2007 Devil Rays Trade Value Index

Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus and SI.com recently released his list of the 50 Most Valuable Players in baseball. We took Mr. Silver to task for not including Carl Crawford. Let’s just say we aren’t buying Nate a beer anytime soon.

In light of this glaring omission, we thought it would be a good time to update our Tampa Bay Devil Rays Trade Value Index (TVI).

TRADE VALUE INDEX
The TVI ranks every player on the current 40-man roster and the top prospects in the organization. Our goal is to determine which players in the organization are the most valuable to the team. Ultimately, when looking at the rankings, the question should be, if the Rays could only keep one of two players from the organization, which player would the front office choose to keep.

The rankings consider a number factors in addition to talent and good looks, such as potential, age, contract and depth of position in organization. This last factor comes into effect if one player is stuck behind another player with more ability. For example, Fernando Perez would be a little higher due to his exceptional speed and strong OBP, but loses a little value because he has bad hair, and some more value because the team has Rocco Baldelli, Carl Crawford, BJ Upton, Elijah Duke and Delmon Young firmly entrenched on the major league roster and either do, or are capable of playing the outfield. Another factor is team needs. A pitcher may be ranked ahead of a more “talented” fielder because the team has a stronger need for pitching at the major league level. (Please see the original TVI post for further explanation).

Feel free to tell us where we screwed up in the comments.

[Rankings follow the notes]

A couple of notes on the rankings…

• The biggest addition to the list is obviously David Price. Even though he has yet to sign a contract, we don’t foresee that being a problem. When trying to determine where to include Price in the rankings we asked ourselves, “If the Rays did not have the top pick and were allowed to deal draft picks, would the Rays have traded Player X, for the top pick in the draft and a chance to select Price?” The answer was ‘NO’ for BJ Upton, but was a ‘YES’ for Evan Longoria, although we definitely debated the second one. You could probably exchange Longoria and Price and you wouldn’t get much of an argument from us. There is never a sure-thing in the minors, but Longoria is as close as it comes.
• Speaking of BJ Upton…He jumps up into the top 5 for the first time. We tried to temper our excitement for his hot start, knowing that he was not going to finish the season hitting .350. His strike out totals indicated that he would fall back…a lot. However, despite the recent drop in batting average, he has actually cut down on his strikeouts, recently going 12 straight games without a K. And despite his size, he generates tremendous bat speed. Everything he hits just explodes off his bat, which will equate to more hits. Upton is the real-deal. We just need to prepare ourselves for the re-birth of “BJ Upton, major league shortstop”, because it is coming. Akinori Iwamura is going to need a new home as early as next season when Evan Longoria busts down the door that is holding him back.
• Jeff Niemann’s ho-hum start to his season at AAA, as well as the emergence of James Shields and the selection of David Price drops his value from #5 to #8. If he doesn’t start to turn it on soon, he will drop out of the top 10.
• Looking back we were surprised that we had James Shields as highly valued as his #11 spring training ranking. Just goes to show you how scary the pitching situation was before the season began. He had a good start to his major league career, winning his first four starts, but there was no indication that he was going to be as good as he has been this year. The only thing keeping him from overtaking Scott Kazmir for the #1 spot is that Kid K is a lefty and he is two years younger than Shields.
• Rocco Baldelli takes a big hit, dropping from #4 to #9. If this was the Devil Rays Most Fragile Index, he would be the unanimous #1. Until he can show that he can stay healthy for an extended period of time, he won’t be moving up this chart.
• Much has been made about the Rays drafting a big power-lefty in the form of David Price. Of course the Rays already have a power-lefty in the majors (Scott Kazmir). Well the Rays have another big power-lefty in the system. Jacob McGee makes his first appearance in the top 10. When he finally receives a (well-deserved) promotion and if he has a strong start at AA, he could jump into the top 5.
• You would think that Jacob McGee and Wade Davis have been best friends since potty-training. They are always together and mentioned together even more often. Davis obviously does not have quite the same value as McGee as right-hander. Still, #20 is a strong ranking for a single-A right-handed pitcher and a testament to what scouts think about Davis. He might drop a few spots initially, but a switch to “closer-in-training” could bump his value in the long run.
• Edwin Jackson is holding on to his #12 spot…barely…on talent alone.
• Elijah Dukes drops from #10 to #15. It would have been farther, but some teams around the league have expressed some interest in Dukes, so he is sti
  ll considered a valuable commodity.
• Reid Brignac takes one of the biggest falls, dropping from #9 to #16. His batting average is down in the .250s and he is not hitting home runs. On top of that, after a solid defensive showing in 2006, he is back to his best BJ Upton impersonation at shortstop this season. Remember, Brignac’s strong numbers last year came in the very hitter-friendly California League. Yet another reason to brace ourselves for BJ Upton the shortstop.
• Chris Mason has made the biggest leap in 2007, from #48 to #24. It is very difficult to gauge players at single-A. We start to get a sense of talent-levels once they hit AA. Mason has dominated at AA this season and looks to be on the fast-track.
• Josh Butler (#28), Lewis Rollins (#48) and Jeremy Hellickson (#29) are good examples at low-A Columbus. We just don’t know what they are yet. They are dominating low-A, but it is too early to tell how that will translate to higher levels. Rollins is having the best season of the three, but was the lowest draft pick. That indicates to us that the other two have more natural ability. If Rollins can keep it up in Vero Beach and beyond, he will move up the chart quickly.

Down On The Farm: Jeremy Hellickson Trumps Jacob McGee And James Houser

Pawtucket 15, Durham 6. Mitch Talbot is now 0-5 in his last 7 starts after giving up 7 hits, 4 walks and 5 runs (2 earned) in 3 innings. His ERA is now 8.47 on the season, and any hopes of seeing Talbot in the big leagues this season are fading fast. Wes Bankston homered for the Bulls and Jeremy Owens connected on 2 round-trippers. Ben Zobrist was 0-5 and is now 2-14 since his demotion. He might have been hitting better for the Rays.

Montgomery 4, West Tenn 0. Big night for James Houser in his return from the DL. He gave up only 2 hits and 1 walk in 6.1 scoreless innings. He struck out 7. Chris Nowak was 2-3 and drove in 3 runs, while John Jaso was 3-3 to raise his average to .337. Unfortunately Evan Longoria was hit in the elbow in his second at bat and needed to be removed from the game after it began to swell. Longoria has now reached base in 33 consecutive games.

Vero Beach 2, Daytona 0. Not to be outdone by Houser, Jacob McGee pitched 7 scoreless innings with 5 hits and no walks. He struck out 6 to lower his ERA to 1.51.

Rome 4, Columbus 3. Oh, but the Catfish sees your McGee and raises you a Jeremy Hellickson. Hellickson struck out 10 in 5 scoreless innings. He allowed only 1 hit and 2 walks. He struck out 7 of the first 9 batters he faced and did not allow a hit until the 5th inning.

NOTES FROM DOWN ON THE FARM…

• The Hardball Times has a story on “Ten Pitching Prospects Worth Knowing About.” Both Chris Mason of AA Montgomery and Andy Sonnanstine of AAA Durham make the list.

On Chris Mason: Mason’s strong start in 2006 was overshadowed when his strikeout rate dipped, his control faltered, and he started leaving the ball up in the zone and surrendering too many fly balls during the final two months of his first full professional season. He appears well-rested and has bounced back with another great start this year

On Andy Sonnanstine: The durable innings-eater continues to get batters to swing and miss by changing arm angles and effectively locating his secondary pitches and underwhelming fastball.

• Baseball America’s weekly “Hot Sheet” has Evan Longoria as the hottest prospect in baseball. In doing so, they take a little shot at the player blocking Longoria from playing third base at AAA.

Just about every night, we take a walk down the street to see the Durham Bulls. And every night as we walk back to the parking deck located next to our offices, we wonder why we didn’t just see Evan Longoria playing third base in Triple-A.

Longoria is wreaking havoc in the Southern League, batting .366 with four bombs and 11 RBIs last week alone. In all, the third overall pick last year is hitting .333/.451/.621 with 18 extra-base hits and nearly as many walks (25) as strikeouts (27).

Enough of Joel Guzman’s tired act already. Guzman looks lethargic; like he’s just not having fun. Guess a .240 on-base will do that to a guy. One thing’s for sure, you know Longoria will bring the same energy to the park every day.

The Hangover: Is Elijah Dukes Overweight?

• This is why the Rays reporters bug the heck out of us. Here is an article about Elijah Dukes. The article itself is fairly benign. But early in the article Dukes has the following quote…

Hopefully when I get that call saying I’m in the league, I’ll probably be about 220 [pounds] again.

Then the article makes reference to his “245 pound frame”, and then never mentions his weight again. Did Dukes show up to camp out of shape? That’s how we read it. And if that is the case, why isn’t anybody making a bigger deal of this. One of the team’s top prospects, that has a legitimate shot at making the club and he shows up to camp 25 pounds overweight? Once again it looks like we have been duped by the talent that is Elijah Dukes.

• Casey Fossum’s goals for 2007? How about 180 innings and a groin that isn’t sore. Now, we don’t know about the groin. That sounds like a personal problem. But in six major league seasons, Fossum has never pitched more than 162 innings. In 2006, Fossum made 25 starts and only had 130 innings. That’s just over 5 innings per start. Even if he stays healthy for 35 sta….We’re sorry. We had trouble typing that without laughing. Even if he stays healthy for 35 starts, that would be about 175 innings. There is no way Fossum is making 35 starts and he is not getting 180 innings. The best news is that Fossum is the most likely candidate to be traded by the deadline in July.
• Jorge Cantu is saying the same things every player says when they come back from an injury-filled season. He is healthy. He is in great shape. He is ready to get back to doing what he is capable of doing…yada, yada, yada. We’ll see. The Rays are hopeful at best, which explains why they have contingency plans. At least his dad explained to him that he shouldn’t jump in the hole in the road. huh?
• Earlier this week we wondered aloud when Jeff Niemann would make his major league debut. Looks like he could follow a similar path of James Shields who made 10 AAA starts before making his debut at the end of May.
• In the same article is word that B. J. Upton took some turns at second base.
• Shawn Riggans is three years older than Dioner Navarro and he likes him sum fishin’. Speaking of Little Pudge…He is only the fifth catcher in the last 25 years with as much major league catching experience at such a young age. There are some pretty big names on that list. Catcher’s are notorious for developing slowly, especially with the bat. It is the most difficult position to master. That is why Riggans is still considered a prospect at the ripe age of 26. Navarro’s experience will pay dividends down the road.
• Great interview with Rays prospect Jacob McGee. Hard to read that and not salivate just a little. We here at RI always try to temper our excitement when it comes to prospects at lower levels. That’s why Reid Brignac is not ranked higher in our TVI. We have seen too many instances where a top prospect just levels out and fails to progress. But this kid just keeps getting better. This kid is going to be good.
• The Trop is getting new FieldTurf. Early reviews are that the turf slows the ball down which will be good for pitchers, but will cut down on the number of extra base hits. It will be interesting to see if Carl Crawford will still be the king of triples
• We stared at THIS page for a good five minutes trying to figure out why a website with that name was doing a Devil Rays preview.