The Hangover: Finally! Jae Seo Gets Some Run Support

Devil Rays 13, Mariners 12.
What is the over/under these days for runs needed by the Rays offense when Jae Seo is on the mound? 13 sounds about right. It is sad when your team has a 12-4 lead after 5 innings and you are still scared. Sure enough, Seo had another typical Jae Seo outing in which he allowed 7 runs in 5+ innings on 13…count ’em…THIRTEEN hits. How did he only give up 7 runs? But hey, Seo did look good in that start against Toronto….which is of course what we will still be saying in October…”Jae Seo…he sure looked good in that start against Toronto.”

On a side note, remember when the Rays were one of the last two teams in the majors to commit an error this season? Neither do we. The Rays committed two more errors last night and now lead the majors with 45. Those 45 errors have led to a major league-leading 33 unearned runs. It is bad enough when your pitching staff has the highest ERA and allows the most earned runs all on their own. Add to that a shaky defense and the most unearned runs and all of the sudden the offense needs to score 13 runs to win ballgames.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Elijah Dukes sat again yesterday afternoon, but the Rays have stated that he will be in the lineup in the White Sox series this weekend.
• It is true, right now the Rays appear stuck with Rocco Baldelli and Elijah Dukes but eventually the injuries and the troubles will pass over enough that the Rays will be able to move one or both.
• The Rays finally made it official and placed Josh Paul on the DL with a sprained elbow. the team recalled Shawn Riggans from Durham. Paul could miss 6 weeks. At 26, Riggans needs to take advantage of the next month and a half and prove that he can be a major league catcher. In the Spring, Riggans hit well (.316), but base stealers were successful on 10 of 11 attempts.
• Ahhhh…hindsight. All of the sudden everybody wants to talk about how the Rays should have traded Rocco Baldelli. Yeah, and I should have bought Google at $85.
• You can just see Toby Hall biting his lip in this piece as the former Rays catcher prepares to play his former team for the first time. It is just a matter of time before he says something stupid.

[THE HANGOVER] We Knew The Bullpen Was Bad, But Geez

Something smells…Let’s see if we can figure out what it is…

Yesterday, somebody in the comments section asked about the number of runners inherited that Shawn Camp had allowed to score this year. Of course, we really don’t need a statistics to tell us that the answer is somewhere between “too many” and “seriously? Shawn Camp?…again?”

While most media outlets still list wins, losses, saves and ERA, a true measure of a relief pitchers effectiveness is their ability to come in and put out a fire. Strangely, IR (number of inherited runners) IRS (number of inherited runners scored) and IRS% (percentage of inherited runners that scored) are elusive numbers. None of the giant online media outlets list the numbers. But never fear, after some searching, the fine folks over at Baseball Prospectus have come through (as usual).

First let us take a look at the numbers for every pitcher that has pitched in relief this season for the Devil Rays. In all Major League games this season, relief pitchers have faced a total of 1906 IR. Of those runners, 589 have come around to score for a ML average of 30.9%.

PITCHER	IR	IRS	IRS%
Shawn Camp	29	13	44.8%
Gary Glover	16	3	18.8
Brian Stokes	15	6	40.0
Ruddy Lugo	10	7	70.0
Juan Salas	9	3	33.3
Al Reyes	4	1	25.0
Tim Corcoran	2	1	50.0
Chad Orvella	2	0	0.0
Jae Kuk Ryu	0	0	0.0

Jae Kuk Ryu is the only pitcher that is yet to enter a game with a runner on base. As we can see from the numbers, Shawn Camp, as well as Brian Stokes and Ruddy Lugo (currently in AAA) have been atrocious. Gary Glover has been surprisingly effective.

Now let’s see how the Devil Rays rank as a team against the rest of Major League relief pitchers…

TEAM	IR	IRS	IRS%
Colorado	56	25	44.6%
St. Louis	47	19	40.4
TAMPA BAY DEVIL RAYS	87	34	39.1
New York Yankees	83	32	38.6
Baltimore	81	31	38.3
Kansas City	78	29	37.2

As a team the Devil Rays have allowed 34 of 87 IR (both Major League highs) to score or 39.1%. Sadly, the Rockies, as a team, have been nearly as bad as Shawn Camp, but they have faced 31 fewer IR than the Rays. The Yankees and Orioles actually have similar numbers to the Rays.

There have been 27 pitchers that have inherited at least 15 runners in 2007…

PITCHER	IR	IRS	IRS%
Shawn Camp	29	13	44.8%
Geoff Geary	28	5	17.9
Brian Shouse	25	2	8.0
Aaron Fultz	20	7	35.0
John Parrish	20	6	30.0
Micah Bowie	20	6	30.0
Joseph Smith	19	6	31.6
Mike MacDougal	19	5	26.3
Jack Taschner	19	5	26.3

Shawn Camp has inherited more base runners than any other pitcher, with 29 and has allowed the most to score by a wide margin. His IRS% (44.8%) is the 3rd worst among pitchers with at least 15 IR. If Camp only allowed the league average, he would have only allowed 9 IRS, so Camp has allowed 4 more inherited runners to score than an average pitcher would have if placed in the same situations. Ruddy Lugo is tied for the 7th most IRS with 7 and Brian Stokes is tied for 10th with 6. On a brighter note, Glover has the 5th best IRS% of pitchers with at least 15 IR (18.8%).

Of the 74 pitchers that have faced at least 10 IR, Lugo is the league leader with 70% of those runners scoring.

We’re no brain surgeons here, but maybe Camp and Stokes shouldn’t be entering close games with runners on base. Just a hunch.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Andrew Friedman recently spent 5 days in Durham watching each of the Rays 5 AAA starting pitchers. It appears as though we are getting closer to seeing some changes in the Devil Rays rotation. In the meantime our Jae Seo and Casey Fossum voodoo dolls are taking a beating.

Each pitcher from the group – left-hander J.P. Howell and right-handers Andy Sonnanstine, Jason Hammel, Jeff Niemann and Mitch Talbot – is working on a few specific areas of interest. Friedman wouldn’t handicap who might get the first call to Tampa Bay, but said he could see a couple being ready “very soon” while others have some work to do.

• The Rays have a catching problem. Josh Paul, who was hit by a pitch spiked on a play at home plate on Sunday, needs to head to the DL. The problem is, his replacement, Shawn Riggans is on the DL at AAA Durham and not eligible to come off until Thursday. The Rays do not have any other catchers on the 40-man roster, so if they wanted to replace Paul with somebody else, they would need to designate somebody for assignment. Instead the Rays will keep Paul active as the emergency backup catcher and hope they don’t play any 16 inning games in the Mariners series.
• The Mariners come to the Trop for a 3-game set beginning tonight. Seattle is 19-21, 5.5 games behind the Angels in the AL West. They are coming off a loss to Cleveland that was a makeup game from earlier this season. They have lost 5 of 6. The Rays were 3-6 against the Mariners in 2006.

The Hangover: The Rays Finally Get To The Twins And Johan Santana

Thursday night’s game will now be known as “The Game We Do Not Speak Of.” Carl Crawford made up for it when left fielder Josh Rabe played CC’s single into an inside-the-park home run in the Rays 4-2 win over the Twins. Scott Kazmir did his part and out-dueled the two-time Cy Young winner Johan Santana. Kazmir was efficient working into the 8th inning and handing over the win to Al Reyes. Reyes worked a scoreless 9th inning for his 3rd save in 3 opportunities. A big win indeed, but can somebody please tell us why Carlos Pena was in the lineup last night. We understand he has been hitting well recently both in games (and batting practice apparently). But Pena is a left-handed hitter facing the best left-hander in the game. He is not the regular first baseman. We dopn’t second-guess Joe Maddon very often, but why on earth was Carlos Pena in the lineup?

• Akinori Iwamura’s hitting streak was snapped last night. Delmon Young extended his streak to all 10 games.
• Last night was the first loss at home for Johan Santana since August of 2005. He was 17-0 during the streak.
• It was the Rays first win in Minneapolis since June, 2004.
• Scott Kazmir was throwing harder in the 7th inning than he was in the 1st.
• Joe Maddon says the Rays are now at the point where they can score runs at any point in the lineup. Josh Paul’s rbi last night may have proved his point, although we are not overcome by confidence when Carlos Pena and Paul are in the lineup against Johan Santana.
• Was Carl Crawford’s base running error the worst ever? One Braves fan tries to compare it to Lonnie Smith’s gaff in the 1991 World Series. Thursday night was bad, but we are not sure how it is worse than costing your team a run late in game 7 with the score tied 0-0. A game and series that the Braves would go on to lose. That is a Braves fan in denial.

The Hangover: Cantu Or Gomes For Final Spot

• Two big notes from yesterday’s 3-3 tie with the Pink Sox. Edwin Jackson worked six innings and yielded only a single walk while striking out 5. Jackson has only had one start this spring in which his control betrayed him. If this keeps up, Jackson could be in for a big season. The second item is that B. J. Upton started at second and Jorge Cantu was the DH. We touched on this yesterday, but it is now looking more and more as if Upton’s role as super-utility may actually turn into a regular gig at second base, while Cantu and Jonny Gomes are now battling for the DH spot,with the loser being sent to Durham.
• The final two spots in the pen will come down to Chad Orvella, Juan Salas, Seth McClung, and Jae Kuk Ryu. McClung has given up 25 baserunners in less than 10 IP this spring so he is a long shot at this point. With Brian Stokes and Gary Glover likely to make the team, there doesn’t appear to be a need for another long reliever, so Ryu is probably out. Ryu gave up two home runs yesterday. Orvella has been lights out this spring (o.87 ERA) and seems like a lock. Salas has also been strong.
• All three of the Rays walking wounded saw action yesterday. Of the three, Rocco Baldelli, Dioner Navarro and Josh Paul, only Paul sounded confident that he would be ready for opening day.
• Not Rays related, but Kenny Rogers was placed on the DL yesterday with a tired arm. Wouldn’t it be great if this worked in real life. Boss, I need to take 2 weeks off, with pay, because I have a tired head. Thanks.
• Manny Stiles makes a long-winded case for the greatness of Delmon Young.
• We have no idea how good Carl Crawford can be, but it sure is going to be fun finding out.
• On Tuesday against the Jays, Carl Crawford forgot his jersey, so he was forced to wear #98. Apparently #98 was not as lucky as his usual #13. He went 0-3.
• Lou Piniella is not the only former Rays manager in Chi-town. Remember Larry Rothschild? Seems forever ago.

The Hangover: B. J. Upton Could Be Starting Second Baseman

• The Phillies beat the Rays 9-2 in Scott Kazmir’s final appearance before opening day. Damn, we hate losing to Philadelphia team in anything. So then we just go back and watch our tape of THIS game and we feel soooo much better.
• It appears as though we will need to adjust our roster projections after all as Dan Micelli appears to be on the verge of being released. The thought is that Micelli would be released to make room for Gary Glover on the 40-man roster. It also appears that Cantu could be sent to the minors in favor of Brendan Harris who is out of options. That move would allow Harris to be the backup infielder and make B. J. Upton the most days second baseman.
• Both Rocco Baldelli, Josh Paul and Dioner Navarro played in minor league games yesterday. Baldelli was a DH.
• After the three cuts yesterday, the Rays are now down to 34 players on the roster. Several of the cuts have already been decided but won’t occur until Rocco Baldelli, Dioner Navarro and Josh Paul return from their injuries.
• Jonny Gomes and Jorge Cantu seem to be feeling the pressure.
• Season ticket sales are up 10% and sponsorship deals are up 20%. Good news indeed, but keep in mind that 10% of very little is very little.

The Hangover: Devil Rays Still Looking For First Gear

• The Rays optioned Joel Guzman to AAA Durham on Monday. Guzman, who showed up to Spring Training slimmed down, impressed the coaches with his defensive ability at third base, but struggled with the bat. He was 4-29 with 2 doubles and a home run. Guzman has a long ways to go to prove he can hit at the Major League level. If he can be successful at Durham, the Rays could have a logjam at third base in 2008 with Guzman, Akinori Iwamura and Evan Longoria.
• Josh Hamilton hasn’t cooled off yet. He is hitting .487 with 19 hits in 14 games.
• Joe Maddon says it is time for the regulars to step up. The regular season is two weeks away and it is starting to gt close to that time when slumps will carry over.
• Papa Joe Maddon will also experiment with a new lineup today.
• Josh Paul just really likes wearing masks. Was he burned by acid or something?
• Stuart Sternberg and Co. have made a concerted effort to be more involved in the community.
  

The Hangover: Edwin Jackson Or J. P. Howell For The 5th Spot

• The Rays rallied from down 3-0 pull out just their third win of the Spring 5-4, in one of two split-squad games.
  
• In the other game, the two pitchers that appear to have a leg up for the final spot in the rotation, each tossed three innings in the 6-0 loss. Edwin Jackson, who might have had a slight edge going into the game, gave up only two hits and one run while striking out four in three innings. However, for the first time this Spring, his command betrayed him, and he walked five. He only had one walk in seven innings prior to Sunday’s contest. J. P. Howell also allowed a single run in three innings, with three hits, but he did not walk a batter. It appears that the race for the final spot will go down to the wire.
• Joe Maddon would like to see each of the pitchers one more time before narrowing the competitors for the final spot to two.
• Scott Kazmir gave up three runs, but had his best outing of the Spring, striking out seven in 5.1 innings. In the same piece comes the best indication yet that Joe Maddon has already made up his mind concerning Al Reyes. Reyes will pitch in a minor league game on Monday. This is an indication that Reyes will be on the opening day roster as Maddon would only send a pitcher to work in minor league camp so that he can get a better look at pitchers still fighting for roster spots.
• Dioner Navarro is still not ready to return to action with his sore hamstring. This is the first real indication that Shawn Riggans could be on the opening day roster. If Navarro, who has a history of hamstring problems, has to start the season on on the DL, Riggans would be on the roster and quite possibly could be the opening day starter, as Maddon would likely prefer that Josh Paul remain in his backup role, and allow the young prospect a chance to get some more Major League experience.
• The Hardball Times mathematical projections of the AL East standings indicate this could be a long season for the Rays with a final record of 68-94. One problem is that they predict each of the other teams to finish at .500 or better.

The Hangover: When Ozzie Smith Dies He Will Roll Over In His Grave

• Last year the Rays struggled in a number of areas on their way to 101 losses. Let’s take a look at how those struggles have translated to the first few games of the Spring.

1. Bullpen blows leads? Check
2. Starting pitchers throw too many pitches keeping them from working deep in games? Check
3. Offensive struggles? Check

Well at least the defense has played better…What was that? Six errors yesterday? All-time team record for Spring Training or regular season? Nevermind.

• Jae-Kuk Ryu may have taken an early lead in the fight for the 5th spot in the rotation surrendering only a single in two shutout innings against the Jays.
• Papa Joe Maddon says that Shawn Riggans can “absolutely make the team” as the backup catcher. We assume by “absolutely” he means “if Rigo can hit .600 with 10 home runs in Spring Training and Josh Paul loses two limbs.” The starting catcher for the Rays is only 23 years old. A team with such a young pitching staff and a young catcher can only benefit from having a veteran backup catcher. The pitchers will learn more. Dioner Navarro will learn more. Paul is not the biggest threat with the stick off the bench but he is serviceable and when Navarro needs rest it will benefit the team to have a veteran in his place.
• Papa Joe is infatuated with the defensive skills of Joel Guzman if not so much in love with his bat. The indication is that his days in the outfield are probably over and if Guzman can ever lose the gigantic holes in his swing and develop some more bat speed, his future in the majors is probably at third base.