asked him to work out at second base in the off-season. [TBO]
• Gary Shelton says that this last place finish feels a lot different from years past and that there is hope for the years to come. But the most telling question that Shelton asks is: “How in the heck did this team finish last, anyway?” [tampabay.com]
• Buster Olney brings up the possibility of Barry Bonds playing for the Devil Rays, suggesting that the Rays and the Royals could be his only options for 2008. We find it hard to believe that a 73 year old Bonds is going to sign a subpar contract to play for a non-contender. Not to mention is the upgrade to Bonds at $5-8 million worth it, when the Rays have Jonny Gomes and Rocco Baldelli (not to mention Elijah Dukes) at DH at les than half the price? This is a non-story. [MLB Trade Rumors]

The Hangover: Carl Crawford Saves The Day

Devil Rays 5, Blue Jays 4.
It was the type of game that can help a team salvage a little dignity in a lost season. It was the type of game that can remind team that they do know how to win a game.

Andy Sonnanstine allowed 2 runs in the first inning and immediately we assumed it was going to be just another night like most other nights in the last month and a half. The Rays cut the lead to 3-2 in the 5th inning, but Sonny was touched for a 4th run in the top of the 7th and it appeared that the Rays would play just well enough to tease us and just well enough to lose. We envisioned a final score of 7-2 with the Bullpen falling apart in yet another hapless game a the Trop.

We never harbored any hope of a win last night. We had lost our optimism weeks ago. But there were two factors we did not account for. The first was the suddenly revamped Devil Rays bullpen. Last night, five relievers, including two acquired over the weekend and a third that was called up from Durham, combined for 4.1 shutout innings.

The second factor was Superman. Carl Crawford took batting practice before last night’s game and his sore wrist needed at least one more night off. In fact, it now looks like C.C. will battle a sore wrist for the rest of the season. In the 9th inning, Crawford pinch ran for Jonny Gomes after he drew a 1-out walk. Crawford’s legs are just fine and he immediately moved into scoring position by stealing second base. He then moved to third on a fly ball to right field by Greg Norton. A Josh Wilson base hit and the game was tied.

We still assumed the bullpen would implode in extra innings. We can only expect them to hold the opposition down for so long. Al Reyes gave up a lead off double in the 10th but settle down to retire the side. In the bottom of the 10th, Crawford once again factored into the game without even making a plate appearance. With Brendan Harris on second with 2 outs, Delmon Young singled on a ground ball up the middle. With Crawford and his sore wrist on deck, Harris tried to score but was thrown out at the plate.

In the 11th, Scott Dohmann allowed the first two batters to get on base. “Here we go again,” is all we could muster. Yet somehow, Dohmann pitched his way out of trouble.

Superman is due to lead off the bottom of the 11th. Joe Maddon decides not to pinch hit for C.C. despite his sore wrist. Would he try a drag bunt? No. And on a 3-1 pitch, Crawford fouled off a ball on his first swing and winced in pain. Now we wondered aloud if we would not only lose this game, but we would lose Crawford for longer than “day-to-day”. But this is Superman. Crawford took the very next pitch to just left of center field for a walk-off home run.

In baseball, more so than football, fans often root for the players as much as the team. We try not to get too attached to any one player. If a trade is presented that will significantly improve the team, we want Andrew Friedman to make the move no matter what the Rays have to sacrifice. But Carl Crawford is the one player that we hope the Rays never trade. He is the one player in which we make sure we never miss a single pitch in which he is at bat or on the bases. He is the most exciting player in baseball. He can do it all…even with a sore wrist. Superman.

Here is hoping that Carl Crawford is a Tampa Bay Devil Ray for the next 15 years.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Jays fans are not taking last night’s game very well. Great name for a blog, by the way. Before Tampa had a team, we spent much of our childhood in Dunedin for Spring Training and we were just as frustrated as most Jays fans every time Dave Stieb just missed a no-hitter. [THE TAO OF STIEB]
• They really aren’t taking it well. [Drunk Jays Fans]
• Entering last night’s action, the Rays had struck out in 23.7% of their at bats in July. ouch. [ESPN]
• The Rays may not be done dealing, as several teams may be interested in the Rays veteran relievers and/or Jonny Gomes. [tampabay.com]

[Andrew] Friedman said Monday night he “wouldn’t characterize anything as close or even likely to happen,” but acknowledged it could change quickly.

• Andrew Friedman could be actively trying to move Dan Wheeler who was just acquired from the Astros. MLB Trade Rumors offers some scenarios in which the Rays would move Wheeler for younger players. [MLB Trade Rumors]
• Al Reyes may be the Rays most valuable trading piece that remains. While the Rays do have an option on Reyes for 2008, we still believe that trading him is the best move. He will be 38 in 2008 and is only one year removed from his second Tommy John surgery. Now is the time to sell high. [TBO]
• Could the Mets be trying to acquire Carl Crawford? [MLB Trade Rumors]
• With Ty Wigginton gone and Ben Zobrist recalled from Durham, Brendan Harris will likely become the team’s most-days second baseman. [Devil Rays]
• JK Ryu was optioned back to Durham where he will enter the Bulls’ rotation to be a starting pitcher. [Devil Rays]
• Don’t get us wrong, we loved the way Ty Wigginton played the game, but for some reason we never really had such a strong affinity for the player, and were not all that sad to see him go. With Akinori Iwamura and Evan Longoria there was no r
  oom at third base with Iwamura likely to move to second base sooner rather than later. In addition, Carlos Pena looks like a fixture at first base for the next few years. Wiggy was a nice bat. He hit some clutch home runs and he was consistent defensively. Still, he was never going to be any better than a 20-home run, 90-RBI bat with no range defensively. The Rays pitchers have extremely high BABIP numbers and part of that is due to an infield that lets more groundballs through for base hits than would normally be expected. [TBO]

Wigginton was nothing but classy and professional during his time here but he also was soon to be a man without a position.

• Shawn Camp was surprised by his demotion…Shawn: Players have been castrated for less. [TBO]
• What if the Giants did move to Tampa-St. Pete in 1993? What if Barry Bonds was wearing a Tampa Bay uniform instead of a San Francisco uniform? [The Sporting Orange]
• Some bloggers made the trip to the Trop on Friday night and lived to write about it. [Sports Indeed]
• How many titles have the Devil Rays won? Well, since you asked, it is exactly one less than the Red Sox have won in the last 89 years. [the mighty quinn media machine]
• Red Sox fans did not take Sunday’s loss to the Devil Rays too well. [Surviving Grady]
• We are a little late on this, but congratulations to Casey Fossum and his wife on the birth of their third child. [Celebrity Baby Blog]

The Hangover: Ben Franklin Thinks Joe Maddon Is Insane

Benjamin Franklin said that the definition of insanity is “doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.” Today we introduce exhibit #1 that Joe Maddon and the Devil Rays front office are insane…

If we don’t come back after the break better in the bullpen, we’re not. … I’m not saying it has to be new people, I’m just saying we have to be pitching better. We can’t pitch like that and expect to compete on a nightly basis. That’s just not going to happen. [Joe Maddon via St. Pete Times]

1. At what point has the bullpen ever given an impression that they have the ability to “come back after the break better”? This is not a situation where they have struggled recently nor have they been plagued by injuries. This bullpen has been bad since day one and they are not going to pitch better in the second half. We are not going to give you the numbers because we just ate breakfast. To say that the Devil Rays bullpen has been bad is an insult to bad bullpens.
2. If it is not going to be “new people”, then who is it going to be? The same clowns in different roles? If Shawn Camp can’t get a batter out in the 7th inning, he is not going to get a batter out in the 6th inning. The team needs new blood in the bullpen. In the off-season it will need a complete overhaul. But right now it needs one or two new pieces or this team is in real danger of losing 105 games.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• It is a good thing that Joe Maddon gave Carl Crawford the day off on Sunday (he pinch hit in the 8th) because now C. C. is well-rested to attend the super-party hosted by Barry Bonds and Jay-Z. Also of note is a conversation that Crawford had with Scott Boras. Boras is not Crawford’s agent, but would certainly like to represent him. If C.C. does switch to Boras, Crawford will not be a Devil Ray following the 2010 season. Boras clients rarely sign extensions and almost always test the free agent waters. [Tampa Tribune]
• Chicago Flame believes that the addition of Carl Crawford to the AL All-Star squad cost Curtis Granderson a more deserving spot. [Chicago Flame]
• To say Edwin Jackson has underachieved is an understatement of enormous proportions. [NBX Sports Action Blog]
• Vegas Watch says that the Rays defense is just as much to blame as the pitching for the poor first half showing. There point is that the Rays pitchers have consistently high BABIP. It could be a sign of bad luck as more batted balls are finding holes in the defense, but when it is consistent across all pitchers, that means the defense is not performing. This surprises us as the outfield defense has been spectacular (outside of Delmon Young’s recent stint playing in the center field bleachers) and the infield has two gold-glove caliber players in Akinori Iwamura and Carlos Pena. On the other hand, Brendan Harris is steady but lacking in range which is the same that can be said of Ty Wigginton at second base and BJ Upton has range but is unsteady. [Vegas Watch]