[THE HANGOVER] James Houser Added To 40-Man Roster Despite Ongoing Suspension

Devil Rays
Since the we embarked on our Thanksgiving shenanigans, the Rays made several changes to the 40-man roster.

Dropped from the 40-man roster

• Chris Snelling (traded to Phillies)
• Jon Switzer (DFA’d)
• Brian Stokes (DFA’d)

Added to 40-man roster

• John Jaso, C
• Jason Pridie, OF
• Fernando Perez, OF
• James Houser, SP

The only real surprise of the group is James Houser. Certainly any team would take all necessary precautions to protect a big left hander that is a major league prospect. This is especially true when a left handed pitcher is a common selection in the rule 5 draft because it is easy to hide a young inexperienced pitcher in the bullpen. However, James Houser is not any left hander.

On August 17 of this past season, Houser tested positive for a performance enhancing drug and was suspended for 50 games. Houser missed the final 17 games of the regular season for the Montgomery Biscuits. As a result, he will be forced to sit out for the first 33 games of the 2008 season.

One could argue that Houser would have been more attractive in the Rule 5 Draft since he would not take a roster spot for the first month of the season. However, once the suspension was lifted, his new team would have to make a roster spot for a young pitcher that had been out of action for nearly 9 months and with no experience above AA.

In the end Rays management decided the risk of losing a young left handed starter was too great and decided to protect Houser on the 40-man roster at the risk of losing another player that may be more likely to be taken. At the top of that list are two of Houser’s Montgomery teammates, Nick DeBarr and Dale Thayer. DeBarr was a Rule 5 selection of the Red Sox in 2007, but was returned to the Rays at the end of Spring Training. Thayer, the Biscuits closer, holds the Southern League record for saves in a season. Both players fit the ideal Rule 5 selection…A mid-level pitching prospect that has yet to live up to their potential, that a team can take a flyer on and hope for the best. If the player works out, their new team has an extra arm in the bullpen and only had to give up the drafting fee of $50,000.

Rays tweak roster to hang onto prospects [tampabay.com]
Down On The Farm: James Houser Suspended 50 Games [Rays Index]

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• With the changes that have been made to the 40-man roster, our 40-man roster and 25-man roster projections have been updated in the sidebar. One change we have not made yet is the 5th spot in the rotation. A very strong argument can be made for the team giving the spot to Jeff Niemann without any further time at AAA and moving Jason Hammel to the bullpen to be the long reliever and spot starter.
• A report came down that Carlos Pena turned down a 3 year/$30 million offer from the Rays. Pena’s response when asked was that the report was that the report was “a straight lie”. He also laughed when breaking the news to his wife, which suggests that Pena would not have turned down such an offer. In our 40-man roster projections, we have Pena listed with a 2008 salary of $5 million. This is assuming that Pena and the Rays settle on a 1-year deal to avoid arbitration. Our feeling is that the Rays would not offer more than $8 million per year on a multi-year deal. [tampabay.com]
• Rays of Light is up to #8 of their list of off-season ideas. This one is a no-brainer…”Sign Scott Kazmir to a longterm contract”. However, we disagree with the contention that the Rays should be tossing around numbers such as 6-years and more than $70 million. While $12-13 million per season might be the price for Kid K in free agency, there is no need to give him that money in his arbitration years, nor is there any reason to give him that type of money for his free agency years, three years before he reaches them. The best comparison could be Jeff Francis of the Rockies, another left hander, who signed an extension in 2007 (prior to his third season), that covered all three of his arbitration years and his first free agency season. His arbitration years were bought out at an average of $4.25 million and his first free agency year will cost the Rockies $7 million. Add a year of inflation plus consider the talent level of Kazmir and a comparable contract would fall in the range of a $6 million average for his arbitration years and $10 million for his first free agency season or a total of $28 million over 4 years. [Rays of Light]
• Another trade rumor that refuses to die: Delmon Young to the Twins for Matt Garza. For those that are not familiar, Garza was the Twinkies first round pick in 2005 (25th overall). He is a 24 year old, big (6-4, 205) righty that split time between AAA and Minneapolis in 2007 going 5-7 with a 3.69 ERA and a 67:32 strikeout to walk ratio in 83 innings. In the minors, he was consistently around 10 K’s per 9 and less than 2.5 walks per 9 innings. [TwinCities.com]
• Like every other team that needs an outfielder, the Rangers have inquired about Rocco Baldelli and his legs. [MLB]
• John Herbert has written a column critical of the Rays plan to invest $150 million in a new stadium along the St. Pete waterfront. His two biggest gripes are 1) The Rays are willing to invest $150 million in a stadium but will not invest in the product that will play in the stadium, and 2) he believes that there will not be any parking available in the new location and all fans attending the game will be subject to parking tickets from meter maids running around in modified golf carts. [Hernando Today]
• DRays Bay warns that JK Ryu’s performance with the Korean national team may cost him a spot on the Rays’ 40-man roster. We are not sure how much weight the performance will have, but we have Ryu on the roster bubble, so it can’t help. [DRays Bay]

[THE HANGOVER] Evan Longoria And Justin Ruggiano Key Players In Team USA World Cup Title

Team USA 6, Cuba 3.
Team USA won all three games over the weekend including a 6-3 victory over Cuba on Sunday in the final to win the 2007 World Cup. Both Evan Longoria and Justin Ruggiano contributed in the final, with Longoria going 2-5 with 2 runs scored and Ruggiano had 3 hits in 4 at bats with an RBI single and a run scored. Ruggiano added a stolen base.

Team USA finished 9-1 in the tournament. Longoria was 11-38 (.289), with 3 doubles, a triple, a home run and 5 RBI. Ruggiano was 10-30 (.333) and 8 RBI. He tied Andy LaRoche with a team best 3 home runs.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Can we please ease up on the talk about Barry Bonds playing for the Rays? Let’s say for a moment that the Rays could sign Bonds for a reasonably cheap price…and let’s say for a moment that at 44 years old he can still hit 30 home runs and post a .450 OBP…and let’s say he does not get suspended or spend any time in jail…there is still ZERO chance the Rays will sign Bonds. Yes, he might still be effective and yes he would help increase attendance, but if there is one thing we can all agree on about the Tampa Bay Rays front office…it is that they are very image conscious. This is a team that just became the first team since the Houston Colt .45s to change their name without moving because some people react “negatively” to the term “devil”. And some people still think that it is possible for the Rays to sign a player that is A) a cheater; B) under indictment for perjury; C) universally hated by baseball fans. Let us put it this way. The Rays would not sign Barry Bonds even if he came to the Rays with a blank contract ala Andre Dawson to the Cubs in 1987. [DRays Bay]
• We still think the Rays hope that Juan Salas steps up and claims the closer role in the near future, but TBSF says that the closer-in-waiting might be Calvin Medlock. [Tampa Bay Sports Fanatic]
• The St. Pete Times has generated an artists rendering of what the Tampa Bay Rays proposed stadium might look like. [TampaBay.com]
• Tampa Bay’s 10 obtained documents that detailed discussion the Rays have had with the city of St. Pete in regards to the proposed new stadium on the site of Al Lang Field. They show that the city has (not surprisingly) expressed concerns over the financing of the new stadium. [TampaBays10]

While the Rays paint a rosy picture about moving from Tropicana Field to Al Lang stadium in downtown, the city says there are many uncertainties including the recent Florida Supreme Court decision about using what’s called tax increment funding to finance the facility.

St. Petersburg is also worried about the uncertainty of the statewide tax referendum that could reduce the available tax dollars to the city as well as the need to maximize retail space at the current Tropicana site.

Tthere is uncertainty about traffic circulation, parking and other impacts at the new downtown site. The city is also concerned about financial terms that will be acceptable to everyone.

• The Tampa Bay Rays believe that a new stadium could generate $1 billion in new revenue for the city of St. Pete, along with 2,500 new permanent jobs and 14,000 temporary jobs. [MLB News Blog]
• The Rays sent new personalized jerseys to several legislators, but claim they were not intended to sway their vote on a stadium subsidy. [tampabay.com]

“It’s the $60-million jersey,” joked Sen. Mike Fasano, R-New Port Richey, who got one in the mail Friday.

• Joe Maddon thinks that several voters did not vote for Delmon Young on their Rookie of the Year ballots because of his reputation and personal prejudice. Young finished second in the voting and received three first place votes, but eight voters did not include Young in their top 3. [tampabay.com]

“It’s really disturbing,” Maddon said Friday. “I can see him not winning the award, but leaving him off eight ballots is just a sign of personal prejudice.”

• Of course, it may have been because Delmon Young posted the lowest OPS (.724) for any right fielder in baseball in 2007. [Recondite Baseball]

[THE HANGOVER] There Are No Carl Crawford Rumors To Deny

Team USA 4, South Africa 2.
Evan Longoria went 1-4 with a triple and Justin Ruggiano went 0-4 as Team USA moved to 5-1 and clinched a spot in the World Cup quarterfinals. They have one final game in the preliminary round versus Taipei with the quarterfinals set to played on Friday with the opponent yet to be determined. Longoria was the team’s DH while Andy LaRoche played third base.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Baseball Musings took a look at the “Probabilistic Model of Range” for centerfielders in 2007 and the Devil Rays centerfielders finished next to last, ahead of only the Brewers. The number must be taken with a grain of salt. When we look at Range Factor, BJ Upton was above the league average of 2.71 with a 2.91. On the other hand, Elijah Dukes and Delmon Young, who had the next two most innings played in center field were both well below the league average with a 2.30, which likely brought the Rays overall Range value down. Rocco Baldelli only played 20 games in center, but came in with a 3.61 range factor. [Baseball Musings]
• Four of the 12 players named to the Topps Double-A All-Star team are Devil Rays farmhands. The list includes Evan Longoria, John Jaso, Chris Mason and Dale Thayer. [The Raw Feed]
• More hardware for Carlos Pena. This time it is the fictional 2007 Andre Dawson Award, presented to the best player on a last place team. No word on what exactly the trophy looks like, but we are guessing it is a hawk with bad knees. Pena is the second Devil Ray to win the award. Fred McGriff won the award in 1999. [Home Run Derby]
• The Cubs are trying to put together a package to land Carl Crawford. No word on whether or not discussions have already occurred. [Herald-News]
• According to team officials, there are no deals being worked on that involve Carl Crawford. The denial is interesting and possibly unnecessary as we haven’t actually heard any rumors involving CC. All we have seen and read is that other teams are targeting CC. But who wouldn’t want CC on their team? [Bradenton Herald]
• Al Reyes and Greg Norton both filed for free agency. The Rays still have until tomorrow to pick up options on both players. Reyes’ option will be picked up. Norton is likely to be granted free agency. [TBO]
• The Rays are one of 10 teams interested in signing Troy Percival. While Marc Lancaster sites Percival’s close relationship with Joe Maddon as a reason the Rays may have an edge, it didn’t seem to help last year when he ultimately signed with the Cardinals, so we are not sure why it would help this time around, except to add another team to the bidding process and ultimately raise the price. [TBO]
• In the end, we were a little high with the target dollar amount, but as we predicted, the Yankees went to four years on their contract offer to Jorge Posada and the catcher decided to not even test the free agent waters. The Yankees re-signed Posada for 4 years and $52.4 million. The Yankees will have to pay the devil on the back end of the deal, but that is the advantage they have. They will be able to swallow that cost when Posada is a 40-year old part-time DH. The Rays are in no financial position to assume such a cost. [TBO]
• Redeveloping Tropicana Field and the land on which it rests is key to the Rays moving to the St. Pete Waterfront in 2012. According to Aaron Sharockman this will not be a problem as land developers are already drooling over the prospect of building a residential and office space development on the 70 acre lot that is close to the interstate. [St. Pete Times]

Transforming the Tropicana site is “the kind of thing you dream about,” said Craig Sher, the chief executive of the Sembler Co., which developed BayWalk in St. Petersburg and Centro Ybor in Tampa.

“There’s a real potential to build a really neat mixed-use project, residential and office,” Sher said. “There’s just not a lot of land left in St. Pete. Any time you get a critical mass of land, you can get something spectacular. Hopefully, we’d be on somebody’s list of people to call.”

• Now that the Devil Rays have changed their name to “Rays”, has the team automatically eliminated itself as a potential destination for a small segment of players? Would Ray Durham have ever signed with the Tampa Bay Rays? Not likely. [Home Run Derby]

AL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR Dustin Pedrioa Supporter Makes Case For Delmon Young

[Update: Delmon Young has finished second in the voting to Dustin Pedroia. Young received three first place votes out of 28]

Today, the winners of the Rookie of the Year awards for each league will be announced. The general belief is that Dustin Pedroia of the Boston Red Sox will take home the award with Delmon Young of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays finishing second. Two websites challenged each other to come up with 5 reasons why their candidate should win the award.

The Serious Tip presents “5 reasons why Delmon Young should win Rookie of the Year“.

In summary…

1. Consistency
2. Clutch Hitting
3. Versatility
4. Fielding Prowess
5. Overexposure

We have to take issue with #3 “Versatility” and #4 “Fielding Prowess”. One of the Top 5 arms in baseball? Probably. Gold Glove-caliber? No way. For those that have seen Young play on a regular basis, know that he often looks uncomfortable in right field, plays wayyyyy too deep (a sign that a player has trouble going back on balls) and takes terrible angles on balls all the time. We are not saying he will never be a good defensive outfielder. He just is not one yet. And while he was passable as a center fielder, he spent the entire time playing the position from the restaurant on the other side of the center field wall and complaining about the move to the press.

One More Dying Quail rebuts with “Five Reasons Why Dustin Pedroia Should Be Rookie Of The Year“. We have long thought that Pedroia should and would win the award. However, after reading the argument at OMDQ, we are now thinking that maybe Delmon Young does deserve the award.

To summarize the argument…

1. David Eckstein is also scrappy and never won the award
2. Pedroia made a great defensive play on Sept. 1
3. He sucked for the first month and never strikes out
4. He is as tough as Raul Rodarte of the Mexican League
5. The author is afraid of his wife

That is one hell of an argument. Let’s see if we can come up with some better reasoning one way or the other…

1. Offense (traditional stats): Delmon Young hit .288-13-93 while appearing in 162 games. Dustin Pedroia hit .317-8-50 in 139 games. Delmon loses points for not understanding the rules of baseball and knowing that he does not have to swing at every single god damned pitch. If Delmon Young would have shown any patience this season he could have hit .320. EDGE: Eck’s Clone Pedroia
2. Offense (newage stats): Pedroia had a VORP of 35.9 compared to 5.7 for Young (not a typo). Pedroia had an OPS of .822 compared to .724 for Young. Pedroia had an EqA of .276 while Young’s EqA was only .251. We are pretty sure that Pedroia got a 30 point boost in his VORP for being little and scrappy. EDGE: The Eck-esque Pedroia
3. Clutchiness: In close and late situations, Pedroia hit .299-2-2 in 67 at bats with a .780 OPS. Young was .264-3-13 with an OPS of .723. Of course Young had a huge walk-off home run in the Disney series against the Rangers. Young also seem to play the game with a chip on his shoulder and strong desire to be known, which means his concentration level seems to rise to a new level when it matters most. EDGE: Delmonator
4. Defense: Pedroia gets a slight nod right off the bat because he played second base on a team in a pennant-race, but lets look at the numbers. Pedroia had a Range Factor of 4.88, just below the league average of 4.98. Young had a RF of 2.13, higher than the league average for RF of 2.08. This tells us that Young’s speed helped him overcome his problems with the glove and may not have been as bad as we previously thought. On the other hand, Young was Dishin’ Out Delmon’s all season long to the tune of 16 outfield assists. Pedrioa did not have a single outfield assist! BUT…Pedroia looks like David Eckstein. EDGE: Split
5. Cockiness: We can only base this on 2007 so Delmon Young does not get credit for throwing a bat at an unpire, however, he does get bonus points for 1) bitching about having to play center field; 2) believing every pitch is his pitch; and 3) thinking that Joe Maddon singled him out for not hustling on the penultimate game of the season. Pedroia gets bonus points for being Major League Baseball’s poster-child for the Napolean Complex. EDGE: Delmonator

In the end, it was closer than we thought it would be, but the numbers don’t lie. VORP And EqA give Pedroia a huge edge and he did it all season long playing middle infield for a team in a pennant race under the scrutiny of the unforgiving Boston fans and the unforgiving Boston media.

We love Delmon Young and he will have the better career when all is said and done. But for 2007? The AL Rookie of the Year is Dustin Pedroia.

5 reasons why Delmon Young should win Rookie of the Year [The Serious Tip]
5 reasons why Dustin Pedroia should be Rookie of the Year[One More Dying Quail]

THE HANGOVER Peter Gammons Predicts 30+ Home Runs For Evan Longoria In 2008

Team USA 5, Japan 1.
Evan Longoria had a 2-run double in the 8th that put the game out of reach. He finished 1-4. Justin Ruggiano also went 1-4.

Team USA 12, Spain 2.
Evan Longoria went 2-4 and hit his second home run of the World Cup, a 2-run shot. Justin Ruggiano went 1-3.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Hidden behind the password-wall of ESPN Insider is the latest Peter Gamons article. In the article he has high praise for Evan Longoria. [ESPN]

Three different baseball people insisted that Tampa Bay rookie third baseman Evan Longoria will hit more than 30 homers next year based on what they saw in the Arizona Fall League.

• Carlos Pena took home some more offseason hardware. This time it is the AL Silver Slugger award for being the top hitting first baseman in the AL. [Bottom 9]
• The Devil Rays have contacted free agent catcher Michael Barrett. This just in…The Rays would like to have a veteran catcher on the roster, which means they will be contacting all available veteran free agent catchers. [Fox Sports]
• The Brewers are trying to acquire Carl Crawford looking at the left fielder as the player that can put them over the top. Not surprisingly, the Rays are not interested in anything the Brew Crew is offering so they are trying to get a third team involved. [Mykenk’s Blog]
  
• Rays of Light has started a 9-part series entitled “Offseason Ideas”. They have #1 and #2 up, addressing whether or not to trade Rocco Baldelli, and signing Cesar Izturis to play shortstop in 2008. [Rays of Light]
• Delmon Young should have won a Gold Glove? One blogger thinks so. Young did not deserve a gold glove, even if they got rid of the ridiculous practice in which the outfield gold gloves are given to three outfielders regardless of outfield position, which often leads to three center fielders taking home the award. Young has one of the best arms in baseball, but his defense is below average at best. He plays too deep, takes bad angles and often looks uncomfortable. [Thunder Matt’s Saloon]
• If I ever go into politics, I am hiring David Chalk as my campaign manager. [Bugs & Cranks]
• And remember…if you are not happy about the Rays changing their name and would like to see sites such as RI or Bugs & Cranks continue using the moniker “Devil Rays”, go to THIS POST and leave a comment saying so.[Bugs & Cranks]

THE HANGOVER Evan Longoria Goes Deep For Team USA

Team USA 7, Panama 0.
Evan Longoria capped the scoring for Team USA with a 2-run home run in the 7th inning. It was the first home run of the tournament for Team USA. Longoria finished 2-3 with those 2 ribbies.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Most of the free agent shortstops are already off the board, so it looks like the Rays will attempt to address the void in the middle infield through a trade. [TBO]
• Why do the Rays need a shortstop? According to “The Probabilistic Model of Range” for shortstops in 2007, the Rays had the third worst shortstop defense in baseball. Individually, Brendan Harris and Josh Wilson ranked as the 3rd and 4th worst defensive shortstops in 2007 (out of 39). [Baseball Musings]
• Any shortstop the Rays acquire may only be a one-year stopgap as Reid Brignac will most likely begin the season at AAA Durham. Despite what appeared to be poor offensive numbers on the surface (compared to 2006), The Hardball Times recognizes Brignac as one of the most improved hitters in the minor leagues in 2007. [The Hardball Times]

Brignac experienced a breakout season at the hitter-friendly California League last year, and his plate approach continued to improve as he posted career-best walk rates and strikeout rates in the Southern League this year. His traditional statistics were underwhelming in 2007 as he only hit .260 in a full season with the Montgomery Biscuits. The components of that performance are highly encouraging, however.

• The Twins may not be interested in Rocco Baldelli. According to the Star-Tribune they have targeted BJ Upton and Delmon Young and are willing to part with Matt Garza. If the Twins stand firm, don’t look for a deal to be made. [Star-Tribune]
• The Cubs have targeted Carl Crawford. [Daily-Herald]
• Project Prospect ranks the top 5 players in the Rays farm system. [Project Prospect]

The Devil Rays farm system has become the envy of baseball. They had four players who ranked in the Top 15 of our Top 25 prospect list last week. They have a top Rookie of the Year candidate in the big leagues right now, in Delmon Young. And they are currently in line to be awarded the No. 1 overall Draft pick for the second year in a row. Tampa Bay really only has one path that it can take in order to compete with the big spenders in its division. And it’s taking it.

• Sean McAdam of ESPN.com takes a look at the Rays off-season, and the holes they look to fill. [ESPN]

THE HANGOVER Andrew Friedman Talking With Mets And Twins

Scottsdale 1, Phoenix 0.
Reid Brignac went 0-4 and is now 12-84 (.143), and he is 1 for his last 31. Evan Meek pitched 2 perfect innings to pick up the win.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• The “Cork Board” on the right side of the page has been updated to reflect minor league free agency.
• Andrew Friedman met with Twins GM Bill Smith yesterday at the GM meetings in Orlando. The Twins have young pitching and are in search of a young slugger. When asked if Delmon Young was discussed, the Minneapolis Star-Tribune was told they were “on the right track”. [Star-Tribune]
• Somebody with the Rays (Andrew Friedman?) met with somebody from the Mets (Omar Minaya?) yesterday at the GM meetings in Orlando. [New York Post]
• Andrew Friedman reiterated what should already be known by all…the Rays do not have anybody on their roster that is untouchable. What good does it do a franchise to say somebody is “untouchable”? If the Yankees offered Phillip Hughes and Joba Chamberlain for Scott Kazmir or the Giants offered Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, would the Rays say ‘no’ just because Kid K was untouchable? Not likely. [tampabay.com]

“We’re not good enough as of (today) to say that anyone is untouchable,” Friedman said. “Obviously, there are players that we’re much less likely to talk about, and it would be much harder for us to deal. That being said, we have to listen to anything and everything. And if there is a team that wants Player X and is offering, in our opinion, a good deal more than Player X, we can’t be afraid to pull the trigger.”

• He doesn’t even have a roster spot yet, but The Sporting News is darn near guaranteeing that Evan Longoria will win AL Rookie of the Year. [The Sporting News]
• Major League Baseball and the Toronto Blue Jays are open to the idea of an April series in Orlando at the oxymoronically named “Champion Field” with the Rays. [tampabay.com]

THE HANGOVER We Know People Are Desparate For Rumors, But This Is Getting Redunculous

Devil Rays (66-96)

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• The general manager’s meetings are under way in Orlando. [TBO]
• DRaysBay now has more interviews with David Price than Price has pitches thrown as a professional…He bought a new car. [DRaysBay]
• Another trade rumor that has blown up after one writer was just speculating. Tim Lincecum for Delmon Young. Once again, Young’s name got mixed up in this rumor because one blogger was trying to find a match for the Giants. The Rays would make this move in a heartbeat, which means it won’t happen. Nothing to look at here. Keep moving folks…keep moving. [Minor League Ball]
• How awesome was Carlos Pena in 2007? In addition to Comeback Player of the Year, he now can add Latin American Idol winner. Scott Boras will certainly use this to add a few million to Pena’s asking price in the negotiations for a long-term deal. [Fernando’s Blog]
• Future Considerations is counting down their top 30 Rays prospects. They are currently on #25, Elliot Johnson. [Future Considerations]
  

RAYS GET NO RESPECT Bill James Is Fixin’ On Gettin’ A Delmon

A short while ago we took exception when Bill James’ list of the top 25 major leaguers under the age of 30. While both Scott Kazmir (#6) and James Shields (#20) made the list, we were surprised that BJ Upton, Carl Crawford and Delmon Young were all left off the list. Well, it turns out that now the list is 50 names long and all three of the young stud hitters are in the second 25.

Upton just misses the top 25, coming in at #27, while Young (41) and Crawford (43) both fall closer tot he bottom. We still believe that Upton and Crawford should be in the top 25 and one can definitely make a case for Young. Upton may have been penalized for missing a month of the season. Had he gone 30-30 at the age of 22, it is hard to imagine that Upton would not be in the top 25.

As for Crawford, he was most likely penalized for being old. Even though the list is for players “under 30”, there is a strong bias towards players that are in their early 20s who have more years left until age 33. Still, CC is one of the most exciting players in the game today and clearly one of the top offensive threats in baseball regardless of age. And while his power numbers did not develop this past season as we had hoped, once they do, CC may propel himself to the top of everybody’s list.

Young is more of an enigma. Many had hoped for more power and better defense from the 21-year old. We were not surprised by the lack of pop, as he is truly a line-drive hitter. Once he becomes more comfortable at the major league level and if he ever learns to wait for his pitch, we will likely see more elevation from his swing. Still, his arm is as good as anybody. Name another right fielder that can throw out Ichiro trying to advance from first to third on a single. And hitting .290 with 90 ribbies on the Rays at age 21 is pretty darn impressive. A 2008 line of .310-25-110 (not out of the question) and Bill James will be Gettin’ a Delmon if Young is not in the top 25 next season.

Bill James Has Never Heard Of Carl Crawford, Delmon Young and BJ Upton [Rays Index]
Young Talent Inventory [SI.com]

Bill James Has Never Heard Of Carl Crawford, Delmon Young And BJ Upton

In his upcoming book, Bill James lists the top 25 major leaguers under the age of 30. Baseball Digest Daily got a hold of the list, which consists of 13 hitters and 12 pitchers.

To achieve his “Young Talent Inventory,” James first eliminated from the list all players who were 29 years old in 2007 or older, to give a definition to “young talent.” Then he used two widely used statistics—“runs created” for position players and “runs allowed” for pitchers—as the basis for comparison. However, James made several adjustments and then took into account how many years the player has left before he is 33 years old.

So. The first step in constructing a list of the best players under the age of 30 is to eliminate anybody that is 29 years old. Bill James. Baseball Genius.

Scott Kazmir is ranked as the 3rd best pitcher (6th overall), behind Fausto Carmona and Felix Hernandez. James Shields makes the list as the 9th best pitcher (20th overall). What? No Jason Hammel? Kid K’s ranking seems about right, especially as a left hander, but we are not sure we would rank Shields ahead of both CC Sabathia and Brandon Webb, although it is closer than many would think. Shields is a year younger and it would be difficult to argue that he very well could have won 19 games with the Indians or 18 games with the D-Backs.

Noticeably absent from the list of top young hitters are the Devil Rays own Carl Crawford (26), BJ Upton (23) and Delmon Young (22). Do you think the Nationals would hesitate to trade Ryan Zimmerman (#11) for any of those three? Of course not. How about the O’s and Nick Markakis? or the Pads and Adrian Gonzalez? And those are just the obvious players that the Rays young trio are obviously superior to. Arguments could be made for 4-5 others on the list.

We are not sure why CC, Upton and Young were left off the list but we can only imagine what “adjustments” James made to his calculations. Maybe he didn’t want 25% of the list to be Devil Rays. Because clearly, baseball is played on a calculator and having that much talent on one team would lead to 125 wins according to his abacus. And clearly “adjustments” needed to be made to the calculations to explain why the Rays did not win 125 games. It doesn’t matter though. He is Bill James and he is smarter than all of us.

You talent inventory [Baseball Digest Daily]
I Am Bill James and I Am Smarter Than You [On The Show]