[THE HANGOVER] Three. Numbers. Is. Toooo. Much.

Tampa Bay Rays (42 days until pitchers and catchers report)
It is a slow time in baseball right now and a lot of baseball team blogs are struggling to find things to write about. To fill the time, most of these sites are (over)analyzing 2007 and picking apart the numbers and delving deeper in the endless foray of the new age statistics. Other sites are assigning rankings to dozens of minor league prospects that they have never seen play and probably couldn’t pick out of a police lineup. Of course, if they decide to take a week or two off during the holidays, the natives get restless. We can’t risk that, so we will now bring back “The Hangover” and analyze the 2007 Tampa Bay Devil Rays by the numbers…Ready? OK, here goes…66-96. Done. Let’s move on.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• For those that have asked. No. Mrs. Professor did not give me a dog named Herpes for Christmas (although she wanted to). [What I absolutely love]
• There is yet another new Tampa Bay Rays blog written by somebody that is not a fan of the team. Nothing wrong with that…Just sayin’…In the latest post, they discuss the Rays’ bullpen and how to improve it (Apparently steroids is no longer an option). The post is fine and dandy until we read “Bill Chastain, an eminent MLB.Com reporter…” Eminent? I do not think that word means what you think it means. We read everything by Chastain. A lot of it is very good. A lot. is. crap. Also, we are confused by the name of the new blog. Where does “Dough” come into this? Is that Dough as is in bread? Or Dough as in money? Is it a metaphor? And does the title mean the blog will only be around for one year? And does the blogger know that 2008 is a leap-year? Will he take one day off this year? Does he already know which day? [365 Days of Dough, Rays, and Me]
• A little old, but Baseball Prospectus gives us the Rays’ Top 11 prospects, and the list includes five 5-star prospects. We are glad to see that some still consider Reid Brignac an elite prospect. And having seen both Wade Davis and Jake McGee pitch, we have our money on Davis being the better major leaguer. McGee’s only advantage over Davis at this point is being left-handed. [Baseball Prospectus]

Five-Star Prospects
1. Evan Longoria, 3B
2. David Price, LHP
3. Wade Davis, RHP
4. Desmond Jennings, CF
5. Reid Brignac, SS
Four-Star Prospects
6. Jacob McGee, LHP
Three-Star Prospects
7. Eduardo Morlan, RHP
8. Jeff Niemann, RHP
9. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP
10. Fernando Perez, CF
11. Ryan Royster, OF

• In addition, hidden behind the Baseball Prospectus member wall is the list of the Rays top players under the age of 25, which they call “a borderline obnoxious collection of excellent young talent”. We love that Dioner Navarro is ranked so high. As you know, we are still big believers in Lil’ Pudge. [Baseball Prospectus]

1. Scott Kazmir, LHP
2. Evan Longoria, 3B
3. David Price, LHP
4. B.J. Upton, CF
5. Matt Garza, RHP
6. Wade Davis, RHP
7. Desmond Jennings, CF
8. Reid Brignac, SS
9. Dioner Navarro, C
10. Jacob McGee, LHP

• DRaysBay interviews Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus about their list of the top prospects in the Rays organization. If you only marginally know the Rays farm system, this is a must-read. [DRays Bay]
• Bill Chastain interviews Jacob McGee. [DevilRays.com]
  
• Jayson Stark looks at how the Tampa Bay Rays plan to keep up with the heavyweights in the American League and speculates that they will be able to win 90 games in 2009. [ESPN]

Maybe nobody on the outside takes this team seriously. But within the sport, the Rays are already a source of rapidly loudening buzzing. Offensively, they just outhomered the Red Sox, outscored the Blue Jays and outstole all but two teams in the league. Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, their stockpile of young pitching is up there with anyone’s. So this is a team with a chance to win 90 games by 2009. Whether it can ever spend $90 million to keep that group intact is another story. But for now, the Rays are locked inside that tunnel vision. They’re all about development and more development.

• The Sporting News features Evan Longoria as one of “Baseball’s next wave of stars”. [The Sporting News]
• Fox Sports lists Scott Kazmir and James Shields as one of the top 10 pitching duos in baseball. [Fox Sports]

You don’t find many 23-year-old lefties who are capable of leading the league in strikeouts, but Kazmir is just that. He’s always had tremendous gifts on the mound, and now the numbers are following suit. If he stays healthy, then Kazmir’s going to win multiple Cy Youngs in his career. The trade that sent him from the Mets in exchange for Victor Zambrano is going to turn out to be one of the steals of the decade. As for Shields, he’s a four-pitch, command guy who turned in an exceptional first half. Matt Garza’s eventually going to replace him as the No. 2 man in the Tampa rotation, but right now Shields is a nifty complement to Kazmir.

• The Rays have set up a website for the proposed stadium along the St. Pete waterfront. [
  MajorLeagueDOWNTOWN.com]
• Small world. Ben Zobrist and I were both in Iowa City, Iowa on Christmas Eve, although we were gone by the time Zobrist spoke at a Christmas Eve service where his wife Julianna sang. [Iowa City Press-Citizen]

The Hangover: Delmon Young Is Heating Up

Devil Rays 8, Rangers 6.
Forgve us for getting all “scouty” on you, but we just want to take a moment to point out how smart a hitter Delmon Young is becoming. Here is the pitch sequence before his walk-off home run in the 10th inning.

1. Fastball up and in…Ball 1
2. Fastball up and in…Swing and miss
3. Slider low and away….foul tip (count: 1-2)
4. Hanging slider…fouled back (count: 1-2)
5. Fastball up…Ball 2 (count: 2-2)

We have a situation here where a young pitcher is pitching to Delmon by the book. Delmon doesn’t walk and loves to swing the bat. He is a first-ball fastball hitter in the classic sense. The young pitcher also knows that Delmon could end the game with one swing and already has one home run on the night. So, all Eyre is throwing Delmon are fastballs up and out of the strike zone and “safe” sliders low-and-away. He gets Delmon to chase one of the fastballs. After the 4th pitch, Delmon is locked in. He now knows that he won’t get a fastball in the strikezone so he adjusts his swing. He knows that the pitcher is either going to try to get him to chase a fastball out of the strike zone or he is going to try and paint the outside corner, where the worst scenario is a single to right and best case scenario is a swing-and-miss or a ground ball to the left side of the infield for a double-play (a batter that tries to pull an outside pitch will hit a weak groundball to the left 90% of the time). Delmon is not going to chase another fastball up. So now he is locked in on the slider away. Sure enough, he gets another slider away on pitch 6. It wasn’t a great slider, but it wasn’t a “hanger” either. Delmon went with the pitch and he is strong enough to get it over the fence down the right field line.

The Rays are now 18-22 and only 2 games behind The Charlie Hough Line. They have reached this point with very little contribution from Rocco Baldelli and Delmon Young, two players that were being counted on to carry this team at the beginning of the season. Rocco is on the DL now, but Young is 6-12 in the past three games. If Delmon can start cookin’, this team will start scoring in bunches.

Speaking of being on fire. Brendan Harris is now hitting 17-41 (.415) over the past 10 games and was 9-14 in the Rangers series. He has his average up to .358 with a .402 OBP. This is a guy that many thought wouldn’t even make the team out of spring training. When the Rays decided to keep Harris and send Jorge Cantu to Durham many thought that Rays management were over-thinking the situation. We don’t hear anybody complaining now.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Jayson Stark is reporting that the Rays are entertaining the idea of promoting Evan Longoria and Reid Brignac before the trading deadline. This increases the likelihood of a position player being traded during the season.
• Rocco Baldelli is back on the DL and Greg Norton has been activated. After an MRI, the injury did not appear to be as severe as first thought. Still, no word on when Rocco may be able to return.
• the Rays current 4-game winning streak was the first of Joe Maddon’s career as manager. The Rays won 4-straight once in 2006, but Maddon was not present for two of those games.
• We agree. Rocco’s home address should 123 Disabled List.
• The third game for the series in Orlando drew the biggest crowd at 9,635 and the set averaged 8,806. Pretty safe to say the Rays will be back in 2008.
• Tonight is “Legends of Wrestling” night at the Trop. At first we hung our head in shame, but then we saw THIS picture. Ohhh Raymond.
• Let’s start the Mock Drafting!

The Hangover: A Stomach-Punch Loss For The Rays

“stomach-punch” game. Carl Crawford hit a double in the 9It’s funny but sad. Losing a lead in the 8th or 9th inning should be the worst way to lose a game. The Devil Rays bullpen blows so many leads late in games, that when they do, it is never very painful. It is almost expected. Last night, however, was painful. A classicth inning with the score tied 2-2 that would have given the Rays men on second and third with no outs. Instead CC, who is pre-programmed to hit triples, kept on running, and ran the Rays right out of the inning. The Rays would lose in the bottom of the 9th on a Justin Mourneau walk-off home run 3-2. That was a painful way to lose. However, Crawford’s base running blunder in the 9th was only part of it. The Rays wasted a solid performance by Casey Fossum. Those don’t come all very often. It is is sad to see one slip away.

• Joe Maddon now has Rocco Baldelli leading off and Carl Crawford hitting third. OK, no big deal. So why are we mentioning it again? Because of this quote that made us chuckle..

I don’t want to try to over-think it at all — Joe Maddon

Papa Joe? Overthink? Never!

• Before the game Joe Maddon said that he was very interested to see how well Casey Fossum would pitch. That sounds as if Papa Joe is contemplating Fossum’s position in the rotation.
• Tonight Scott Kazmir will take the mound for the second straight appearance and go head-to-head with a Cy Young winner. Last time out it was Roy Halladay. This time it is Johan Santana.
• BJ Upton and his brother Justin got their love of baseball from their father. This piece also touches on potential reasons why BJ is one of so few African-Americans in the game today. In fact the Devil Rays have more African-Americans on their roster (6) than any other big league club.
• In their first 81 plate appearances, Delmon Young, Rocco Baldelli and BJ Upton have combined for 4 walks. Jayson Stark notes that this came after Joe Maddon instituted mandatory pitch counts for batters in the spring.
• A Twins fan has put together a collection of Devil Rays mugshots. We are not quite sure why we find the collection so interesting, although in a few instances the writer has included images from multiple seasons and the changes seem fascinating to us. For example, you can really see how Dioner Navarro has slimmed down in 2007.
• A lot has been made of the two caught steeling attempts by Carl Crawford. It appears as though the Rangers may have watered the area around first base a little too much.

The Hangover: Break Up The Devil Rays!

• 16 runs and 29 hits in two days after the Rays 9-2 victory over the ‘Stros, and all of the sudden the Rays have won 4 of 6. James Shields struck out 6 in 5.1 innings but struggled with his control, walking 4. Seth McClung looked better, giving up only 1 hit to the five batters he faced. Chad Orvella pitched yet another scoreless inning. At the plate, Carl Crawford, Ty Wigginton, Delmon Young, B. J. Upton and Elijah Dukes all had multiple hits. Don’t look now but Dukes is all of the sudden hitting .314 and with Rocco Baldelli’s tender hamstring, he is just about a lock to break camp with the Rays.
• Rocco Baldelli is day-to-day at this point. Does that mean that his hamstring is not serious and we will see him soon? Not necessarily. Here is a telling tidbit from the piece:

Since Baldelli’s had so many different issues with his legs over the last couple of years, he has a hard time analyzing the extent of his leg problems. So when Baldelli was asked whether he feared missing a significant amount of time time, he shrugged his shoulders

• Interesting news here…Papa Joe announced that Akinori Iwamura will probably only start against right handed pitchers basically dropping him into a platoon situation, B. J. Upton and Ty Wigginton getting the starts versus left-handed starters.
• Unless the Rays make a trade in next 10 days, the Rays will open the season without a lefty in the bullpe. The Rays optioned Jeff Ridgway to Durham, the only legitimate left handed candidate to make the roster. And, no, we do not consider Jon Switzer a legitimate candidate.
• In 2006 the Rays lost 61 games in which they held a lead. To quote Jim Leyland…If you want to win, have a good bullpen. If you want to lose, have a (bad) bullpen.
• Jayson Stark in his latest “Rumblings and Grumblings” lists James Shields as one of 12 players that scouts have mentioned as a player that is “ready to explode to a whole new level.” Stop teasing us Mr. Stark.

The Great B. J. Upton Debate

B. J. “Don’t call me Melvin” Upton is a big story for the Rays this Spring and the Worldwide Leader is starting to pick up on it. Papa Joe Maddon is giving Upton a shot to make the team as a “super-utility” player. He would not have a regular position, but he could see 400+ at bats at a number of different positions, including shortstop, second, third and any of the outfield positions. The hope is that Upton can take pressure off of himself to perform defensively and allow him to concentrate on rediscovering his offensive prowess that had him in the major leagues at the ripe age of 19. “Super-utility” players have become an important part of baseball and Maddon is modelling Upton after one of his former players, Chone Figgins. Figgins has flourished offensively without a regular position in the Angels lineup.

Still, many have wondered aloud if this is a prudent move with a young talent like Upton. Some feel the move will actually slow his progress defensively without an opportunity to work everyday at one position. Both Rob Neyer and Jayson Stark took up the debate about Upton yesterday. Neyer’s article can be found HERE, but is part of ESPN Insider. You can find Jayson starks article HERE.

Stark starts his article with the question, Who didn’t think B.J. Upton would be a star by now? The first part of the article is a recap of how Bossman Junior went from can’t miss prospect to trying to make the team as a utility player. Stark does a good job reminding us that Upton is still only 22 years old. It easy to think that he is much older, considering he made his major league debut in 2002.

Stark also touches on Joe Maddon’s decision to give Upton a Chone Figgins-like role with the 2007 Rays.

Great idea. But what no one knows — yet — is whether this is the right way to get him to that place. After all, if a guy’s biggest problem is his defense, is it going to make things better or worse to toss him into a constantly spinning defensive Cuisinart?

Rob Neyer is a little less understanding in his piece, arguing that the Rays and Maddon should have Upton in the outfield and the outfield only. His first piece of evidence to point out all the hall of fame outfielders that started as shortstops, including Mickey Mantle, Hank Aaron and Larry Doby.

Apparently if you move a poor defensive shortstop to the outfield, they become hall of famers. Then again, in those days shortstop was not a power position. Those three players were all hall of famers, and very likely would have still been hall of famers had they stayed at shortstop. The hall of fame is riddled with great offensive force that played the field like the ball was a hand grenade.

Neyer then blasts the Rays organization for the way they have handled Upton and the way they continue to handle him.

He’s been a professional baseball player for four full seasons, and he’s been an infielder during all of those seasons. At least one of those seasons was absolutely wasted, and it looks like the Devil Rays are about to waste another.

We actually have no idea what he means by a wasted season. Was Derek Jeter’s 1993 season at Greensboro wasted because he committed 56 errors? What about his last season at AAA when he committed 29 errors in 123 games? Apparently the Yankees should have made him an outfielder because now Jeter has no shot at making the hall of fame.

He even refers to Joe Maddon as an “otherwise bright fellow”, and blasts the organization for not trading Rocco Baldelli to make room for Upton in center field.

It is wrong. It’s time to get his career started. If the Devil Rays won’t or can’t put him in the outfield where he belongs, they should trade him to somebody who will. This has nothing to do with imagination. It’s nothing but doing the obviously smart thing. The right thing.

Now we don’t know what the right move is with Upton. We are as frustrated as any Rays fan, but we trust that Papa Joe and Co. are smarter baseball people than we are. Ultimately the success of this move is not up to Joe Maddon or Rob Neyer. It is up to B. J. Upton, and Upton alone.