[2008 ROSTER] 2008 40-Man Roster And Payroll Projections

The 2008 40-man roster and payroll projection is based only players currently within the organization and will be updated when trades are consummated and free agents are signed.

We are now less than a month away from Spring Training and after the recent flurry of contracts signings with the Rays arbitration-eligible players, we now have a much better idea of what the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays roster will look like and what the opening day payroll will be. Today we take a look at the projected 40-man roster and payroll. Tomorrow we will update our 25-man roster projection.

Notes on the projections can be found after the roster…

A few notes on the 40-man roster and payroll projections…

• The only salary that has the potential to be significantly different than that which we have listed is Mike DiFelice. We are assuming that the non-roster invitee will make the squad as the Rays backup catcher. DiFelice signed a minor league deal, but if he makes the roster it is unclear how much he would earn, but we can assume it would be in the $0.5-0.8 million range with plenty of incentives.
• All of the first, second and third year players salaries are estimates but should be in the neighborhood. Therefore, barring any further free agent signings/trades, the opening day payroll will be within $500,000 of our prediction of $42 million.
• That being said we can expect the Rays to sign a free agent left-handed relief pitcher. The salary for that player will be approximately $2 million, which would push the opening day payroll to approximately $44 million or about 57% greater than the 2007 opening day payroll .
• We have not followed the off-season moves of the Marlins, Pirates and Nationals, but $44 million would rank ahead of all three of those team’s 2007 opening day payroll.
• The next two teams on the payroll list, Arizona ($52 million) and Colorado ($54 million), both made the playoffs in 2007.

[CLIFF FLOYD] Rays And Cliff Floyd Agree On One-Year Deal

[Ed. note (4:29pm): Eduardo Encina is reporting that the contract has not been finalized]

Yahoo! Sports (are we the only ones that loathe the exclamation point?) is reporting that the Rays have signed Cliff Floyd to a 1-year contract with a team option in 2009. Floyd will make a base salary of $2.75 million with the opportunity to earn an additional $2 million in incentives.

We already wrote at length about what adding Floyd to the lineup would mean in terms of run production. As for the 25-man roster, Floyd fills multiple needs. He is the left-handed bat and part-time right fielder and DH the team was seeking. In addition, he will be able to spell Carlos Pena at first base whenever the latter needs a day off.

On the offensive side of the ball, there is now one less opening for the 2008. The team is still in the market for a veteran back-up catcher to fill one of the bench spots (could the Rays bring back Josh Paul in 2008?). Assuming that Ben Zobrist is the back up middle infielder, that leaves one bench spot that is wide-open. At this point, we give the edge to Joel Guzman because of his glove-work and defensive flexibility.

The signing of Floyd also raises the projected payroll to over $40 million. This is a jump up from what most thought would be the opening day payroll based on comments from the team that the payroll would raise approximately 20%. A $41 million payroll would be a raise of greater than 40% over the 2007 opening day payroll ($28 million).

OF Cliff Floyd agrees to $3 million, 1-year deal with Rays [Yahoo! Sports]
Rays: Floyd not on the dotted line…yet [tampabay.com]

[THE HANGOVER] Rays Pitchers Are Allergic To Strikes

Devil Rays (66-96)
Recondite Baseball recently did a little research on a simple pitching statistic and unwittingly may have stumbled upon one of the main reasons that the Rays pitching has been so awful and in turn, why the Devil Rays have been so bad.

Since the year 2000 (encompassing all but two of the seasons in which the Devil Rays have been in existence), there have been 347 pitchers that are still active and have thrown 200+ innings. Of these pitchers, 39 have thrown less than 60.0% strikes for their career.

The amazing part? Six (6!) of these pitchers (15.4%) currently pitch, or have pitched*, for the Devil Rays.

2. Victor Zambrano – 57.4%
7. Seth McClung – 58.6%
26. Jesus Colome – 59.6%
27. Dewon Brazelton – 59.6%
36. Jay Witasick – 59.8%
37. Edwin Jackson – 59.9%

If Penn State is “Linebacker U.”, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays are “Pitchers that can’t throw strikes U.” Just remember…It is not the home run that kills the ball club. It is the walk given up to the batter before the home run. Or in the case of most of these pitchers, the walksss.

Seeing these numbers, it is easy to understand why so many Rays fans have taken to Andy Sonnanstine so strongly. The Duke is not going to blow any batters away, but at least he is going to make the hitter beat him. At the other end of the spectrum for the Rays is Edwin Jackson. Nobody denies that Nuke has a major league fastball, but questions still remain if he can develop a second (and third) pitch and if he will ever be able to consistently pound the strike zone. When a pitcher throws 97-98, he does not need to have the ball on the black with every pitch, but he does need to be close. If not, enough batters will wait him out and take the walk, and more often than not, when Jackson does throw a strike, it will be of the 400-foot variety.

Pitchers and quarterbacks have many things in common, but the most important thing is that the most difficult thing to teach them is accuracy. It is easier to tweak a pitchers mechanics and add a few inches to their fastball than it is to help them find the strike zone. This is why it was so perplexing when the Mets pitching coach Rick Peterson said he could fix Victor Zambrano in “10 minutes”.

The Rays and their fans already have too much experience with pitchers that cannot throw strikes. If Edwin Jackson can’t be “fixed” his career as a major league starting pitcher may be short-lived.

*In several of these cases we use the term “pitched” very loosely…cough, cough, Dewon, cough, Brazelbum, cough, cough

Strike Percentage, Active Players with 200+ Innings Pitched [Recondite Baseball]

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Andrew Friedman emphasized that the Rays do have some flexibility when it comes to the 2008 payroll. In our 2008 40-man roster projection, we see the opening day payroll at approximately $36 million, which would be about a 25% increase over 2007. It is difficult to tell exactly how much “flexibility” is dependent on the 2008 salaries of Scott Kazmir and Carlos Pena, both of whom are arbitration eligible. [TBO]

“If the right player comes along, whether it be in a trade or as a free agent, that puts us over by a million dollars or two million dollars what our upper limit is, we’ll view that kind of independent of anything else,” said Friedman. “But you also have to factor in that as you do that, you’re just depleting what you can do the next year and the next year. All this money is fungible and it all will go into keeping our own players. It just gets to roster flexibility and how important it is for a lower-revenue team.”

• MILB is counting down the top 50 prospects. Reid Brignac is the first Rays’ farmhand on the list at #32. [MILB]

He spent all of 2007 in the Southern League and while the overall numbers weren’t as good as in the previous year, there’s still a lot to like about the young shortstop. Though his batting average suffered — largely because of a two-month slump — he still had 52 extra-base hits and stole 15 bases. Perhaps more impressively, his defense improved greatly, and questions about his ability to remain a shortstop have subsided. Winning two titles in as many years with Montgomery certainly doesn’t hurt, either.

• The Rays will officially unveil their plans for a new stadium today at Al Lang Field. Governor Charlie Crist will be on hand for the ceremony. [Bradenton Herald]
• The Rays re-signed outfielders Chris Richard and Jon Weber to minor league contracts. Both players were with Durham in 2007. The Rays also confirmed the signing of catcher Hector Gimenez, also to a minor league deal. [tampabay.com]
• Beyond the Boxscore compares Akinori Iwamura’s first season with the Devil Rays with his career averages from Japan. Surprisingly, the numbers are very consistent, except of course for the home run totals. [Beyond the Boxscore]

The Hangover: Evan Longoria Picks Up In Arizona, Where He Left Off In Durham

Peo Sequaros 5, Scottsdale Scorpions 4.
The Arizona Fall League is under way and several prospects from the Devil Rays organization are on the Scottsdale Scorpions roster, including Evan Longoria and Reid Brignac. Also joining The Dirtbag and the Cajun God of Baseball are pitchers Nick DeBarr, Calvin Medlock, Evan Meek and Mike Prochaska as well as John Jaso and Chris Nowak. On opening day, Longoria and Brignac combined to go 0-7 while Calvin Medlock gave up the tying run despite striking out 3 in 2 innings. Longoria picked up the pace on day 2, with a 2-run home run in the first inning. He finished 1-4. Nick DeBarr pitched a perfect 8th inning.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• The Yankees have spent over $1.1 billion on player salaries since their last world series championship. To date, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays have spent slightly more than $350 million in quest of their first. At this rate, the Rays have another 20 years before they reach futility level of the hapless Yankees…right? [Empyreal Environs]
• ArmchairGM reports “sources” that say the Devil Rays have “serious interest in (Jorge) Posada. This is not going to happen. The Tigers just picked up Pudge Rodriguez’ option at $13 million. Pudge and Posada are both 36. Pudge had an OPS of .714 this season while Posada’s OPS was .969. Pudge played in 129 games compared to 144 for Posada. Posada is going to be seeking $15 million per year for the next 4 years. The Rays may have “serious interest” but they are not paying a 36 year old catcher $60 million. He might be worth it in 2008. But both Pudge and Posada have already pushed the shelf-life of a catcher and are likely to not have much left in the tank. [ArmchairGM]
• Chris Mason was named the AA starting pitcher of the year, Minor League Baseball’s equivalent of the Cy Young award. It is too bad they couldn’t name the award after a former minor league pitcher that had an incredible minor league career. [MiLB]
• If the Rays fail to reach .500 in 2008, Joe Maddon will likely not be brought back for the final year of his contract. If Joe Torre is fired by the Yankees and does not land a job for 2008, the Rays could have considerable interest in signing the manager. The problem is Torre will be 69 in 2009. It is difficult to determine if Torre would be willing to work with a roster that is filled with talented, but very young players. Torre has only ever succeeded with veteran-ladened rosters. It is not out of the realm of possibility, but it is a longshot at best. [One More Dying Quail]
• The Rays released their 2008 schedule and everybody is awfully excited about the return of Lou Piniella. For the third consecutive season, the Ray will open the season on the road and for the second time in three years, the Rays will open the season in Baltimore, risking a cold, bad weather opener. [tampabay.com]
• Rays Digest hands out their team awards. Our favorite is Al Reyes taking home the award for “Best Relief Pitcher”. They could have also named the award, “Only Relief Pitcher” or “Least Suckiest Guy Wearing A Devil Rays Uniform Pretending To Be A Major League Pitcher”. Of course, they somehow came up with four (!) pitchers that were honorable mentions. [Rays Digest]

The Hangover: These Are The Rays Of Our Lives

• The Rays fell to the Yankees on opening day 9-5. The loss reminded us an awful lot of 2006. Scott Kazmir looked good at times, but threw way too many pitches and couldn’t get an out in 6th inning, forcing Joe Maddon to turn to his bullpen much earlier than he would have liked. And the bullpen was, well, they were the Rays bullpen. Three of the four relievers used by Papa Joe surrendered at least one run. Also, can somebody explain to us why Rocco Baldelli is stealing bases when he is not healthy enough to play the field. BJ Upton looked good, picking up two hits.
• Akinori Iwamura struggled out of the gate in the spring, but did not let that happen in the regular season, picking up his first big league hit on opening day.
• Elijah Dukes was the one player we were most excited to see play yesterday and he did not disappoint with a big day.
  
• Jorge Cantu will report to the Durham Bulls after all. We mentioned this during our live blog yesterday, but we will say it again. If Cantu is not a minor league player, then shut up, go down there and prove it.
• Josh Hamilton made his major league debut for the Cincinnati Reds yesterday afternoon. He lined out to left field as a pinch hitter in the 8th, but received a 5 minute standing ovation from the fans. Welcome to the show Josh. It’s good to see you.
• Surprise, surprise, the Yankees have the highest payroll in baseball and the Rays have the lowest. The Red Sox have closed the gap with the Yankees and that does not include the posting fee for Dice-K. I guess we will start calling them Evil Empire, Jr.

Devil Rays Acquire The Rights Of Free Agent Blogger For $535

Last week we mentioned (via Deadspin) that a blogger was auctioning himself off on Ebay. Manny Stiles of ArmchairGM. has never had a favorite baseball team and declared himself a free agent with the proceeds going to charity. The winner of the auction would be able to decide which baseball team Stiles would cover during the 2007 season. Who won the rights to add another writer to their team’s blogroll? The Rays very own doe-eyed team President Matthew Silverman for the grand total of $535 (and no, that is not a high school picture of Matt above. It is fairly recent). The bid amount plus an additional $1000 from Silverman are being donated to The Elizabeth Glaser Pediatric AIDS Foundation to aid in research and care of pediatric AIDS patients. Manny’s “salary” will double the Rays payroll for 2007 (at least it is tax deductible).

So it is now official Manny Stiles is a Rays fans. Let us be the first to say “Welcome aboard Manny!” And offer our condolences. Believe us, covering the Rays every day is not an easy gig even if the unintentional comedy is endless. We are willing to bet that Manny wishes he had an out-clause in the auction for this very scenario.

Wow! A professional blogger covering the Rays all season long. We are suddenly feeling a bit inadequate. Still, we are looking forward to it.

Rays Trade Value Index Update

Yesterday the Rays signed relief pitcher (we use that term loosely) Scott Dohmann to a 1-year contract. We were amused by the headline that surfaced on the Tampa Tribune website here…”Rays Get Some Relief”. Other than being an unoriginal and overused headline when a major league team signs a relief pitcher, in this particular case it appears to be completely inaccurate. Forgive us is we don’t see how this signing is anymore than a bullpen filler. Dohmann split the 2006 season between Colorado and Kansas City posting a 7.08 ERA in 48 appearances. He had shown some promise and a live arm during his rookie season of 2004 with a 4.11 ERA and 49 strikeouts in 46 innings. Still, in an area where the Rays desperately needed improvement heading into the 2007 season, Dohmann now marks the most significant addition to the relief corps.

As the free agency market dwindles and trade rumors have simmered, we are now starting to get a clearer indication of what the 2007 Rays are going to look like and right now it doesn’t look much different than the 2006 team in the rear view mirror. So let’s take this time to take another look at the Rays Trade Value Index and 2007 40-man and 25-man projections.

TRADE VALUE INDEX
The TVI ranks every player on the current 40-man roster and the top prospects in the organization. Our goal is to determine which players in the organization are the most valuable to the team. Ultimately, when looking at the rankings, the question should be, if the Rays could only keep one of two players from the organization, which player would the front office choose to keep.

The rankings consider a number factors in addition to talent and good looks, such as potential, age, contract and depth of position in organization. This last factor comes into effect if one player is stuck behind another player with more ability. For example, Elijah Dukes loses a little value because he is a mischievous little badger, and some more value because the team has Rocco Baldelli, Carl Crawford and Delmon Young firmly entrenched on the major league roster. Another factor is team needs. A pitcher may be ranked ahead of a more “talented” fielder because the team has a stronger need for pitching at the major league level. (Please see the original TVI post for further explanation).

A couple of notes on the rankings…

• B. J. Upton’s value has taken a big hit in the last 6-months, falling from 4th to 10th in the rankings. First off, his experiment at third base showed that he still has a long ways to go before he will ever be a major league infielder. Upton ranked 13th in the American League with 13 errors having only appeared in 50 games. Now, with the signing of Akinori Iwamura, Upton is a man without a position. There will be chances for Upton to win a position in Spring Training, but he will have to significantly outperform somebody else. Of course, a trade could free up a position or a move of Jorge Cantu to first base would open up second base for either Upton or Iwamura. The team could also move Upton to another team looking for a center fielder with a lot of upside. The problem is the Rays will have to take 75 cents on the dollar at this point in any trade, which may be preferable to bringing Upton off the bench or sending him back down to Durham. Upton is only 22 and his future is still very much uncertain. The guys at Baseball Prospectus also seem to have no indication of his future with Upton’s list of potential comparable players including Carlos Febles and Derek Jeter.
• Jeff Niemann continues to creep up the list and cracks the top 5. So far this off-season, the Rays have failed to add any starting pitchers. The Rays continue to talk to other teams about trading one of their young position players. Until any trades do occur and the Rays are able to acquire a young power arm that they covet to fill out the rotation, the team will depend on Niemann to become that #1 or #2 starter that they so desperately need.
• Reid Brignac may be the one player that is lower on the list than his talent would indicate. After some question his defense, the 2006 California League MVP now looks like his future at the major league level will be as a shortstop. After a slow start at AA Montgomery, he did rebound to finish the season hitting .300. Still, he only has 28 games above A-ball and the Rays have a number of other young major league infielders and prospects.
• Newly acquired Akinori Iwamura (#7), Brendan Harris (#31), and Scott Dohmann (#58, the new Mr. Irrelevant) make their debuts on the list. Mu-Rah may be a bit high, but again this is value in the eyes of the organization and most people that have actually seen him play say that while he may not be a great Major Leaguer, the Rays were able to obtain him at below market value thanks to the Japanese posting system, thus increasing his value to the team.

2007 40-MAN ROSTER AND PAYROLL

The projected 40-man roster is based solely on players currently in the organization. As trades are consummated and free agents are acquired, the projections will be adjusted accordingly.

A couple of notes on the 40-man roster projection…

• With the recent signings of Seth McClung and Ty Wiggington the Rays only have one remaining arbitration eligible player, Josh Paul. Paul made $475K in 2006 and looks to earn a raise in 2007. Paul is seeking $940K while the Rays have offered $625K. We had originally projected a salary of $800K. No matter the outcome of that case, the Rays 2007 payroll is now projected to be in the neighborhood of $27 million. This is down significantly from the 2006 opening day payroll of $43 million. On the surface this appears to contradict the organization’s promises to increase payroll. As w
  e stated all along, we would have been surprised with any big ticket free agents this off-season. The plan appears to be, that the Rays are going to treat the 2007 season as one more evaluation season and decide what holes need to be filled heading into the 2008 season when the Rays would like to start making a push up the standings.

2007 25-MAN ROSTER AND PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP

A couple of notes on the 25-man roster projections…

• Little has changed since our last TVI in regards to the opening day roster. At this point it still looks as if Mu-Rah will be the third baseman. Assuming Jorge Cantu remains at second base, first base is the only position that may be up for grabs in Spring Training. Ty Wiggington figures to get most of the ABs at first, but will also fill in at other positions. This will open up playing time at first for possibly Cantu and Jonny Gomes as well as non-roster invitee Hee-Seop Choi.
• There are still two open spots on the bench. Before his latest brainfart, Elijah Dukes had an excellent shot to grab one of those spots as well as significant playing time in the outfield, first base and at DH. Also, the recent acquisition of Brendan Harris fills manager Joe Maddon’s need or a backup middle infielder. Maddon would probably prefer one more outfielder and one more infielder to fill the final two spots, but may be inclined to only add one more fielder and head into the season with a 12-man pitching staff.
• The top three spots in the rotation appear to be set with Scott Kazmir, and Jae Seo and Scott Shields. There is still no indication whether Casey Fossum will be healthy in time for Spring Training. With his expiring contract and the always high demand for left-handed pitchers, Fossum is likely to be moved sometime before the trading deadline. This means that we only have to endure the Fossum Flop for 12-13 more starts (assuming he begins the season on the DL). J. P. Howell has the strongest chance of making the rotation. Tim Corcoran will be given a shot, but Madden has made it clear that he prefers to have Corcoran as a long reliever. Jeff Niemann should make his Rays debut sometime in 2007 but most likely will start the season at AAA Durham to ensure that he is arm is ready for the show. The darkhorse for the rotation is Edwin Jackson. Jackson is out of options and must be on the 25-man active roster. He struggled mightily in 2006 but he is still young (23) has a live arm and shown some progress in winter ball this year. If Fossum is not ready in April, Jackson could be given one last shot to be a starting pitcher for the Tampa Bay Rays.
• The bullpen may be the biggest disappointment heading into 2007. The unit struggled in 2006 and needed a one or two fresh arms. So far only Dohmann has been added to the corps and has no guarantee of even making the opening day roster. The only veteran on the staff is Dan Miceli. If no changes are made, Seth McClung will most likely be the team’s opening day closer. There are some talented arms in the bullpen but they are young and inconsistent. Tim Corcoran and Juan Salas will also be given long looks in the Spring to make the bullpen.