[TROY PERCIVAL] Rays Agree To Contract With Free Agent Troy Percival

Buster Olney is reporting this morning that the Tampa Bay Rays and free agent Troy Percival have agreed on a two-year contract which will be announced once Percival passes a physical.

The odds of the Tampa Bay Rays winning the AL pennant are 75-1, and their six-player trade with Minnesota and impending two-year signing of Troy Percival — the latter deal will be announced once he passes a physical — probably won’t alter how Las Vegas views Joe Maddon’s team.

Despite the success of Al Reyes in 2007, Troy Percival will be the team’s primary closer in 2008. Percival, missed all of 2006 due to injury, and retired at the beginning of the 2007 campaign. He changed his mind and signed mid-season with the Cardinals and appeared in 34 games, posting a 1.80 ERA allowing only 24 hits and 10 walks in 40 innings with 36 strike outs.

Rays look like future force [ESPN]

The Hangover: The Emergence Of Dioner Navarro

Devil Rays 7, Yankees 6 (10 innings).

It is easy to talk about how good a hitter Dioner Navarro has been on the morning after he hit a walk-off extra-inning home run to beat the hated Yankees.

But exactly how good has Navi been in the second half? Since the All-Star break, Navarro is hitting .293/.348/.494. He has hit 8 home runs and driven in 31. He has the 3rd highest OPS (.842) of any catcher since the break, trailing only Jorge Posada (1.061) and Chris Snyder (.932).

Compare that to his first half numbers and we have the ultimate “Tale of Two Hitters”. At the break Navi was hitting .177/.238/.254 with 1 home run and 13 RBI. His OPS of .491 ranked 33rd among catcher with at 150 plate appearances…DEAD LAST.

All this is makes for a neat story about a guy that finally found his stroke in the 2007 season, but at this point, of bigger concern to us is: What can we expect from Dioner Navarro in 2008? Will he maintain his second half pace into the 2008 season? Will he continue to develop and post numbers in 2008 even better than his 2007 second half numbers? Or…are the second half numbers the result of a “hot streak” and the true Dioner Navarro is somewhere in between his first half and second half totals?

On June 22, Navi was hitting .170 and we presented some numbers to indicate that Navi’s poor first half was just as much the result of “bad luck” as it was poor hitting. In short the number of line drives he was hitting should have been translating into more base hits. And in the second half a lot more of those line-drives started finding holes.

Also keep in mind that Navarro is posting an .842 OPS as a catcher in the second half of a season. The second-half of a season is when catchers are supposed to wear down and slow down. If Navi had posted an .842 OPS in the first-half, would anybody be clamoring for the Rays to bring in a free agent catcher next season? Not likely.

But the most telling stat about Lil Pudge is 24. As in that will be Navi’s age on opening day in 2008. Anybody want to take a guess as to what Jorge Posada’s numbers were when he was 23? Try .255-8-51…in AAA! *Broken Record warning* Catchers are notoriously slow developers as hitters.

So what can we expect in 2008? Can Navi develop a power game and hit 25 home runs? Not likely. He isn’t exactly threatening the catwalks or the center field restaurant with his home runs. Most of them are line drives that scrape the top of the wall. But we do believe that when Navi fully develops he is a .320-.330 hitter. He hits a ton of line drives and he has excellent plate discipline.

Our conservative guess for Navarro’s 2008 line is .300-15-70 with a .370 OBP. For a catcher that is above-average defensively, that is plenty of offense.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• No surprise here. Carl Crawford will not play in the final week. [Devil Rays]
• Joe Maddon met with Akinori Iwamura and asked him to work out at second base in the off-season. [TBO]
• Gary Shelton says that this last place finish feels a lot different from years past and that there is hope for the years to come. But the most telling question that Shelton asks is: “How in the heck did this team finish last, anyway?” [tampabay.com]
• Buster Olney brings up the possibility of Barry Bonds playing for the Devil Rays, suggesting that the Rays and the Royals could be his only options for 2008. We find it hard to believe that a 73 year old Bonds is going to sign a subpar contract to play for a non-contender. Not to mention is the upgrade to Bonds at $5-8 million worth it, when the Rays have Jonny Gomes and Rocco Baldelli (not to mention Elijah Dukes) at DH at les than half the price? This is a non-story. [MLB Trade Rumors]

The Hangover: Andy Sonnanstine Earns First Win And A Nickname

Devil Rays 9, Marlins 4. It is all about winning series. Find a way to win 2 of 3 every time out. The win yesterday gave the Rays their second straight series win and both were highly improbable. After losing the opening game of each series with bullpen melt-downs of historic proportions, the Rays bounced back to win the final two games of both match-ups (Did you realize that the Rays are two nuclear melt-downs away from an 8-game winning streak?).

Yesterday it was Andy Sonnanstine to the rescue with his first major league win. Sonny will never be an ace and some nights he will get knocked around pretty good, but he is very capable of performances like Sunday. We just need to wait and see how often we see a performance like Sunday’s. If that turns out to be the rule more than the exception, Sonny will be a legitimate #3 or #4 starter in the Rays rotation for years to come. Still, at this point, just the fact that he is capable of a start like this is an indication that he is a far better option than Jae Seo or Casey Fossum ever were.

Before Sonnanstine was promoted, we heard that it was difficult to compare Sonnanstine to any major leaguers because of the accuracy and the movement of the pitches and the different arm angles. The most common name we head was a poor-man’s Greg Maddux. After his first start, we thought Paul Byrd was a more accurate representation. That is to say that he is a crafty right hander. Rare indeed. But Sonny throws much harder than Byrd, who rarely breaks 85 nowadays. So is there another player we can come up with? Well, we were watching the Marlins broadcast of yesterday’s game and the announcers tossed out a third name which we had not thought of before. Orlando Hernandez…We like it. El Duque is the only other pitcher that we have ever seen that uses as many different arm angles. Also, it seems as if El Duque has never thrown a straight pitch in his life. So, if Hernandez is 58 years old as rumored, is Andy Sonnanstine the second coming? Orlando “El Duque” Hernandez…Andy “The Duke” Sonnastine? Only time will tell, but we must admit The Duke is fun to watch pitch.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Andy Sonnanstine set a Devil Rays team record with 7 straight strike outs on Sunday.
• The Devil Rays had no choice but to shake up the bullpen, if for anything just to send a message to the rest of the team. On Sunday Chad Orvella and Tim Corcoran were optioned back to Durham.
• Buster Olney gives us a Q&A with James Shields. The interview is hidden behind the walls of ESPN’s “Insider”.
• Rocco Baldelli participated in an extended spring training game on Saturday. He is likely to play in four more before the team decides whether to activate Baldelli or send him on a rehab assignment.
• OK, maybe not the best reliever, but is Josh Wilson the second best?
• Maybe not, but we do like THIS SUGGESTION of making the rest of the staff watch the video of Josh Wilson’s performance. Maybe Joe Maddon could lock them in a room with the one inning on loop.
• Al Reyes and James Shields have much better chances to make the All-Star roster as pitchers than BJ Upton or Carl Crawford do as position players.
• Josh Vitters is NOT as good as Alex Rodriguez was in high school. So to compare the choice of David Price over Vitters as the same decision the Mariners made when they picked A-Rod over Darren Dreifort is ridiculous.
• According to Scott Kendrick the Devil Rays made a mistake by drafting the college pitcher over the high school hitter. He notes that the best #1 overall picks have been high school position players, pointing out the lack of a success among pitchers selected at the top of the draft. So, according to Kendrick, college pitchers should NEVER be drafted or David Price had a better chance of a solid major league career if he was drafted #2 or even in the 36th round. Neither makes sense. Mr. Kendrick…what we have here is what smart people call a “very small sample size”. Some pitchers succeed. A lot don’t. Whether or not a pitcher is going to be great has nothing to do with where he is drafted. It depends on the player and the team that drafts him. Maybe the position player is “safer” but hitters don’t win championships. Pitchers do.
• Based on the Rays drafting history only 2 or 3 of the 50 players selected
  will ever appear in a major league game.
  
• The Washington Nationals are reportedly pursuing Elijah Dukes.
• MLB Trade Rumors indicates that the Twins may be interested in acquiring Ty Wigginton. With the emergence of both BJ Upton, and Carlos Pena, this move makes sense.
• Off day today with an intriguing match-up tomorrow as the Padres come to town and will send out Greg Maddux against Scott Kazmir.

Draft Pre-Gaming: Beauty Or The Beast?

We are now less than 24 hours away from what will be the biggest day of the 2007 baseball season for the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. From most accounts the Rays are faced with the exact same scenario that the Minnesota Twins had to endure in 2001 when they had to choose between Joe Mauer and Mark Prior. In that draft, the Twins went with the can’t-miss catcher who didn’t miss over the “can’t miss” pitcher that has so far not even been close to the target.

All indications are that the Rays will take David Price and we have to admit that a 2009 rotation of Kazmir-Shields-Price makes us down-right giddy. Still, the new Devil Rays front office subscribes to two philosophies that fully agree with. First is the idea of taking the best player available, regardless of position. The second philosophy is an old adage in baseball of being strong up the middle, and that starts with the catching position. We still think the Rays will take Price, but it would not surprise us if the Rays selected Matt Wieters. The Rays pitching depth in the minor leagues is suddenly a strength of the organization and Dioner Navarro has yet to show signs of becoming the all-star many projected when he was the Yankees top prospect. Of course, Wieters might be an easier selection to make if he weren’t represented by Satan.

DEVIL RAYS DRAFTOPIA…

• David Price may have tipped the hand of the Devil Rays the other day when he participated in a conference call. He sounded a lot like a player that had already been selected by the Devil Rays.

It’s only a matter of time before they start competing for pennants…I think they’re going to have a great team. With leaders like Scott Kazmir and Carl Crawford leading a group of young, great players. It’s gonna make it a lot easier and fun to play. With manager Joe Maddon, one of the great managers in baseball, they’re obviously a great talented team.

• Good news for the Devil Rays, if indeed David Price is there guy. Vanderbilt was eliminated from the NCAA tournament much earlier than expected. The loss means that Price, who normally throws 120-130 pitches per game, will have 3-4 fewer starts this year than had Vandy gone on to win the College World Series.
• Three of the top draft experts from Baseball America participated in a roundtable discussion about this year’s baseball draft. When asked if David Price would be the first pick of the draft, Jim Callis and Alan Matthews agreed that Price should be and will be the top pick.

The consensus among most scouting directors is that Price stands above everyone else in his draft class. As one put it, “There’s David Price, but after that there aren’t a lot of top-of-the-draft guys.” I’d say that he’s rated just slightly higher than Andrew Miller was as the top prospect last year. Price also is advised by Bo McKinnis, so there shouldn’t be much risk of protracted negotiations. He’ll probably get the standard contract given to the best college pitchers each year, a big league deal worth from $5 million to $6 million, and MLB may have the Rays wait to announce it because it doesn’t want that deal to affect others. Price also would be a good fit for Tampa Bay. The Rays’ biggest weakness in the majors is pitching, even though they have some impressive arms coming up through the minor [Jim Callis]

The deal breaker comes in your evaluation of Price, for me. If he’s a true No. 1 pitcher, and some scouts think he is, I don’t see how you can walk away from him, regardless of your evaluation of Wieters. I don’t think R.J. Harrison, the Devil Rays scouting director, has any doubts about Wieters’ ability to catch and throw. Let’s not forget, Harrison himself was a tall, lanky catcher in his days in college at Arizona State who was drafted by the Cardinals. But based on the way Price has pitched, my hunch is the Rays’ like him as a future No. 1 pitcher, recognize the lack of starting pitching in Tampa Bay at present, and make Price their choice. [Alan Matthews]

• John Manuel also thinks Price should be the top pick but argues that a case can be made for Matt Wieters.

I think Price should be, though I do think a case could be made for Matt Wieters. If “signability” weren’t a factor, I’d really want to know, if I were running a club, if my scouts thought Wieters could catch and throw at the big league level. It sounds like he can, and it sounds like he can hit. A switch-hitting C, possible repeat all-star kind of talent, versus a front-of-the-rotation LHP. I’d actually consider organization need in that case, because to me both are legit 1/1 overall talents, and you’re not selling yourself short on talent. In the end I’d still take Price, but it’s pretty close on talent, for me. I don’t think there’s another true 1/1 talent in the draft; it’s down to those two. [John Manuel]

• Jonathon Mitchell makes a case for Matt Weiters over David Price.
• Scouting director, RJ Harrison claims that the Rays have yet to decide who the #1 pick will be.
• One deterrent against David Price is the recent history of top pitcher draft picks that have needed surgery shortly after being drafted and Price has thrown a lot of pitches this season.
• Buster Olney says David Price should be the guy.

Spoke with a couple of general managers recently and asked if they would trade their best young pitcher for Crawford — in both cases, these are excellent major league pitchers — and they immediately shot down the speculation. “No chanc
e,” said one. “I love Crawford, and there are a lot of players I would trade for him. But not that guy [the pitcher], because how would I replace him?”…So if the Rays pass on Price, they would still be searching for someone like him. They need to take the pitcher.

The Hangover: The Jeckyl And Hyde Of Baseball

You may have noticed a slight change in format. We run three daily features around these parts. Of course, by daily, we mean if we don’t drink too much the night before and are able to get our buts out of bed in a reasonable manner. Well, we are going to mix things up a little. On days that we run “The AL East Roundup” and/or “Down on the Farm”, those will be posted before “The Hangover” which we should be able to get up all weekdays and most weekends.

Devil Rays 5, A’s 3.
We promise that next time we take off for on a drunken weekend binge, we will leave you with something better to look at on the front page than Mel Allen’s mug…One trait of young teams is extreme ups and downs and this is not lost on the 2007 Tampa Bay Devil Rays. After taking 2 straight from the Yankees in impressive fashion, they followed it up by looking like a AAA team in 2 losses to the Angels. Somehow they bounced back to take 2 of 3 from the A’s. Scott Kazmir got off to a shaky start by giving up 2 solo home runs in the first. He settled down and did what he had to do. He kept an ugly loss (on Saturday) from turning into a losing streak, handing the ball to the bullpen in the 8th inning with a lead. Rocco Baldelli, who was a game-time decision as to whether or not he could return to the lineup, made the start and provided a no-doubt home run in 5th inning. BJ Upton was moved up from his normal 9-spot in the lineup, to the 6-hole and made Papa Joe Maddon look like a genius by driving in 3 with his 5th home run of the year. Elijah Dukes hit his first home run since the first 2 games of the season against the Yankees.

• Josh Hancock, who died in a car accident, was a friend of Casey Fossum.
• Rocco Baldelli started at DH, but is still not 100%.
• Jorge Cantu received his first career start as a first baseman. He went 0-4.
• Yesterday Shawn Camp relieved Scott Kazmir in the 8th inning. He struggled and Brian Stokes had to come in for the final two outs of the frame. With Camp’s recent success and a couple of shaky outings by Stokes, Joe Maddon will be day-to-day with Camps and Stokes on who gets the ball in the 7th and who gets it in the 8th.
• Buster Olney lists James Shields as one of his “payers on the rise”, citing an already impressive change-up that keeps getting better.
• Carlos Pena has been a pleasant surprise for the Rays early in the season. There is no word yet what the Rays will do when Greg Norton is ready to return to the team. Norton is expected to begin a rehab assignment in the next few days. Pena only made the opening day roster after Norton was injured in the last week of spring training. The likely scenario would be one in which the Rays send Cantu back to Durham, keeping Pena and Norton. Then the team would be able to wait until Akinori Iwamura returns before making a decision on Pena.
• Joe Maddon is worried about how often the Rays fall behind early in a game. A team can have all the talent in the world, but it does no good if they do not show up to the park mentally prepared to play everyday.
• RealGM Baseball is taking a look at all 30 GMs in baseball. In their review of Andrew Friedman, they call the hiring of Joe Maddon, his “signature move”. Signing Akinori Iwamura, and not trading BJ Upton must have been a close second and third.
• James Shields is the Rays most consistent pitcher right now, but he does have a penchant for giving up home runs.
• Here is a very detailed account of Ty Wigginton delivering his second child in the closet of their home. All we can say is “wow”.
• A look back at the Devil Rays 1997 expansion draft.

The Hangover: Bubble Boy Is On The Shelf…Again

Angels 11, Devil Rays 3.
supposed to win games if the team doesn’t score 15 runs a game? Let’s look at Are you surprised? You shouldn’t be. There is some good news. First of all, the more times this happens, the easier it is to swallow. The other good news is, the Rays are now one start closer to an all 25-and-under rotation. Last season Jae Seo suffered quite often from a lack of run support. We guess, you could say the same thing this season. How is Jae SeoSeo’s numbers on the season. In 5 starts he has an ERA of 9.51. In each of his starts, he has given up run totals of 5, 10, 4, 5 and 6. He has posted one decent start, against Minnesota, in which he worked 7 innings and didn’t walk anybody and gave up only 4 runs. Seo is not a major league starting pitcher right now. The Rays only have two pitchers that can win a game on their own. The others have to at least keep the team in the game, and Seo is not even doing that. Somebody should tell Jason Hammel to pack his bags.

• Rocco Baldelli (aka Bubble Boy) had to be removed from yesterday’s game in the third inning. He will probably miss the weekend series with the A’s.
• Next up for the Rays is the Oakland A’s. Tampa Bay is 8-34 all-time in Oakland. Over a 162-game schedule that equates to 31-131. Ouch.
• Buster Olney comments on the possibility of the Rays making a deal with Oakland for starting pitcher Rich Harden. There is no indication that any conversations have taken place. Rather, the commentary is more that the Rays and A’s would make good trade partners if Harden is available.

The Hangover: Strikeouts Are Fascist, Groundballs Are More Democratic

Roy Halladay reminded Scott Kazmir yesterday that he owns a Cy Young award and Kid K doesn’t. Kid K looked overpowering at times, striking out 8 of the first 9 hitters he faced, but he also gave up 2 home runs and 4 runs total in 7 innings as the Rays lost the rubber match to the Jays, 6-3. They will say that he only made two bad pitches all day. Well, winning pitchers don’t make bad pitches in crucial situations. The Rays bullpen, also known as heart attack in a can, didn’t help matters as usual. Brian Stokes entered the game in the 8th with the Rays still only down 1 and allowed 2 more runs to cross the plate, effectively ending the game. Rocco Baldelli was 3-4 and hit his 1st home run of the year. He was back at DH after playing center field on Saturday. Carlos Pena received his second straight start at first base and went 0-3 with 2 strike outs.

• Roy Halladay noticed the improved lineup that the Rays have this season. He stated that for the first time when facing the Rays, he felt that he needed to pitch around certain hitters and had to work for the victory.
• Even though Rocco Baldelli was back in center on Saturday, don’t be surprised if Rocco and Elijah Dukes continue to alternate in center and at DH, to help keep Rocco’s legs fresh. This will mean a lot more playing time in the field than was originally planned for Dukes this season, who was expected to get the majority of his at bats at DH.
• This just in…Shawn Camp struggles sometimes.
• Buster Olney points out that 7 of Akinori Iwamura’s 8 hits have either been up the middle or to the opposite field. He has now hit safely in all 5 games with an average of .562.
• This is a little stale, but new to us. Kevin Witt is back in Japan this season. He previously played in Japan in 2005 before signing with the Devil Rays. The 2006 International League MVP got off to a slow start with his new club, the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles. He struck out 3 times on opening day. But he came back in game 2 and hit 2 home runs. He is hitting .189 in the first 12 games of the season. There is a term in baseball for a player like Kevin Witt…AAAA-talent. In other words, too good for AAA but not quite good enough for the majors. We may need to revisit that term as a lot of players like Witt have success in Japan. Maybe we should call them NPB-talent.
• The Devil Rays have caught the fancy of a British baseball fan (those exist?).
• Josh Hamilton spent last Thursday in the hospital with a bad flu. He is better but missed his first scheduled start yesterday.