[THE HANGOVER] Dioner Navarro Is Just A Lil’ Guy

Devil Rays 7, Tiggers 1.
Dioner Navarro was 3-5 last night to raise his average above .200 for the first time (.201) since May 15. He also hit his 4th home in the last three weeks, after only hitting one in the first three and a half months.

Once considered the top catching prospect in baseball, when he was in the Yankee’s organization, Navi is in just his first full major-league season, after playing parts of each of the past three seasons. Despite the hype, Navarro has yet to show his potential at the plate. In addition to his .201 average, he only has a .259 OBP and .316 SLG. His .575 OPS is the third worst number in all baseball for players with at least 250 plate appearances.

Navarro is still only 23, which is about 18 in catcher’s years. Let’s take a look at how Navi’s contemporaries performed in their 23-year old season. Each of these catcher’s have made an all-star appearance since 2000. In many of these cases, the player split their season between more than one level. We tried to pick the level that was most indicative of their season. We used major league numbers if they played a more than a few weeks at that level. In the case of Mike Piazza, his season was split evenly between two levels so we included the numbers for both.

CATCHER	Level	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	OPS	K	BB
D. Navarro	MLB	.201	5	25	.259	.316	.575	45	21
J. Mauer	MLB	.347	13	84	.429	.507	.936	54	79
I. Rodriguez	MLB	.303	12	67	.327	.449	.776	48	16
R. Martin	MLB	.282	10	65	.355	.436	.791	57	45
B. McCann	MLB	.267	12	65	.317	.451	768	52	24
J. Lopez	MLB	.245	13	35	.299	.419	.718	61	17
B. Santiago	MLB	.248	10	46	.282	.362	.644	82	24
C. Johnson	MLB	.251	11	39	.351	.410	.761	71	46
J. Kendall	MLB	.294	8	49	.391	.434	.826	53	49
R. Hernandez	MLB	.279	3	21	.363	.397	.760	11	18
Pierzynski	MLB	.307	2	11	.354	.45	.809	14	5
J. Posada	AAA	.240	11	48	.308	.406	.714	81	32
M Lieberthal	AAA	.281	6	42	.388	.432	.820	26	44
V. Martinez	AA	.336	22	85	.417	.576	.993	62	58
P. LoDuca	AA	.246	1	8	.339	.302	.641	25	26
J. Varitek	AA	.224	10	44	.340	.361	.701	126	61
M. Piazza	AA/AAA	.350	23	90	.412	.587	.999	75	50
J. Girardi	AA	.272	7	41	.330	.375	.705	51	29
D. Miller	A	.212	1	26	.281	.265	.546	44	31

At first we were surprised how many of these catchers were in the major leagues at the age of 23. That should be a strong indication for future success from Navi, as reaching the majors as a catcher at such a young age is rare (Shawn Riggans is still considered a catching prospect at the age of 27). With Joe Mauer and Ivan Rodriguez being the obvious exceptions, most of these catchers posted average numbers, at best, even at the lower levels. The one constant throughout all these numbers is the excellent strikeout-to-walk ratios. In almost every instance, the numbers are close to 1-to-1 which is another strong indicator of future success for a young hitter. While Navarro’s numbers are down this season, his career strikeout-to-walk r
atios prior to this season were 229:179 (minors) and 72:51 (majors).

While we would have liked to have seen an OPS closer to .700-.750 this season, Navi is still very young and history has shown that numbers posted at a young age are not reflective of numbers posted later for catchers.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Jon Switzer is now the only lefty in the Rays bullpen and will be relied on more heavily than earlier this season when he was recalled from Durham. [TBO]
• With the promotion of Jon Switzer, the Rays will continue to employ only three hitters on the bench. On of those would be the backup catcher Josh Paul who is not likely to be used in games in which he does not start, leaving Joe Maddon with two pinch-hitting and substitution options at the end of games. [Devil Rays]
• We are not sold on James Shield’s clubhouse nickname. We need to come up with something good. Scott Kazmir is “Kid K” and Andy Sonnanstine is “The Duke”. Shields? [TBO]
• Scott Kazmir, who goes to the mound this afternoon for the Rays, has been using a more simplified approach when taking the mound and Joe Maddon attributes that to his recent success. [TBO]

“I’m just seeing a very simple approach to what he’s doing right now and I like it,” Maddon said. “You just really want to get to that point where you can really leave your physical mechanics on the sideline and just go out and pitch and rely on your mental mechanics.

The Hangover: The Casey Fossum-Era Comes To An End, One Season Too Late

Tiggers 9, Devil Rays 6.
Just the links for now. We will be back in a little while.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• BJ Upton has taken to centerfield very well but he is still learning how to play the position. In the meantime he will struggle with mental errors such as the one that allowed a routine fly ball to drop between he and Carl Crawford on Monday night. [MLB]
• Casey Fossum has been outrighted to AAA Durham and Jon Switzer has been recalled to replace him. The move is likely to mark the end of Fossum’s tenure with the Devil Rays. Fossum has 3 days to accept the demotion or become a free agent. Even if Fossum does accept the move, the team is not likely to pick up his option for 2008. Fossum posted a 7.89 ERA in 10 starts and a 7.30 ERA in 30 relief appearances to go along with a VORP of -20.9 which was the second worst in baseball for all pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched (Mike Maroth must be having a very shitty season). [tampabay.com]
• Tim Corcoran ended his rehab assignment with Montgomery after 7 appearances. Corcoran is currently on the 60-day DL, and does not count towards the 40-man roster. To be activated the Rays will need to add him to the 40-man roster, which they could do after the demotion of Casey Fossum. They may also try to designate him for assignment and outright Corcoran to Durham. [TBO]

The Hangover: We’re Going Streaking!

Devil Rays 8, Angels 3.
The Rays may have produced their best all-around performance of the year. In doing so, they stretched their winning streak to 1 in a row, matching their fourth longest streak of the season. The Devil Rays now have two shots to pick up a second win against the first place Angels and win their first series since taking two of three from the Dodgers June 22-24. Since that series, the Rays have lost five straight series and are 1-8 in their last nine..

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• BJ Upton was moved up to third in the lineup. [TampaBay.com]
• Al Reyes will come off the DL today and rejoin the team. [DevilRays.com]
• Jon Switzer was optioned to Durham to open a roster spot for Al Reyes. [TBO.com]
• Rocco Baldelli was at the Trop last night and stated that while there is no timetable for his return, he believes that he will return this season. [TBO.com]
• The Yankees have called up Matt DeSalvo to start one game of the double-header on Saturday in Yankee Stadium. The Rays will recall JP Howell for one of the games. Joe Maddon has yet to decide who will start the second game. More likely, they have decided and just don’t want us to know for whatever reason. [Courier News]
• Ryan Wilkins lists BJ Upton and Carlos Pena as two of the five players this season that has greatly exceeded 2007 expectations. [MLB.com]

[On Upton] Of course, none of this means he’s due for an immediate decline. While it’s more likely than not that his average will drop in the second half, Upton features a broad skill-set and impressive wheels — two factors that not only make him unique, but also allow him to maintain higher BABIPs than the vast majority of players. Conventional wisdom might peg him for an imminent collapse, but a closer look at his profile suggests a more mild decline.

[On Pena]it would be foolish to say that he’s a lock to be one of the best players at his position going forward, but at the same time, I’d like to think this breakout is more gold than pyrite. Teams have been impatient with Pena for half a decade; it’s about time he made them regret it.

• When his fellow players were asked who the most exciting player in baseball is, Carl Crawford finished tied for the fourth most votes received. [Bradenton Herald]
  
• The Pirates gave the #4 overall draft pick a $2.5 million signing bonus. No word on how, if at all, this will affect the Rays efforts to sign David Price. [SI.com]
• We have read a lot of dumb things on message boards through the years, but this might just be the most idiotic statement ever. [Doberman on the Diamond]

“Geoff Jenkins is better than Carl Crawford, let’s just stick with him for now if the best we could get is Crawford.” – JoeHova from Brewerfan

• We are sure that Kevin Towers loves his team. And we are sure he would LOVE to have Carl Crawford on the Padres, but acquiring him is a little more difficult than “GO GET CARL CRAWFORD”. Also, we love just about everything about C.C., but to say he has a plus arm is like saying John Kruk has sexy hair. [Sneaky Sports]
  

The Hangover: No Answer For Rays Recent Struggles

Red Sox 7, Devil Rays 5.
10 straight losses as we near the All-Star break. At one point this season the Devil Rays had three of the ten worst starting pitchers in baseball in their rotation and yet they were only 4 games below The Charlie Hough Line (.500). Since, then two of the three members of The Axis of Evil (Jae Seo and Casey Fossum) have been banished and the third (Edwin Jackson) has pitched better (although he continues to pitch just well enough to lose). The result? The 2007 Tampa Bay Devil Rays now sit 17 games below .500 with the worst record in the AL and the schedule doesn’t get any easier. In the second half the Rays play 50 of 75 games against teams with winning records or teams named the New York Yankees.

So what happened? Injuries happened (BJ Upton, Rocco Baldelli, Akinori Iwamura). Idiocy happened (Elijah Dukes). And the rest of the lineup appeared to forget how to score runs. The Rays are 10-21 since the beginning of June. But while the pitching has seemed to be better outside of the usual bullpen implosions, the Rays offensive numbers have actually improved since the beginning of June.

In April (5.04) and May (4.27) the Rays scored 4.65 runs per game. Since the beginning of June that number is 4.69. The team batting average has only fallen from .260 in April/May to .259 in June/July. The power numbers are off from 1.18 HR/game in April/May to 0.88 per game in June/July. However, the teams OBP is up slightly with averages of .324 in April, .332 in May, and .333 in June.

If it is not the offense, than it must be the pitching that has gotten worse…right? Well outside of the three occasions in June in which the bullpen blew a 5+ run lead, the pitching has indeed been better. In April (6.78) and May (5.73) the Rays allowed 6.10 runs per game. Since the beginning of June, the number is down to 5.81. Not good, but definitely better.

So why are the Rays suddenly back to being the laughing stock of baseball? We don’t have an answer. Maybe it is a string of bad luck and are better than they have played the past 6 weeks. Maybe the team was playing above themselves for the first two months of the season and are not a team that should have been playing near-.500 ball. This team will play better, but don’t look for the Rays to sniff .500 again in 2007.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• In an effort to break Carl Crawford out of a slump that saw his average fall to .281, Joe Maddon moved C. C. up a spot to #2 in the lineup. An 0-4 outing on Tuesday was followed by a 3-5 performance on Wedensday.
• We didn’t think we would have to experience a bullpen without Al Reyes until at least August when Reyes could be traded. But we are going to get a sneak preview for at least the next two weeks as Reyes was placed on the 15-day DL with a mild rotator cuff strain. Lefty Jon Switzer was recalled from Durham to fill the roster spot. Yes, the Rays now have two lefties in the bullpen after starting the season without any.
• Since BJ Upton, began his rehab assignment, he has been doing his best Rocco Baldelli impersonation. In the span of less than a week, he has been fatigued, experienced tightness in his injured quad and ran a fever. As a result he has only played in 2.5 out of 6 games and is now not expected back with the Rays until after the All-Star break.
• Tim Corcoran was transferred to the 60-day DL to make room on the 40-man roster for Juan Salas who was reinstated following his 50-game suspension. Salas was optioned to Durham.
• Martin Fennelly may have summed up the first half in one sentence although the numbers above indicate otherwise.

This team has shown an uncanny and unfortunate knack of not doing two things well at the same time. When they hit, they don’t pitch. When they pitch, they don’t hit

The Hangover: Edwin Jackson’s Starts Are Numbered

Royals 9, Devil Rays 4.
Only Edwin Jackson could throw up a stinker and make the Kansas City Royals look like the ’75 Reds.

After Saturday’s loss, Edwin Jackson is now 0-7 in 10 starts and has not won a game in 33 appearances since being acquired from the Dodgers. His last win came on Sept. 26, 2005, as a member of the Dodgers. How much longer can the Rays allow Jackson to go to the mound and give up 6 runs and not be able to complete 4 innings?

Promoting two minor leaguers and inserting them into a major league rotation at the same time is a major shake-up for any team. The major league experience of JP Howell helps ease the transition, but Andy Sonnanstine only has 11 starts above AA. At what point does the team give up on Jackson, move him to the bullpen and insert a third pitcher from Durham into the rotation? If the move is made sooner, rather than later, it will undoubtedly be Jason Hammel who has major league experience.

On Saturday Jackson could not even finish the 4th inning against one of the weakest hitting teams in baseball, who were also missing their only real offensive threat, Mike Sweeney. We can’t imagine Joe Maddon and the Rays will allow more than one or two more outings like that.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Akinori Iwamura who batted leadoff for the first time as a member of the Devil Rays, was removed from the game one inning after a foul ball bounced up and hit him in the eye. He is expected to miss 4-5 games.
• After Saturday’s loss, Edwin Jackson is now 0-7 in 11 starts since being acquired from the Dodgers. His last win came on Sept. 26, 2005.
• Josh Paul was moved to the 60-day DL. A player on the 60-day DL does not count towards the 40-man roster, so when Jon Switzer was activated from the 60-day DL, the move became necessary.
• Interleague play is back next weekend and the Rays pitchers will need to swing the lumber. James Shields is considered the Rays best hitting pitcher and went 3-8 last year.

The Hangover: And The Wins Just Keep On Comin’

• 15 more runs and 14 more hits and the Rays have now won six of eight. Ben Zobrist and Jonny Gomes each homered. It was Gomes’ third of the spring. J. P. Howell staked his claim to the 5th spot in the rotation by pitching 5 innings of 1-run ball giving up 4 hits and striking out 5. The most important number in his stat line was 1, as in 1 walk. Howell’s ability to keep runners off base may just give him the edge over Edwin Jackson.
  
• Carl Crawford is the latest Rays to miss a game with a sore muscle as he sat out last night with a tight groin. Jon Switzer was placed on the DL with tendinitis in his shoulder, virtually guaranteeing that the Rays will start the season without a lefty in the bullpen.
• Here is an interesting (and sobering) attempt at projecting Akinori Iwamura’s numbers based on his Japanese statistics. They looked at six offensive categories for all Japanese hitters currently in the big leagues and averaged the differences between their Japanese stats and their big league stats. Over 600 at bats, Muu-Rah’s numbers would be.287 BA, .340 OBP, .441 SLG, 82 runs, 18 HR and 75 RBI. Well, we already know that Joe Maddon will only be starting Iwamura against righties, so 450 at bats is more realistic. That would translate into 62 runs, 14 HR and 56 RBI. We are not surprised about the drop-off in power, but we were expecting something a little better than Ronnie Belliard.
• We have teased Elijah Dukes at times, and have been critical at times, but we have never wanted him anywhere but the Rays lineup. We have been teased by the minor league numbers and the scouts reports. The idea that some scouts think he could end up being better than any of the three current starters in the outfield, just gives us goose bumps. After reading this sportsIllustrated.com piece, Mr. Dukes may be the one player we are most looking forward to seeing on opening day. Is it wrong that we are secretly hoping that Rocco Baldelli is limited to DH duty the first week?
• One pitcher that hasn’t been mentioned for the closer’s role is the one pitcher who had the job to start 2006, Dan Miceli. Miceli says that throwing in the World Baseball Classic during spring training last year threw of his schedule and could have led to the injury that sidelined him for half the season. This spring he has lost 30 pounds and is working on regaining his velocity. If he does, he will be in the mix for saves.
• The Baseball Thinkfactory has a very in depth look at the 2007 Devil Rays. Its amazing what somebody can put together when they actually do some homework.