[THE HANGOVER] All Evan Longoria Needs Is A Chance, And Now He’s Got It

Tampa Bay Rays (1 day until pitchers and catchers report)

It is what he wanted.

It is what we wanted.

It is not necessarily what the front office wanted.

But now it looks like Evan Longoria will get the opportunity to prove in Spring Training that he belongs in the majors.

And a chance is all the Dirtbag needs. It won’t take much to convince Joe Maddon. And we have a feeling that if Papa Joe can be convinced, it won’t take much to convince Andrew Friedman.

Longoria will not have to hit .400 in Spring Training and he will not have to hit 10 home runs. In fact, we have a feeling that as long as he does not fall flat on his face, he will be named the Rays opening day starter at third base. As much as Papa Joe likes to crunch numbers on his computer, he still loves himself a good ole fashioned baseball player. Evan Longoria is a baseball player. And Maddon will envision that rubbing off on the other players

Maddon is destined to fall in love with the 22 year old. He will see enough in his swing and his glove to know that he is not going to be over-matched at the major league level.

Longoria may struggle at first. But he is too good a hitter to fail. And Papa Joe will see that.

Longoria will get chance to earn spot [Rays Report]

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• ESPN.com takes a closer look at the “revitalized” Carl Crawford. C.C. speaks about having more energy after learning that he was allergic to dairy and wheat products and the subsequent change in his diet. He has also upped his workout regimen and has dropped his body fat from 12% to 8% since December. He also doesn’t hold back in his portrayal of just how miserable 2007 was for the Rays. [ESPN]

“It’s just going to be about playing baseball again, that’s what I’m really excited about this season,” Crawford said at his offseason home. “With all the B.S. that was going on last year, I think we lost focus on the task at hand.” Crawford refers to the ongoing soap opera that featured Elijah Dukes and Delmon Young. Both of the enormously talented players couldn’t stay out of trouble; Dukes with his off-field issues, and Young with his me-first attitude that resulted in him at first walking out on manager Joe Maddon on the second-to-last day of the 2007 regular season. Crawford calls last season a year “he never wants to remember,” and the distractions, at times, were almost unbearable…”That move, for Garza, spoke volumes,” Crawford said. “For the first time I felt like this organization was serious about winning. That’s the reason why I think everybody is excited because everybody sees that.”

• Joe Maddon confirmed something that we had expected, that is five of the seven bullpen spots are already spoken for, all but guaranteeing that Gary Glover will be on the opening day roster. That leaves one spot that will go to a “loser” in the battle for the starting rotation and the final spot will be between Juan Salas, Scott Dohmann and Grant Balfour. [The Heater]
• Shawn Riggans enters Spring Training healthy and understands this may be his last shot at winning a job with the Rays now that John Jaso has been added to the 40-man roster. Marc Topkin refers to Riggans as the “apparent leading candidate for the backup catcher’s job.” This might be a stretch after the recent additions of one veteran catcher in Mike DiFelice and the return of Josh Paul who is familiar with the Rays pitching staff. It is our feeling that if the season started today Paul’s experience and familiarity with the pitching staff will be a better partner to the young Dioner Navarro. [St. Pete Times]
• Marc Topkin reviews all the changes the Rays have made this off-season. [St. Pete Times]
• The Columbus Catfish have been sold and plan to relocate to Bolling Green, Kentucky for the 2009 season. [Ledger-Enquirer]
• Baseball Analysts continues their breakdown of the best baseball players by age. In the age 23 group, BJ Upton comes in at #6, while both Evan Longoria and David Price come in at #5 and #12 respectively. [Baseball Analysts]
• The Ledger ranks the DHs. The Rays’ three-headed monster of Rocco Baldelli, Cliff Floyd and Jonny Gomes is ranked 7th. [The Ledger]
• My Baseball Bias previews the Rays’ Spring Training. [My Baseball Bias]
• Devil Rays Locker gives the Rays front office a B+ for this off-season’s moves. [Devil Rays Locker]

[PROJECTING STATS] Right Field and DH To Be Much Improved In 2008

Bill Chastain has his latest installment of “Around the Horn” in which he previews the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays “positions”. This time it is the outfielders. The most telling statement in the piece is a quote from Joe Maddon in which he states that he would prefer to not use Cliff Floyd in right field very often.

“If Rocco is well, that really relieves a lot of outfield pressure,” Maddon said. “That defines that. Rocco backs up in left, Rocco backs up in center, Rocco DHs, then you feel comfortable with Gomes, because you don’t want to put Cliff out there too often, from what I understand. It just doesn’t sound like the wise thing to do [based on his injury history].”

So let’s say that Gomes and Rocco start every game against a left-handed pitcher, and Floyd starts every game versus a right-handed pitcher, with Gomes and Rocco splitting time against right-handers. In 2007 the Devil Rays played 46 games in which the opposing team’s starting pitcher was left-handed, and 116 games versus right-handed pitchers. If all three players remain healthy all season (I know, I know…just appease me for a second) this suggests that the triumvirate will make the following number of starts in 2008…

Player	vRHP	vLHP	TOTAL
Rocco Baldelli	58	46	104
Cliff Floyd	116	0	116
Jonny Gomes	58	46	104

Of course that can (and probably will) be affected by various leg ailments during the season, but the benefit of this situation is that, in theory, none of the players would have to play in the field for more than approximately 60 games, slightly more for Baldelli and/or Gomes if Maddon does limit Floyd to DH duties.

Just prior to the Cliff Floyd signing, we projected what that would mean for the Rays’ right field production in 2008. In that assessment we excluded Baldelli. Now let’s project all three players stats, based on their averages from the past three seasons. In the case of Floyd we will use his averages versus right-handed pitchers and for Baldelli and Gomes we will weight the averages based on the expected number of starts versus lefties and righties.

Player	BA	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	OPS
Rocco Baldelli	.270	17	59	.317	.484	.801
Cliff Floyd	.281	20	67	.368	.472	.840
Jonny Gomes	.258	21	57	.353	.491	.844

What is interesting about splitting the at bats up in this manner is how similar the stat lines are for all three players. Outside of Baldelli’s OBP, the numbers are nearly identical. When we originally started playing with these numbers, we assumed that in the long run, we could see Baldelli stealing at bats from Gomes, but the numbers show that Gomes would actually post slightly better numbers than the other two.

In the end it appears as though we can expect approximately 58 home runs, 183 RBI and a .829 OPS from two positions. In 2007 Devil Rays’ right fielders and DHs did not fair so well…

Position	BA	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	OPS
DH (2007)	.241	16	63	.329	.378	.707
RF (2007)	.281	17	95	.314	.421	.736
RF/DH (2007)	.262	33	158	.321	.400	.721
RF/DH (2008 Proj.)	.270	58	183	.347	.482	.829

This is not a knock on Delmon Young. We fully expect that Young would have improved his stat line in 2008 had he been manning right field for the Rays. Rather we are just trying to guestimate the level of improvement that the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays RF/DH will have over the 2007 Tampa Bay Devil Rays RF/DH. And if the players remain healthy and perform to their norms, the improvement will be significant.

Or more likely Baldelli will pull a hamstring while sleeping and will miss most of the season. Yeah. Nevermind.

Around the Horn: Outfielders [DevilRays.com]

[THE HANGOVER] Tampa Bay Rays Reward James Shields With Long-Term Deal

Tampa Bay Rays (21 days until pitchers and catchers report)
Yesterday the Tampa Bay Rays announced that they had reached an agreement with James Shields on a contract that could be for as long as seven years and worth just under $38 million. With incentives the deal could reach as much as $44 million. The last three years of the deal are team options which gives the team a fair amount of insurance in case of an injury or an unexpected drop in performance.

This is a great deal for the Rays. They get a young proven pitcher for a below-market price and do not have to worry about going to arbitration with him in two years. But, despite what many are saying this is not a deal about retaining the young talent. Shields was going to be here for the next five years without a new deal. And projecting Shields and the team ahead to the 2013 and 2014 seasons is a crap-shoot at best. What kind of pitcher will he be six years from now? What will the team look like six years from now? Nobody knows the answers to those questions.

No. This is not about retaining the young talent. Marc Lancaster is the only writer, whether it be professional, blogger or message board specialist, we have seen yet that “gets it”.

The Rays didn’t have to do this deal, which guarantees Shields at least $11.25 million during the next four seasons and could max out at $44 million with options and incentives. Shields would have been under Tampa Bay’s control through 2012 anyway, and the cost to keep him wasn’t likely to reach outrageous levels even if he continued to improve once he entered his arbitration years.

But the Rays saw an opportunity to make a statement after Shields had his agent contact them last fall to gauge their interest in a long-term deal, even though he had just pitched his first full season in the majors. Here was the rare player with enough faith in the organization that he was willing to surrender his first two years of free agency.

Rays executive vice president Andrew Friedman said he liked the message that rewarding Shields with a long-term deal so early in his career would send to Tampa Bay’s young players. The Rays certainly wouldn’t mind if some of the team’s more established players, the rest of baseball and their fan base picked up on it, too.

This deal does send a message. Not a message to the fans that the Rays will do whatever it takes to keep the young talent. If that was the case why isn’t Scott Kazmir under a long-term contract yet? He is due to be a free agent before Shields. Or what about Carl Crawford, who is set to become a free agent in three years, two years sooner than Shields would have hit the market. No. The real message is about rewarding the younger players that perform well.

Yesterday in “The Hangover“, and the day before in the comments section, we speculated that the new contract would most likely only give Shields a slight bump in salary in 2008 and 2009, the two seasons prior to when he would be arbitration eligible. Teams do not have to open the wallets in a players first three seasons, no matter how well they perform on the field. The Rays showed they are willing to reward the younger players. A move that will be noticed by other players within the Rays organization and hopefully by players in other organizations. The Rays did not have to give Shields much more than $0.5-0.7 for the next two seasons. Players that sign long-term deals prior to their arbitration years almost never make more than that in those seasons. Shields, however, will make $2.5 million combined the next two years.

To us that is the biggest surprise of the contract. In the grand scheme of things, it does not seem like much to us, but to a player like Shields, who was not a “bonus baby” first-round draft pick, a raise of more than 150% is a big deal.

A big deal that the team hopes won’t go unnoticed by the other players. Perform well and we will reward you.

Shields’ deal could be worth $44 million. [TampaBay.com]
Shields deal sends message [TBO]

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Gary Shelton calls Stuart Sternberg the “MVP of the most impressive offseason the Rays have had since, well, ever”. We are not sure why everybody is surprised by the moves made this off-season. The Rays are doing exactly what they have always said they would do. Last off-season, the Royals gave $55 million to Gil Meche. Many fans wondered why the Rays weren’t willing to go and sign a free agent pitcher like Meche. And while Meche did post a 3.67 ERA, he finished 9-13 for a team that won more games (69) than the Rays did (66), and finished in last place. Money well spent? Shields finished 12-8 and the Rays just rewarded him with a $38 million contract. In other words, a player like Meche would not have made a lick of difference on the 2007 Tampa Bay Rays, but the team would have wasted money. Would he make a difference on the 2008 Rays? Maybe. He has won more than 11 games only once in his career. But what about 2009 when players like David Price and Wade Davis and Jake McGee are ready? There is a good chance at least one if not two of those players will be better pitchers as rookies than Gil Meche will ever be. Singing Meche last year would have been a waste of money and a waste of a spot in the rotation. [St. Pete Times]
• The Baseball Authority takes a look at the James Shields deal and believes that spending more than $40 million on a young player with promise is much smarter than spending $40 million on a free agent pitcher with limited upside such as Carlos Silva. We whole-heartedly agree. We have broken down the numbers before. Free agent pitchers rarely live up to their contracts. [The Baseball Authority]
• Epic Carnival believes that the James Shields deal is yet another example of why the Rays are moving in the right direction. [Epic Carnival]
• The final 2007 payrolls have been tabulated and yes, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays still had the lowest payroll in baseball at $31.8 million. That number is slightly higher than most figures that have been quoted for the D-Rays payroll, as it also includes signing bonuses, incentives, and extra money Jonny Gomes received dancing at Mons Venus. Ten teams were over $100 million including the Yankees ($218.3 million) and the Red Sox ($155.4 million). [SI.com]
• Fake Teams takes a look at Carlos Pena and wonders what we can expect from him in 2008. The
  final verdict is about 37 home runs. Seems like a reasonable number. [Fake Teams]
• USA Today compares the short histories of baseball’s last four expansion franchises. [USA Today]
• Mad Friars also takes a look at the four most recent expansion franchises and the roads they have taken to success (or lack thereof). [Mad Friars]
• DRays Bay takes a look back at how the Rays fared in the 2001-2005 drafts. [DRays Bay]
• The Tampa Bay Rays 2008 FanFest will be held on Feb.23 at Tropicana Field. Regular season tickets will also go on sale that day. [DevilRays.com]

[THE HANGOVER] Rays Acquire Third Baseman, Hope To Magically Make Him A ‘Super-Duper-Utility’ Guy

Tampa Bay Rays (27 days until pitchers and catchers report)

On Thursday, the Tampa Bay Rays acquired Willy Aybar and Chase Fontaine for Jeff Ridgway. Aybar, who will be 25 on opening day, missed all of 2007 due to a wrist injury suffered in Spring Training and a stint in a substance abuse program. Previously, he spent parts of 2005 and 2006 at the big league level, accumulating a .292-5-40 line (.803 OPS) in 105 games with the Braves and Dodgers.

Several outlets have reported that Aybar is the “super-utility” player that the Rays sought, including the St. Pete Times and the Bradenton Herald. This is curious as there is absolutely zero indication that he can play any position other than third base and short stop. Aybar is a third baseman by trade and occasionally played second base in the minors, with only one game played elsewhere (shortstop). And while he has shown a decent glove at second base, he is below-average at best at third base with a range factor (2.34) below the league average and 10 errors in 80 career games.

While the Rays may envision Aybar as their “super-utility” player down the road, the more likely scenario is that the Rays have acquired their opening day third baseman, and this is definitely nothing to get excited about. Aybar is a weak-hitting (45.2 ABs/HR as a pro), poor-defensive, shitty base stealing (50-103 SBs as a pro) third baseman…who hasn’t played organized baseball in over a year…is coming off a stint in rehab and an injured wrist. In other words Aybar has two months to get back into baseball shape and learn 4-5 new positions. This will be fun.

P.S. Aybar is out of options. He will be on the opening day roster.

Rays acquire Aybar from Braves [MLB]
Rays land utilityman; arbitration time looms [TampaBay.com]
Rays get super-utility player, solid bat in Aybar [Bradenton Herald]

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Future Considerations profiles the “other” player in the trade, Chase Fontaine. Even though Minor League Ball thinks his name sounds like that of a 1950s musical star, we prefer “1970s Porn Star” [Future Considerations]
  
• Scott Kazmir does not expect a deal to be reached with the Rays prior to the noon deadline. [TampaBay.com]

Kazmir said he would prefer to have his contract situation resolved, but understood going through arbitration was part of the business side of the game. Though hearings don’t take place until February, the Rays have a team policy to cease negotiations once salary figures are filed, which takes place at noon Friday.

• The Jonny Gomes deal has been finalized. Gomes will make $1.275 million in 2008 with a chance to up that total to $1.3 million with 500 plate appearances. With Gomes’ new contract, the Rays will now have 11 players in 2008 that will make at least $1 million. [TampaBay.com]
• Stacy Long takes a look at team payrolls from the past seven seasons. To no surprise the Rays have had the lowest average payroll over that span, including an average player salary of $1.1 million in 2007. [Talk Alabama]
• The St. Pete City Council has set three dates in which the public will be able to voice their opinions concerning the proposed $450 million stadium to be built along the St. Pete waterfront. Here is hoping for the sake of the City Council, that the Heckler does not show up. HEY COUNCILMANNNN! THIS IDEA IS TERRIBLEEEE DON’T EVEN THINK ABOUT TRYING TO BUILD THIS NEW STADIUMMMMMM. MY VOICE WILL NEVER TRAVEL AS WELL IN AN OUTDOOR STADIUMMMMMM. HOT DOGGGGGG! [TBO]
• The St. Pete City Council voted 7-1 to request proposals for the New Stadium proposed by the Tampa Bay Rays. This does not mean the stadium has been approved. Only that the city is willing to see what ideas different developers can come up with and how much money each of those developers thinks the project will generate for the area…In other news, water is wet. [TampaBay.com]
• One blogger ranks the pitchers in the Rays organization (Matt Garza is #1?) and profiles Andy Sonnanstine. [Variables Don’t; Constants Aren’t]

[THE HANGOVER] John Jaso And Dioner Navarro Would Make An Ideal Platoon In 2009

Tampa Bay Rays (28 days until pitchers and catchers report)

Rays Anatomy points to a Jim Callis chat at ESPN.com in which Callis believes the Rays catcher in 2010 will be John Jaso. We are big believers in Jaso, a 12th-round selection in the 2003 draft, and eagerly await the opportunity to see him play at Durham this year.

While there is little chance we will see Jaso at the big league level in 2008, if Navarro fails to step-up his game offensively and defensively this season, a Navi-Jaso platoon is not out of the question for 2009. We have argued in the past that Navarro should become a full-time right-handed hitter. In the past three seasons combined, Navarro has posted an .804 OPS right-handed compared to a .635 OPS left-handed. In fact, in one two-game stretch this past season, Navarro was forced to bat right-handed against a right-handed pitcher due to a sore wrist. In one of those games, Navi collected a career-high four hits.

Navi may be perfectly capable of being a successful big league switch-hitter, but the process is much more difficult for a catcher. While other fielders get to spend a large amount of time in the cage, honing their hitting skills, catchers need to work on blocking pitches, footwork on throws to second, sitting in on pitchers meetings, catching pitchers during their bullpen sessions, scouting other team’s hitters, work on calling a game and having their heads rubbed for luck. So the amount of time spent on the offensive aspect of their game is already reduced. Now take that and cut it in half for a switch-hitter as Navarro need to do everything twice…once from each side of the plate.

Jaso, a left-handed hitter, has battled injuries his entire minor league career, but that has not kept him from posting a .300 batting average and .800 OPS each of the past four seasons. He has also posted a very impressive 208:178 strikeout-to-walk ratio during his minor league career. In part due to injuries and in part due to the slow maturation of catchers in general, Jaso has moved through the system slowly but methodically. He has never been promoted in-season and has spent a full season at each level.

Jaso will most likely spend the 2008 season at AAA Durham. If this season is similar to the rest, statistically, and Jaso can remain healthy, he will be given every opportunity to win a job with the 2009 Tampa Bay Rays.

Jaso, The Trio and Other Rays News and Notes [Rays Anatomy]

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• The Heater is reporting that the Rays are close to a deal with Jonny Gomes. The deal would be for approximately $1.25 million, with incentives. If the numbers are accurate, that would be about $500,000 more than we predicted. [TampaBay.com]
• Armchair GM takes a look at the Rays Top 10 Prospects (according to Baseball America) and looks at each player a little closer. [ArmchairGM]

…most importantly, Baseball America has ranked Tampa’s Minor League Organization number one in all of baseball in each of the past two seasons. Three of their four top prospects are pitchers, and if even two of them make an impact, the Rays will become very good, very quickly. Combined with their already formidable group of young position players (the Rays fielded the second youngest overall team in the majors last season), they should soon be able to hang with the likes of the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees.

• Bill Chastain continues his examination of the Rays. Today’s “position” is the middle infield, featuring Akinori Iwamura, Jason Bartlett and Ben Zobrist, whom Joe Maddon says is the backup middle infielder as of now. [DevilRays.com]
• Akinori Iwamura spent the off-season in Japan working with his former infield coach of the Yakult Swallows on his transition to second base. Muu-Rah has set four goals for 2008…He wants to hit .300, score 100 runs, remain healthy and play October baseball. Finally…somebody that get’s it. [TBO]
• “Ten pitching seasons to forget”. Or as we like to call it…”The 2006 Tampa Bay Devil Rays”. Seriously though. How is there not one single Devil Ray on this list? Not even Ryan Rupe from 2001? In their defense, Jae Seo and Casey Fossum from last season did not pitch enough innings to qualify. And if not for the 4-hit shutout, Edwin Jackson most likely is on the list (his numbers appear to just miss the cutoff). We went back and looked…We were shocked to see that Fossum and Seo only made ten starts apiece. Twenty starts total? Felt more like 50. In fact they were both out of the rotation by June. Wow. And to think the Rays were actually flirting with .500 during that time period. [The Hardball Times]

[THE HANGOVER] The Rays Drop $2.9 Million On Seventh Inning Pitcher

Tampa Bay Rays (29 days until pitchers and catchers report)

The Rays came to an agreement with Dan Wheeler on a one year contract for $2.875 million, avoiding arbitration. The salary will give Wheeler the 5th highest salary on the Rays in 2008, behind only Carl Crawford ($5.25 million), Troy Percival ($4 million) and both Scott Kazmir and Carlos Pena whose salaries have yet to be settled, but will certainly be greater than $2.875 million. In 2007, only four players on the opening day roster had salaries greater than $1 million, including Crawford ($4 million), Casey Fossum ($2.2 million), Ty Wigginton ($1.3 million) and Jae Seo ($1.2 million)*.

Wheeler’s deal leaves the Rays with three arbitration-eligible players (Carlos Pena, Scott Kazmir and Jonny Gomes). The remaining arbitration-eligible cases must be resolved by Friday or the player’s 2008 salaries will be settled by an arbitrator.

With three salaries yet to be determined, the Tampa Bay Rays opening day payroll (40-man roster) now projects to be just under $41 million.

*Both Pena and Reyes had base salaries less than $1 million but earned incentives during the season that pushed their salary above $1 million.

RHP Dan Wheeler and Rays agree to 1-year contract. [Yahoo! Sports]

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Rays of Light breaks down six things that must happen for the Rays to post their first winning season in 2008. The biggest point is the first and one that we believe too many people are ignoring when they speak of the Rays new and improved bullpen. That is: Troy Percival and Al Reyes are both old and have a history of injuries. To expect a full season out of both is expecting a lot. Maybe too much. [Rays of Light]

There’s no doubt that Al Reyes and Troy Percival can throw, but there’s also no doubt that at ages 37 and 38 respectively and each with a history of injury, they are much closer to their last pitch than their first.

• Baseball Prospectus lists Dioner Navarro as one of their 2008 “Breakout Candidates”. [Baseball Prospectus]

Navarro has been a completely different player since being traded to the Devil Rays in 2006. At the time of the deal, Navarro had a career OBP of .360. With Tampa Bay, his OBP is .292. That kind of drop-off at 22 and 23 is alarming, and deserves investigation. When you look deeper, you see that Navarro’s decline has been concentrated in his strikeout rate, up about 15 percent, with a concomitant drop in his walk rate… Navarro was one of the worst players in baseball in the first half of 2007, batting .177/.238/.254, with a 36/13 K/BB in 229 plate appearances. To the Rays’ credit, they didn’t bury him, allowing him to remain the regular catcher throughout the season. They were rewarded with a significant improvement in the second half: .285/.340/.475, with a better K/BB (31/17 in 209 PA) and the best power of his career…As a switch-hitting catcher with good defensive skills and the ability to post a .360 OBP, however, he’s a tremendous asset. Navarro, still just 24 years old, is in line to be an above-average player, a five-win guy, for the next three seasons.

• Inside Vandy is running a 32-athlete “tournament” to find Vanderbilt’s biggest star. Why do we care here at RI? Because not only is there a “David Price Bracket”, but Pedro Alvarez is the #1 seed in the David Price Bracket. Alvarez is a power-hitting third baseman that may very well be the Rays selection as the top pick in the draft this June. [Inside Vandy]

[THE HANGOVER] Carlos Pena Tells Us Nothing…Some Seem To Think It Is Newsworthy

Tampa Bay Rays (30 days until pitchers and catchers report)

Just the links today.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• We have updated our Meta-Analysis of Top Prospects to now include the “Cursory Top Prospect Post” from Rays of Light. Their post is worth a read if just to read the reasoning for making the list at the beginning of the post. They have summed up our feelings about these lists perfectly and is exactly why we did not make a list of our own and instead created the Meta-Analysis. [Rays of Light]
• The Heater is reporting that Carlos Pena is still awaiting word on the progress of negotiations for a new deal. If a deal is not reached by Friday the Rays will cease negotiating and will let an arbitrator decide Pena’s 2008 salary. While we expect a 1-year deal to be reached with Scott Kazmir prior to Friday’s deadline, we would be surprised if the Rays can reach a deal with Pena, who is represented by Scott Boras. The team also continues to negotiate with Dan Wheeler and Jonny Gomes [TampaBay.com]
• St. Pete officials submitted a request for proposals to the St. Pete City Council. The request lays out what the officials envision for the renovation of Tropicana Field and lays out exactly what they are seeking in developers that would like to head the renovation. [TampaBay.com]
• Bucs Dugout has a post comparing the current Pirate’s situation to the 2006 Tampa Bay Devil Rays. The post is an excellent review of the moves that Andrew Friedman and Co. have made since taking control of the team and how the Rays went from a laughing stock to being on the verge of greatness mediocrity. [Bucs Dugout]
• Joe Henderson tries to convince his readers that the Rays are on the cusp of being a competitive team. [TBO]

Best-case scenario: If things break right, the Rays could challenge Toronto for third place in the American League East. That won’t trigger many champagne showers, but after what we’ve seen here for years, it’ll do for now.

The defense up the middle should be vastly improved. Moving Akinori Iwamura to second base fills one of those spots with a potential gold glove. Shortstop Jason Bartlett, acquired in the Delmon Young trade, will get to balls that would have scooted well past Brendan Harris last season.

• The Rays have hired a firm to study the impact the proposed Rays stadium will have on local parking. [DevilRays.com]

Over the next several months, RK&K will work with the City of St. Petersburg, its residents and the Rays to analyze the relationship between existing parking locations and ballpark entry and exit routes, forecast downtown traffic volumes during event conditions, and engage the community to determine specific areas of concern. RK&K will recommend methods to ensure that adequate parking will be available for both the ballpark and its downtown environs. RR&K will also help create an effective traffic management plan to minimize congestion and provide ease of entry and exit to the ballpark.

[THE HANGOVER] Five To Compete For Final Two Spots In Rotation

Tampa Bay Rays (34 days until pitchers and catchers report)

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• With three spots in the rotation spoken for (Scott Kazmir, James Shields, Matt Garza), Joe Maddon stated that five pitchers will compete for the final two spots including Edwin Jackson, Andy Sonnanstine, Jeff Niemann, Jason Hammel and JP Howell. Obviously Jackson, Sonnanstine and Hammel have the edge as the imcumbants and Howell has experience, but don’t rule out Jeff Niemann. He will be 25 and he has 239 innings under his belt as a minor leaguer. He and Jackson have the biggest upside and Jackson so far has been crap-tastic. If he was 22 the team may worry about feeding him to the lions. And he is far enough removed from his shoulder problems that arm strength should no longer be a factor. Now it is just a matter of whether or not the team thinks he can get the job done. If not, it won’t be long before we see him in the bullpen. [TampaBay.com]
• The Tampa Bay Rays have until January 18 to work out contracts with Scott Kazmir, Carlos Pena, Jonny Gomes and Dan Wheeler. All four players are arbitration eligible and next Friday is the deadline for both sides to submit offers for the arbitration hearing. As an organization, the Rays have a policy of “File-and-go”, meaning they will negotiate with a player once the figures have been submitted to the arbitrator. That policy seems sound when dealing with a player like Josh Paul last season or Dan Wheeler this season, but it is a big gamble when dealing with young super-duper-stars like Kazmir and Pena. The Rays risk alienating their young stars as teams are forced to present an argument to the arbitrator based on all the reasons why that player is not worth the money he is asking for. That being said, Andrew Friedman stated on Thusday that he would be surprised if the team did not reach deals with all four players. [The Ledger]

“We would prefer to avoid a hearing,” Friedman said. “It’s in place to resolve differences, and it’s there in the event we can’t. But we hope to be able to avoid it and reach a resolution. If we get to Friday and file numbers, we’re going to a hearing. It’s our policy.”

• The Rays are expected to make a decision on whether or not Evan Longoria will be the opening day starter prior to Spring Training, which gives the team about one month to come to a conclusion. Interestingly, Joe Maddon who has repeatedly stated in the past that he makes few roster decisions based on Spring Training performance and that he prefers to judge a player based on what he did the previous season, does not approve of the team’s choice to make a decision prior to Spring Training. [TBO]

“I’m into seeing it play out,” Maddon said. “I’ve often said it and I’ll say it again: I’m really not a big proponent of evaluating players during spring training, but when you have so many close calls, sometimes you have to rely upon that.”

• In addition to Evan Longoria, other players not on the 40-man roster that will be invited to Spring Training include Reid Brignac, Wade Davis, Jake McGee and Chris Mason. I predict blue hair for Mason. [TBO]
• On Wednesday night, over 300 people gathered at Tropicana Field to hold a public discussion about the Tampa Bay Rays proposal to build a new stadium along the St. Pete waterfront and redevelop the land that is currently home to the Trop. Two people protested outside the stadium. [TampaBay.com]
• The Rays announced a number of changes to their coaching, training and scouting staffs. [DevilRays.com]
• 365 Days of Dough, Rays, and Me breaks down one set of statistical projections for the Rays. [365 Days of Dough, Rays and Me]
• Spring Training tickets went on sale this morning. [Tampa Bay 10]

[THE HANGOVER] Rays May Try To Fill Roster Holes With Other Teams’ Non-Tender Trash

Tampa Bay Rays (65 days until pitchers and catchers report)
Tomorrow (Dec. 12) is the non-tender deadline in baseball. Players with less than six years of experience must be offered contracts by tomorrow, or those players will automatically become free agents.

This is an important date for the Rays on two fronts. Rotoworld predicts, as we did in our 40-man roster projection, that the only player the Rays will non-tender is Grant Balfour. First of all, the Rays roster currently stands at 38, so there is no immediate need to open up spots for pending moves. Balfour, on the other hand, is arbitration eligible. He made $415,000 in 2007 and would likely expect a raise to the neighborhood $750,000. With the recent additions to the bullpen, Balfour is likely not to have a roster spot, he has little trade value and is out of options, so he cannot be sent to the minors.

The non-tender deadline is also an important date in which the Rays may be able to find players to fill roster spots that remain open. This is one reason why the Rays have yet to pull the trigger on a trade for a left-handed bat or a back-up catcher.

Of the players that Rotoworld predicts are likely to be non-tendered, includes catcher Miguel Olivo of the Marlins. Olivo hit .237-16-60, while making $2 million in 2007. He is arbitration eligible and on the free agent market he would likely cost the Rays between $2.5 million and $3.5 million in 2008. While he may not be the veteran presence behind the plate and on the bench that the Rays prefer, he would come at half the price of a player like Michael Barrett, has considerable major league experience and and the Rays would not have to surrender any prospects that would be required to trade for Barrett or another catcher.

A cheap left-handed bat off the non-tender heap? How about Ben Broussard from Seattle. He is a first baseman by trade, but did play a dozen games in right in 2007. He hit .270-7-29 in 99 games last season while making $3.55 million, but has shown in the past to have 20-25 home run power. His $4 million price tag through arbitration (his likely going price on the free agent market) may be a little steep for the Rays, but again, this is a proven major league commodity that would come to the Rays without having to surrender any pieces such as Edwin Jackson.

Non-tenders and trade talk [Rotoworld]

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Charlie Montoyo, manager of the Durham Bulls, and his wife, recently gave birth to their second child, who is suffering from life-threatening medical complications. The Montgomery Biscuits franchise (for whom Montoyo formerly managed) has set up a fund to raise money to help cover the medical expenses of the family. If you would like to help out, please click on the link and scroll to the bottom of the page. Our hearts go out to the Montoyo family. [The Alexander Montoyo Fund]
  
• Marc Lancaster takes a look at the Rays 2008 right fielders and examines the questions that surround Rocco Baldelli, Jonny Gomes and the left-handed bat that has yet to be acquired. Quotes from Joe Maddon do not resonate with a lot of confidence in those two players. [TBO]

“Rocco’s the issue; we’re still not exactly sure what he’s going to be able to do yet,” Rays manager Joe Maddon said last week. “Once we’re able to answer that question, we can be a little bit more specific, I think. Jon Gomes, I still have a lot of faith in him – I think, specifically, Jon against left-handed pitching does a nice job.”

• Baird Helgeson wrote 1,000 words (we had one of the interns count them) about what will happen to the home run balls that are hit into the bay over the right field fence at the proposed stadium for the Tampa Bay Rays. Seriously. 1,000 words about 10-15 balls and their impact on the environment. 1,000 words about how people at the St. Pete Sailing Center are worried about the 1 in 10 Billion chance that one of these 10-15 balls each season will hit them in the noggin’. I feel dumber for having read Mr. Helgeson’s piece. [TBO]
  
• Joe Maddon helped cook, and will assist in serving meals to local area shelters this week as part of “Thanks-mas”. [TBO]
• David Chalk, who covers the Devil Rays over at Bugs & Cranks, has been traded along with five others in a blogger blockbuster, in which B&C received Bill Simmons. Clearly, Bugs & Cranks is going for it this year, as Simmons is clearly past his prime, and doesn’t have much left in the tank. If B&C doesn’t win this year or next, they will regret this move for years to come. [Bugs & Cranks]

[2008 ROSTER] The Professor’s Take On "Jake Takes On The Winter Meetings"

For the record: I have decided to break down this post written by Jacob Larsen of DRays Bay even before reading it, having no idea if I will agree or disagree with the points that have been made…

Jake Larsen of DRays Bay takes on the role of Tampa Bay Rays GM and tells us the moves he would try to make at the winter meetings. We will take a look at each of these suggestions and offer our thoughts on whether or not the moves are good for the Rays and/or if the moves are even possible.

Jake first looks at the pool of free agents and picks five players that the Rays should be targeting as well as 5 players to avoid.

Ron Mahay, LHP

• [Jake’s Take] it’s evident that Kurt Birkins and Jeff Ridgway don’t fit in a bullpen with names like Troy Percival, Al Reyes, Dan Wheeler and Juan Salas(his last name is a palindrome). Ron Mahay would be yet another “veteran presence” in the bullpen. Only risk is that he’s a Type B Free Agent and he’d cost us a 2nd round pick in the upcoming draft.
• [The Professor’s Take] Would be a strong upgrade over the leftys that are available in-house. Mahay made $1.25 million last season, which means he might be had for $2 million, which would be reasonable. Unfortunately, the Yankees may also be interested, and we are skeptical of giving up a second round pick. The Rays recent second round picks have included Will Kline, Josh Butler, Chris Mason, Reid Brignac and James Houser. Would the Rays trade one of those players for Ron Mahay? Not likely. For a team that builds through their farm system, that is too big a big price for a lefty specialist. verdict: DON’T SIGN

Tony Clark, 1B

• [Jake’s Take] Positive Veteran Leader who still can hit for power
• [The Professor’s Take] This is true, BUT, Clark is strictly a 1B/DH. While the Rays do need a left handed bat and Clark would be a great power threat, he would be strictly a DH with the Rays. That will take significant at bats away from Rocco Baldelli and Jonny Gomes. Also, while Clark may be willing to be a role player or platoon DH, would he be willing to do that with the Rays? And will the Rays be willing to give Clark $1.5-2 million to be a part-time player? verdict: WON’T SIGN

Michael Barrett, C

• [Jake’s Take] Decent hitter, calls a good game and will stand up for his pitchers when they give him a good effort. Yeah, sounds like he’s Crash Davis Incarnate
• [The Professor’s Take] A Type A free agent. And while the Rays top pick is protected, Barrett would cost the Rays their second round pick. Again, would the Rays trade one of the above mentioned players (ie. Reid Brignac) for a backup catcher? Not a chance in hell. Low payroll teams have to be smart and that is not a smart move. verdict: DON’T SIGN

Andruw Jones, CF

• [Jake’s Take] 1 year rental/shock the baseball world…why not bite the bullet and prove to Boras that we’re willing to take the risk and spend money? We sign Jones to an incentive-laiden contract with a possible option for a 2nd year, we impress Boras who needs to be proven that we’re “in it to win it” and we may be allowed to sign Pena to a deal that we won’t have to pay through the nose.
• [The Professor’s Take] We admire the wishing, but this is absolutely ridiculous. First of all Scott Boras has already said that Jones will not accept a 1-year deal. Then consider that the Rays would have to pay $15 million annually for a player that has only hit above .265 ONCE in the last seven seasons, and posted a line of .222-26-94 last season. Don’t get us wrong. Jones is a talent. But the Rays have other needs. If the Rays are going to drop $15 million on one player, why not grab a starting pitcher (or two). verdict: PIPE DREAM

Kazuo Fukumori, RHP

• [Jake’s Take] We need to continue slowly adding international talent and continue to improve our bullpen. It’s bad enough that Boston and the Yankees seem to have partnerships with Japanese baseball teams, but keeping Japanese fans in tune with Rays baseball with Aki and Fukomori will prevent those 2 from taking over the Japanese market
• [The Professor’s Take] We have no idea about the talent. Our concern is that Japanese relievers are now the soup-of-the-day after the success of Hideki Okajima of the Red Sox. The Mets fell for this after the success of Ichiro when they thought Tsuyoshi Shinjo was just as good if not better. And please keep in mind that the Yankees are the Yankees and the Red Sox are the Red Sox. Even in Japan. The Rays may want a piece of that market, but they cannot compete on the same level as those two teams. As for Fukumori, there appears to be a number of teams interested, so it depends on how high the bidding goes. And in the meantime, the Rays’ need for a lefty trumps this. verdict: MAYBE

players to avoid: Darin Erstad, Trever Miller, Bartolo Colon, David Eckstein and Eric Gagne.

• [The Professor’s Take] Please, please stay away from Erstad, Eckstein and Gagne. Colon? Not for the price, but we think he still has gas in the tank. Miller is the interesting one. Miller is a LHP that had a big 2006, but came back to earth in 2007. Again, if that price is not too much, he could be cheaper than Mahay.

Jake then proposed three trades…

SP Edwin Jackson, RP Al Reyes and OF Jonny Gomes to Seattle for C Jeff Clement and PTBNL

• [Jake’s Take] We all need to give up the thoughts that Edwin Jackson will be a future starter in the Rays rotation…Clement would give us a dynamic young duo of catchers, which would give Dioneer the idea that he needs to speed up his development and “work out” a bit more often. Clement, due to his massive body, always could learn 1B on the job and get some ABs at DH. We’d be less likely to have free outs in our line-up with the possibility of Clement in the line-up
• [The Professor’s Take] We like Clement and have made our feelings known about Jackson in the past (he is a quitter). Two problems. Seattle would probably do this deal without the Rays including Reyes (unless the Rays want an extra prospect tossed in) and we are not sure the Rays would open the season with such a young starting rotation and young starting catcher and not have a veteran catcher on the roster. verdict: WE LIKE

SP J.P. Howell to Arizona for RF Carlos Quentin [Quentin has since been traded to the White Sox]

• [Jake’s Take] Carlos is coming off a shoulder surgery(to his non-throwing arm) and the Diamondbacks are hard-pressed for young pitching. J.P. seems destined to become a better p
  itcher on a NL team than the AL, so why not fill a hole of ours with a player that was a top prospect in a very prestigous farm system but has basically lost his luster by default and D-Backs crowded OF? If not JP straight up, offer them Hammel and JP and ask for Neigborgall in addition to Quentin.
• [The Professor’s Take] Quentin was traded for a top first base prospect who was in single-A, so it is difficult to gauge if this deal would have been acceptable to the D-Backs, but we would have pulled the trigger. verdict: GOOD DEAL, CAN’T HAPPEN

SP Wade Davis and OF John Matulia for the rights to SP Mark Prior

• [Jake’s Take] Initially, in an idea that I gave to RJ, I said Wade Davis for Prior. However, Hendry probably would be mocked for such a random trade for a pitcher that Cub fans have never heard of (even though they have a WR posing as a pitcher in their farm system). I added his idea to the offer, just for the fact that Hendry loves “toolsy” OFers and the fact that Matulia was a draftee of Wilkens(who drafted John’s baby bro, I believe, for the Cubs).
• [The Professor’s Take] This one must be a joke, or Jake was getting really tired or desperate for ideas. NO, NO, NO…NEVER, NEVER, NEVER. First off, the Rays are giving up one of the Top 20 prospects in baseball for the rights to Prior? And let’s say the Cubs did turn down Davis for Prior. Who in their right mind actually thinks that the Cubs are all of the sudden going to say “yes” when the Rays include an outfielder that hit .257/.312/.352 in SINGLE-A!?!?! We know Prior is a talent. And we know that sometimes a team like the Rays needs to take risks, but those risks have to be calculated. A team like the Yankees can take a risk on a Mark Prior, because if he doesn’t work, nobody cares about the money lost. If the Rays give Prior $5 million for 2008, and he doesn’t pitch, that is a huge blow to the payroll and the roster. verdict: WE ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT IF JAKE WAS SERIOUS.