[THE HANGOVER] An In Depth Look At James The Greater

Tampa Bay Rays (14 days until pitchers and catchers report)
Baseball Prospectus profiles James Shields. Take five minutes to read this and you will know more about James the Greater than you thought possible.

Two things stood out to us: 1) Shields scouting report from Baseball America’s list of the Rays’ top 30 prospects of 2002 (Shields was #27). This was after his first professional season as a 16th round draft pick. He would not show up on the list again until 2006.

Shields has good command of his fastball, which was clocked as high as 91 mph last summer. He also has a plus curveball that features sharp, late-breaking action, making it particularly troublesome for right-handers. Shields has impressive determination and excellent endurance…His changeup is no better than average, but the Rays believe that once he makes it more consistent, he could move rapidly. Shields made the most of his opportunities last year.

As pointed out in the piece, Shields’ change-up has come a long ways in seven years, as it was almost an after-thought early in his career. The profile continues to evaluate each of his minor league seasons and concludes by looking at how Shields used each of his four pitches in 2007, which is an excellent look at how a pitcher can attack righties and lefties differently.

As is typical of most right-handed pitchers, he uses his traditional breaking pitches much more frequently against righties by utilizing his slider (19 percent) and his curve (12 percent) at the expense of his changeup (26 percent). He’ll start off most right-handers with either a fastball (55 percent) or a slider (27 percent) and then if he gets ahead, he does a good job of mixing up his pitches. If he falls behind it’ll primarily be fastballs until he evens the count and can begin to work in the other pitches again.

His changeup has more tailing than downward action, moving over 8.5 inches on average (relative to a reference pitch thrown without spin) and he threw it over 43 percent of the time against lefties and a quarter of the time against righties. Although he doesn’t get a lot of called strikes on it, it is where he gets 60 percent of his swinging strikes and a fair percentage of his foul balls. As his out pitch, against right-handers he’ll pull it out a majority (60 percent) of the time on 0-2, 1-2, and 2-2 counts.

If you’re a left-handed hitter, 90 percnt of the pitches you’ll see from Shields are the riding fastball or changeup. He’ll usually start lefties with the fastball (64 percent) but employ the changeup 60 percent of the time when he’s ahead or even in the count. One would think having to choose from just two pitches would make things easier on the hitters but that proves difficult, as lefties hit worse (.243/.278/.393) on the season than right-handers (.250/.289/.428) because of his ability to changes speeds and locate both pitches very effectively. The other two pitches are just for show, as over 50% of the few sliders and curves he threw to lefties ended up in the dirt for balls.

The profile concludes by stating that Shields should not see a let-down in 2008 and will likely be better with an improved defense behind him.

Player Profile: James Shields [Baseball Prospectus]

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• The Philadelphia Daily News speculates that the Rays may be one of five teams interested in acquiring third baseman Wes Helms. The signing of Pedro Feliz by the Phillies makes Helms expendable. Still, there is little chance the Rays would be involved after the recent trade that brought in Willy Aybar. And the Daily-News’ assertion that the Rays front office is considering keeping Evan Longoria in the minors for the entire 2008 campaign is dubious at best. [Philadelphia Daily News]
• Armchair GM has the first power rankings of 2008 out. The Rays come in at a somewhat respectable #22, eight spots ahead of the Baltimore Orioles. There is a lot of hope this year for the Rays, and third base is strong possibility. But if the Rays do not finish ahead of the O’s in the AL East, heads will roll. [Armchair GM]
• It has been well-documented that the 2007 Tampa Bay Devil Rays had one of the worst bullpens in the history of baseball. Now 28.5% of the Rays 2007 opening day bullpen will be backing up newly acquired Johan Santana for the Mets in 2008. After acquiring Brian Stokes earlier this off-season from the Rays, the Mets have now claimed Ruddy Lugo off of waivers from Oakland. This is typical Mets. They distract their fans with shiny objects and hope they don’t notice that the front office just plugged one hole with a diamond, and yet there are still several other holes. This team is destined to be just good enough to break the fans’ collective hearts…again. [MetsBlog]
• The St. Pete Chamber of Commerce will form a 35-member task force to investigate the impact of the Tampa Bay Rays proposed stadium. The task for will be made up of local business and community leaders. The task force will help decide if the Chamber of Commerce will ultimately support or oppose the new stadium. [St. Pete Times]
• Bill Chastain continues his preview series of each of the Rays “positions”. The latest installment is “starting rotation”. [DevilRays.com]
• 365 Days of Dough, Rays and Me also takes a stab at the Rays 2008 starting rotation. [365 Days of Dough, Rays and Me]
• DRays Bay interviews Marc Normandin. Honestly, we had no idea who he was either until we went back and re-read the James Shields profile above. Normandin wrote that profile. [DRays Bay]
• The Diamond Cutter takes a look at the Rays top 5 prospects. [The Diamond Cutter]

[THE HANGOVER] We Knew The Bullpen Was Bad, But Geez

Something smells…Let’s see if we can figure out what it is…

Yesterday, somebody in the comments section asked about the number of runners inherited that Shawn Camp had allowed to score this year. Of course, we really don’t need a statistics to tell us that the answer is somewhere between “too many” and “seriously? Shawn Camp?…again?”

While most media outlets still list wins, losses, saves and ERA, a true measure of a relief pitchers effectiveness is their ability to come in and put out a fire. Strangely, IR (number of inherited runners) IRS (number of inherited runners scored) and IRS% (percentage of inherited runners that scored) are elusive numbers. None of the giant online media outlets list the numbers. But never fear, after some searching, the fine folks over at Baseball Prospectus have come through (as usual).

First let us take a look at the numbers for every pitcher that has pitched in relief this season for the Devil Rays. In all Major League games this season, relief pitchers have faced a total of 1906 IR. Of those runners, 589 have come around to score for a ML average of 30.9%.

PITCHER	IR	IRS	IRS%
Shawn Camp	29	13	44.8%
Gary Glover	16	3	18.8
Brian Stokes	15	6	40.0
Ruddy Lugo	10	7	70.0
Juan Salas	9	3	33.3
Al Reyes	4	1	25.0
Tim Corcoran	2	1	50.0
Chad Orvella	2	0	0.0
Jae Kuk Ryu	0	0	0.0

Jae Kuk Ryu is the only pitcher that is yet to enter a game with a runner on base. As we can see from the numbers, Shawn Camp, as well as Brian Stokes and Ruddy Lugo (currently in AAA) have been atrocious. Gary Glover has been surprisingly effective.

Now let’s see how the Devil Rays rank as a team against the rest of Major League relief pitchers…

TEAM	IR	IRS	IRS%
Colorado	56	25	44.6%
St. Louis	47	19	40.4
TAMPA BAY DEVIL RAYS	87	34	39.1
New York Yankees	83	32	38.6
Baltimore	81	31	38.3
Kansas City	78	29	37.2

As a team the Devil Rays have allowed 34 of 87 IR (both Major League highs) to score or 39.1%. Sadly, the Rockies, as a team, have been nearly as bad as Shawn Camp, but they have faced 31 fewer IR than the Rays. The Yankees and Orioles actually have similar numbers to the Rays.

There have been 27 pitchers that have inherited at least 15 runners in 2007…

PITCHER	IR	IRS	IRS%
Shawn Camp	29	13	44.8%
Geoff Geary	28	5	17.9
Brian Shouse	25	2	8.0
Aaron Fultz	20	7	35.0
John Parrish	20	6	30.0
Micah Bowie	20	6	30.0
Joseph Smith	19	6	31.6
Mike MacDougal	19	5	26.3
Jack Taschner	19	5	26.3

Shawn Camp has inherited more base runners than any other pitcher, with 29 and has allowed the most to score by a wide margin. His IRS% (44.8%) is the 3rd worst among pitchers with at least 15 IR. If Camp only allowed the league average, he would have only allowed 9 IRS, so Camp has allowed 4 more inherited runners to score than an average pitcher would have if placed in the same situations. Ruddy Lugo is tied for the 7th most IRS with 7 and Brian Stokes is tied for 10th with 6. On a brighter note, Glover has the 5th best IRS% of pitchers with at least 15 IR (18.8%).

Of the 74 pitchers that have faced at least 10 IR, Lugo is the league leader with 70% of those runners scoring.

We’re no brain surgeons here, but maybe Camp and Stokes shouldn’t be entering close games with runners on base. Just a hunch.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Andrew Friedman recently spent 5 days in Durham watching each of the Rays 5 AAA starting pitchers. It appears as though we are getting closer to seeing some changes in the Devil Rays rotation. In the meantime our Jae Seo and Casey Fossum voodoo dolls are taking a beating.

Each pitcher from the group – left-hander J.P. Howell and right-handers Andy Sonnanstine, Jason Hammel, Jeff Niemann and Mitch Talbot – is working on a few specific areas of interest. Friedman wouldn’t handicap who might get the first call to Tampa Bay, but said he could see a couple being ready “very soon” while others have some work to do.

• The Rays have a catching problem. Josh Paul, who was hit by a pitch spiked on a play at home plate on Sunday, needs to head to the DL. The problem is, his replacement, Shawn Riggans is on the DL at AAA Durham and not eligible to come off until Thursday. The Rays do not have any other catchers on the 40-man roster, so if they wanted to replace Paul with somebody else, they would need to designate somebody for assignment. Instead the Rays will keep Paul active as the emergency backup catcher and hope they don’t play any 16 inning games in the Mariners series.
• The Mariners come to the Trop for a 3-game set beginning tonight. Seattle is 19-21, 5.5 games behind the Angels in the AL West. They are coming off a loss to Cleveland that was a makeup game from earlier this season. They have lost 5 of 6. The Rays were 3-6 against the Mariners in 2006.

The Hangover: Finally, A Reliever Loses His Job

A’s 5, Devil Rays 3.
After winning three of the previous four series, the Rays came back to earth a little by dropping the rubber match with the A’s. The good news is, that despite throwing both Casey Fossum and Edwin Jackson in the series, the Rays only allowed 12 runs in the three games combined. That marks the fewest number of runs allowed by the Rays in a 3-4 game series this year. In fact the on two different occasions the Rays have allowed 12 runs in a single game. In fact the bullpen was above par for the first time this season, with only 5 runs in 11.2 innings and have only allowed 2 runs in the last 9 innings of work.

The Rays have the day off today before beginning a a very important stretch of 6 games on the road and in the division. On Tuesday, the Rays will begin a 3 game set in Baltimore before heading to Toronto for 3 more. Both teams are reeling right now and if the Rays want to make a serious run at The Charlie Hough Line, they win games against the two teams that the Rays have a legitimate shot of finishing ahead of in the division. Three wins this week would be nice. Four would make us down right giddy.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• We have our first bit of roster shakeup this weekend as Ruddy Lugo has been optioned to AAA Durham. He had a 9.28 ERA in 11 appearances. The Rays have not yet announced who will replace Lugo in the lineup.
• BJ Upton is the first player since 1965 (Dick Allen) to lead a league in both hitting and strikeouts for more than one day.
• There are few players in baseball that can look an all-star one inning and a never-will-be the next as often or as extreme as Edwin Jackson. He is still young and already out of options, which forces the Rays to be patient. Joe Maddon states that he may allow JAckson to throw more pitches than his other young starters since Jackson appears to get better the deeper he works into a game.
• Joe Maddon stated that he hasn’t ruled out the possibility of using Al Reyes in three straight games.
• Scott Kazmir may be ready to start hitting his stride. After a couple of starts in which his fastball was topping out around 90, on Saturday it was back up into the mid-90s.
• Saturday’s 9th inning rally and extra-inning win marked the 3rd time this season the Rays have rallied to win when trailing in the 9th inning.
• The Rays will celebrate the opening of their new Venezuelan baseball academy today.

Time To Get The Durham Shuttle Warmed Up

Let’s face it, Shawn Camp and Ruddy Lugo are not major league pitchers right now. In spring training Joe Maddon made it clear that there were no more free lunches. No more “scholarships”. This is why we were puzzled when Papa Joe appeared to guarantee Camp and Lugo spots in the bullpen at the beginning of the spring, despite being two members of the worst bullpen in baseball in 2006. Camp said during the spring that he was working on being more consistent. Mission accomplished. He has been consistently bad in 2007. In four appearances, he has recorded only 7 outs, yet he has surrendered 6 hits, a walk, and a hit batter, to go with 4 runs.

Last night Camp relieved Edwin Jackson with 2 outs in the 6th with runners at first and third and the score tied. Two batters later the Rangers were leading 4-2. Papa Joe had seen enough. Now it was Lugo’s turn to stop the bleeding. Four batters and zero outs later, the game was 8-2 and out of reach. Lugo has actually been worse than Camp so far in 2007. He has recorded 6 outs, and he has given up 7 hits and 4 walks which have led to 5 runs. That equates to an era of 22.50 and a 5.500 whip. That’s not an easy thing to do.

So now we will see if Maddon and Andrew Friedman are true to their word. Are Camp and Lugo on “scholarship”? If not, they need to be in Durham. We have no idea what the problem is, but it is clear that neither is capable of getting major league hitters out at this point. If this continues, it will be damaging to this young team. This team started the season with a lot of confidence. To compete with the monsters of the AL East, this team needs confidence and there is no way they can be confident in the bullpen right now. The idea of Camp or Lugo even warming up in the bullpen during a game in which the lead is less 10 gives us the hibidy-jibidies.

We don’t know who should be in their place, but right now a Fungo could get more hitters out. At Durham, Steve Andrade has 7 strike outs in 4.1 innings, but gave up 2 runs in his first appearance. Tim Corcoran and Scott Dohmann both have major league experience and have been solid so far. Chad Orvella has struggled a bit early on, but was strong this spring with the Rays. Hell, we would rather have Seth McCl…ummm, nevermind. We aren’t that desperate yet.

Is it any coincidence that these are the two pitchers that were used during the now famous “Cat in the Hat” reading? Durham parents are checking the transaction page daily. Soon they will have to lock their children in the basement.

The good and, well, just the ugly [St. Pete Times]

The Hangover: Casey Fossum Makes First Start Before Next Injury

• Another day…another loss. James Shields was shaky in the first, but settled down and retired nine of the final ten he face. He struck out five in four innings.
• Seth McClung had a rough outing and Joe Maddon made it clear that he has not decided who the closer is yet. If McClung continues to be inconsistent, Al Reyes is going to start getting some serious consideration.
• Ruddy Lugo is blaming his rough start to Spring Training to rust from not pitching in winter ball during the off-season. Seven hits, one walk and four runs in four innings, is a lot of rust.
• Oh boy! It’s the day we have all be waiting for. Today is like Christmas morning and what has Santa brought for us? Casey Fossum! Fossum returns to the mound today against the Tiggers. We are setting the over/under on his “hardest” pitch at 82 miles per hour. By “hardest” we of course mean “least soft”. Let’s face it, Fossum is the only major league pitcher whose arsenal does not include a fastball.
• Papa Joe Maddon is having some t-shirts printed (for the players?) that will read “No regurgitation – Tell me what you think, not what you heard.” No regurgitation? Maybe he should have some printed for the fans. Only problem is they will tell you what they think and they will regurgitate (not necessarily in that order).
• Just an interesting tidbit we picked up listening to yesterday’s game on WHNZ 1250. Yesterday’s opponent, the Houston Astros, are the only team the Rays have never faced during the regular season. We are too lazy to look it up, so we will take their word for it. Can anybody verify that for us? For example, have the Rays already faced all of the NL West teams during interleague play?

Yes, But Do They Like Green Eggs And Ham?

Last week, a large group of area school kids showed up at Prospect Energy Ballpark to celebrate the 50th anniversary of Dr. Seuss’ The Cat in the Hat. Part of the celebration was to have two Rays players read the book to the kids. You would think they would have chosen two players that could, you know, Read. Instead the poor kids were subjected to the stylistic orations of Ruddy Lugo and Shawn Camp. Channel 10 News was on the scene to cover the birth of the baby panda the reading. You can find video of the event and the reading on their website. We have given many talks in front of large crowds and we admit it is not an easy thing to do. But the last thing you want after reading to a bunch of children is for Little Johnny to ask his teacher why he can read better than a professional baseball player.

Devil Rays read The Cat in the Hat! [Tampa Bay 10]