2008 Tampa Bay Rays Trade Value Index

With the General Manager’s meetings currently underway in Orlando and the Winter Meetings just around the corner, we are now neck deep in baseball’s Hot Stove League.

This off-season, rumors are already swirling concerning several of the Rays top players (Scott Kazmir, Delmon Young, Carl Crawford, etc.). While the chances of one of those players being moved is slim, the Rays are in the market for a shortstop with strong defensive skills as well as a starting pitcher and relief pitchers with pitching skills.

Therefore it is time for us to update our Tampa Bay Rays Trade Value Index (TVI)…

The TVI ranks every player on the current 40-man roster and the top prospects in the organization. Our goal is to determine which players in the organization are the most valuable to the team. Ultimately, when looking at the rankings, the question should be, if the Rays could only keep one of two players (A or B) from the organization, which player would the front office choose to keep. If the answer is player A, he would be ranked ahead of player B.

The rankings consider a number factors in addition to talent and good looks, such as potential, age, contract and depth of position in organization. This last factor comes into effect if one player is stuck behind another player with more ability. For example, Fernando Perez would be a little higher due to his exceptional speed and strong OBP, but loses a little value because he has bad hair, and some more value because the team has Rocco Baldelli, Carl Crawford, BJ Upton, Elijah Duke and Delmon Young ahead of him on the depth chart for outfielders. Another factor is team needs. A pitcher may be ranked ahead of a more “talented” fielder because the team has a stronger need for pitching at the major league level. (Please see the original TVI post for further explanation).

Feel free to tell us where we screwed up in the comments.

[More detailed notes about specific players, follow the Rankings]

CLICK HERE FOR THE ENTIRE RANKINGS 1-68

A couple of notes on the rankings…

• Scott Kazmir retains his hold on the top spot, but now that he is arbitration eligible his lead over the rest of the field is narrower. James Shields along with his dominance, consistency, ability to work late in games and the fact that he is still a year from arbitration, brings him much closer to Kid K. Still, the fact that Kazmir is left-handed still gives the nod.
• BJ Upton leapfrog’s Carl Crawford and Delmon Young and is now the most valuable hitter in the organization. Young may still end up the best of the trio, but questions remain about his power, his glove (not his arm) and his attitude after lashing out at Joe Maddon after the next-to-last game of the year in 2007. Still, barring a trade or the re-emergence of Rocco Baldelli or Elijah Dukes, the Rays outfield is set for at least the next three years.
• We always hesitate to give a very high ranking to a player until they have proven themselves above A-ball. And now that Jake McGee has done that, the power lefty makes a big leap to #6. Edwin Jackson finally started to show some of the promise that scouts have long harped about in the second half of 2007. His arm alone gets him a spot in top 10, however, he needs a strong showing in 2008 (12 wins?) to remain an elite prospect. David Price has yet to throw a pitch as a professional, but his status as the top pick gets him a top-10 nod.
• In the past, there has been a clear distinction between the top 5-6 players and the rest of the field. Now that top-tier includes the entire top-10. Despite his 40 home runs in 2007, Carlos Pena only comes in at #10 because he needs to show that there are no longer holes in swing to be found, he is arbitration eligible and of course his agent is Scott Boras, which means his cost is bound to go up, hurting his value.
• Jeff Niemann remains an enigma at #11, just outside the top-tier. He has yet to show he can dominate at the minor league level and it is starting to look as if the big right-hander may be destined to be a back-of-the-rotation starter.
• Rocco Baldelli and Elijah Dukes, both have the talent to be in the top-10, but each have their issues, hurting any value the two outfielders may have.
• Al Reyes is still a valuable commodity as a proven veteran relief pitcher, but once the season begins, he will start losing value quickly as he is a free agent at the end of the season.
• Reid Brignac is exactly why we hesitate to over-rank players with big numbers at single-A (ie. Heath Rollins). He is still an elite prospect but until he reestablishes his offense at higher levels, his value to the franchise is hurt.
• Akinori Iwamura would be further down the list if he wasn’t destined for second base. Most predicted his power numbers to decline, but nobody could have predicted that a player that once hit 40+ in Japan, would only hit 7 in the States. There is still a chance that he will adjust to the AL and if he does, even a slight improvement in his numbers would make for a valuable second baseman.

2007 Devil Rays Trade Value Index

Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus and SI.com recently released his list of the 50 Most Valuable Players in baseball. We took Mr. Silver to task for not including Carl Crawford. Let’s just say we aren’t buying Nate a beer anytime soon.

In light of this glaring omission, we thought it would be a good time to update our Tampa Bay Devil Rays Trade Value Index (TVI).

TRADE VALUE INDEX
The TVI ranks every player on the current 40-man roster and the top prospects in the organization. Our goal is to determine which players in the organization are the most valuable to the team. Ultimately, when looking at the rankings, the question should be, if the Rays could only keep one of two players from the organization, which player would the front office choose to keep.

The rankings consider a number factors in addition to talent and good looks, such as potential, age, contract and depth of position in organization. This last factor comes into effect if one player is stuck behind another player with more ability. For example, Fernando Perez would be a little higher due to his exceptional speed and strong OBP, but loses a little value because he has bad hair, and some more value because the team has Rocco Baldelli, Carl Crawford, BJ Upton, Elijah Duke and Delmon Young firmly entrenched on the major league roster and either do, or are capable of playing the outfield. Another factor is team needs. A pitcher may be ranked ahead of a more “talented” fielder because the team has a stronger need for pitching at the major league level. (Please see the original TVI post for further explanation).

Feel free to tell us where we screwed up in the comments.

[Rankings follow the notes]

A couple of notes on the rankings…

• The biggest addition to the list is obviously David Price. Even though he has yet to sign a contract, we don’t foresee that being a problem. When trying to determine where to include Price in the rankings we asked ourselves, “If the Rays did not have the top pick and were allowed to deal draft picks, would the Rays have traded Player X, for the top pick in the draft and a chance to select Price?” The answer was ‘NO’ for BJ Upton, but was a ‘YES’ for Evan Longoria, although we definitely debated the second one. You could probably exchange Longoria and Price and you wouldn’t get much of an argument from us. There is never a sure-thing in the minors, but Longoria is as close as it comes.
• Speaking of BJ Upton…He jumps up into the top 5 for the first time. We tried to temper our excitement for his hot start, knowing that he was not going to finish the season hitting .350. His strike out totals indicated that he would fall back…a lot. However, despite the recent drop in batting average, he has actually cut down on his strikeouts, recently going 12 straight games without a K. And despite his size, he generates tremendous bat speed. Everything he hits just explodes off his bat, which will equate to more hits. Upton is the real-deal. We just need to prepare ourselves for the re-birth of “BJ Upton, major league shortstop”, because it is coming. Akinori Iwamura is going to need a new home as early as next season when Evan Longoria busts down the door that is holding him back.
• Jeff Niemann’s ho-hum start to his season at AAA, as well as the emergence of James Shields and the selection of David Price drops his value from #5 to #8. If he doesn’t start to turn it on soon, he will drop out of the top 10.
• Looking back we were surprised that we had James Shields as highly valued as his #11 spring training ranking. Just goes to show you how scary the pitching situation was before the season began. He had a good start to his major league career, winning his first four starts, but there was no indication that he was going to be as good as he has been this year. The only thing keeping him from overtaking Scott Kazmir for the #1 spot is that Kid K is a lefty and he is two years younger than Shields.
• Rocco Baldelli takes a big hit, dropping from #4 to #9. If this was the Devil Rays Most Fragile Index, he would be the unanimous #1. Until he can show that he can stay healthy for an extended period of time, he won’t be moving up this chart.
• Much has been made about the Rays drafting a big power-lefty in the form of David Price. Of course the Rays already have a power-lefty in the majors (Scott Kazmir). Well the Rays have another big power-lefty in the system. Jacob McGee makes his first appearance in the top 10. When he finally receives a (well-deserved) promotion and if he has a strong start at AA, he could jump into the top 5.
• You would think that Jacob McGee and Wade Davis have been best friends since potty-training. They are always together and mentioned together even more often. Davis obviously does not have quite the same value as McGee as right-hander. Still, #20 is a strong ranking for a single-A right-handed pitcher and a testament to what scouts think about Davis. He might drop a few spots initially, but a switch to “closer-in-training” could bump his value in the long run.
• Edwin Jackson is holding on to his #12 spot…barely…on talent alone.
• Elijah Dukes drops from #10 to #15. It would have been farther, but some teams around the league have expressed some interest in Dukes, so he is sti
  ll considered a valuable commodity.
• Reid Brignac takes one of the biggest falls, dropping from #9 to #16. His batting average is down in the .250s and he is not hitting home runs. On top of that, after a solid defensive showing in 2006, he is back to his best BJ Upton impersonation at shortstop this season. Remember, Brignac’s strong numbers last year came in the very hitter-friendly California League. Yet another reason to brace ourselves for BJ Upton the shortstop.
• Chris Mason has made the biggest leap in 2007, from #48 to #24. It is very difficult to gauge players at single-A. We start to get a sense of talent-levels once they hit AA. Mason has dominated at AA this season and looks to be on the fast-track.
• Josh Butler (#28), Lewis Rollins (#48) and Jeremy Hellickson (#29) are good examples at low-A Columbus. We just don’t know what they are yet. They are dominating low-A, but it is too early to tell how that will translate to higher levels. Rollins is having the best season of the three, but was the lowest draft pick. That indicates to us that the other two have more natural ability. If Rollins can keep it up in Vero Beach and beyond, he will move up the chart quickly.

Rays Trade Value Index Update

Yesterday the Rays signed relief pitcher (we use that term loosely) Scott Dohmann to a 1-year contract. We were amused by the headline that surfaced on the Tampa Tribune website here…”Rays Get Some Relief”. Other than being an unoriginal and overused headline when a major league team signs a relief pitcher, in this particular case it appears to be completely inaccurate. Forgive us is we don’t see how this signing is anymore than a bullpen filler. Dohmann split the 2006 season between Colorado and Kansas City posting a 7.08 ERA in 48 appearances. He had shown some promise and a live arm during his rookie season of 2004 with a 4.11 ERA and 49 strikeouts in 46 innings. Still, in an area where the Rays desperately needed improvement heading into the 2007 season, Dohmann now marks the most significant addition to the relief corps.

As the free agency market dwindles and trade rumors have simmered, we are now starting to get a clearer indication of what the 2007 Rays are going to look like and right now it doesn’t look much different than the 2006 team in the rear view mirror. So let’s take this time to take another look at the Rays Trade Value Index and 2007 40-man and 25-man projections.

TRADE VALUE INDEX
The TVI ranks every player on the current 40-man roster and the top prospects in the organization. Our goal is to determine which players in the organization are the most valuable to the team. Ultimately, when looking at the rankings, the question should be, if the Rays could only keep one of two players from the organization, which player would the front office choose to keep.

The rankings consider a number factors in addition to talent and good looks, such as potential, age, contract and depth of position in organization. This last factor comes into effect if one player is stuck behind another player with more ability. For example, Elijah Dukes loses a little value because he is a mischievous little badger, and some more value because the team has Rocco Baldelli, Carl Crawford and Delmon Young firmly entrenched on the major league roster. Another factor is team needs. A pitcher may be ranked ahead of a more “talented” fielder because the team has a stronger need for pitching at the major league level. (Please see the original TVI post for further explanation).

A couple of notes on the rankings…

• B. J. Upton’s value has taken a big hit in the last 6-months, falling from 4th to 10th in the rankings. First off, his experiment at third base showed that he still has a long ways to go before he will ever be a major league infielder. Upton ranked 13th in the American League with 13 errors having only appeared in 50 games. Now, with the signing of Akinori Iwamura, Upton is a man without a position. There will be chances for Upton to win a position in Spring Training, but he will have to significantly outperform somebody else. Of course, a trade could free up a position or a move of Jorge Cantu to first base would open up second base for either Upton or Iwamura. The team could also move Upton to another team looking for a center fielder with a lot of upside. The problem is the Rays will have to take 75 cents on the dollar at this point in any trade, which may be preferable to bringing Upton off the bench or sending him back down to Durham. Upton is only 22 and his future is still very much uncertain. The guys at Baseball Prospectus also seem to have no indication of his future with Upton’s list of potential comparable players including Carlos Febles and Derek Jeter.
• Jeff Niemann continues to creep up the list and cracks the top 5. So far this off-season, the Rays have failed to add any starting pitchers. The Rays continue to talk to other teams about trading one of their young position players. Until any trades do occur and the Rays are able to acquire a young power arm that they covet to fill out the rotation, the team will depend on Niemann to become that #1 or #2 starter that they so desperately need.
• Reid Brignac may be the one player that is lower on the list than his talent would indicate. After some question his defense, the 2006 California League MVP now looks like his future at the major league level will be as a shortstop. After a slow start at AA Montgomery, he did rebound to finish the season hitting .300. Still, he only has 28 games above A-ball and the Rays have a number of other young major league infielders and prospects.
• Newly acquired Akinori Iwamura (#7), Brendan Harris (#31), and Scott Dohmann (#58, the new Mr. Irrelevant) make their debuts on the list. Mu-Rah may be a bit high, but again this is value in the eyes of the organization and most people that have actually seen him play say that while he may not be a great Major Leaguer, the Rays were able to obtain him at below market value thanks to the Japanese posting system, thus increasing his value to the team.

2007 40-MAN ROSTER AND PAYROLL

The projected 40-man roster is based solely on players currently in the organization. As trades are consummated and free agents are acquired, the projections will be adjusted accordingly.

A couple of notes on the 40-man roster projection…

• With the recent signings of Seth McClung and Ty Wiggington the Rays only have one remaining arbitration eligible player, Josh Paul. Paul made $475K in 2006 and looks to earn a raise in 2007. Paul is seeking $940K while the Rays have offered $625K. We had originally projected a salary of $800K. No matter the outcome of that case, the Rays 2007 payroll is now projected to be in the neighborhood of $27 million. This is down significantly from the 2006 opening day payroll of $43 million. On the surface this appears to contradict the organization’s promises to increase payroll. As w
  e stated all along, we would have been surprised with any big ticket free agents this off-season. The plan appears to be, that the Rays are going to treat the 2007 season as one more evaluation season and decide what holes need to be filled heading into the 2008 season when the Rays would like to start making a push up the standings.

2007 25-MAN ROSTER AND PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP

A couple of notes on the 25-man roster projections…

• Little has changed since our last TVI in regards to the opening day roster. At this point it still looks as if Mu-Rah will be the third baseman. Assuming Jorge Cantu remains at second base, first base is the only position that may be up for grabs in Spring Training. Ty Wiggington figures to get most of the ABs at first, but will also fill in at other positions. This will open up playing time at first for possibly Cantu and Jonny Gomes as well as non-roster invitee Hee-Seop Choi.
• There are still two open spots on the bench. Before his latest brainfart, Elijah Dukes had an excellent shot to grab one of those spots as well as significant playing time in the outfield, first base and at DH. Also, the recent acquisition of Brendan Harris fills manager Joe Maddon’s need or a backup middle infielder. Maddon would probably prefer one more outfielder and one more infielder to fill the final two spots, but may be inclined to only add one more fielder and head into the season with a 12-man pitching staff.
• The top three spots in the rotation appear to be set with Scott Kazmir, and Jae Seo and Scott Shields. There is still no indication whether Casey Fossum will be healthy in time for Spring Training. With his expiring contract and the always high demand for left-handed pitchers, Fossum is likely to be moved sometime before the trading deadline. This means that we only have to endure the Fossum Flop for 12-13 more starts (assuming he begins the season on the DL). J. P. Howell has the strongest chance of making the rotation. Tim Corcoran will be given a shot, but Madden has made it clear that he prefers to have Corcoran as a long reliever. Jeff Niemann should make his Rays debut sometime in 2007 but most likely will start the season at AAA Durham to ensure that he is arm is ready for the show. The darkhorse for the rotation is Edwin Jackson. Jackson is out of options and must be on the 25-man active roster. He struggled mightily in 2006 but he is still young (23) has a live arm and shown some progress in winter ball this year. If Fossum is not ready in April, Jackson could be given one last shot to be a starting pitcher for the Tampa Bay Rays.
• The bullpen may be the biggest disappointment heading into 2007. The unit struggled in 2006 and needed a one or two fresh arms. So far only Dohmann has been added to the corps and has no guarantee of even making the opening day roster. The only veteran on the staff is Dan Miceli. If no changes are made, Seth McClung will most likely be the team’s opening day closer. There are some talented arms in the bullpen but they are young and inconsistent. Tim Corcoran and Juan Salas will also be given long looks in the Spring to make the bullpen.

Rays Trade Value Index and 2007 Roster Projections

We’re back. The 2006 season began with delusions of grandeur and ended with a thud. When the dust cleared, the Rays finished 2006 with the second most losses in franchise history and winners of the David Price Sweepstakes, and the first pick in the 2007 amateur entry draft.

Now we have returned from a self-imposed exile and ready to attack the 2007 season. First up is our revised Trade Value Index (TVI) and 2007 roster projections. The TVI ranks every player on the current 40-man roster and the top prospects in the organization. Our goal is to determine which players in the organization are the most valuable to the team. Ultimately, when looking at the rankings, the question should be, if the Rays could only keep one of two players from the organization, which player would the front office choose to keep.

The rankings consider a number factors in addition to talent and good looks, such as potential, age, contract and depth of position in organization. This last factor comes into effect if one player is stuck behind another player with more ability. For example, Elijah Dukes loses a little value because he is a head-case, and some more value because the team has Rocco Baldelli, Carl Crawford and Delmon Young firmly entrenched on the major league roster. Another factor is team needs. A pitcher may be ranked ahead of a more “talented” fielder because the team has a stronger need for pitching at the major league level. (Please see the original TVI post for further explanation).

A couple of notes on the TVI Rankings…

1. We acknowledge that there may be errors in the “Contract Status” and “Roster Status” columns and strongly encourage anybody to let us know so that we can have the most accurate information.
2. We are confident that most players are at least in the general area of where they should be ranked. However, this listing is a work in progress and we are open to any ideas or suggestions you may have.
3. Salaries with * next to them are the player’s ’06 salary. These players are not arbitration eligible yet and their ’07 salary should be comparable to their ’06 salary unless the team works out a long-term contract with that player. The only player we can see that happening with is Scott Kazmir. In fact we actually expect it. Kazmir’s agent has a track record of negotiating long-term contracts for young stars that go into the players arbitration years and first year(s) of free agency. This was the route taken with Travis Hafner and the same route taken by the Devil Rays with Crawford and Baldelli.
4. The top 7 remain unchanged, although their order has been shuffled a bit. Rocco Baldelli’s strong finish moves him up two spots. Still questions remain as to whether he will be able to put together an injury-free season. After the top 7, their is a strong drop-off to the next tier of talent
5. The cream of the next crop and one of the biggest question marks in the entire list is Elijah Dukes. Last season’s suspensions and the Rays’ crowded outfield situation had Dukes well down the list. Now it looks like Dukes may be back in the good graces of the team and he was playing first base in the Arizona Fall League before having to be shut down for minor knee surgery. With an immediate need at first base, this move immediately increases Dukes’ value as he now has a shot to make the major league roster sooner rather than later. In addition, in the unlikely event that Carl Crawford or Rocco Baldelli<!– are traded, Dukes would be first in line to take their place.

A couple of notes on the 40-man roster projection…

1. The projected 40-man roster is based solely on players currently in the organization. As trades are consummated and free agents are acquired, the projections will be adjusted accordingly.
2. We project the 2007 salary for every member of the 2007 40-man roster. Interestingly, the projected payroll for 2007 is only $24 million. This is down considerably from the 2006 payroll of $43 million. This could be an interesting development for the team as the young players continue to develop. If we are reading this right and we like to think we are, the Rays may be setting themselves up to make a big free agent splash in 2008, when the team may only need one or two pieces to contend for a playoff spot.
3. If the Rays are able to sign Akinori Iwamura, his 2007 salary would likely be in the neighborhood of $1.5 million based on recent reports.
   

A couple of notes on the 25-man roster projections…

1. There are not a lot of open spots on the 25-man roster. If Ben Zobrist can retain his starting job in spring training, the only spot in the starting lineup that will be up for grabs is first base. Ty Wiggington<!– should be back and as we mentioned previously, Elijah Dukes has an opportunity in Spring Training to win the spot. It would not surprise us to see a platoon situation with Dukes filling in occasionally in the outfield.
2. We have not included Akinori Iwamura<!– in these projections as he is not yet on t
   he roster. When he is signed, there is no clear indication at this point if Iwamura would have a regular position on the infield. The five-time gold glove third baseman could also play second base and the outfield. All of those positions appear to be set at this point with players currently on the roster. Iwamura could be a left-handed version of Ty Wiggington or more likely a trade will be made that frees up a position.
3. On the bench, there could be two or three new faces. At this point there is only one open spot that needs top be filled by a veteran middle infielder. There is nobody currently in the organization that fills that criteria. This spot is most likely to be filled via free agency. Josh Paul should return as the veteran backup catcher. Damon Hollins may not be back in 2007.
4. We are assuming an 11-man pitching staff.
5. The one area that looks to see the biggest change is the bullpen. We expect the Rays to add depth to the bullpen through free agency and/or trades. As the roster stands today, Shinji Mori<!–, Dan Micelli<!– and Edwin Jackson have to be on the active roster (Mori and Micelli are signed for ’07, and Jackson will be out of options in ’07). If the Rays fail to add a proven closer in the off-season, Seth McClung will likely fill that role in 2007. If no changes are made to the roster, two spots are available to be filled by Rudy Lugo, Chad Orvella and Juan Salas.
6. Unfortunately Casey Fossum is signed for next season and is unlikely to be headed anywhere, however there is question as to whether or not he will be healthy at the beginning of the season. On the flip side, he does offer a veteran presence in the rotation. On a good staff, he could be a solid contributor as a fifth starter, and will likely be traded to a contender before the deadline next season. In Tampa, he is over-matched as a front-of-the-rotation guy. The wild card in the rotation is Jeff Niemann. He is likely to start the season in Durham. However, if he can show that his arm strength and endurance have returned, he will make the jump to the Rays very quickly. His arm injury was not major and he was over-powering in his return. “Stuff” is not an issue with him.
   

Devil Rays Trade Value Index And 2007 Roster Projections

From time to time we will update our Devil Rays Trade Value Index (TVI) and 2007 Roster and Payroll Projections that can be found in the side panel to the right. The TVI ranks ever player on the current 40-man roster and the top prospects in the organization. Our goal was to determine which players in the organization are the most valuable to the team. Ultimately, when looking at the rankings, the question should be, “If team A offered Player X, and they wanted one of two Devil Rays players, which one would the Front Office be less likely to part with?” For example, if the Florida Marlins offered the Devil Rays Dontrelle Willis…and they asked for either Scott Kazmir or Carl Crawford, which one would the front office be more willing to give up. In our rankings, the Rays would give the Marlins Crawford before they would give up Kazmir. At the other end of the spectrum are the free agents-to be (ie. Brian Meadows). Obviously these players do not have very much current value to the team. If the team decides to re-sign any of these players their value to the team would obviously increase.

The rankings consider numerous factors in addition to talent, such as potential, age, contract and depth of position in organization. This last factor comes into effect if one player in the minors is stuck behind another player with more ability. For example, Elijah Dukes loses some value because the team has Rocco Baldelli and Carl Crawford already firmly entrenched on the major league roster and Delmon Young is slated to be the right fielder of the future. Another factor is team needs. Pitchers may be ranked ahead of a more “talented” fielder because the team has a stronger need for pitching at the major league level. (Please see the original TVI post for further explanation).

A couple of notes on the Rankings…

1. We acknowledge that there may be errors in the “Contract Status” and “Roster Status” columns and strongly encourage anybody to let us know so that we can have the most accurate information.
2. We are confident that most players are at least in the general area of where they should be ranked. However, this listing is a work in progress and we are open to any ideas or suggestions you may have. Don’t like the position of a certain player? Let us know. Do you think Travis Lee is more valuable to the team? We will certainly listen to your argument, and then we will suggest you get professional help.
3. Salaries with * next to them are the player’s ’06 salary. These players are not arbitration eligible yet and their ’07 salary should be comparable to their ’06 salary unless the team works out a long-term contract with that player. The only player we can see that happening with is Scott Kazmir. In fact we actually expect it. Kazmir’s agent has a track record of negotiating long-term contracts for young stars that go into the players arbitration years and first year(s) of free agency. This was the route taken with Travis Hafner and the same route taken by the Devil Rays with Crawford and Baldelli.
4. Jeff Niemann’s solid return to the mound moves him firmly into the top 5. We still believe that Niemann could eventually reach #1 on this list, ahead of even Kid K.
5. Dioner Navarro has been better than we expected. The team has stated that they wanted to be strong up the middle and the acquisition of Navarro was important to reach that goal. His bat and defense have actually surprised us and he is still very young. We now think he can be a very good catcher in this league for a long time.
6. Elijah Dukes was one of the biggest drops, going from 11 to 18. Obviously the suspensions have hurt the talented outfielder, but he is also stuck behind Rocco, C. C. and Delmon and a future in the Rays outfield is questionable at best.
7. The biggest fall was by Josh Hamilton. Josh was and continues to be the biggest question mark in these rankings, but the season-ending injury just makes his future even cloudier.
8. Joel Guzman makes his TVI debut at #20. He has been shaky so far but with no clear cut first base prospects in the minors or on the big league roster, Guzman cracks the top 20.
   

A couple of notes on the 40-man roster projection…

1. We take a stab at guessing the 2007 salary every member of the 2007 40-man roster. Interestingly, the projected payroll for 2007 is only $25 million. This is down considerably from the 2006 payroll of $43 million. And this includes $4 million for Scott Kazmir if he does sign a long-term contract. That number could potentially be less, but probably not more. This could be an interesting development for the team as the young players continue to develop. If we are reading this right and we like to think we are, the Rays may be setting themselves up to make a big free agent splash in 2008, when the team may only need one o
   r two pieces to contend for a playoff spot.
2. There are several players that are to be free agents at the end of the season, and if they are not traded, we don’t see any of them being re-signed by the team.
3. There are 36 players on the current 40-man roster that we see returning to the team in ’07.
   
4. We also project the 4 players most likely to be added to the 40-man roster. These are the top players that would be eligible for the Rule 5 draft if they are not protected on the 40-man roster. Last season Jason Pridie was left unprotected and drafted by the Minnesota Twins. They did not feel he was ready for a spot on their major league roster, so he was returned to the Devil Rays after spring training.
5. Elijah Dukes and Juan Salas are near certainties to be added to the 40-man roster. The other two spots could potentially be filled by free agents or trades.
   
6. Obviously any free agent signings and trades in the off-season will alter these projections.
   

A couple of notes on the 25-man roster projections…

1. We are assuming an 11-man pitching staff. Obviously a 12-man staff would be one less fielder on the bench.
2. In the bullpen, Shinji Mori, Dan Micelli and Edwin Jackson have to be on the active roster (Mori and Micelli are signed for ’07, and Jackson will be out of options in ’07). Tyler Walker will start the season on the DL. If Seth McClung can make the move to closer, that leaves two spots for Rudy Lugo, Chad Orvella and Juan Salas.
3. Unfortunately Casey Fossum is signed for next season and is unlikely to be headed anywhere. On the flip side, he does offer a veteran presence in the rotation. On a good staff, he could be a solid contributor as a fifth starter, and will likely be traded to a contender before the deadline next season. In Tampa, he is over-matched as a front-of-the-rotation guy. Also, we think that J. P. Howell actually has a better shot at the ’07 rotation than Jae Seo. Therefore, if another pitcher steps up in Spring Training (Jason Hammel, Chris Seddon, etc.) Seo would be the odd-man out. Still, spots 2,3,4 are probably all up for grabs in Spring Training. The wild card in the rotation is Jeff Niemann. He is likely to start season in Durham. However, if he can show that his arm strength and endurance have returned, he will make the jump to the Devil Rays very quickly. He is a guy that was deemed major-league ready out of college. “Stuff” is not an issue with him. His arm injury was not a major injury and he has been over-powering in his return.
4. The biggest question mark in the ’07 lineup is obviously first base. Ty Wiggington should be back and Kevin Witt, has an opportunity now and in Spring Training to win a spot. It would not surprise us to see a platoon situation until one or the other emerges with the other one being used as a spot starter. If that is the case look for Witt to be the everyday first baseman as Wiggy could be penalized due to his positional flexibility.
   
5. We don’t see anybody on the current 40-man roster that would fit nicely into the final bench spot. This spot is most likely to be filled via free agency, with a middle infielder.
   

Devil Rays Trade Value Index and 2007 Roster Projections

We were recently reading a Bill Simmon’s column from ESPN, Page 2, entitled “NBA Trade Value Index.” In the article Simmons ranks the top-40 NBA players based on their respective values to their team. In theory a team would trade one of their players for any player ranked ahead of that player. Simmons takes into account more than the players ability. He considers various factors such as age, ability, contract, etc. With the Major League Baseball trade deadline fast approaching, this got us thinking. Which players in the Devil Rays organization are the most valuable to the team. So we set out to come up with a Trade Value Index for the Devil Rays. We weren’t so foolish to think we could rank every player in the organization, so we needed a logical cut-off. Our desire was to include every member of the 40-man roster as well as the team’s top prospects. So we decided to create a list that when finished would include every member of the 40-man roster, assuming that a number of players not on the 40-man roster would be ranked ahead of the last player from the 40-man roster. In other words, we would rank every player in the organization that is as valuable or more valuable than Travis Lee (the least valuable member of the 40-man roster). Ultimately this included 67 players.

In ranking the players, we considered many factors, including current ability, potential, contract status, age, as well as future with the organization. This last factor comes into effect if one player in the minors is stuck behind another player with more ability. For example, Elijah Dukes loses some value because the team has Rocco Baldelli and Carl Crawford already firmly entrenched on the major league roster and Delmon Young is slated to be the right fielder of the future. Another factor is team needs. Pitchers may be ranked ahead of a more “talented” fielder because the team has a stronger need for pitching at the major league level.

Ultimately, when looking at the rankings, the question should be, “If team A offered Player X, and they wanted one of two Devil Rays players, which one would the Front Office be less likely to part with?” For example, if the Florida Marlins offered the Devil Rays Dontrelle Willis…and they asked for either Scott Kazmir or Carl Crawford, which one would the front office be more willing to give up. In our rankings, the team would give the Marlins Crawford before they would give up Kazmir. So this is why a player like Julio Lugo is very low on the list. He does not have that much value to the team. He is an extremely talented player, but he makes a lot of money and he is a free agent at the end of the season and not likely to be resigned by the team. Therefore it would take much less for another team to acquire Lugo from the Devil Rays than a player like Wes Bankston even though Lugo is clearly a better player.

A couple of notes on the Rankings…

1. We aknowledge that there may be errors in the “Contract Status” and “Roster Status” columns and strongly encourage anybody to let us know so that we can have the most accurate information.
2. We are confident that most players are at least in the general area of where they should be ranked. However, this listing is a work in progress and we are open to any ideas or suggestions you may have. Don’t like the position of a certain player? Let us know. Do you think Travis Lee is more valuable to the team? We will certainly listen to your argument.
3. That being said, couple of players were troublesome. The biggest example is Josh Hamilton. We have no way to know how valuable the organization considers Hamilton at this point. Would the team part with him for a mid-level prospect, or do they still consider his potential too much to give up on him? We have Josh at #21, but we could see him in the list anywhere from #15 to #45.
4. We almost put Jeff Neimann at #4, ahead of B. J. Upton and Rocco Baldelli. In fact, as soon as Neimann regains his arm strength and endurance, we think he could ultimately reach #1, ahead of Scott Kazmir. He is that good.
5. Salaries with * next to them are the player’s ’06 salary. These players are not arbitration eligible yet and their ’07 salary should be comparable to their ’06 salary unless the team works out a long-term contract with that player. The only player we can see that happening with is Scott Kazmir. In fact we actually expect it. Kazmir’s agent has a track record of negotiating long-term contracts for young stars that go into the players arbitration years and first year(s) of free agency. This was the route taken with Travis Hafner and the same route taken by the Devil Rays with Crawford and Baldelli.
6. The rankings are flexible and in constant flux. For example, Andrew Sonnanstine is ranked higher than he would have been a month ago after pitching 4 complete game shutouts in seven starts and going 7-0 over that span. Our goal is to update this list periodically.

After we ranked the top 67 players in the organization, we then decided to project the 2007 40-man roster and potential payroll. We are basing this solely on the players in the organization now. Obviously the team will sign a few free agents and trades are likely to be made and when these changes are made, we will incorporate them into the rankings and the projected roster.

A couple of notes on the projected 40-man roster…

1. We take a stab at guessing the 2007 salary every member of the 2007 40-man roster. Interestingly, the projected payroll for 2007 is only $25 million. This is down considerably from the 2006 payroll of $43 million. And this includes
   $4 million for Scott Kazmir if he does sign a long-term contract. That number could potentially be less, but probably not more. This could be an interesting development for the team as the young players continue to develop. If we are reading this right and we like to think we are, the Rays may be setting themselves up to make a big free agent splash in 2008, when the team may only need one or two pieces to contend for a playoff spot.
2. We are working under the assumption that all players that are eligible for arbitration will be offered arbitration. This is unlikely to happen, but it is difficult to project exactly who will not be offered arbitration. We could guess, but we choose not to at this point.
3. There are several players that are to be free agents at the end of the season, and if they are not traded, we don’t see any of them being re-signed by the team, but that could change. This includes Sean Burroughs. The team has a $2.25 million option on him for 2007. There is no chance the team will exercise that option and Sean will become a free agent. However, in Burroughs case, the team may attempt to re-sign him at a reduced rate.
4. We also project the players most likely to be added to the 40-man roster. These are the top players that would be eligible for the Rule 5 draft if they are not protected on the 40-man roster. Last season Jason Pridie was left unprotected and drafted by the Minnesota Twins. They did not feel he was ready for a spot on their major league roster, so he was returned to the Devil Rays after spring training.

Once we finished the projected 40-man roster, we then projected the 25-man major league roster.

A couple of notes on the 25-man active roster…

1. We are again only using players currently in the organization. In other words this is the projected lineup if no other players are added to the organization, either through free agency or trades. Again, this list is constantly being reevaluated…if and when new players are added we will incorporate those into these rankings.
2. We are assuming an 11-man pitching staff. Obviously a 12-man staff would be one less fielder on the bench.
3. We can see the team re-signing Sean Burroughs at a reduced rate and using him as left-handed bat off the bench. If not, Darnell McDonald, who has major league experience, (or a veteran free agent) is the best choice at this time for the final roster spot.
4. In the bullpen, Shinji Mori, Dan Micelli and Edwin Jackson have to be on the active roster (Mori and Micelli are signed for ’07, and Jackson will be out of options in ’07). Tyler Walker will start the season on the DL. If Seth McClung can make the move to closer, that leaves two spots for Rudy Lugo, Chad Orvella and Juan Salas.
5. The most likely position player to be different than listed (in our eyes) is Ben Zobrist. We doubt that the team believes Zobrist is the team’s future shortstop, but he does offer a solid, if unspectacular glove and a strong walk to strikeout ratio not seen in the everyday lineup right now. He has the potential to be a solid #2 hitter. Unfortunately, this is the position that is most likely to be filled by somebody else, such as Luis Ordaz or Tomas Perez. (Stabbing ourselves in the eyes with chopsticks!)
6. Unfortunately Casey Fossum is signed for next season and is unlikely to be headed anywhere. On the flip side, he does offer a veteran presence in the rotation. On a good staff, he could be a solid contributer as a fifth starter, and will likely be traded to a contender before the deadline next season. In Tampa, he is over-matched as a front-of-the-rotation guy. Also, we think that J. P. Howell actually has a better shot at the ’07 rotation than Jae Seo. Therefore, if another pitcher steps up in Spring Training (Jason Hammel, Chris Seddon, etc.) Seo would be the odd-man out. The wildcard in the rotation is Jeff Niemann. He is likely to start season in Durham. However, if he can show that his arm strength and endurance have returned, he will make the jump to the Devil Rays very quickly. He is a guy that was deemed major-league ready out of college. “Stuff” is not an issue with him. His arm injury was not a major injury and right now he has been over-powering in his first few starts, but tires later in the game.