[THE HANGOVER] The Rays Drop $2.9 Million On Seventh Inning Pitcher

Tampa Bay Rays (29 days until pitchers and catchers report)

The Rays came to an agreement with Dan Wheeler on a one year contract for $2.875 million, avoiding arbitration. The salary will give Wheeler the 5th highest salary on the Rays in 2008, behind only Carl Crawford ($5.25 million), Troy Percival ($4 million) and both Scott Kazmir and Carlos Pena whose salaries have yet to be settled, but will certainly be greater than $2.875 million. In 2007, only four players on the opening day roster had salaries greater than $1 million, including Crawford ($4 million), Casey Fossum ($2.2 million), Ty Wigginton ($1.3 million) and Jae Seo ($1.2 million)*.

Wheeler’s deal leaves the Rays with three arbitration-eligible players (Carlos Pena, Scott Kazmir and Jonny Gomes). The remaining arbitration-eligible cases must be resolved by Friday or the player’s 2008 salaries will be settled by an arbitrator.

With three salaries yet to be determined, the Tampa Bay Rays opening day payroll (40-man roster) now projects to be just under $41 million.

*Both Pena and Reyes had base salaries less than $1 million but earned incentives during the season that pushed their salary above $1 million.

RHP Dan Wheeler and Rays agree to 1-year contract. [Yahoo! Sports]

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Rays of Light breaks down six things that must happen for the Rays to post their first winning season in 2008. The biggest point is the first and one that we believe too many people are ignoring when they speak of the Rays new and improved bullpen. That is: Troy Percival and Al Reyes are both old and have a history of injuries. To expect a full season out of both is expecting a lot. Maybe too much. [Rays of Light]

There’s no doubt that Al Reyes and Troy Percival can throw, but there’s also no doubt that at ages 37 and 38 respectively and each with a history of injury, they are much closer to their last pitch than their first.

• Baseball Prospectus lists Dioner Navarro as one of their 2008 “Breakout Candidates”. [Baseball Prospectus]

Navarro has been a completely different player since being traded to the Devil Rays in 2006. At the time of the deal, Navarro had a career OBP of .360. With Tampa Bay, his OBP is .292. That kind of drop-off at 22 and 23 is alarming, and deserves investigation. When you look deeper, you see that Navarro’s decline has been concentrated in his strikeout rate, up about 15 percent, with a concomitant drop in his walk rate… Navarro was one of the worst players in baseball in the first half of 2007, batting .177/.238/.254, with a 36/13 K/BB in 229 plate appearances. To the Rays’ credit, they didn’t bury him, allowing him to remain the regular catcher throughout the season. They were rewarded with a significant improvement in the second half: .285/.340/.475, with a better K/BB (31/17 in 209 PA) and the best power of his career…As a switch-hitting catcher with good defensive skills and the ability to post a .360 OBP, however, he’s a tremendous asset. Navarro, still just 24 years old, is in line to be an above-average player, a five-win guy, for the next three seasons.

• Inside Vandy is running a 32-athlete “tournament” to find Vanderbilt’s biggest star. Why do we care here at RI? Because not only is there a “David Price Bracket”, but Pedro Alvarez is the #1 seed in the David Price Bracket. Alvarez is a power-hitting third baseman that may very well be the Rays selection as the top pick in the draft this June. [Inside Vandy]

The Hangover: Rocco Baldelli Is Allergic To Baseball

Oakland 12, Devil Rays 2.
Boy, that escalated quickly… I mean, that really got out of hand fast. At least nobody was killed by a trident.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• The Rays offense has been anemic of late hitting just .198 and averaging 2.4 runs per game over the last 13. They are 4-9 in that stretch. [TBO]
• After two games as the Vero Beach DH, Rocco Baldelli was scheduled to play three innings in center field last night. Color us surprised, but Baldelli was held out of the lineup with “sore legs”. [tampabay.com]
• Was Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano the worst trade in recent memory? Here is your chance to vote. [Armchair GM]
• Casey Fossum and the Fossum Flop have signed a minor league deal with the San Diego Padres and they will report to AAA Portland. [The Oregonian]

The Hangover: Casey Fossum Tries Not To Let Door Hit Him In The Ass On The Way Out

Rangers 7, Devil Rays 4.
Remember that 2-game winning streak and series-split in Detroit? Seems like a distant memory after last night’s loss and knowing that Edwin Jackson is on the mound tonight.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Andy Sonnanstine is learning that what worked in the minors is not necessarily going to work in the majors and that he will need to take a different approach on the mound. The Duke is learning that he cannot get away with bad breaking pitches like he could at other levels. The breaking balls were so bad last night that even Joe Maddon was critical. [TBO]

“The breaking ball’s what’s getting him in trouble right now,” said Maddon. “He did a lot better job with his fastball today and he made some bad pitches with his breaking ball that they hurt us with. … We have to get beyond that with him. We have to make better pitches in those moments and he’s got to get his breaking pitches to better locations.”

• Did the Devil Rays cost the Red Sox a World Series title in 2005 and a shot at back-to-back championships? Gee we hope so. [Sully Baseball]
• Casey Fossum had to choose between being sent to AAA Durham and free agency. He opted for Free Agency and the Rays released the veteran on Friday. Fossum may choose to stay home for the rest of the season with his newborn as the Rays are still on the tab for the rest of Fossum’s 2007 salary as well as his 2008 buyout of $300,000. [Bradenton Herald]
• In the latest Baseball Prospectus Power Rankings (Devil Rays are 29th), they summed up the 2007 version of Casey Fossum better than we could have ever hoped. We would have chosen “vomit-inducing”. [Baseball Prospectus]

The Rays finally take mercy on their fans and demote Casey Fossum, whose VORP is so low we have to get special permission from Keith Woolner just to display it (if you’re looking at just the Rays staff, you’ll want to invest in appropriate protection). Fossum’s 7.70 ERA may be dreadful, but consider that it’s dressing up a major-league worst 9.21 Fair Run Average. Kudos to the Rays for taking only until the first week of August to figure out that wasn’t working.

• Carl Crawford was named the MVN “MLB Power Slugger of the Week”. [Power Rankings]
• There is a lot of talk that the Rays are interested in released relief pitcher Fernando Cabrera. We don’t mind taking a flyer on the kid, but we are weary. He has impressive minor league numbers but has been given several chances to succeed at the major league level. In 33.2 innings this season he has a 5.61 ERA and 39 strikeouts to go with 22 walks. Last season he posted a 5.19 ERA in 60.2 innings with 71 strikeouts and 32 walks. [tampabay.com]
• Rocco Baldelli is hoping to make a rehab appearance by the end of the month and be back with the parent club soon thereafter. But when he does return he will not resume his role of starting center fielder. BJ Upton will continue to be the regular center fielder and Baldelli will get spot starts there occasionally. He will also see time in right field and left field when Carl Crawford and Delmon Young need days off. [TBO]
• Marc Lancaster says that “all indications are the Devil Rays will be able to work out a deal with top overall draft pick David Price by Wednesday’s deadline…” yet he does not let the readers know what those indications are. No quotes. No hunches. No actions. If Price does sign there is no indication as to whether or not he will make his professional debut this season. The minor league seasons end in 2-3 weeks. [TBO]

“If he does sign with the Rays,” [Bo] McKinnis said (David Price’s representative), “then he is definitely in shape to pitch in games, if the Devil Rays choose for him to do so…David is extremely competitive,” McKinnis said. “He hasn’t been in competition since early June, so he’s anxious to pitch in any game – a Vanderbilt game, a Hudson Valley game, a Columbus game, etc.”

The Hangover: The Casey Fossum-Era Comes To An End, One Season Too Late

Tiggers 9, Devil Rays 6.
Just the links for now. We will be back in a little while.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• BJ Upton has taken to centerfield very well but he is still learning how to play the position. In the meantime he will struggle with mental errors such as the one that allowed a routine fly ball to drop between he and Carl Crawford on Monday night. [MLB]
• Casey Fossum has been outrighted to AAA Durham and Jon Switzer has been recalled to replace him. The move is likely to mark the end of Fossum’s tenure with the Devil Rays. Fossum has 3 days to accept the demotion or become a free agent. Even if Fossum does accept the move, the team is not likely to pick up his option for 2008. Fossum posted a 7.89 ERA in 10 starts and a 7.30 ERA in 30 relief appearances to go along with a VORP of -20.9 which was the second worst in baseball for all pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched (Mike Maroth must be having a very shitty season). [tampabay.com]
• Tim Corcoran ended his rehab assignment with Montgomery after 7 appearances. Corcoran is currently on the 60-day DL, and does not count towards the 40-man roster. To be activated the Rays will need to add him to the 40-man roster, which they could do after the demotion of Casey Fossum. They may also try to designate him for assignment and outright Corcoran to Durham. [TBO]

The Hangover: Carl Crawford Saves The Day

Devil Rays 5, Blue Jays 4.
It was the type of game that can help a team salvage a little dignity in a lost season. It was the type of game that can remind team that they do know how to win a game.

Andy Sonnanstine allowed 2 runs in the first inning and immediately we assumed it was going to be just another night like most other nights in the last month and a half. The Rays cut the lead to 3-2 in the 5th inning, but Sonny was touched for a 4th run in the top of the 7th and it appeared that the Rays would play just well enough to tease us and just well enough to lose. We envisioned a final score of 7-2 with the Bullpen falling apart in yet another hapless game a the Trop.

We never harbored any hope of a win last night. We had lost our optimism weeks ago. But there were two factors we did not account for. The first was the suddenly revamped Devil Rays bullpen. Last night, five relievers, including two acquired over the weekend and a third that was called up from Durham, combined for 4.1 shutout innings.

The second factor was Superman. Carl Crawford took batting practice before last night’s game and his sore wrist needed at least one more night off. In fact, it now looks like C.C. will battle a sore wrist for the rest of the season. In the 9th inning, Crawford pinch ran for Jonny Gomes after he drew a 1-out walk. Crawford’s legs are just fine and he immediately moved into scoring position by stealing second base. He then moved to third on a fly ball to right field by Greg Norton. A Josh Wilson base hit and the game was tied.

We still assumed the bullpen would implode in extra innings. We can only expect them to hold the opposition down for so long. Al Reyes gave up a lead off double in the 10th but settle down to retire the side. In the bottom of the 10th, Crawford once again factored into the game without even making a plate appearance. With Brendan Harris on second with 2 outs, Delmon Young singled on a ground ball up the middle. With Crawford and his sore wrist on deck, Harris tried to score but was thrown out at the plate.

In the 11th, Scott Dohmann allowed the first two batters to get on base. “Here we go again,” is all we could muster. Yet somehow, Dohmann pitched his way out of trouble.

Superman is due to lead off the bottom of the 11th. Joe Maddon decides not to pinch hit for C.C. despite his sore wrist. Would he try a drag bunt? No. And on a 3-1 pitch, Crawford fouled off a ball on his first swing and winced in pain. Now we wondered aloud if we would not only lose this game, but we would lose Crawford for longer than “day-to-day”. But this is Superman. Crawford took the very next pitch to just left of center field for a walk-off home run.

In baseball, more so than football, fans often root for the players as much as the team. We try not to get too attached to any one player. If a trade is presented that will significantly improve the team, we want Andrew Friedman to make the move no matter what the Rays have to sacrifice. But Carl Crawford is the one player that we hope the Rays never trade. He is the one player in which we make sure we never miss a single pitch in which he is at bat or on the bases. He is the most exciting player in baseball. He can do it all…even with a sore wrist. Superman.

Here is hoping that Carl Crawford is a Tampa Bay Devil Ray for the next 15 years.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Jays fans are not taking last night’s game very well. Great name for a blog, by the way. Before Tampa had a team, we spent much of our childhood in Dunedin for Spring Training and we were just as frustrated as most Jays fans every time Dave Stieb just missed a no-hitter. [THE TAO OF STIEB]
• They really aren’t taking it well. [Drunk Jays Fans]
• Entering last night’s action, the Rays had struck out in 23.7% of their at bats in July. ouch. [ESPN]
• The Rays may not be done dealing, as several teams may be interested in the Rays veteran relievers and/or Jonny Gomes. [tampabay.com]

[Andrew] Friedman said Monday night he “wouldn’t characterize anything as close or even likely to happen,” but acknowledged it could change quickly.

• Andrew Friedman could be actively trying to move Dan Wheeler who was just acquired from the Astros. MLB Trade Rumors offers some scenarios in which the Rays would move Wheeler for younger players. [MLB Trade Rumors]
• Al Reyes may be the Rays most valuable trading piece that remains. While the Rays do have an option on Reyes for 2008, we still believe that trading him is the best move. He will be 38 in 2008 and is only one year removed from his second Tommy John surgery. Now is the time to sell high. [TBO]
• Could the Mets be trying to acquire Carl Crawford? [MLB Trade Rumors]
• With Ty Wigginton gone and Ben Zobrist recalled from Durham, Brendan Harris will likely become the team’s most-days second baseman. [Devil Rays]
• JK Ryu was optioned back to Durham where he will enter the Bulls’ rotation to be a starting pitcher. [Devil Rays]
• Don’t get us wrong, we loved the way Ty Wigginton played the game, but for some reason we never really had such a strong affinity for the player, and were not all that sad to see him go. With Akinori Iwamura and Evan Longoria there was no r
  oom at third base with Iwamura likely to move to second base sooner rather than later. In addition, Carlos Pena looks like a fixture at first base for the next few years. Wiggy was a nice bat. He hit some clutch home runs and he was consistent defensively. Still, he was never going to be any better than a 20-home run, 90-RBI bat with no range defensively. The Rays pitchers have extremely high BABIP numbers and part of that is due to an infield that lets more groundballs through for base hits than would normally be expected. [TBO]

Wigginton was nothing but classy and professional during his time here but he also was soon to be a man without a position.

• Shawn Camp was surprised by his demotion…Shawn: Players have been castrated for less. [TBO]
• What if the Giants did move to Tampa-St. Pete in 1993? What if Barry Bonds was wearing a Tampa Bay uniform instead of a San Francisco uniform? [The Sporting Orange]
• Some bloggers made the trip to the Trop on Friday night and lived to write about it. [Sports Indeed]
• How many titles have the Devil Rays won? Well, since you asked, it is exactly one less than the Red Sox have won in the last 89 years. [the mighty quinn media machine]
• Red Sox fans did not take Sunday’s loss to the Devil Rays too well. [Surviving Grady]
• We are a little late on this, but congratulations to Casey Fossum and his wife on the birth of their third child. [Celebrity Baby Blog]

The Hangover: The Devil Rays Allowed No Runs Yesterday!

Devil Rays (off day)
The schedule makers must have seen this past weekend coming and mercifully gave the Rays and their dwindling fans base a much needed day off.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• BJ Upton and Robinson Cano were selected as AL co-players of the week. Upton hit .414 with 2 home runs and 8 RBI. [The Sports Network]
• The Devil Rays at their current pace would finish the season 54-108 and become just the 12th team in history to allow 1,000 runs. Since June 12, the Rays are 9-27 and have allowed 7.26 runs per game. [The New York Sun]
  
• Jay Witasick was placed on the 15-day DL and JP Howell was optioned back to Durham. Jason Hammel, who never even left the ballclub is back on the active roster and Juan Salas was promoted back to Tampa for the first time since being suspended for 50-games for steroid use. Hammel who was being sent back to Durham so that he could return to being a starter, will instead take Howell’s spot in the rotation and be a starter for the Rays. [tampabay.com]
• Casey Fossum will miss a couple of games to be with his family after the birth of their child on Tuesday. That sound you just heard was the moan from Orioles hitters. [tampabay.com]
• What happened to James Shields, indeed? We doubt it is a hidden injury. The Rays are going to be extra careful with guys like Scott Kazmir and Shields. An injured arm is usually easy to spot in a young pitcher. They will change their mechanics or they will be afraid to throw a certain pitch. More likely, Shields is just fighting through a “dead-arm” period. [armchairgm]
• A new low for the Devil Rays? How about a power ranking of #32. For those of you that haven’t had your coffee yet, there are only 30 teams in baseball. And frankly, we are in no position to argue. [Chicago Tribune]

What Do You Like Better..Christmas Or Trading Season?

We are now only a little over two months from the trading deadline, but it is never too early to speculate on who the Devil Rays will move before July 31st. This past off-season, the Rays were expected to big players in the trade market with several of their young players rumored to be on the move to any of a number of different teams. When the dust settled, Rocco Baldelli, Carl Crawford, BJ Upton and Elijah Dukes were all still members of the team and only two minor trades for Brendan Harris and Jae Kuk Ryu were made (Brendan Harris was considered a minor acquisition at the time).

The hesitancy this past winter should not carry over to this season. Expect the Rays to be very active in the next two months and this upcoming off-season. And unlike seasons past, any trades made this season will not involve dumping free agents-to-be for minor league prospects that are 2-3 years away. Without any veterans with expiring contracts, there are a handful of veterans they may choose to move, but all are signed for 2008 or have team options at relatively cheap prices. In addition, the team will be looking for major league talent or players that are very close to being ready for the big leagues.

While the focus will undoubtedly be on acquiring major league-ready pitching, the team will be more willing to accept hitting talent this season. With a number of top hitting prospects already playing at the Trop, the pendulum of talent has shifted to the pitching side as the farm system is heavy with major league pitching prospects.

So today let’s speculate on who could be moved and why. We are laying odds on which Devil Rays are most likely to be moved before July 31...

Elijah Dukes 1:1
Before this week teams may have been holding tight and hoping the Rays would just release Elijah Dukes. That move appears to be dead and any team that is interested in Dukes will now have to reconsider what they would be willing to part with for the 5-tool talent and potential future all-star. Dukes can be had for cheap, but he won’t be free. If the Rays trade Dukes now, they will be lucky to get a decent relief pitcher for him which about the same as trading in a brand new BMW with a 2 flat tires for a used Taurus with a clean bill of health. But in the end it is our feeling that the Rays front office has had enough and there seems to be just enough interest out there from other teams that somebody may up the ante just enough to tempt the Rays and take a chance on either the next Lawrence Phillips or the next Gary Sheffield.

Al Reyes 3:2
The Rays have an option year on Reyes for 2008 at $1 million but can be as high as $2.5 million with incentives. For a top-tier closer that is a bargain. But Reyes will be highly sought after this July by contenders that are all looking for bullpen help. How far are the Rays willing to push a relief pitcher with two Tommy John surgeries and who will be 38 in 2008? Chances are not very far. His value will never be higher and while the thought of a bullpen without Reyes in August and September is scary, look for Reyes to bring the Rays back a solid young pitching prospect.

Casey Fossum 2:1
The Rays also have an option on Fossum for 2008 at a relatively cheap price of $3 million. However, there doesn’t appear to be a spot for Fossum on the 20o8 roster and while $3 million is cheap for a lefty starter, it is not what the Rays want to pay a lefty specialist out of the ‘pen. Fossum’s demotion to the bullpen most likely increased his value to the Rays. If he can show in the next two months that he can consistently get out lefties, some team will roll the dice and toss the Rays a AAA pitcher for a lefty that can work as a specialist out of the ‘pen and can also fill in as an emergency starter down the stretch.

Ty Wigginton 3:1
Wiggy is an interesting case. He has now proven that 2006 was not a fluke. He is a consistent bat that has proven to be a clutch hitter when it matters most. He also has exceptional positional flexibility and has started games this season at first, third and second. Arbitration eligible, Wiggy makes $2.7 million this season and will likely command $3-3.5 million in 2008. With the emergence of Carlos Pena, Wiggy is now expendable and would make a perfect fit for the Twins who are looking for an upgrade for Nick Punto at third. Wiggy would also free up a roster spot for the Twins as they are a rare team that carries three catchers and Wiggy could serve as the emergency third string catcher. He is also the type of player that the Twins love. A team player that will do whatever he is asked to do to help the club win. The Twins appear to have their collective sights on Mike Lowell of the Red Sox at this moment, but if that falls through they are likely to re-address Wigginton. The Yankees could also be an option, but if George Steinbrenner is involved it might not happen as King George would never take a chance on helping the Rays.

Carlos Pena 5:1
The odds are about 3:2 that the Rays would move Pena or Wigginton. It is just a matter of which one at this point. The Rays control Pena for two more seasons, but his arbitration case this off-season will give him a large raise in pay. Finally emerging as the great hitter that many had projected, the Rays will be willing to pay a higher salary for the next two seasons if they believe that this recent surge is not a fluke. If they think he is peaking, they may decide to sell high and a team like the Yankees that is looking for an upgrade at first base have some solid pitching prospects.

Jorge Cantu 10:1
Cantu…Cantu…Cantu…This is a player the Rays would love to move but it doesn’t look like they will find any buyers. It is not a good sign when BJ Upton goes on the DL and the team does not even have enough confidence in Cantu’s defensive or offensive abilities to give him any starts at second base in Upton’s absence. So right now he is a first baseman with no experience at first base, that may or may not be able to hit major league pitching. If Cantu is moved, he won’t bring much back in return.

Rocco Baldelli 30:1
Despite his continued struggles with hamstring injuries, teams are likely to approach the Rays and see how much it will cost to acquire the center fielder. Hamstring injuries are something that a player is capable of over-coming and Rocco showed in the second half of 2006 that he is still a formidable force when he is healthy. If Rocco was healthy and if Elijah Dukes wasn’t such a mischievous badger, this number would be much lower. But if we know one thing about the Rays front office, it is that they are smart businessmen and trading Rocco now is not a smart business move. His value could not be any lower unless he decides to send Joe Maddon a picture of a gu
n and/or impregnates Carl Crawford. The Rays are more likely to work with Baldelli to change his running style and improve his hamstrings and wait for him to once again be the great center fielder everybody knows he can be. Then again, the Red Sox are probably secretly drooling over the New England native with the light complexion and good looks, that would be an instant star in Beantown. If the Red Sox do try to acquire Rocco, it is more likely to happen in the off-season, rather than risk inserting an injury-prone player into the middle of a world series run.

The Hangover: Edwin Jackson Is The Big Tease

Devil Rays 10, D-Backs 2.
Last night was as frustrating as a 10-2 win can ever be. Edwin Jackson pitched 4.2 innings before being removed from the game for precautionary reasons. Jackson was experiencing cramping in the index finger of his pitching hand. Last night was frustrating because on the surface it looked like a strong pitching performance by Jackson, who was 1 out from his victory since 2005. He was 1 out away from his first victory with the Devil Rays.

But this outing was anything but a strong performance. Jackson did hold the D-Backs to 2 runs in his 4+ innings of work. However, he surrendered 4 hits and 4 other batters reached base via the walk. Jackson needed 92 pitches in less than 5 innings and only 50 were thrown for strikes. Assuming that Jackson’s injury is not serious, he likely pitched just well enough to keep his spot in the rotation. But please don’t tell us that it was a “positive outing” or a “step forward” in his development.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• What would be less surprising…Elijah Dukes makes news for something off the field or Rocco Baldelli re-injuring his hamstring? Let’s see…today is Tuesday…Alex we’ll take Bubble Boy’s hamstring for $500…Baldelli tweaked his hamstring while batting last night in Durham. Rocco was originally scheduled to come off the DL and rejoin the Rays on Friday. That plan seems unlikely to happen now.
• Casey Fossum believes he is starting to regain some of his velocity in the bullpen, in hopes of returning to the rotation.
• Gotham Baseball reports that the Yankees are pursuing a first baseman and they have their eyes on Carlos Pena. The Devil Rays may not be able to acquire Tyler Clippard but they may be interested in Sean Henn. Henn is a lefty that the Yankees have used in middle relief this season, but was used exclusively as a starter in the minors. If Pena is too expensive the Yankees may be willing to settle for Ty Wigginton.
• What grade would you give the Devil Rays so far in 2007? Despite being on pace for a franchise record 72 wins, we still get a sense that the team is underperforming. We’d say a C- is about right.
• It is our belief that a manager gets too much credit when the team is doing well and too much criticism when the team is struggling.
• Joe Maddon and his longtime girlfriend are now engaged. Let’s assume they get married following the 2008 season. Then allow for one year as newlyweds. That means by 2010, Papa Joe will start acting more like Lou Piniella.

[THE HANGOVER] Seo Long, Don’t Let The Door Hit You In The Ass

Royals 4, Devil Rays 1.
Only the Rays could throw up a stinker and make Brian Bannister look like Johan Santana.

The Devil Rays finally made changes to the rotation that we all have patiently waited for. OK, maybe we weren’t very patient at times. Jae Seo has been designated for assignment and Casey Fossum has been banished to the bullpen. Hey! The Rays have a lefty in the pen! Andy Sonnanstine and JP Howell were called up to take their places in the rotation. In addition, Jae Kuk Ryu was demoted to Durham where he will join the Bulls rotation.

So what does this mean for each of the players involved, what does it mean for the team and what does it mean for the fans?

The Rays have 10 days to try and work a trade for Seo. Will there be any takers? Hard to say. The Rays are still on the hook for about $850K of Seo’s $1.2 million salary for 2007. Therefore it is in the best interest of the team’s pocket books to try and find a trade partner. While the amount is small for most teams we can’t see anybody offering anything of substance and acquiring the contract. More likely teams will sit tight, and in ten days Seo will be released and signed to a minor league contract by somebody.

The Rays would also like to move Fossum and the rest of his contract. He is in the final year of his contract and is set to earn $2.2 million this season. There is a team option for $3 million next season. Moving Fossum to the bullpen gives the team some time to look for a trade partner. There is likely to be more suitors for Fossum’s services as he is a lefty and the move to the bullpen will give the Rays a chance to audition Fossum for other teams that may be in the market for a lefty bullpen arm for the stretch drive.

Howell will get the start on Sunday and Sonnanstine will throw on Tuesday in Toronto. For Howell, with Jeff Niemann, Jason Hammel and Mitch Talbot still lurking at Durham, this is likely his last chance to prove that he belongs in the Rays rotation. No telling how many starts he will get but look for 10-15 outings at the end of which the team will evaluate and either keep him in the rotation or make a move to Niemann or Hammel.

Sonannstine is the big mystery. In his last outing at Durham he gave up 10 hits and 6 innings. We mentioned that this should be a red flag for Rays fans because Sonny is not overpowering and he always in the strike zone which means if he doesn’t have his best stuff he is hittable. Well, now comes this scouting report from Shawn Riggans who caught Sonny for most of his starts. Riggans confirms exactly what we should all worry about.

Sonnie, he’s excellent. He pounds the zone. His game is either going to go one way or the other. He’s either going to dominate you or you’re going to pound him because he throws so many strikes. He uses three different arm angles, from up top, three quarters, and low three-quarters. Three pitches from each arm angle, excellent control, he doesn’t walk many guys. He’s working on coming inside a little more. Down and away is his money pitch, fastball down and away; slider in the same location. The one problem he has is coming inside, sometimes it leaks out over the plate. He can still throw fastballs by guys with his deception.

All he does is throw strikes and all he does is win. But that was the minor leagues. Lots of pitchers can get minor leaguers out. It will be much more difficult to fool major leaguers. We are pulling for Sonny but we have to admit that we are worried that he will be a classic AAAA pitcher. Hope we are wrong.

And for Rays fans? Well, the beer will go down a little easier tonight knowing that we never have to watch Jae Seo or Casey Fossum start a game in a Rays uniform…Ever.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Jae Seo was allowing hitters to hit .390 when they put the ball in play. That is an unheard of rate, and not good when you are not a strikeout pitcher.
• Jon Switzer returned from the 60-day DL and was optioned to Durham.
  

[THE HANGOVER] We Knew The Bullpen Was Bad, But Geez

Something smells…Let’s see if we can figure out what it is…

Yesterday, somebody in the comments section asked about the number of runners inherited that Shawn Camp had allowed to score this year. Of course, we really don’t need a statistics to tell us that the answer is somewhere between “too many” and “seriously? Shawn Camp?…again?”

While most media outlets still list wins, losses, saves and ERA, a true measure of a relief pitchers effectiveness is their ability to come in and put out a fire. Strangely, IR (number of inherited runners) IRS (number of inherited runners scored) and IRS% (percentage of inherited runners that scored) are elusive numbers. None of the giant online media outlets list the numbers. But never fear, after some searching, the fine folks over at Baseball Prospectus have come through (as usual).

First let us take a look at the numbers for every pitcher that has pitched in relief this season for the Devil Rays. In all Major League games this season, relief pitchers have faced a total of 1906 IR. Of those runners, 589 have come around to score for a ML average of 30.9%.

PITCHER	IR	IRS	IRS%
Shawn Camp	29	13	44.8%
Gary Glover	16	3	18.8
Brian Stokes	15	6	40.0
Ruddy Lugo	10	7	70.0
Juan Salas	9	3	33.3
Al Reyes	4	1	25.0
Tim Corcoran	2	1	50.0
Chad Orvella	2	0	0.0
Jae Kuk Ryu	0	0	0.0

Jae Kuk Ryu is the only pitcher that is yet to enter a game with a runner on base. As we can see from the numbers, Shawn Camp, as well as Brian Stokes and Ruddy Lugo (currently in AAA) have been atrocious. Gary Glover has been surprisingly effective.

Now let’s see how the Devil Rays rank as a team against the rest of Major League relief pitchers…

TEAM	IR	IRS	IRS%
Colorado	56	25	44.6%
St. Louis	47	19	40.4
TAMPA BAY DEVIL RAYS	87	34	39.1
New York Yankees	83	32	38.6
Baltimore	81	31	38.3
Kansas City	78	29	37.2

As a team the Devil Rays have allowed 34 of 87 IR (both Major League highs) to score or 39.1%. Sadly, the Rockies, as a team, have been nearly as bad as Shawn Camp, but they have faced 31 fewer IR than the Rays. The Yankees and Orioles actually have similar numbers to the Rays.

There have been 27 pitchers that have inherited at least 15 runners in 2007…

PITCHER	IR	IRS	IRS%
Shawn Camp	29	13	44.8%
Geoff Geary	28	5	17.9
Brian Shouse	25	2	8.0
Aaron Fultz	20	7	35.0
John Parrish	20	6	30.0
Micah Bowie	20	6	30.0
Joseph Smith	19	6	31.6
Mike MacDougal	19	5	26.3
Jack Taschner	19	5	26.3

Shawn Camp has inherited more base runners than any other pitcher, with 29 and has allowed the most to score by a wide margin. His IRS% (44.8%) is the 3rd worst among pitchers with at least 15 IR. If Camp only allowed the league average, he would have only allowed 9 IRS, so Camp has allowed 4 more inherited runners to score than an average pitcher would have if placed in the same situations. Ruddy Lugo is tied for the 7th most IRS with 7 and Brian Stokes is tied for 10th with 6. On a brighter note, Glover has the 5th best IRS% of pitchers with at least 15 IR (18.8%).

Of the 74 pitchers that have faced at least 10 IR, Lugo is the league leader with 70% of those runners scoring.

We’re no brain surgeons here, but maybe Camp and Stokes shouldn’t be entering close games with runners on base. Just a hunch.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Andrew Friedman recently spent 5 days in Durham watching each of the Rays 5 AAA starting pitchers. It appears as though we are getting closer to seeing some changes in the Devil Rays rotation. In the meantime our Jae Seo and Casey Fossum voodoo dolls are taking a beating.

Each pitcher from the group – left-hander J.P. Howell and right-handers Andy Sonnanstine, Jason Hammel, Jeff Niemann and Mitch Talbot – is working on a few specific areas of interest. Friedman wouldn’t handicap who might get the first call to Tampa Bay, but said he could see a couple being ready “very soon” while others have some work to do.

• The Rays have a catching problem. Josh Paul, who was hit by a pitch spiked on a play at home plate on Sunday, needs to head to the DL. The problem is, his replacement, Shawn Riggans is on the DL at AAA Durham and not eligible to come off until Thursday. The Rays do not have any other catchers on the 40-man roster, so if they wanted to replace Paul with somebody else, they would need to designate somebody for assignment. Instead the Rays will keep Paul active as the emergency backup catcher and hope they don’t play any 16 inning games in the Mariners series.
• The Mariners come to the Trop for a 3-game set beginning tonight. Seattle is 19-21, 5.5 games behind the Angels in the AL West. They are coming off a loss to Cleveland that was a makeup game from earlier this season. They have lost 5 of 6. The Rays were 3-6 against the Mariners in 2006.