[KID K] Scott Kazmir Likely To Be Traded Following 2008 Season

Rays fans need to pay attention to the sagas drawn out in Minnesota and Baltimore this off-season as the same situation is likely to unfold with the Rays next winter.

Last week the Minnesota Twins traded Johan Santana to the New York Mets. Santana and the Mets subsequently agreed to a $137.5 million contract extension. The contract given to Santana, as well as the deal signed by Barry Zito last season ($126 million), in all likelihood ended any hopes that the Rays had of ever signing Scott Kazmir to an extension.

Optimism for the future of the Tampa Bay Rays has been riding at an all-time high thanks to recent contract extensions signed by Carlos Pena and James Shields. After stockpiling an arsenal of young talent the team is now showing the players and the fans that they will not only develop the talent, but they are willing to spend money to retain those players. Unfortunately, that warm and fuzzy feeling should now be tempered by the Santana trade that on the surface appeared to have little effect on the Rays.

While Kazmir is not yet to the level of Santana and Zito, he is left-handed, he is a proven winner and he will be three years younger (27) than Santana would have been (30) in his first free agency season. And now word is coming down that $17 million per season may not be enough to keep C.C. Sabathia in Cleveland.

One does not need to stretch their imagination too far to think that Kazmir and his agent Brian Peters will seek a deal for at least seven years, worth $110 million or more, once Kazmir hits free agency. For a team that is likely to have a payroll in the $50-60 million range in three years, it is inconceivable that they would commit $15-17 million to one player.

In the past, it would be a little early to be concerned about the pending free agency for a player just entering his first arbitration-eligible season, but the times, they are a-changin’. In addition to the contracts signed by Santana and Zito, the Rays will also pay close attention to how the situation unfolds in Baltimore with Erik Bedard.

Bedard is another young lefty that figures to cash-in on a contract similar to those signed by Santana and Zito. Rather than wait until next year, when the Orioles negotiating leverage will be weaker, Baltimore has decided to trade Bedard this off-season, two years prior to free agency. In return, the Orioles are expected to land a young player with all-star potential (Adam Jones), a relief pitcher and three top pitching prospects. Most agree that the package the Orioles are expected to receive is much stronger than that which the Twins received for Santana.

Unless the Rays decide to move the team’s payroll into the $60-70 million range, a move that seems highly unlikely, or Kazmir is willing to give the Rays a hometown discount of historic proportions (something the players union will never let happen), the team will not be able to afford the services of Kazmir much longer. In addition, the Rays have the luxury of several top pitching prospects that could be ready to enter the rotation as early as next season, including Jake McGee, Wade Davis and last year’s #1 overall pick, David Price.

If trading the young ace is a foregone conclusion, then the time to do it will be following the 2008 season when his price will be at its peak. The Rays can expect to receive a package at least on par with what the Orioles received for Bedard, if not greater, as Bedard has a history of injuries and has never thrown 200 innings in a season.

Thanks to Johan Santana and Barry Zito, the 2008 season could very well be Kid K’s last in a Rays uniform.

Johan Santana Traded To The Mets; Rays Dodge Bullets [Rays Index]
Mets Finalize Deal With Johan Santana [MLB Trade Rumors]
Tampa Bay Rays Lock Up Carlos Pena For 3 Years [Rays Index]
Six Or Seven Years For James Shields Is A Risk Worth Taking [Rays Index]
Baseball Bogs Weigh In: Eric Bedard [MLB Trade Rumors]
Santana Contract Could Spell Sabathia Departure [MLB Trade Rumors]

[JOHAN SANTANA] Johan Santana Traded To The Mets; Rays Dodge Bullet

USA Today (via MLB Trade Rumors) is reporting that the Twins have agreed to a deal with the Mets for Johan Santana.

The deal is pending the Mets and Santana reaching agreement on a six- or seven-year contract extension and that Santana passes a physical; they have been granted a 48 to-72-hour window to do so. Santana has a no-trade clause that he will waive if agreement is reached on a contract extension.

The Mets paid a high price in prospects to land Santana, agreeing to send the Twins outfielder Carlos Gomez and pitchers Phil Humber, Deolis Guerra and Kevin Mulvey.

This deal has a large impact on the Tampa Bay Rays in 2008 and for the next six or seven years. Only two other teams were reportedly in serious contention to acquire Santana, and both reside in the AL East (Red Sox and Yankees).

If Santana had landed with either Boston or New York, Santana would have made approximately four starts against the Rays. Unless Sandy Koufax, circa 1966, comes out of retirement and signs with the Red Sox or Yankees, the Rays now have a much better chance to win those four games. In addition, either team would have just acquired a pitcher that would have helped them maintain their level of dominance for the better part of the next decade.

The Rays just dodged a large bullet. Actually, the Rays just dodged four bullets the size of Bigfoot, and hopes for making the playoffs in 2009 or 2010 remain intact.

Johan Santana Trade To Mets [MLB Trade Rumors]
Twins agree to deal Santana to Mets for prospects [USA Today]

THE HANGOVER The Rays Are Not Shopping Scott Kazmir

Devil Rays (66-96)

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• The big news in the Raysiverse is that Scott Kazmir may be available. Calm down people. Kid K is not going anywhere. First of all, the source used by the New York Post is “An executive familiar with Tampa’s thinking”. So nobody…NOBODY…from the Rays front office said that they were actively shopping Kazmir. Just somebody talking to a reporter for a New York tabloid and speculating what they might do. And quite frankly, if the price for Johan Santana does get ridiculous, then it is only fair for the Rays front office to at least see what could be had for the best young left-hander in the game. Remember last off-season, Rocco Baldelli and Carl Crawford were both made available and no team was willing to meet the price. The price for Kid K will be astronomical and if a team can meet that price, then the Rays will need to make a decision. But we would put the chances of that happening at only slightly above “no chance in hell”. [New York Post]
• Gary Shelton has 20 reasons why A-Rod should join the Devil Rays. He forgot reason #21…The Trop will feel like Yankee Stadium…30,000 Yankees fans booing him. [tampabay.com]
• Jonny Gomes has had a big hand in helping kids fight cancer. [devilrays.com]
• The Devil Rays franchise has become the poster-child for what is wrong with revenue sharing in major league baseball. Critics point to the fact the Rays took in more revenue sharing (>$30 million) than they spent on the team’s payroll (~$25 million). The Rays front office has a plan. We are yet to see if the plan will work but spending money on mediocre free agents so that they can finish 3rd in the East rather than last is not part of the formula. When the core of the franchise is in place, with a solid minor league system in the works to fill the gaps, the team will then spend money on the one or two players needed to get the Rays over the top. Not before then. [New York Times]
• The Stat Pack interviews Will Carrol and he tackles several issues including the Rays medical staff as well as their ability to keep Scott Kazmir healthy. [The Stat Pack]

• The Rays have made a commitment to the medical staff from top to bottom in the organization, something that started in the Naimoli era and continues today. They have a plan that’s supported by everyone in the organization and great people working together to carry it out.

• Rattler Radio is running a series of posts looking at major league franchises and either their last championship or the closest they have come to winning one. The post for the Devil Rays is up and it was probably an easy one to write. [Rattler Radio]
• Former (?) Rays catcher Josh Paul has written a book about the mental side of being a catcher and he sat down with Baseball Prospectus to talk about it. The interview is behind the wall of a BP subscription. [Baseball Prospectus]

The Hangover: The Rays Finally Get To The Twins And Johan Santana

Thursday night’s game will now be known as “The Game We Do Not Speak Of.” Carl Crawford made up for it when left fielder Josh Rabe played CC’s single into an inside-the-park home run in the Rays 4-2 win over the Twins. Scott Kazmir did his part and out-dueled the two-time Cy Young winner Johan Santana. Kazmir was efficient working into the 8th inning and handing over the win to Al Reyes. Reyes worked a scoreless 9th inning for his 3rd save in 3 opportunities. A big win indeed, but can somebody please tell us why Carlos Pena was in the lineup last night. We understand he has been hitting well recently both in games (and batting practice apparently). But Pena is a left-handed hitter facing the best left-hander in the game. He is not the regular first baseman. We dopn’t second-guess Joe Maddon very often, but why on earth was Carlos Pena in the lineup?

• Akinori Iwamura’s hitting streak was snapped last night. Delmon Young extended his streak to all 10 games.
• Last night was the first loss at home for Johan Santana since August of 2005. He was 17-0 during the streak.
• It was the Rays first win in Minneapolis since June, 2004.
• Scott Kazmir was throwing harder in the 7th inning than he was in the 1st.
• Joe Maddon says the Rays are now at the point where they can score runs at any point in the lineup. Josh Paul’s rbi last night may have proved his point, although we are not overcome by confidence when Carlos Pena and Paul are in the lineup against Johan Santana.
• Was Carl Crawford’s base running error the worst ever? One Braves fan tries to compare it to Lonnie Smith’s gaff in the 1991 World Series. Thursday night was bad, but we are not sure how it is worse than costing your team a run late in game 7 with the score tied 0-0. A game and series that the Braves would go on to lose. That is a Braves fan in denial.