[THE HANGOVER] All Evan Longoria Needs Is A Chance, And Now He’s Got It

Tampa Bay Rays (1 day until pitchers and catchers report)

It is what he wanted.

It is what we wanted.

It is not necessarily what the front office wanted.

But now it looks like Evan Longoria will get the opportunity to prove in Spring Training that he belongs in the majors.

And a chance is all the Dirtbag needs. It won’t take much to convince Joe Maddon. And we have a feeling that if Papa Joe can be convinced, it won’t take much to convince Andrew Friedman.

Longoria will not have to hit .400 in Spring Training and he will not have to hit 10 home runs. In fact, we have a feeling that as long as he does not fall flat on his face, he will be named the Rays opening day starter at third base. As much as Papa Joe likes to crunch numbers on his computer, he still loves himself a good ole fashioned baseball player. Evan Longoria is a baseball player. And Maddon will envision that rubbing off on the other players

Maddon is destined to fall in love with the 22 year old. He will see enough in his swing and his glove to know that he is not going to be over-matched at the major league level.

Longoria may struggle at first. But he is too good a hitter to fail. And Papa Joe will see that.

Longoria will get chance to earn spot [Rays Report]

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• ESPN.com takes a closer look at the “revitalized” Carl Crawford. C.C. speaks about having more energy after learning that he was allergic to dairy and wheat products and the subsequent change in his diet. He has also upped his workout regimen and has dropped his body fat from 12% to 8% since December. He also doesn’t hold back in his portrayal of just how miserable 2007 was for the Rays. [ESPN]

“It’s just going to be about playing baseball again, that’s what I’m really excited about this season,” Crawford said at his offseason home. “With all the B.S. that was going on last year, I think we lost focus on the task at hand.” Crawford refers to the ongoing soap opera that featured Elijah Dukes and Delmon Young. Both of the enormously talented players couldn’t stay out of trouble; Dukes with his off-field issues, and Young with his me-first attitude that resulted in him at first walking out on manager Joe Maddon on the second-to-last day of the 2007 regular season. Crawford calls last season a year “he never wants to remember,” and the distractions, at times, were almost unbearable…”That move, for Garza, spoke volumes,” Crawford said. “For the first time I felt like this organization was serious about winning. That’s the reason why I think everybody is excited because everybody sees that.”

• Joe Maddon confirmed something that we had expected, that is five of the seven bullpen spots are already spoken for, all but guaranteeing that Gary Glover will be on the opening day roster. That leaves one spot that will go to a “loser” in the battle for the starting rotation and the final spot will be between Juan Salas, Scott Dohmann and Grant Balfour. [The Heater]
• Shawn Riggans enters Spring Training healthy and understands this may be his last shot at winning a job with the Rays now that John Jaso has been added to the 40-man roster. Marc Topkin refers to Riggans as the “apparent leading candidate for the backup catcher’s job.” This might be a stretch after the recent additions of one veteran catcher in Mike DiFelice and the return of Josh Paul who is familiar with the Rays pitching staff. It is our feeling that if the season started today Paul’s experience and familiarity with the pitching staff will be a better partner to the young Dioner Navarro. [St. Pete Times]
• Marc Topkin reviews all the changes the Rays have made this off-season. [St. Pete Times]
• The Columbus Catfish have been sold and plan to relocate to Bolling Green, Kentucky for the 2009 season. [Ledger-Enquirer]
• Baseball Analysts continues their breakdown of the best baseball players by age. In the age 23 group, BJ Upton comes in at #6, while both Evan Longoria and David Price come in at #5 and #12 respectively. [Baseball Analysts]
• The Ledger ranks the DHs. The Rays’ three-headed monster of Rocco Baldelli, Cliff Floyd and Jonny Gomes is ranked 7th. [The Ledger]
• My Baseball Bias previews the Rays’ Spring Training. [My Baseball Bias]
• Devil Rays Locker gives the Rays front office a B+ for this off-season’s moves. [Devil Rays Locker]

[THE HANGOVER] The Rays Add Trever Miller And Eric Hinske To The Mix

Tampa Bay Rays (7 days until pitchers and catchers report)
The Rays signed a pair of players yesterday. Relief pitcher Trever Miller was signed to a one year contract that will pay him $1.6 million this season with a $2 million team option in 2009. Miller previously pitched for the Rays in 2004 and 2005. As a left-handed relief pitcher, Miller fills the last remaining hole in the Rays 2008 opening day roster. With five of the seven bullpen spots now spoken for (Troy Percival, Al Reyes, Dan Wheeler, Gary Glover and Miller) that leaves two jobs up for grabs. One of those spots (long reliever) will be filled by one of the starting pitchers that does not make the rotation (likely Jason Hammel). The final spot is likely to be a spring training battle between Juan Salas, Scott Dohmann and Grant Balfour.

The Rays also brought in former rookie of the year, Eric Hinske on a minor league contract. He will make $800,000 if he makes the team. Hinske was signed despite news that domestic violence charges against Willy Aybar have been dropped in the Dominican Republic. Hinske is being brought in as insurance in case Aybar is not fit to be either the starting third baseman or part of a platoon with Joel Guzman. Hinske appeared in 84 games for the Red Sox last year playing first base, left field and right field, hitting .204-6-21. Hinske could also conceivably become part of the right field rotation, as the team has made it clear that they prefer Cliff Floyd be the team’s DH and Rocco Baldelli may be limited to start the season.

While he have heard rumblings that the Hinske deal is similar to the situation in which the Rays brought in Carlos Pena last year, everybody needs to temper their excitement. The Rays also brought in Hee Seop Choi last year and now he is out of baseball. Hinske has not hit more than 15 home runs in a season since his rookie year of 2002. That includes four seasons in which he has appeared in more than 100 games. Pena had shown that he could at least hit for power when he was given regular playing time, with 27 dingers in 2004 and 18 home runs in half a season in 2005. In short, we would guess that he and Joel Guzman have an equal shot at the last roster spot.

Finally, it is not too much of a stretch to assume that the trade for Aybar and the signing of Hinske suggest that the Rays have decided to keep Evan Longoria in the minor leagues to start the 2008 season.

Miller’s contract brings the Rays payroll above $43 million.

Miller reunited with Rays [DevilRays.com]
Rays Sign Hinske [MLB Trade Rumors]

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• We are not sure if the title “The Eric Hinske Era Ends” is a reflection of his time in Boston ending or his time with the Rays beginning…or both. [Surviving Grady]
• The Rays apparently tried to sign Dallas McPherson, prior to trading for Willy Aybar. [Sun-Sentinel]
• How many other teams have a GM that is so dedicated that he will appear on a blog radio show that has about 20 listeners? Andrew Friedman will be a guest on “Baseball Talk” on BlogTalkRadio this Sunday at 11:00 AM. [BlogTalkRadio]
• The domestic violence charges against Willy Aybar have been dropped. [TampaBay.com]
• Bill Chastain continues his “Around the Horn” series in which he examines each of the Rays’ “positions”. This week it is the bullpen. [DevilRays.com]
• Sox1Fan takes a look at the Rays top 10 prospects. [Sox1Fan]
• Opponents of the Rays proposed stadium are expected to make an appearance at this morning’s St. Pete city council meeting. The protesters want to see the site of Al Lang Field turned into a park. [TBO]
• The Bleacher Report says there is a lot to be optimistic about with the Rays this year. [Bleacher Report]
• Mets fans can take solace in the fact they finally got back the pitcher they gave up for Victor Zambrano. Wait? You mean it wasn’t Jose Diaz you wanted back? [Mets Fever]

[PROJECTING STATS] Right Field and DH To Be Much Improved In 2008

Bill Chastain has his latest installment of “Around the Horn” in which he previews the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays “positions”. This time it is the outfielders. The most telling statement in the piece is a quote from Joe Maddon in which he states that he would prefer to not use Cliff Floyd in right field very often.

“If Rocco is well, that really relieves a lot of outfield pressure,” Maddon said. “That defines that. Rocco backs up in left, Rocco backs up in center, Rocco DHs, then you feel comfortable with Gomes, because you don’t want to put Cliff out there too often, from what I understand. It just doesn’t sound like the wise thing to do [based on his injury history].”

So let’s say that Gomes and Rocco start every game against a left-handed pitcher, and Floyd starts every game versus a right-handed pitcher, with Gomes and Rocco splitting time against right-handers. In 2007 the Devil Rays played 46 games in which the opposing team’s starting pitcher was left-handed, and 116 games versus right-handed pitchers. If all three players remain healthy all season (I know, I know…just appease me for a second) this suggests that the triumvirate will make the following number of starts in 2008…

Player	vRHP	vLHP	TOTAL
Rocco Baldelli	58	46	104
Cliff Floyd	116	0	116
Jonny Gomes	58	46	104

Of course that can (and probably will) be affected by various leg ailments during the season, but the benefit of this situation is that, in theory, none of the players would have to play in the field for more than approximately 60 games, slightly more for Baldelli and/or Gomes if Maddon does limit Floyd to DH duties.

Just prior to the Cliff Floyd signing, we projected what that would mean for the Rays’ right field production in 2008. In that assessment we excluded Baldelli. Now let’s project all three players stats, based on their averages from the past three seasons. In the case of Floyd we will use his averages versus right-handed pitchers and for Baldelli and Gomes we will weight the averages based on the expected number of starts versus lefties and righties.

Player	BA	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	OPS
Rocco Baldelli	.270	17	59	.317	.484	.801
Cliff Floyd	.281	20	67	.368	.472	.840
Jonny Gomes	.258	21	57	.353	.491	.844

What is interesting about splitting the at bats up in this manner is how similar the stat lines are for all three players. Outside of Baldelli’s OBP, the numbers are nearly identical. When we originally started playing with these numbers, we assumed that in the long run, we could see Baldelli stealing at bats from Gomes, but the numbers show that Gomes would actually post slightly better numbers than the other two.

In the end it appears as though we can expect approximately 58 home runs, 183 RBI and a .829 OPS from two positions. In 2007 Devil Rays’ right fielders and DHs did not fair so well…

Position	BA	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	OPS
DH (2007)	.241	16	63	.329	.378	.707
RF (2007)	.281	17	95	.314	.421	.736
RF/DH (2007)	.262	33	158	.321	.400	.721
RF/DH (2008 Proj.)	.270	58	183	.347	.482	.829

This is not a knock on Delmon Young. We fully expect that Young would have improved his stat line in 2008 had he been manning right field for the Rays. Rather we are just trying to guestimate the level of improvement that the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays RF/DH will have over the 2007 Tampa Bay Devil Rays RF/DH. And if the players remain healthy and perform to their norms, the improvement will be significant.

Or more likely Baldelli will pull a hamstring while sleeping and will miss most of the season. Yeah. Nevermind.

Around the Horn: Outfielders [DevilRays.com]

[CLIFF FLOYD] Rays And Cliff Floyd Agree On One-Year Deal

[Ed. note (4:29pm): Eduardo Encina is reporting that the contract has not been finalized]

Yahoo! Sports (are we the only ones that loathe the exclamation point?) is reporting that the Rays have signed Cliff Floyd to a 1-year contract with a team option in 2009. Floyd will make a base salary of $2.75 million with the opportunity to earn an additional $2 million in incentives.

We already wrote at length about what adding Floyd to the lineup would mean in terms of run production. As for the 25-man roster, Floyd fills multiple needs. He is the left-handed bat and part-time right fielder and DH the team was seeking. In addition, he will be able to spell Carlos Pena at first base whenever the latter needs a day off.

On the offensive side of the ball, there is now one less opening for the 2008. The team is still in the market for a veteran back-up catcher to fill one of the bench spots (could the Rays bring back Josh Paul in 2008?). Assuming that Ben Zobrist is the back up middle infielder, that leaves one bench spot that is wide-open. At this point, we give the edge to Joel Guzman because of his glove-work and defensive flexibility.

The signing of Floyd also raises the projected payroll to over $40 million. This is a jump up from what most thought would be the opening day payroll based on comments from the team that the payroll would raise approximately 20%. A $41 million payroll would be a raise of greater than 40% over the 2007 opening day payroll ($28 million).

OF Cliff Floyd agrees to $3 million, 1-year deal with Rays [Yahoo! Sports]
Rays: Floyd not on the dotted line…yet [tampabay.com]

[THE HANGOVER] The Curious Case Of Syd Finch Elliot Johnson

Tampa Bay Rays (62 days until pitchers and catchers report)
Has any prospect in the Rays system fallen farther, faster than Elliot Johnson? Many had Johnson pegged to be the Rays opening day second baseman in 2008 after a strong 2006 campaign in AA Montgomery. While his numbers were not earth-shattering, he did hit .272 with 41 extra-base hits and a .764 OPS. They don’t scream future all-star, but they were more than respectable for a second baseman in a franchise with no obvious second baseman at the major league level and no other second base prospects in the minors.

In 2007, Johnson was promoted to Durham and already on the 40-man roster, he seemed destined for a September call-up, or at least an invitation to the 2008 Spring Training with a shot at being the opening day second baseman. But rather than taking a step forward, he took a large step backwards, to the tune of the fifth worst OPS (.627) in all of AAA baseball. His batting average fell to .207 and he collected only 34 extra-base hits, despite playing in 21 more games than 2006.

Now many have written Johnson off and no longer consider him Johnson a part of the Rays future. In one season he went from cant-miss 2008 starter to candidate to be Designated for Assignment and removed from the 40-man roster. Most likely, both assertions are wrong, and Johnson falls somewhere in between. The best solution for Johnson, the Rays and Rays fans, is to chalk 2007 up to one bad season-long slump and enter 2008 as if it never happened. It is not too late for Johnson to reclaim his semi-elite status, but if his numbers don’t rebound to his 2006 totals, he is destined to be a journeyman minor leaguer.

Worst Minor League OPS’s in 2007 [Recondite Baseball]

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Marc Lancaster is reporting that the deal with Cliff Floyd is not finalized, as had been reported yesterday on ESPN.com. The ESPN.com report stated that Floyd and the Rays had agreed to a 1-year, $3 million deal with up to $2 million in incentives. The Rays may be waiting for Floyd to pass a physical. [TBO]
• The Rays avoided arbitration with Grant Balfour and Gary Glover, by signing both to 1-year contracts yesterday. Glover will make $1.075 million in base salary, that jumps to $1.1 million with 65 appearances (He made 67 appearances in 2007). Balfour will make $500,000 if he is on the 25-man roster, $150,000 if he is in the minors. We originally thought that Balfour was out of options and could refuse an assignment to the minors. However, if he was not on the Reds 40-man roster in 2006 (spent entirely in the minors), he may have an option left. [Yahoo! Sports]
• The 40-man roster and payroll projections have been updated in the side-panel to reflect the new contracts.

[THE HANGOVER] Tampa Bay Rays Have Already Improved By 12 Games Over 2007

Tampa Bay Rays (66-96)

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Here is an interesting mathematical projection of the Rays 2008 season. Just based on the upgrade in the rotation with the addition of Matt Garza and the upgrade in defense with the addition of Jason Bartlett, the Rays will give up 121 fewer runs in 2008. That translates to 12 more wins (78-84). [Yahoo! Sports]
• Today is the Rule 5 draft, and it looks like the Rays will sell their #1 pick to the Padres. [Baseball America]
• It comes as no surprise…Scott Boras does not see Carlos Pena signing a long-term deal this off-season. Most likely the two sides will submit arbitration numbers, and settle on a 1-year deal somewhere in between. In our 40-man roster and payroll projections, we predict that number to be close to $5 million. [TBO]
• The New York Daily News is reporting that the Rays are looking at Cliff Floyd to be the part-time right fielder and left handed bat that they are seeking. [New York Daily News]
• The Rays were named “Topps Organization of the Year”. The award is based on a point system in which the organization earns points anytime a minor leaguer or rookie receives an a Topps Award during the season (ie. Named to the Topps Rookie team, Player of the Month, etc.) [The Biz of Baseball]

The Rays’ individual winners were: John Jaso (August Player of the Month / Class AA All-Star – Southern Lg.); Desmond Jennings (June POM – South Atlantic Lg.); Evan Longoria (May POM / Class AA All-Star – Southern Lg.); Maiko Loyola (Class A Rookie All Star – NY/Penn Lg.); Chris Mason (Class AA All Star – Southern Lg.); Mike McCormick (Class A Rookie All-Star – NY/Penn Lg.); Fernando Perez (Class AA All-Star – Southern Lg.); Jason Ragan (Class A Rookie All-Star – NY/Penn Lg.); Justin Ruggiano (August POM / Class AAA All-Star – International Lg.); Emeel Salem (Class A Rookie All-Star – NY/Penn Lg.); Jae Seo (July POM – International Lg.); Dale Thayer (Class AA All-Star – Southern Lg.) and Delmon Young (Rookie All-Star – MLB).

• Jorge Cantu has been released by the Cincinnati Reds. [Hot Foot]
• Scott Kazmir and Rocco Baldelli traded to the Mets? Fear not, this website is a fake. [FAKE MLB]
• The Tampa Bay Rays and Montgomery Biscuits will begin discussions to extend their relationship past the 2008 season. [Talk Alabama]