The Hangover: We Smell A Devil Rays Battle Royal For Two Spots In The Rotation

Tigers 14, Devil Rays 2.

Starting pitching can carry a team — or weigh it down.

The Devil Rays are experiencing the latter, as three of the team’s five starting pitchers have been as inconsistent as their ERAs are high.

Those are the first two sentences from Bill Chastain’s write-up of last night’s game at devilrays.com. Let’s see how “inconsistent” they have been…

We have never liked the “quality start” stat in baseball (6 innings, allowing no more than 3 runs). Since when is 6 innings and 3 runs a “quality start”? In our eyes a quality start is 7 innings. A starting pitcher should at least be able to get the ball to the team’s set-up man. But for the sake of argument let’s see how many quality starts Edwin Jackson, Jae Seo and Casey Fossum have on the season.

Pitcher	GS	QS
Jae Seo	10	2
Casey Fossum	9	3
Edwin Jackson	9	2

Of the 7 “quality starts” that these pitchers have racked up, 4 of them have been of the 6-inning variety. Both of Jackson’s “quality starts” just barely qualified at 6 innings with 3 runs. On the season, these 3 pitchers have worked more than 6 innings a total of 5 times in 28 starts. For comparison (this really isn’t fair, but too bad) James Shields has worked into the 7th inning in every one of his 10 starts and has 7 quality starts all by himself.

So, we are a little confused. What exactly is “inconsistent” in their performance this season? Rather, these three pitchers have been amazingly consistent. Consistently bad. How many times has a game ended this season and Rays fans thought that one of these guys actually pitched well? Even a below-average pitcher should have a few of those by now. We can think of 1 for Seo and maybe 2 for Fossum. That is 3 solid outings in 28 starts. Josh Paul could do that. Hell, Joe Maddon could do that.

Never fear, change is on the horizon. Seo is now out of the rotation. And don’t buy into the statement that Joe Maddon made this week concerning Seo’s status.

He may go back and do his next start, but we’re not sure yet.

That is just Papa Joe not wanting to make an official statement yet. Seo is out. Fossum is next.

So who will the Rays bring up to replace Seo and Fossum? We could actually make a case for all 5 of the Durham starting pitchers.

1. Andy Sonnanstine. Last week we stated that Sonny was not likely to get the first call because he is not on the 40-man roster, but we have loosened on that position. It would not surprise us now if Seo is released. It might depend on whether the Rays think they can actually trade Seo and receive anything of value. Sonnanstine has been the most consistent of the 5, with only one bad outing all year. He has been a little more hittable his last two outings.
2. Jeff Niemann. Niemann has been consistently good this year, but he is yet to be great. He has not had that one start or stretch of starts that make you say “wow”. He consistently goes 5-6 innings and gives up 2-3 runs. He does have 57 strikeouts in 53.2 innings. This is the guy the Rays want in the rotation, but he may need another 5-10 starts at AAA.
3. Jason Hammel. Hammel has been named pitcher-of-the-week twice this season, but both of those came early in the season. He has been a bit more average for the last month until his last start when he threw a 5-hit shutout with no walks. Hammel also has major league experience and almost a complete year of AAA under his belt. That could give him the edge over the others.
4. Mitch Talbot. Want the hot-hand? Talbot is your guy. After struggling all season, he may have turned it around with only 6 hits and 1 run in his last 14 innings covering 2 starts. Still, the Rays will want to see a bit more consistency before Talbot gets a call.
5. JP Howell. Howell is the forgotten guy. Remember he pitched great in the spring and battled Jackson to the last week for the 5th spot. He also has the most major league experience in the group. He has been great his last 3 outings with 2 runs and 7 hits with 18 strike outs in 18 innings.

If the Rays are willing to make a roster move and drop somebody from the 40-man, Sonnanstine is the guy. He has earned it. If they decide to wait on a roster move hoping to make a trade involving Seo (or Cantu or Gomes) then the first call will probably be Hammel or Howell.

Anything would be an improvement of what the Rays throw out there 60% of the time.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• We have a lot of loyal readers around these parts, but Rob Neyer of ESPN.com is apparently not one of them.

In addition to [Edwin] Jackson‘s 7.12, the rotation also features Casey Fossum’s 7.15 and Jae Seo’s 8.10. And somehow nobody’s talking seriously about junking either of them.

Apparently Rob missed THIS post, or THIS one, and he definitely missed THIS one. In our defense. That last post? Jae Seo killed our cat the night before*

* might not be true.

• The Devil Rays have had discussions with the Mets concerning how they handled Jose Reyes and the recurring hamstring problems that plagued him early in his career. The Rays hope the same techniques can be used with Rocco Baldelli in an effort to reduce the problems he has encountered with his hamstrings. Mets personnel were able to alter the way that Reyes ran and he no longer has a recurring hamstring issues. Rocco is hoping to begin a rehab assignment, possibly in extended spring training with the next 10-14 days.
• Jane Heller of the New York Times is divorcing the New York Yankees and is having an affair with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Isn’t that kinda like divorcing Bill Gates to date the pool boy? I mean the pool boy may be more fun to watch, but you aren’t going nice places with him anytime soon.
• A judge has issued a 1-year restraining order against Elijah Dukes. Dukes must also undergo a psychological evaluation before he is allowed to see his children.

The Great B. J. Upton Debate

B. J. “Don’t call me Melvin” Upton is a big story for the Rays this Spring and the Worldwide Leader is starting to pick up on it. Papa Joe Maddon is giving Upton a shot to make the team as a “super-utility” player. He would not have a regular position, but he could see 400+ at bats at a number of different positions, including shortstop, second, third and any of the outfield positions. The hope is that Upton can take pressure off of himself to perform defensively and allow him to concentrate on rediscovering his offensive prowess that had him in the major leagues at the ripe age of 19. “Super-utility” players have become an important part of baseball and Maddon is modelling Upton after one of his former players, Chone Figgins. Figgins has flourished offensively without a regular position in the Angels lineup.

Still, many have wondered aloud if this is a prudent move with a young talent like Upton. Some feel the move will actually slow his progress defensively without an opportunity to work everyday at one position. Both Rob Neyer and Jayson Stark took up the debate about Upton yesterday. Neyer’s article can be found HERE, but is part of ESPN Insider. You can find Jayson starks article HERE.

Stark starts his article with the question, Who didn’t think B.J. Upton would be a star by now? The first part of the article is a recap of how Bossman Junior went from can’t miss prospect to trying to make the team as a utility player. Stark does a good job reminding us that Upton is still only 22 years old. It easy to think that he is much older, considering he made his major league debut in 2002.

Stark also touches on Joe Maddon’s decision to give Upton a Chone Figgins-like role with the 2007 Rays.

Great idea. But what no one knows — yet — is whether this is the right way to get him to that place. After all, if a guy’s biggest problem is his defense, is it going to make things better or worse to toss him into a constantly spinning defensive Cuisinart?

Rob Neyer is a little less understanding in his piece, arguing that the Rays and Maddon should have Upton in the outfield and the outfield only. His first piece of evidence to point out all the hall of fame outfielders that started as shortstops, including Mickey Mantle, Hank Aaron and Larry Doby.

Apparently if you move a poor defensive shortstop to the outfield, they become hall of famers. Then again, in those days shortstop was not a power position. Those three players were all hall of famers, and very likely would have still been hall of famers had they stayed at shortstop. The hall of fame is riddled with great offensive force that played the field like the ball was a hand grenade.

Neyer then blasts the Rays organization for the way they have handled Upton and the way they continue to handle him.

He’s been a professional baseball player for four full seasons, and he’s been an infielder during all of those seasons. At least one of those seasons was absolutely wasted, and it looks like the Devil Rays are about to waste another.

We actually have no idea what he means by a wasted season. Was Derek Jeter’s 1993 season at Greensboro wasted because he committed 56 errors? What about his last season at AAA when he committed 29 errors in 123 games? Apparently the Yankees should have made him an outfielder because now Jeter has no shot at making the hall of fame.

He even refers to Joe Maddon as an “otherwise bright fellow”, and blasts the organization for not trading Rocco Baldelli to make room for Upton in center field.

It is wrong. It’s time to get his career started. If the Devil Rays won’t or can’t put him in the outfield where he belongs, they should trade him to somebody who will. This has nothing to do with imagination. It’s nothing but doing the obviously smart thing. The right thing.

Now we don’t know what the right move is with Upton. We are as frustrated as any Rays fan, but we trust that Papa Joe and Co. are smarter baseball people than we are. Ultimately the success of this move is not up to Joe Maddon or Rob Neyer. It is up to B. J. Upton, and Upton alone.