[THE HANGOVER] Akinori Iwamura Need Not Worry About Second-Year Struggles Of Other Japanese Position Players

Tampa Bay Rays (24 days until pitchers and catchers report)
DRays Bay looks at the history of Japanese position players that have made the switch to Major League Baseball and their improvement (or lack thereof) from year one to year two. History does not bode well for Akinori Iwamura as only Hideki Matsui improved significantly and the other five players on the list showed a decline in OPS in their second year. This does not worry us at all. Of the players on the list, only Matsui had to significantly alter his approach at the plate when he came to the US.

When he came to the Yankees, Matsui hit only 16 home runs in his first season, despite hitting 40 home runs in three of his 11 seasons in Japan. In year two, Matsui made adjustments to the pitchers, the bigger parks and improved his home run total to 31. More impressive was that even though he was starting to hit more home runs, he recognized that he was never going to be the same home run hitter in the US as he was in Japan and transformed himself into a doubles machine. In 11 seasons in Japan, Matsui only exceeded 30 doubles on three occasions with a career-high of 34. Matsui exceeded those totals in his first three seasons with the Yankees with season totals of 42, 34 and 45 doubles.

Of the other five players on that list, only Kazuo Matsui ever hit as much as 30 home runs in one season in Japan. None of those players had to make the adjustment from power-hitter, to good all-around hitter.

In his two seasons prior to coming to the Devil Rays, Iwamura had home run totals of 44 and 32 (in 2003 Iwamura hit 12 home runs in 60 games, which projects to 30 over the course of a full season). Nobody expected Iwamura to come in and hit 35 home runs for the Rays. In fact, Iwamura predicted 20 home runs. When the season was over, his home run total was 7, a fry cry from his Japan League totals and his own prediction. However, the drop-off in power mimicked that of Matsui in 2003.

We are not expecting Iwamura to rebound and hit 30 home runs in 2008, but it would not surprise us if his power numbers see a significant boost in season two. By the end of the season we expect to see that Iwamura’s home run total is on par with his prediction entering last season (20) and we also expect to see a significant bump in doubles (21 in 2007). If that occurs, Iwamura will not only improve his OPS in year two, he will establish himself as one of the top-hitting second basemen in baseball.

Aki to battle recent history [DRays Bay]

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Considerable debate was raised over our criticism of Joe Maddon’s “goal” of 81 wins. While we ackowledge he wants more than 81 wins, we felt it was poorly worded and it is the wording that the fans and the players will gravitate towards. In Marc Topkin’s most recent piece, Stuart Sternberg did a much better job of conveying the team’s perception of what is accepted of the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays. “The goal is to get the organization to a place where we feel coming in we should win 80-something games, and if things break right you win 8-10 more and if things break badly you win 10 less,” he said. “We’re pretty much there. Being in a position to win 65 with the chance to win 75 is not acceptable.” In Sterberg’s words, this is an 80-win team with a chance to be a 90-win team if things break right for the Rays. This was our point from the beginning. Papa Joe made it sound like the Rays are a 75-win team and we should all be happy if they won 81 games. Sternberg’s and our position is that this incarnation of the Rays should win 80 games, and anything less would be a disappointment. [TampaBay.com]
• Further down in the same piece, Topkin reports that the Rays are in talks with left-handed reliever Trever Miller, but that length of contract remains a sticking point. [TampaBay.com]
• MLB Trade Rumors takes on the Tampa Bay Rays in their latest installment of “Needs and Luxuries”. With the piece, MLBTR addresses this season’s lineup and looks ahead to 2009 and some of the changes the Rays could have in store when they make a serious push for the playoffs. [MLB Trade Rumors]
• Baseball America takes a look at the 2008 draft and upon further review…yep…The Devil Rays did suck last year more than any other team (again) and will have the top pick on the draft. Jim Callis speculates that the Rays could take high school shortstop Tim Beckham, over college third baseman Pedro Alvarez. [Baseball America]

The Rays have a lot of quality pitching coming through their pipeline, but teams always want more and they could opt for one of the top college arms, Missouri righthander Aaron Crow or San Diego lefty Brian Matusz. Tampa Bay has gone with pitchers with three of its last four top picks, so my gut feel is they’ll be more inclined to go for a bat. It says here they’ll opt for Georgia high school shortstop Tim Beckham over Vanderbilt third baseman Pedro Alvarez because Beckham plays a more premium position. I still think Alvarez is going to become a first baseman or left fielder by the time he reaches the majors

Draft Pre-Gaming: Beauty Or The Beast?

We are now less than 24 hours away from what will be the biggest day of the 2007 baseball season for the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. From most accounts the Rays are faced with the exact same scenario that the Minnesota Twins had to endure in 2001 when they had to choose between Joe Mauer and Mark Prior. In that draft, the Twins went with the can’t-miss catcher who didn’t miss over the “can’t miss” pitcher that has so far not even been close to the target.

All indications are that the Rays will take David Price and we have to admit that a 2009 rotation of Kazmir-Shields-Price makes us down-right giddy. Still, the new Devil Rays front office subscribes to two philosophies that fully agree with. First is the idea of taking the best player available, regardless of position. The second philosophy is an old adage in baseball of being strong up the middle, and that starts with the catching position. We still think the Rays will take Price, but it would not surprise us if the Rays selected Matt Wieters. The Rays pitching depth in the minor leagues is suddenly a strength of the organization and Dioner Navarro has yet to show signs of becoming the all-star many projected when he was the Yankees top prospect. Of course, Wieters might be an easier selection to make if he weren’t represented by Satan.

DEVIL RAYS DRAFTOPIA…

• David Price may have tipped the hand of the Devil Rays the other day when he participated in a conference call. He sounded a lot like a player that had already been selected by the Devil Rays.

It’s only a matter of time before they start competing for pennants…I think they’re going to have a great team. With leaders like Scott Kazmir and Carl Crawford leading a group of young, great players. It’s gonna make it a lot easier and fun to play. With manager Joe Maddon, one of the great managers in baseball, they’re obviously a great talented team.

• Good news for the Devil Rays, if indeed David Price is there guy. Vanderbilt was eliminated from the NCAA tournament much earlier than expected. The loss means that Price, who normally throws 120-130 pitches per game, will have 3-4 fewer starts this year than had Vandy gone on to win the College World Series.
• Three of the top draft experts from Baseball America participated in a roundtable discussion about this year’s baseball draft. When asked if David Price would be the first pick of the draft, Jim Callis and Alan Matthews agreed that Price should be and will be the top pick.

The consensus among most scouting directors is that Price stands above everyone else in his draft class. As one put it, “There’s David Price, but after that there aren’t a lot of top-of-the-draft guys.” I’d say that he’s rated just slightly higher than Andrew Miller was as the top prospect last year. Price also is advised by Bo McKinnis, so there shouldn’t be much risk of protracted negotiations. He’ll probably get the standard contract given to the best college pitchers each year, a big league deal worth from $5 million to $6 million, and MLB may have the Rays wait to announce it because it doesn’t want that deal to affect others. Price also would be a good fit for Tampa Bay. The Rays’ biggest weakness in the majors is pitching, even though they have some impressive arms coming up through the minor [Jim Callis]

The deal breaker comes in your evaluation of Price, for me. If he’s a true No. 1 pitcher, and some scouts think he is, I don’t see how you can walk away from him, regardless of your evaluation of Wieters. I don’t think R.J. Harrison, the Devil Rays scouting director, has any doubts about Wieters’ ability to catch and throw. Let’s not forget, Harrison himself was a tall, lanky catcher in his days in college at Arizona State who was drafted by the Cardinals. But based on the way Price has pitched, my hunch is the Rays’ like him as a future No. 1 pitcher, recognize the lack of starting pitching in Tampa Bay at present, and make Price their choice. [Alan Matthews]

• John Manuel also thinks Price should be the top pick but argues that a case can be made for Matt Wieters.

I think Price should be, though I do think a case could be made for Matt Wieters. If “signability” weren’t a factor, I’d really want to know, if I were running a club, if my scouts thought Wieters could catch and throw at the big league level. It sounds like he can, and it sounds like he can hit. A switch-hitting C, possible repeat all-star kind of talent, versus a front-of-the-rotation LHP. I’d actually consider organization need in that case, because to me both are legit 1/1 overall talents, and you’re not selling yourself short on talent. In the end I’d still take Price, but it’s pretty close on talent, for me. I don’t think there’s another true 1/1 talent in the draft; it’s down to those two. [John Manuel]

• Jonathon Mitchell makes a case for Matt Weiters over David Price.
• Scouting director, RJ Harrison claims that the Rays have yet to decide who the #1 pick will be.
• One deterrent against David Price is the recent history of top pitcher draft picks that have needed surgery shortly after being drafted and Price has thrown a lot of pitches this season.
• Buster Olney says David Price should be the guy.

Spoke with a couple of general managers recently and asked if they would trade their best young pitcher for Crawford — in both cases, these are excellent major league pitchers — and they immediately shot down the speculation. “No chanc
e,” said one. “I love Crawford, and there are a lot of players I would trade for him. But not that guy [the pitcher], because how would I replace him?”…So if the Rays pass on Price, they would still be searching for someone like him. They need to take the pitcher.