Rays Roster And Lineup Projections Update

We are a few weeks, two intra-squad games and four official games into Spring Training. Now is a good time to take a look at our 2007 25-man roster projections. Over the course of the next month we will update these projections twice a week.

A couple of notes on these projections…

• We understand that a few of the players listed as “secure” are not guaranteed to be the opening day starter at their respective positions. For example, there is an outside shot that Akinori Iwamura could still be the opening day second baseman. Still, at this point there is no indication that a move will happen. The “secure” positions are based on what we believe would happen if Papa Joe Maddon had to name his opening day lineup and roster today.
• Several people have made the argument that our previous prediction of an 11-man pitching staff was unlikely. Their arguments must have been strong because we now tend to agree that Papa Joe is more likely to keep seven arms in the bullpen and only four bats on the bench.
• With those numbers in mind, it now looks as if there are four roster spots up for grabs, with two on the bench and two in the bullpen. We almost listed B. J. Upton as secure, but we still think there is a remote chance that the team will send him back to Durham for more work. Even though Al Reyes is not on the 40-man roster we give him the edge in the final two bullpen slots. As long as he is healthy (and every indication so far is that he is) it is his position to lose. The final bullpen spot is really just a guess at this point.
• We have long thought that the final spot in the rotation would go to J. P. Howell based on his performance towards the end of 2006. However, of the prospective pitchers vying for the final spot, Jae-Kuk Ryu is the only one that has been given a start so far and he pitched a solid two innings.
• Greg Norton has been the DH with the regulars, but we still think when the season starts Papa Joe will go with Jonny Gomes on a regular basis, if not every day.

The Hangover: When Ozzie Smith Dies He Will Roll Over In His Grave

• Last year the Rays struggled in a number of areas on their way to 101 losses. Let’s take a look at how those struggles have translated to the first few games of the Spring.

1. Bullpen blows leads? Check
2. Starting pitchers throw too many pitches keeping them from working deep in games? Check
3. Offensive struggles? Check

Well at least the defense has played better…What was that? Six errors yesterday? All-time team record for Spring Training or regular season? Nevermind.

• Jae-Kuk Ryu may have taken an early lead in the fight for the 5th spot in the rotation surrendering only a single in two shutout innings against the Jays.
• Papa Joe Maddon says that Shawn Riggans can “absolutely make the team” as the backup catcher. We assume by “absolutely” he means “if Rigo can hit .600 with 10 home runs in Spring Training and Josh Paul loses two limbs.” The starting catcher for the Rays is only 23 years old. A team with such a young pitching staff and a young catcher can only benefit from having a veteran backup catcher. The pitchers will learn more. Dioner Navarro will learn more. Paul is not the biggest threat with the stick off the bench but he is serviceable and when Navarro needs rest it will benefit the team to have a veteran in his place.
• Papa Joe is infatuated with the defensive skills of Joel Guzman if not so much in love with his bat. The indication is that his days in the outfield are probably over and if Guzman can ever lose the gigantic holes in his swing and develop some more bat speed, his future in the majors is probably at third base.

The Hangover: Joe Maddon Not Afraid Of Bulging Veins

• Papa Joe Maddon is going to tighten the reigns on his young team this season and is not afraid to get in a players face, just don’t expect to read about it in the paper. Team owner Stuart Sternberg is glad that none of the players Got A Delmon from Papa Joe, even though they may have deserved it at times.
  
• At the end of THIS post is some video footage of Akinori Iwamura from Japan. Granted the video is only of home runs, but we like his swing. There is definite similarity to Ichiro’s swing except he appears to get better extension, while Ichiro has a more compact swing. The swing is effortless and level and Muu-Rah uses the whole ballpark, hitting a lot of opposite-field home runs. Once he adjusts to Major League pitchers he is going to hit home runs. He will never hit mid-40s but he probably can hit 30.
• We all love the Rays outfield. But what do they think about each other? Love, man…nothin’ but love.
  
• Joe Maddon wants Carlos Pena to know that he doesn’t have to pull everything to hit home runs. Using the whole field will go a long ways to cutting down on his strikeouts. The Detroit News is skeptical.
  
• With the addition of Osprey-killer, Jae-Kuk Ryu, FanNation decided to look back at all the troublemakers that the Rays have had on their roster in the team’s history (and the list is not as short as you would hope). They don’t even include Jose Canseco, who, surprisingly, was a model citizen for the Rays.
• Stuart Sternberg is trying to sell the Rays as a promotional opportunity to local businesses. He also stated that the team will not market the team to Japan and only expects a small bump in attendance in response to the signing of Akinori Iwamura.