[THE HANGOVER] The Price For Scott Kazmir Keeps Going Up

Tampa Bay Rays (66-96)
If the Rays want to sign Scott Kazmir to a long-term contract, they may want to do it sooner rather than later, because the price keeps going up. Jake Peavy signed a contract extension with the San Diego Padres that will guarantee him $65.5 million over the next 5 seasons. While Kid K has never won 19 games, much less a Cy Young Award, Kazmir’s career to date is very similar to Peavy’s first three full seasons and would it really surprise anybody if Kid K won 18-19 games this season? In 2007 he went 13-9 for a team that lost 96 games and possessed one of the worst bullpens in baseball history. Oh yeah, and he is left handed.

At the other end of the spectrum in terms of comparison is Jeff Francis, a lefty for the Colorado Rockies, who signed an extension prior to last season. A contemporary of Kazmir, there first two seasons were nearly identical, but Francis broke out last season, winning 17 games for a playoff team. Francis is due $19.25 million over the next four seasons. If the Rays are to sign Kazmir to an extension this off-season look for the numbers to fall somewhere between those two contracts. Let’s say 4 years/$26 million or 5 years/$38 million with the last year being a club option.

Peavy closes in on $52M extension [SI.com]

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Omar Minaya says that the Mets don’t need another starting pitcher. Of course the Mets currently have Pedro Martinez, Orlando Hernandez, John Maine, Oliver Perez and a minor leaguer to be named later…Conclusion: Minaya is lying out his arse…We wonder if Mets fans have changed their tune about how they can thank the Scott Kazmir deal for Omar Minaya and all those championships they have won since he came on board. [SI.com]
• John Keri interviews Matt Silverman and Andrew Friedman. [ESPN]
• No surprise here, but it is now official…Akinori Iwamura will be the Rays second baseman whether or not Evan Longoria is ready to be a major league third baseman. Joe Maddon says that the Rays will “mix-and-match at third base until Evan is ready”. If Longoria does start the season in Durham, the most likely choice to be the Rays opening day third baseman is Joel Guzman, who has a gold-glove caliber glove but comes with a gold-glove size hole in his swing. [Yahoo! Sports]
• Baseball America says that the Rays suddenly have a lack of depth of outfielders in the organization and are likely to select Brian Barton in Thursday’s Rule 5 Draft. They say that there are questions concerning Barton, but that the upside is well-worth the selection. [Baseball America]

“Maybe he’s not the type runner he was prior to the (off-season knee) surgery,” said another AL front office executive. “Maybe he comes back and is the same kind of runner. But he’s got the ability to hit for average, has more pop than a lot of people give him credit, and can defend. He’s a little stiff on balls in on his hands, but you could definitely see him going to Tampa with everything they’ve shipped out.”

• Not so fast, Baseball America is now saying that the Rays will not select Brian Barton. Rather the Rays will either sell their selection or select a relief pitcher. BA also notes that Rays’ farmhand Evan Meek may be selected in the draft. Meek increased his stock in the Arizona Fall League after a mediocre 2007 in Montgomery. [Baseball America]
• The Rays need a left handed bat and a right fielder. Marc Topkin points out that there used to be a player in the organization that fit the bill perfectly…Josh Hamilton anybody? [tampabay.com]
• David Price was given his 2007 Baseball America College Player of the Year award yesterday at the Winter Meetings in Nashville. For the first time Rays management acknowledged Price could very well pitch for the Rays in 2008. [TBO]

“He can come quickly,” Rays manager Joe Maddon said this afternoon, adding that it was within the realm of possibility for Price to reach the majors sometime in 2008.

• David Price has set a target date of July 11 for his major league debut. That is July 11 of this season. It is not out of the realm of possibility that the Rays rotation in the second half is Kazmir-Shields-Garza-Price-Niemann, with Wade Davis and Jake McGee pounding the mitts in AAA gunning for a 2009 debut. [MLB]
• Mike Pagliarulo (that Pags?) calculates Carlos Pena’s value at $4-5 million and explains the correct way to determine the value of a player. [Dugout Central]

[THE HANGOVER] Winter Meetings Are Underway In Nashville

Tampa Bay Rays (66-96)
Correction: On Friday we mentioned that Saturday was the deadline for offering arbitration to all players that are arbitration eligible. In fact, the deadline was only for teams to offer arbitration to their free agents. Players with at least three years, but less than six years of major league experience, are also eligible for arbitration, but there is a separate deadline for teams to offer those players arbitration. That would be the non-tender deadline of December 12…Trying to understand baseball’s contract rules is often like trying to understand the tax code or Joe Maddon’s starting lineups.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• We have yet another new Tampa Bay Rays website in the blogosphere, The Rays Way. The new blogger is younger, but he is a diehard Rays fan, which is not always the case with some of these sites. We are not saying a site cannot be good if it is not run by fans, but there is something that is added to the mix when the writer(s) have an emotional attachment to the team they are covering. So if you have a moment, stop by and welcome The Rays Way to the neighborhood. [The Rays Way]
• We think Marc Topkin is in Nashville for the winter meetings. We say “think” because there is no by-line on the blog post. We also assume it is Topkin (and not Eduardo Encina) because the writer announces that he will not report on every rumor because “so many of them are made up”. And we already know that Topkin is the one person that always just knows what rumors are true, and which are not. [tampabay.com]
• Marc Lancaster thinks the Rays will not be very active at the winter meetings (despite still needing a left bat, a lefty reliever, a backup catcher and a right fielder, not to mention possibly adding a veteran starting pitcher). [TBO]

But when the Tampa Bay contingent rolls into the Opryland Hotel this morning for four days of non-stop talk, if not necessarily much action, the group can take comfort in knowing most of its frontline needs already have been addressed.

• On the other hand, Roger Mooney believes the Rays may actually open up their wallet. This seems to be a bit far in the other direction. Based on the moves already made and speculating on arbitration values, the Rays 2008 Payroll is in the neighborhood of $38 million already, which is already a couple of million over their projected payroll increase of 20%. More likely the additions will come via trade [Bradenton Herald]
• The St. Pete Times has a story that shows the Rays have a lot of hoops to jump through before they get approval to build a new stadium. IF they can successfully maneuver the gauntlet, they will break ground in less than 500 days. [St. Pete Times]
• The Rule 5 Draft is on Thursday and the Rays have the first pick, should they decide to use it. MLB Trade Rumors has a source that the Rays may select outfielder Brian Barton, and outfielder in AA for the Indians. He is a speedster that has posted strong OPS numbers throughout the minors, but some worry that the numbers may be skewed because he has always been older than most of his competition and may not be a major league talent. It would cost the Rays $50,000 to select Barton and would have to keep him on the 25-man roster all season long or offer him back to the Indians for $25,000. In addition there are several Rays players that may be selected by other teams, including Dale Thayer and Nick DeBarr. [MLB Trade Rumors]
• A statistical look at Brian Barton and the other top prospects that are available in the Rule 5 draft. [Beyond the Boxscore]
• The Rays have already had one of their busiest off-seasons in team history, but there is still plenty of work to do. All of the sudden there is a glaring hole in right field that may or may not be able to be filled by some combination of Rocco Baldelli, Jonny Gomes and Justin Ruggiano, none of whom screams huge 2008 numbers. The team also needs a left-handed bat, a veteran catcher to back up Dioner Navarro, and a lefty in the bullpen. [Devil Rays]
• If the goal of the Tampa Bay Rays brass was to get more people to pay attention to the Rays, it looks like it is working. The Tampa Bay Bucs are now 8-4, following a game that I am fairly certain took a couple of days off of my life, and are playing their best ball since the Super Bowl season…yet Best Bucs Blog took time to write a post about the Tampa Bay Rays and all the changes that have occurred or have been proposed, entitled “Cautiously Optimistic”. The title is an apt one. There is still a lot of work to do. [Best Bucs Blog]
• Before last season we called for people to jump on board the Devil Rays Bandwagon, so as to enjoy the ride to the top. With all the recent changes others are starting to take notice and are ready to jump on board. [New University]
• It was no surprise, but on Friday, Joe Maddon named Troy Percival the team’s 2008 closer. While Al Reyes is the most directly affected, Juan Salas will also have a considerably different role in 2008. If Reyes were to be the closer in 2008, the Rays would have likely given Salas occasional save opportunities with the purpose of auditioning as well as training Salas to be the closer for 2009 and beyond. With Percy on board for the next two seasons, Salas, who has options remaining, may now begin the season in Durham as the Bulls’ closer. [TBO]
• We have no doubt that Troy Percival is great in the clubhouse, and he may be a great presence for the other relievers, but lets ease up on all the talk of the “leadership” effect from a player that spends at least 8 innings of every game sitting in the bullpen. [TBO]
• Dennis Maffezzoli thinks that the Rays added a couple of big pieces in Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett, in addition he believes trading Delmon Young might have been addition-by-subtraction. [Herald-Tribune]
• With the loss of Delmon Young, the price for Carl Crawford just went up. We wouldn’t go so far as to say he is “untouchable” as the Chicago Tribune suggests, but the bounty would be great. [Chicago Tribune]
• Oh, It’s THOSE Girls wrote an open letter to new Rays shortstop Jason Bartlett. Apparently they are going to miss his baseball skills and his cuteness, and have named him an “honorary boyfriend”. [Oh, It’s THOSE Girls]