[THE HANGOVER] Delmon Young Walks The Company-Line In Minnesota

Tampa Bay Rays (13 days until pitchers and catchers report)
A college newspaper in Minnesota got a hold of Delmon Young for a quick little Q&A following the Minnesota Twins FanFest. And boy, what a difference 1,600 miles makes.

When asked about his experience with Tampa Bay…

Tampa was fun. They were the first organization I played with and I appreciate everything they did for me to get to the big leagues and let me play for just over a year … I had great teammates down there …, a talented team and everything, they are going to do well but they are in a tough division.

When asked about having to move from right field to left field with the Twins…

I will do whatever the team wants asks me. That’s what spring training is for, I have all the time in the world to get comfortable in left field. There is only a slight difference with the ball going the opposite way. It’s just a position, you know, just get a glove and let your instincts take over.

Twins fans have no idea what they have gotten themselves into. We cannot wait until the first time Ron Gardenhire asks DY to hit a ball to the right side with a runner on second and no outs, to get the runner to third. Or the first time he insists that Young take a pitch until the pitcher throws a strike after he has walked two straight batters (This is essentially why David Ortiz never posted big numbers with the Twins). We think it is just a matter of time before Gardenhire is Gettin’ a Delmon.

Q&A with Delmon Young [The Record]

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Rob Neyer ranks the 10 best left fielders for the next 5 years. He has Carl Crawford on top of the list. Still, it is not the most flattering evaluation ever. [ESPN]

You have to like Crawford, but it’s worth mentioning that he has not showed a normal growth curve. At 22, he was roughly six wins better than a replacement player … and was roughly six wins better than a replacement player at 23, 24, and 25. I’m not sure what to make of that, except there’s no obvious reason to think he’s suddenly going to become a great player (though I do believe he’ll have a few great seasons).

• The Stat Pack takes a close look at Rob Neyer’s list of the top left fielders. [The Stat Pack]
• Drays Bay takes a look at Keith Law and Kevin Goldstein’s list of the top 100 prospects and where the Rays prospects fall on those lists. The most surprising is that both have Desmond Jennings in the top 20 (11 and 18 respectively). [DRays Bay]
• Rays Anatomy breaks down Baseball America’s Prospect Handbook list of the Top 30 Tampa Bay Rays prospects. [Rays Anatomy]
  
• The Tampa Tribune has more details about that 35-person task force being formed by the St. Pete Chamber of Commerce to review the Rays proposal for a new stadium. [TBO]
• The Rays Hot Stove Radio Show will make its 2008 debut on Monday at 7:00 pm on 620AM. Andrew Friedman and BJ Upton will appear on the show and will be available for autographs. [DevilRays.com]
  
• Anthony DiComo takes a look at 10 rookies that could be dominant in 2008, including Evan Longoria. [MLB.com]

Down in Tampa Bay, Longoria is set to start at third base a year after slugging 26 homers between two levels of the Minor Leagues. And oh, yes, he’s only 22 years old.

The last part of that biography seems most impressive. On a team loaded with young talent, Longoria has a chance to be the star. He’s not two years removed from flying off the Draft board third overall, yet the Rays believe he’s ready for the big leagues — both on and off the field.

• UmpBump thinks everybody will be pulling for the Rays this year and that they will be a trendy playoff pick. [Ump Bump]
• Mitch Talbot was honored at his high school by having his jersey retired. When interviewed, hr stated that he expects to start the year in Durham, but he expects to be ready for the majors by mid-season. [Cedar City Review]

[THE HANGOVER] Rays Claim To Be Losing Money Despite Revenue Sharing That Exceeds Payroll

Tampa Bay Rays (19 days until pitchers and catchers report)
Just links today on Bob Eucker’s birthday, the 10th anniversary of “I did not have sexual relations with that woman“, Australia Day, and National Peanut Brittle Day. We will celebrate by cooking some peanut brittle with our grandmother, and then hooking up with an overweight girl at an Outback Steakhouse while sitting in the front row.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Matthew Silverman claims the Rays are losing money. This is despite a report in Forbes that claims the opposite. We always take a team’s assertion with a very large grain of salt. Just about every owner in every sport claims they are losing money and yet people that are very smart when it comes to money keep buying them. Many times, making money or losing money is often a matter of perspective. For example, teams that own their own stadium, often list “rent” as an expense since the stadium is usually listed as a separate business. So even though the money is just going out of one pocket and into the other, the team still lists the rent as an expense for the team. This doesn’t work in the case of the Rays, but we have to wonder if they are considering the $30+ million in revenue sharing that the team received last year. We do not know what the Rays exact take was in revenue sharing for 2007, but the team was given more that $30 million in 2006. With a 2007 opening day payroll of approximately $28 million, it is fair to say the Rays took in more Revenue Sharing then they spent on payroll. We are not accountants, but it seems to us that it would require some pretty fuzzy math to show how the Devil Rays lost money in 2007. [365 Days of Dough, Rays and Me]
  
• We participated with several other Rays’ bloggers in a “round table” discussion at Rays Anatomy in which we tackled the question “Who is the one player that is MOST important to the Rays future success?” [Rays Anatomy]
• The Heater got their hands on Baseball America’s complete list of the Rays top 30 prospects. We were treated to the Top 10 about two weeks ago, so this list just adds 20 players of which one or two will ever wear a Tampa Bay Rays uniform. [TampaBay.com]
• Kevin Gengler continues his rundown of his own list of the Rays Top 30 prospects. He is up to #18 and #17, Justin Ruggiano and Josh Butler. If you looked up AAAA-player in the dictionary of baseball you will see a picture of Justin Ruggiano holding his hands out saying “but I am above-average at a lot of things”. And that will keep him from selling cars for a few more years. He could be serviceable as a fourth outfielder on a lot of teams, but he does not have the skill-set to be an everyday major leaguer. Butler on the other hand we feel is flying a bit under the radar. He was the second-round pick the year the Rays selected Evan Longoria. He was solid last season, if not spectacular, in his first full season split between Columbus and Vero Beach. We will get a better idea of what he is this year once he makes his AA debut. [DRays Bay]
• Jim Callis took the top ranked prospect from each organization and ranked those 30 players. Evan Longoria comes in at #4. [Baseball America]
  
• Bill Chastain tries to rankle our feathers by devoting an entire column to the Rays’ attempt to keep the young talent in place. Luckily for Chastain, he waited until after the Rays signed James Shields and he includes speculation that the Rays will attempt similar deals with Scott Kazmir and BJ Upton. Nice try Bill. I’m not biting on this one. In fact if somebody was going to write an article on this topic, this is the way it needed to be done. [DevilRays.com]
• Derek Feldkamp tries to rebound from a poor 2007. Interestingly, Feldkamp feels more comfortable in the bullpen even though the team continues to utilize him as a starter. Used primarily as a relief pitcher at the University of Michigan, Feldkamp saved 15 games in his pro debut at Hudson Valley in 2005. Since then, the Rays have used him primarily as a starter. [The Daily-Telegram]
  

[THE HANGOVER] A Meta-Analysis Of Top Tampa Bay Rays Prospects

Tampa Bay Rays (35 days until pitchers and catchers report)
[Update 1/15/08: We have added the Top 13 prospect list from Rays of Light.]

[Update 1/14/08: We have added Stacy Long’s list of Top 30 prospects to the Meta-Analysis. Long’s list is clearly needed in this meta-analysis as he has seen most of these players play on a first-hand basis while covering the Montgomery Biscuits.]

[Ed. Note: We have updated the list to include the rankings posted by the highly respected John Sickels at Minor League Ball. His list was just posted this morning. There was little change in the overall rankings]

Yesterday Baseball America unveiled their list of Top 10 Prospects for the Tampa Bay Rays. No big surprises. You can find the full write-up HERE along with their list of the Top Tools in the organization.

BA is the 5th website (that we are aware of) that has released a rankings list for Rays prospects. We decided to do a meta-analysis and compare the results from several websites. In the science community, a meta-analysis is what we do when we don’t want to do any work ourselves and instead want to take the work of a bunch of other people, tease the data a little, draw some conclusions that nobody had noticed before, and then pawn it off as our own.

A few notes on the Meta-Analysis..

1. We included rankings from Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Minor League Ball, DRays Bay, Rays Digest, Riverwalk Talk, and Rays Anatomy.
2. When calculating the averages, we gave Baseball America a weight of 2. This is simply because, analyzing minor leaguers is what they do for a living. They are the experts and in many cases they have actually seen these prospects play and have been following them for several years. Not to mention their offices are in Durham.
3. If a player was excluded from a list, we gave that player a ranking of 2 spots lower than the lowest ranked player in the list for the purpose of calculating the final average.
4. The final list includes the 14 players that appeared in the Top 10 of at least one list.
5. We included our own Trade Value Index, which can be found in the side-panel. Our list differs from the others in that we incorporate more to our rankings than just how good of a major leaguer the player will be. Our rankings are based on “value” to the organization. For example, it is our thought that Wade Davis has the better chance of being a top major league starting pitcher, but we give Jake McGee a higher “value” because he is left-handed and a power lefty with a plus-breaking ball is a very rare commodity.
6. Notes on the individual rankings follow the Meta-Analysis.

• The top 5 are clear-cut with only subtle disagreements on the exact order. The only outliers are Desmond Jennings whom BP slots at #4 and our own TVI list which includes Jeff Niemann at #5 a spot ahead of Reid Brignac. The thinking is that Niemann is a pitcher, he is closer to the big leagues and while Brignac is still an elite prospect, he did raise at least a few doubts in 2007. If Niemann fails to make the opening day roster, he will begin to fall down the TVI…very fast.
• When it comes to strict major league projections, #8-15 are interchangeable in our eyes and while the names are fairly consistent across the lists, the actual order varies greatly.
• In our eyes, the top 7 are can’t-miss prospects. Not necessarily all-stars, but all seven should be contributing major leaguers. We would also add Eduardo Morlan to that list.
• We are not sold on Desmond Jennings. But, with the trade of Delmon Young and the injury struggles of Rocco Baldelli, Jennings and Fernando Perez will ultimately compete to be the third outfielder in 2009 or 2010.
• We are also not yet ready to anoint Jeremy Hellickson as a legit major league prospect. For a right-hander he is not very big and he is not over-powering, which translates very well at Low-A Columbus. He will get his first big test in 2008 at the hitter-friendly Vero Beach. Until he shows us he can compete at the AA-level, we will remain skeptical. We rank Chris Mason higher. Mason was a college pitcher, so he is more polished and while he is also a not very big, not very overpowering right hander, he has proven it at the AA-level. Still we are skeptical that he will be a very good major leaguer.
• BP and our own TVI give Eduardo Morlan his highest ranking of #7. Just look at the free agent market for relief pitchers this off-season and you will see that teams are starting to dish out big bucks for all relief pitchers, not just closers. For all the pitching depth spoken of in the Rays system, very little of it is relief pitchers. While starting pitchers that miss the cut will get a shot at the ‘pen, it is never guaranteed to be a successful transition. That gives Morlan a decided edge over others for an organization that is desperate for young talented relief pitchers.

RAYS PROSPECTS WEBTOPIA…

• Rays Digest breaks down the Tampa Bay Rays farm system. [Rays Digest]
• Future Considerations breaks down BA’s prospect list. FC is in the midst of revealing their Top 30 prospects but have yet to unveil their Top 10 so we could not include their rankings in our meta-analysis. We s
  hould note that earlier this week FC took their own stab at predicting the “Best Tools” categories and we questioned whether Evan Longoria would be named both “Best Power Hitter” and “Best Hitter for Average”. We thought it might be John Jaso. FC nailed it, as Longoria was named in both categories. *Tip o’ the cap* [Future Considerations]

Top 10 Prospects: Tampa Bay Rays [Baseball America]
Baseball America Names Rays Top 10, I Was Nearly Right… [Rays Anatomy]
Rays Prospect Preview [Rays Digest]
Rays Top 11 Prospects [Baseball Prospectus]
Baseball America’s Top Ten Rays Prospects [DRays Bay]
Top Rays Prospects [Stacy Long’s Riverwalk Talk]

The Hangover: Gettin’ A Delmon

• A lot has been made about the Rays farm system and most agree that it is the best in baseball right now. Well, apparently the Rays rank first in overrated prospects also. D. A. Humber: Baseball Central decided to rank the most overrated prospects in baseball. At the top of the list as the most overrated of the overrated? Our very own B.J. “Don’t call me Melvin” Upton. They point to how high he was drafted and his struggles in the field and his lack of production at the plate. They do concede that he is young enough and athletic enough to still develop into a solid major leaguer, but they are skeptical. In addition to Upton, Joel Guzman comes in at #4. There biggest point (and a valid one) is that despite his size (6’6″, 252 lbs.) he does not hit for a lot of power. We have never seen Guzman play, but we have been around baseball long enough to know that when a kid that big can’t hit for power it is usually because they have zero bat speed.
• D. A. Humber then countered with another post defending B.J. Upton and why he is not overrated. The main argument is that he is young and he was the second pick in a weak draft.
• Nate Silver at Baseball Prospectus wonders if B. J. Upton could be a Gary Sheffield in the making. Nate, stop teasing us. They test for steroids now. At this point we are still hoping for Jose Reyes but will settle for Mike Cameron.
• Josh Hamilton’s progress so far has been labeled “OK” by Reds manager Jerry Narron. Still, the Cincinnati Enquirer speculates that he will make the 25-man roster for the Reds, but worry his development may be stumped much the same way former Red Wily Mo Pena was. The Reds may also try to work out a trade with the Rays so they can send Hamilton to the minors.
• When the season starts, the Rays have a good shot at being the youngest team in the majors, but the two oldest players, Dan Miceli (36) and Greg Norton (34) let it be known that the youngins need grow up or things aren’t going to be any better in 2007.
• This has been out there for a while, but we had forgotten about it. If Delmon Young has any success this season, we need to prepare ourselves for more “bat tossing” jokes or as The Dugout likes to call it…Gettin’ A Delmon.
• DRays Bay has landed a couple of solid interviews in the past month and want you to know it by patting themselves on the back Ricky Henderson-style, over and over. Pretty soon they will start referring to themselves in the third person.
• Yet another write up on the Rays top 10 prospects.
• Do you remember the Turn Ahead The Clock promotion that Major League Baseball ran back in 1999. We remember, but strangely had forgotten that the Rays had participated, which is probably for the better. Well, for only $14.99 you can relive that night by owning your very own Rays Turn Ahead The Clock jersey!
• What would it take to make someone blog about the Rays all year?