[THE HANGOVER] Rays To Watch In Spring Training

Tampa Bay Rays (2 days until pitchers and catchers report)
The Tampa Tribune lists “Five Rays To Watch” in Spring Training. The list includes several obvious names, including Akinori Iwamura, Rocco Baldelli, Edwin Jackson, Dioner Navarro and Trever Miller.

We are not sure Trever Miller needs to be on this list. His role is set and he will be fine. However we would add three more players to the list of players to watch: Jeff Niemann, John Jaso and David Price.

Niemann’s bandwagon is starting to gain some steam. He is 25 and it may be now or never for the big right hander. Now comes word that he is in much better shape this Spring. If the front office was being honest, it is our belief that they would prefer Niemann to step-up and take the last spot in the rotation from Edwin Jackson.

Jaso, on the other hand, has zero chance of making the roster, but 2008 could be a referendum on Navarro’s future with the Rays. He needs to at least maintain the pace, offensively, that he set in the second half of 2007 and he needs to make great strides defensively. Jaso will spend all of 2008 in AAA, but you can be sure the team is going to be watching him closely to see if Navarro’s potential replacement is in-house.This year’s Spring Training could go a long ways to convincing the coaching staff and front office that Jaso deserves at least a platoon position in 2009.

Price made news when he stated that he wants to be in the majors by the beginning of July. Even prior to this statement many outlets speculated that Price could be ready for the majors by the second half of 2008. This seams awfully quick for an organization as patient as the Rays. It seems more likely that Price will spend 2007 at AA, with a possible late-season promotion to AAA. He would then begin the 2009 season at AAA with a June call-up being the most likely scenario. The only way we can see Price in the majors this season is if he is posting Tim Lincecum-type numbers (62.2 ip, 26h, 23bb, 104k, 1.01era) in the minors.

The Rays front office has been typically mum on the subject but they may tip their hand in Spring Training. If the Rays believe there is even a possibility of promoting Price to the bigs in 2008, he will see action in Spring Training games. If they plan on keeping him in the minors the entire season, he will be given a cursory 2 weeks with the parent club and then shipped over to minor league camp for the remainder of Spring Training without ever appearing in a Spring game. This was how Evan Longoria was handled last year.

Five Players To Watch [Tampa Tribune]

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• If you haven’t had a chance to vote in our “Rays Confidence Graph” survey. Please do so now. We will update the results tomorrow. [Rays Index]
• Marc Lancaster asks five questions that the Rays will need to answer in Spring Training. [Tampa Tribune]
• During our “12 Days of Raysmas”, we wished for a no-hitter from Scott Kazmir. Well, The Bill James Handbook lists Kid K as the most likely pitcher in baseball today to throw a no-no, with a 24% chance. And you guys thought we were being too optimistic in the Raysmas posts. Tisk, tisk. [Joe Posnanski]
• Rays Anatomy debates Matt Garza vs. Jon Lester. This is a rare case where we actually know more about the other team’s player than we do about our own. [Rays Anatomy]
• Project Prospect lists Reid Brignac as the top shortstop prospect. [Project Prospect]

The year 2006, however, was much kinder to Brignac, as the 6-foot-3, 180-pounder tabbed a stellar .321/.376/.539 line between High-A and Double-A. While the 2006 campaign may have put him on the map, you shouldn’t be navigating away from Brignac because of his 2007 showing. The St. Amant, La. native’s line drive rate from ’06 stayed true to form in ’07, while his BABIP tanked from .395 to .288. Though he was in the hitter-friendly California League in ’06, there’s still reason to believe that Brignac was a bit unlucky last season. He still holds the skills and power potential to become an above-average shortstop at the Major League level

• Kevin Gengler is up to #14 Glenn Gibson and #13 John Jaso in his prospect countdown. [DRays Bay]
• Baseball Analysts list the top 24 year olds in baseball. Scott Kazmir is ranked #5. [Baseball Analysts]
• As we get closer to the baseball season, the new Rays blogs are starting to roll out fast and furious. The latest is Outs Per Swing, which is a play on what OPS stand for. This brings up a question that DRG and I were debating recently and he may write-up at some point from a more mathematical point-of-view. 383 times in the history of baseball, a player has posted an OPS greater than 1.000. In essence that means a player is earning more than 1 base per plate appearance. So, if a player has an OPS greater than 1.000 shouldn’t the opposition intentionally walk him every time up? That would be an OPS of exactly 1.000. [Outs Per Swing]
• A 2008 Tampa Bay Rays preview. Looks like we the Rays are going to be the chic pick to do well in 2008. [Jim & Bob’s Palatial Baseball Blog]

[ELIJAH DUKES HANGOVER] What They Are Saying In The Blogosphere About The Elijah Dukes Trade

We have to commend Andrew Friedman for sticking to his guns and demanding one of the Nationals’ top pitching prospects for Elijah Dukes. Most of the Nationals’ bloggers seem to think that Glenn Gibson was too much to give up for Dukes, however, we have to admit, it is hard to get too excited. From what we have read, he sounds like a left-handed Andy Sonnanstine, that is still 3-4 years away from being ready for the majors.

What the Washington Nationals bloggers are saying about the trade between the Nationals and the Tampa Bay Rays, in which the Nationals received Elijah Dukes for Glenn Gibson….

Capitol Punishment has a nice in-depth look at Glenn Gibson, the pitcher the Rays received in the Elijah Dukes trade, and examines the trade. [Capitol Punishment]

In a pure talent sense, it’s a solid swap. I’m not especially high on Gibson’s long-term potential, thinking that he’s putting up stats with excellent command of mediocre stuff…But the stathead side of my is superseded by the fanboy side. Any player whose Wikipedia profile needs a separate off-field issues section is one you’ve gotta be careful of. And it’s a player I’m going to take no joy in rooting for.

Nationals Farm Authority thinks the Nats gave up too much for Dukes. [Nationals Farm Authority]

Not what I was expecting. I did not envision them surrendering one of the Vermonsters for Dukes…Gibson is a extremely polished lefty (for someone coming out of high school) and has a major league pedigree (his father pitched in the major leagues). I like Gibson for what he is a soft-tossing lefthander in the mold of Jamie Moyer (I use that as the best case scenario)…It’s a lot to surrender in a deal for a guy with the baggage Dukes has, but from a talent for talent point of view, the Nationals are the winners.

Nats320 credits the acquisition of talent, but they are worried about what Dukes may do. [Nats320]

Is he worth the time and effort? Is this the type of player you wish to represent The Nation’s Capital? Is winning worth far more than questionable character traits? Does being selfish, and self-absorbed, make you a desirable player–no matter what your background, and history has proven?…When Sohna and I attend any game involving Our Washington Nationals, we always hope for a win and the best for Our Players. Never do we expect that any one player may harm another–or that one player, is in fact, dangerous. Elijah Dukes has us worried–because–as his background shows–no matter what the Spin Doctors Say–he is A HAZARD.

We’ve Got Heart is not going to be welcoming Dukes to the Nation’s Capitol. [We’ve Got Heart]

As Nats fans we are now asked to show our loyalty by welcoming this troubled kid with open arms…not a chance.

The title says it all. [Just A Nats Fan]

“An Offseason Fear Come True”

Nats Triple Play also likes the deal less knowing that Washington gave up Gibson. [Nats Triple Play]

Ouch, that’s a little too much to pay

[THE HANGOVER] Elijah Dukes Is The Nationals’ Headache Now

Tampa Bay Rays (66-96)
As we mentioned yesterday, Elijah Dukes was traded to the Nationals and Josh Wilson was placed on waivers and claimed by the Pittsburgh Pirates. Glenn Gibson, who was acquired for Dukes is not a member of the 40-man roster. The moves leave the Rays with only 38 players on their 40-man roster, a fact that won’t go unnoticed if a player such as Dale Thayer or Nick DeBarr is lost to the Rule 5 draft on Thursday.

We are not certain why Wilson was placed on waivers at this time unless another trade or free agent signing is pending. However, it is not surprising that Wilson was the player chosen to be placed on waivers. We suspected that Ben Zobrist had the edge over Wilson for the utility infielder position off the bench. While Zobrist has a slight edge offensively and defensively, his ability to switch-hit was may have been the biggest factor as the Rays are currently without a left handed bat off the bench.

With the latest round of moves, we have updated the “Cork Board“, our “Trade Value Index“, and the 2008 25-man roster projection and 40-man roster/payroll projection in the side panel.

Remember the projections are based only on players currently within the organization. In other words, it is what the roster would like if opening day were today. Obviously there are still changes to be made. For example, we do not see Justin Ruggiano as the starting right fielder, and the Rays would prefer somebody other than Kurt Birkins fill the role of lefty in the ‘pen. The only significant change since the last update is Juan Salas is not on the roster. He still has options (can be sent to the minors) and recent comments by Joe Maddon suggest that Gary Glover is a front-runner to make the team. On the 40-man roster we are assuming that one of the final two roster spots will go to Evan Longoria and the other opening will be filled from outside the organization, so we just left one spot blank.

As for the TVI, the biggest change is obviously the additions of Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett. Also, the TVI suggests that if the Rays have a need to remove anybody from the 40-man roster, the most likely candidates are Kurt Birkins and Grant Balfour.

Elijah Dukes Has Been Traded To The Nationals [Rays Index]
Notes: Wilson Lost on Waivers To Bucs [Devil Rays]

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• One of the biggest misconceptions in baseball is that “Moneyball” and Oakland A’s General Manager Billy Beane is all about loving players with strong OBPs. Not true. “Moneyball” was all about finding players that are undervalued by other teams. At the time “Moneyball” was written, not many teams placed a premium on OBP, and so those were the players targeted by Beane. Since the book was written, most other teams now realize the value of players with high OBPs and hence those players are no longer undervalued. Rays of Light examines this shift and wonders if 5-tool players are the new object of everybody’s affection. [Rays of Light]
• RJ Anderson takes a look at “Economics and Baseball” and how they pertain to trades. [DRays Bay]
• One blog looks at the correlation between market size and revenue sharing in baseball. The Tampa Bay Rays have the 5th smallest market, but have taken in the largest amount of revenue sharing. There are several interesting anomalies. For example, the Blue Jays are middle-of-the-pack for market size (12th), but received the second most revenue sharing funds. [Thoughts, Essays, Etc. Sent Into The Ether]

[ELIJAH DUKES] Elijah Dukes Has Been Traded To The Nationals

[Update 6:22pm] The Rays traded Elijah Dukes for one of the pitchers that they coveted from the Nationals. The player acquired by the Rays is Glenn Gibson. According to earlier reports, Gibson was one of the pitchers that the Nationals were refusing to part with. Gibson, a tall lanky (6’4″ 195) left hander, was a 4th round selection by the Nationals out of high school in the 2006 draft. After only 6 innings of work in 2006, Gibson appeared in 12 games this past season (all starts) for Vermont of the New York-Penn League. He posted a 3.10 ERA and struck out 58 in 58 innings, while walking 15.

FoxSports is reporting that Elijah Dukes has been traded to the Washington Nationals for a minor leaguer. The minor league player has not been identified, but is not believed to be a member of the Nationals’ 40-man roster.

A press conference has been scheduled for 6 pm

In other news, Josh Wilson was placed on waivers and claimed by the Pirates.

We will update this post as more details become available.

Rays trade outfielder Elijah Dukes to Nationals [Yahoo! Sports]
Nats acquire Dukes from Tampa Bay [Fox Sports]
Dukes traded to Nationals [TampaBay.com]