[THE HANGOVER] Opening Day To Feature More Bucs Jerseys Than Rays Jerseys In The Stands

Tampa Bay Rays (6 days until pitchers and catchers report)
Just the links this morning…we will be back in a little while.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• We thought we were going to have to retire our #40 Bucs jersey permanently, but it looks like it will get at least one more day in the sun dome. Mike Alstott will throw out the first pitch at the Rays home opener. Might there actually be more Bucs jerseys in the stands than Rays jerseys during the home opener. Magic 8 Ball says ‘Absolutely’. [TampaBay.com]
  
• Rays of Light breaks down how Trever Miller has fared against some of the better left-handed bats in the AL East. Verdict is, Miller will make a strong situational lefty for the Rays. [Rays of Light]
• Despite his most recent spat of legal issues, Willy Aybar is expected to join the team for the beginning of Spring Training. [TampaBay.com]
• Carlos Pena is only 50-1 to hit the most home runs in baseball in 2008. The Rays are currently 200-1 to win the World Series, tied with 5 other teams for the longest odds. They are 100-1 to win the AL, tied with the Orioles and the Royals and 50-1 to win the AL East, ahead of the Orioles at 100-1. The Red Sox are the current faves to win the World Series at 7-2, trailed closely by the Mets and the Yankees, both at 5-1. [Vegas Watch]
• Curt Schilling has a serious shoulder injury that may ultimately require season-ending surgery. This makes us giggle a little. Not because we enjoy schadenfreude, but because we wonder if those few people still think it would have been such a great idea to have him on the Rays for 2008. That would have been money well spent. [Boston Herald]
• The St. Pete City Council voted yesterday to accept community input on the fate of the land that is currently the home of Al Lang Field, if the area is not used for the Rays new stadium. a portion of the community would like to see the area become a park. [TBO]

[THE HANGOVER] The Rays Add Trever Miller And Eric Hinske To The Mix

Tampa Bay Rays (7 days until pitchers and catchers report)
The Rays signed a pair of players yesterday. Relief pitcher Trever Miller was signed to a one year contract that will pay him $1.6 million this season with a $2 million team option in 2009. Miller previously pitched for the Rays in 2004 and 2005. As a left-handed relief pitcher, Miller fills the last remaining hole in the Rays 2008 opening day roster. With five of the seven bullpen spots now spoken for (Troy Percival, Al Reyes, Dan Wheeler, Gary Glover and Miller) that leaves two jobs up for grabs. One of those spots (long reliever) will be filled by one of the starting pitchers that does not make the rotation (likely Jason Hammel). The final spot is likely to be a spring training battle between Juan Salas, Scott Dohmann and Grant Balfour.

The Rays also brought in former rookie of the year, Eric Hinske on a minor league contract. He will make $800,000 if he makes the team. Hinske was signed despite news that domestic violence charges against Willy Aybar have been dropped in the Dominican Republic. Hinske is being brought in as insurance in case Aybar is not fit to be either the starting third baseman or part of a platoon with Joel Guzman. Hinske appeared in 84 games for the Red Sox last year playing first base, left field and right field, hitting .204-6-21. Hinske could also conceivably become part of the right field rotation, as the team has made it clear that they prefer Cliff Floyd be the team’s DH and Rocco Baldelli may be limited to start the season.

While he have heard rumblings that the Hinske deal is similar to the situation in which the Rays brought in Carlos Pena last year, everybody needs to temper their excitement. The Rays also brought in Hee Seop Choi last year and now he is out of baseball. Hinske has not hit more than 15 home runs in a season since his rookie year of 2002. That includes four seasons in which he has appeared in more than 100 games. Pena had shown that he could at least hit for power when he was given regular playing time, with 27 dingers in 2004 and 18 home runs in half a season in 2005. In short, we would guess that he and Joel Guzman have an equal shot at the last roster spot.

Finally, it is not too much of a stretch to assume that the trade for Aybar and the signing of Hinske suggest that the Rays have decided to keep Evan Longoria in the minor leagues to start the 2008 season.

Miller’s contract brings the Rays payroll above $43 million.

Miller reunited with Rays [DevilRays.com]
Rays Sign Hinske [MLB Trade Rumors]

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• We are not sure if the title “The Eric Hinske Era Ends” is a reflection of his time in Boston ending or his time with the Rays beginning…or both. [Surviving Grady]
• The Rays apparently tried to sign Dallas McPherson, prior to trading for Willy Aybar. [Sun-Sentinel]
• How many other teams have a GM that is so dedicated that he will appear on a blog radio show that has about 20 listeners? Andrew Friedman will be a guest on “Baseball Talk” on BlogTalkRadio this Sunday at 11:00 AM. [BlogTalkRadio]
• The domestic violence charges against Willy Aybar have been dropped. [TampaBay.com]
• Bill Chastain continues his “Around the Horn” series in which he examines each of the Rays’ “positions”. This week it is the bullpen. [DevilRays.com]
• Sox1Fan takes a look at the Rays top 10 prospects. [Sox1Fan]
• Opponents of the Rays proposed stadium are expected to make an appearance at this morning’s St. Pete city council meeting. The protesters want to see the site of Al Lang Field turned into a park. [TBO]
• The Bleacher Report says there is a lot to be optimistic about with the Rays this year. [Bleacher Report]
• Mets fans can take solace in the fact they finally got back the pitcher they gave up for Victor Zambrano. Wait? You mean it wasn’t Jose Diaz you wanted back? [Mets Fever]

[THE HANGOVER] Akinori Iwamura Need Not Worry About Second-Year Struggles Of Other Japanese Position Players

Tampa Bay Rays (24 days until pitchers and catchers report)
DRays Bay looks at the history of Japanese position players that have made the switch to Major League Baseball and their improvement (or lack thereof) from year one to year two. History does not bode well for Akinori Iwamura as only Hideki Matsui improved significantly and the other five players on the list showed a decline in OPS in their second year. This does not worry us at all. Of the players on the list, only Matsui had to significantly alter his approach at the plate when he came to the US.

When he came to the Yankees, Matsui hit only 16 home runs in his first season, despite hitting 40 home runs in three of his 11 seasons in Japan. In year two, Matsui made adjustments to the pitchers, the bigger parks and improved his home run total to 31. More impressive was that even though he was starting to hit more home runs, he recognized that he was never going to be the same home run hitter in the US as he was in Japan and transformed himself into a doubles machine. In 11 seasons in Japan, Matsui only exceeded 30 doubles on three occasions with a career-high of 34. Matsui exceeded those totals in his first three seasons with the Yankees with season totals of 42, 34 and 45 doubles.

Of the other five players on that list, only Kazuo Matsui ever hit as much as 30 home runs in one season in Japan. None of those players had to make the adjustment from power-hitter, to good all-around hitter.

In his two seasons prior to coming to the Devil Rays, Iwamura had home run totals of 44 and 32 (in 2003 Iwamura hit 12 home runs in 60 games, which projects to 30 over the course of a full season). Nobody expected Iwamura to come in and hit 35 home runs for the Rays. In fact, Iwamura predicted 20 home runs. When the season was over, his home run total was 7, a fry cry from his Japan League totals and his own prediction. However, the drop-off in power mimicked that of Matsui in 2003.

We are not expecting Iwamura to rebound and hit 30 home runs in 2008, but it would not surprise us if his power numbers see a significant boost in season two. By the end of the season we expect to see that Iwamura’s home run total is on par with his prediction entering last season (20) and we also expect to see a significant bump in doubles (21 in 2007). If that occurs, Iwamura will not only improve his OPS in year two, he will establish himself as one of the top-hitting second basemen in baseball.

Aki to battle recent history [DRays Bay]

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Considerable debate was raised over our criticism of Joe Maddon’s “goal” of 81 wins. While we ackowledge he wants more than 81 wins, we felt it was poorly worded and it is the wording that the fans and the players will gravitate towards. In Marc Topkin’s most recent piece, Stuart Sternberg did a much better job of conveying the team’s perception of what is accepted of the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays. “The goal is to get the organization to a place where we feel coming in we should win 80-something games, and if things break right you win 8-10 more and if things break badly you win 10 less,” he said. “We’re pretty much there. Being in a position to win 65 with the chance to win 75 is not acceptable.” In Sterberg’s words, this is an 80-win team with a chance to be a 90-win team if things break right for the Rays. This was our point from the beginning. Papa Joe made it sound like the Rays are a 75-win team and we should all be happy if they won 81 games. Sternberg’s and our position is that this incarnation of the Rays should win 80 games, and anything less would be a disappointment. [TampaBay.com]
• Further down in the same piece, Topkin reports that the Rays are in talks with left-handed reliever Trever Miller, but that length of contract remains a sticking point. [TampaBay.com]
• MLB Trade Rumors takes on the Tampa Bay Rays in their latest installment of “Needs and Luxuries”. With the piece, MLBTR addresses this season’s lineup and looks ahead to 2009 and some of the changes the Rays could have in store when they make a serious push for the playoffs. [MLB Trade Rumors]
• Baseball America takes a look at the 2008 draft and upon further review…yep…The Devil Rays did suck last year more than any other team (again) and will have the top pick on the draft. Jim Callis speculates that the Rays could take high school shortstop Tim Beckham, over college third baseman Pedro Alvarez. [Baseball America]

The Rays have a lot of quality pitching coming through their pipeline, but teams always want more and they could opt for one of the top college arms, Missouri righthander Aaron Crow or San Diego lefty Brian Matusz. Tampa Bay has gone with pitchers with three of its last four top picks, so my gut feel is they’ll be more inclined to go for a bat. It says here they’ll opt for Georgia high school shortstop Tim Beckham over Vanderbilt third baseman Pedro Alvarez because Beckham plays a more premium position. I still think Alvarez is going to become a first baseman or left fielder by the time he reaches the majors

[2008 ROSTER] The Professor’s Take On "Jake Takes On The Winter Meetings"

For the record: I have decided to break down this post written by Jacob Larsen of DRays Bay even before reading it, having no idea if I will agree or disagree with the points that have been made…

Jake Larsen of DRays Bay takes on the role of Tampa Bay Rays GM and tells us the moves he would try to make at the winter meetings. We will take a look at each of these suggestions and offer our thoughts on whether or not the moves are good for the Rays and/or if the moves are even possible.

Jake first looks at the pool of free agents and picks five players that the Rays should be targeting as well as 5 players to avoid.

Ron Mahay, LHP

• [Jake’s Take] it’s evident that Kurt Birkins and Jeff Ridgway don’t fit in a bullpen with names like Troy Percival, Al Reyes, Dan Wheeler and Juan Salas(his last name is a palindrome). Ron Mahay would be yet another “veteran presence” in the bullpen. Only risk is that he’s a Type B Free Agent and he’d cost us a 2nd round pick in the upcoming draft.
• [The Professor’s Take] Would be a strong upgrade over the leftys that are available in-house. Mahay made $1.25 million last season, which means he might be had for $2 million, which would be reasonable. Unfortunately, the Yankees may also be interested, and we are skeptical of giving up a second round pick. The Rays recent second round picks have included Will Kline, Josh Butler, Chris Mason, Reid Brignac and James Houser. Would the Rays trade one of those players for Ron Mahay? Not likely. For a team that builds through their farm system, that is too big a big price for a lefty specialist. verdict: DON’T SIGN

Tony Clark, 1B

• [Jake’s Take] Positive Veteran Leader who still can hit for power
• [The Professor’s Take] This is true, BUT, Clark is strictly a 1B/DH. While the Rays do need a left handed bat and Clark would be a great power threat, he would be strictly a DH with the Rays. That will take significant at bats away from Rocco Baldelli and Jonny Gomes. Also, while Clark may be willing to be a role player or platoon DH, would he be willing to do that with the Rays? And will the Rays be willing to give Clark $1.5-2 million to be a part-time player? verdict: WON’T SIGN

Michael Barrett, C

• [Jake’s Take] Decent hitter, calls a good game and will stand up for his pitchers when they give him a good effort. Yeah, sounds like he’s Crash Davis Incarnate
• [The Professor’s Take] A Type A free agent. And while the Rays top pick is protected, Barrett would cost the Rays their second round pick. Again, would the Rays trade one of the above mentioned players (ie. Reid Brignac) for a backup catcher? Not a chance in hell. Low payroll teams have to be smart and that is not a smart move. verdict: DON’T SIGN

Andruw Jones, CF

• [Jake’s Take] 1 year rental/shock the baseball world…why not bite the bullet and prove to Boras that we’re willing to take the risk and spend money? We sign Jones to an incentive-laiden contract with a possible option for a 2nd year, we impress Boras who needs to be proven that we’re “in it to win it” and we may be allowed to sign Pena to a deal that we won’t have to pay through the nose.
• [The Professor’s Take] We admire the wishing, but this is absolutely ridiculous. First of all Scott Boras has already said that Jones will not accept a 1-year deal. Then consider that the Rays would have to pay $15 million annually for a player that has only hit above .265 ONCE in the last seven seasons, and posted a line of .222-26-94 last season. Don’t get us wrong. Jones is a talent. But the Rays have other needs. If the Rays are going to drop $15 million on one player, why not grab a starting pitcher (or two). verdict: PIPE DREAM

Kazuo Fukumori, RHP

• [Jake’s Take] We need to continue slowly adding international talent and continue to improve our bullpen. It’s bad enough that Boston and the Yankees seem to have partnerships with Japanese baseball teams, but keeping Japanese fans in tune with Rays baseball with Aki and Fukomori will prevent those 2 from taking over the Japanese market
• [The Professor’s Take] We have no idea about the talent. Our concern is that Japanese relievers are now the soup-of-the-day after the success of Hideki Okajima of the Red Sox. The Mets fell for this after the success of Ichiro when they thought Tsuyoshi Shinjo was just as good if not better. And please keep in mind that the Yankees are the Yankees and the Red Sox are the Red Sox. Even in Japan. The Rays may want a piece of that market, but they cannot compete on the same level as those two teams. As for Fukumori, there appears to be a number of teams interested, so it depends on how high the bidding goes. And in the meantime, the Rays’ need for a lefty trumps this. verdict: MAYBE

players to avoid: Darin Erstad, Trever Miller, Bartolo Colon, David Eckstein and Eric Gagne.

• [The Professor’s Take] Please, please stay away from Erstad, Eckstein and Gagne. Colon? Not for the price, but we think he still has gas in the tank. Miller is the interesting one. Miller is a LHP that had a big 2006, but came back to earth in 2007. Again, if that price is not too much, he could be cheaper than Mahay.

Jake then proposed three trades…

SP Edwin Jackson, RP Al Reyes and OF Jonny Gomes to Seattle for C Jeff Clement and PTBNL

• [Jake’s Take] We all need to give up the thoughts that Edwin Jackson will be a future starter in the Rays rotation…Clement would give us a dynamic young duo of catchers, which would give Dioneer the idea that he needs to speed up his development and “work out” a bit more often. Clement, due to his massive body, always could learn 1B on the job and get some ABs at DH. We’d be less likely to have free outs in our line-up with the possibility of Clement in the line-up
• [The Professor’s Take] We like Clement and have made our feelings known about Jackson in the past (he is a quitter). Two problems. Seattle would probably do this deal without the Rays including Reyes (unless the Rays want an extra prospect tossed in) and we are not sure the Rays would open the season with such a young starting rotation and young starting catcher and not have a veteran catcher on the roster. verdict: WE LIKE

SP J.P. Howell to Arizona for RF Carlos Quentin [Quentin has since been traded to the White Sox]

• [Jake’s Take] Carlos is coming off a shoulder surgery(to his non-throwing arm) and the Diamondbacks are hard-pressed for young pitching. J.P. seems destined to become a better p
  itcher on a NL team than the AL, so why not fill a hole of ours with a player that was a top prospect in a very prestigous farm system but has basically lost his luster by default and D-Backs crowded OF? If not JP straight up, offer them Hammel and JP and ask for Neigborgall in addition to Quentin.
• [The Professor’s Take] Quentin was traded for a top first base prospect who was in single-A, so it is difficult to gauge if this deal would have been acceptable to the D-Backs, but we would have pulled the trigger. verdict: GOOD DEAL, CAN’T HAPPEN

SP Wade Davis and OF John Matulia for the rights to SP Mark Prior

• [Jake’s Take] Initially, in an idea that I gave to RJ, I said Wade Davis for Prior. However, Hendry probably would be mocked for such a random trade for a pitcher that Cub fans have never heard of (even though they have a WR posing as a pitcher in their farm system). I added his idea to the offer, just for the fact that Hendry loves “toolsy” OFers and the fact that Matulia was a draftee of Wilkens(who drafted John’s baby bro, I believe, for the Cubs).
• [The Professor’s Take] This one must be a joke, or Jake was getting really tired or desperate for ideas. NO, NO, NO…NEVER, NEVER, NEVER. First off, the Rays are giving up one of the Top 20 prospects in baseball for the rights to Prior? And let’s say the Cubs did turn down Davis for Prior. Who in their right mind actually thinks that the Cubs are all of the sudden going to say “yes” when the Rays include an outfielder that hit .257/.312/.352 in SINGLE-A!?!?! We know Prior is a talent. And we know that sometimes a team like the Rays needs to take risks, but those risks have to be calculated. A team like the Yankees can take a risk on a Mark Prior, because if he doesn’t work, nobody cares about the money lost. If the Rays give Prior $5 million for 2008, and he doesn’t pitch, that is a huge blow to the payroll and the roster. verdict: WE ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT IF JAKE WAS SERIOUS.