Don’t Fake The Funk On A Nasty Dunk

To paraphrase one of the Oriole’s announcers…Good pitching makes you look like a good baseball team. There has never been truer words spoken in the history of baseball. The Yankees have an all-star at every fielding position on the diamond except secondbase. When was the last time the Yankees won a world series? 2000. Back then, the team was GOOD offensively, but not nearly as potent as they have been in recent years. The difference? PITCHING. Plain and simple. Just when we were beginning to wonder if there was a major league pitcher on the Devil Rays staff, Mark Hendrickson, went to the mound tonight and thought he was back playing with the New Jersey Nets in 2000 as the D-Rays beat the Orioles 2-0. At least his line score tonight looked very similar to most of his line scores during his basketball career. 9 min, 3 fga, 0 fgm, 0 reb, 1 ast, 5 fouls, 0 pts. Oops. Our bad. That was 9 inn, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 Ks, 0 HR. There was one other stat that stood out tonight for Hendrickson. His pitchcount (106 pitches, 69 strikes) was nearly identical in 9 innings as Scott Kazmir’s (104/66) was on opening day in 4+ innings. We hope Kazmir was paying attention tonight.

We were also pleased to see Joe Maddon stick with Hendrickson in 9th innning. Maddon has made it known that he does not like to depend on pitch counts. He would rather let a pitcher go as long as he is throwing well and not laboring on the mound. Hendrickson now has as many complete games as the entire team had in 2005, and more shutouts than the 2004 and 2005 squads combined.

Tomas Perez, who was signed earlier in the day, made his debut as a pinch runner for Aubrey Huff, in the 8th inning. Perez then stayed in the game to play thirdbase as a defensive substitution. Perez, who didn’t make a single error in 95 games, in 2005, made a throwing error on his first attempt of 2006. In his defense, Huff would not have even made the play and the Travis Lee appeared to make the tag on the high throw, even though the runner was ruled safe. Perez made up for the botched throw on the very next play, diving to his left and throwing out the lead runner at secondbase and keeping the tying run off base.

Speaking of Travis Lee. Excellent defensive firstbaseman, but there is a reason he has never lived up to his potential as a hitter. During the bottom of the 8th, Tim Byrdack of the Orioles walked three of the first four batters he faced to bring Lee up to bat with the bases loaded and nobody out in a 2-0 ballgame. Lee, facing a pitcher with obvious control problems, with the bases loaded in a close ballgame, proceeds to swing at the first pitch out of the strike zone. We are at a loss as to why Lee would be swinging at all at the first pitch against a left handed pitcher with control problems. He then swings at the second pitch and hits a weak groundball to the secondbaseman, leading to an inning ending 4-6-3 double play. For anyone that has ever played baseball, that is usually what happens when you try to pull an outside pitch, and that is exactly what happened to Lee. Maddon has stressed that he wants the team to play with better fundamentals, a lesson that apparently was lost on Travis Lee.

What An Excellent Day For An Exorcism

Our heads are spinning over here at Rays Index. The following is an actual title of a press release from the Tampa Bay Devil Rays earlier today posted on MLB.com: “Rays DL Julio Lugo; Release RHP Jesus Colome; Sign veteran INF Tomas Perez; Recall RHP Scott Dunn; Acquire RHP Marcos Carvajal from Seattle.” We are still consulting our abacus to try and figure out exactly who will be playing for the D-Rays tonight and in the immediate future. If we are reading this right, and we would like to think we are, Julio Lugo, is the second shortstop to hit the DL in two days, following Luis Ordaz, who was switched from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL, meaning his season is likely over. Joe Maddon made it clear that the team will not be recalling B.J. Upton from Durham to fill in for the disabled shortstops. Last night, utility man Nick Green played shortstop, going 0-3 with one walk and one run scored. To help fill the need up the middle, the D-Rays today signed Tomas Perez, who has played parts of 10 seasons with Toronto and Philadelphia. He is a career .244 hitter with 22 home runs and 5 stolen bases. He can play all four infield positions and did not commit an error in 95 games in 2005. To replace Colome, the team claimed Scott Dunn, off of waivers from the Dodgers. Colome was released after throwing just 5 pitches and injuring his shoulder. The interesting thing here is the players have talked a lot this spring about how relaxed the atmosphere was in the clubhouse with new manager Joe Maddon. Now all of the sudden Colome throws 5 pitches, retiring one batter and walking the other before leaving injured and the next day he is gone. Maybe this will shake up the team, especially the pitching staff.
Rays DL Julio Lugo; Release RHP Jesus Colome; Sign veteran INF Tomas Perez; Recall RHP Scott Dunn; Acquire RHP Marcos Carvajal from Seattle [MLB.com]

Stupid Is As Stupid Does

Last night’s game would have made Forest Gump sick, and I don’t mean “cough due to cold” type of sickness. For those of you that don’t remember, Forest didn’t like to walk anywhere. Maybe the D-Rays would pitch better if Forest was on the mound. Tampa Bay pitchers walked nine batters in eight innings of work during the 16-6 loss to the Baltimore Orioles. Starting pitcher, Seth McClung, walked seven in three innings, giving up seven runs. Newly acquired Brian Meadows, gave up seven runs in 1.2 innings of work. At least he didn’t walk any batters. While the loss of this game is not the fault of the offense, they are not without blame. We over here at Rays Index are glad there was a glitch in the TiVo tonight, and we were not subjected to this game. OH THE HUMANITY!

Look At That! He Hit The F-ing Bull! Guy Gets A Free Steak!

The next important day on the Devil Ray calendar is next Monday when the D-Rays have their home opener at the Trop against the Baltimore Orioles. However, four of the Rays six minor league teams will open their seasons tonight, with the Durham Bulls (@ Norfolk), the Montgomery Biscuits (v. Tennessee), the Visalia Oaks (@ San Jose) and the Southwest Michigan Devil Rays (@ Lansing) starting play. The low-A, Hudson Valley Renegades and the Rookie League Princeton Devil Rays both begin their seasons in late June. Over the next few days, we will be introducing you to each of these teams and highlighting a few of the players that we will be tracking over the course of the season. Today: The Durham Bulls.

Durham Bulls (AAA)
We will always have a soft spot in our heart for this team thanks to one of the great movies of all time, Bull Durham. Back then, the Bulls were the single A affiliate for the Atlanta Braves. A team with so well known deserves the higher profile of being a AAA team and we couldn’t be happier that they are part of the Devil Rays organization. On top of that, the Bulls possess some of the best uniforms in all of professional sports. You have to love the vests and chest logo with the snorting bull. On the other hand, the mascot, Wool E. Bull, leaves a little to be desired. The horns could use some viagra, but he does seem to have quite the appetite, and what other mascot has swimsuit calendar aspirations? The 2006 Durham Bulls, managed by, John Tamargo, have announced their opening day roster and there are plenty of familiar names. Joe Maddon and Rays management have already let it be known that they will be much more patient with their young players. If this group was in control we would never have seen B. J. Upton on the major league roster at age 19. That being said, we still expect to see several of these players on the big league roster at some point during 2006, even if it is just for a “cup of coffee”.

Key players we will be keeping tabs on throughout the season
Delmon Young (#26), 20 years old, RF. In 2005, Young became the second Devil Ray minor leaguer to be names Baseball America‘s Minor League Player of the Year (Rocco Baldelli, 2002). He was also named the Southern League MVP, despite not playing in that league after July 15. In addition, he was tabbed Baseball America‘s top prospect for 2006. Young has all the tools. He was one of only four players in the minors to hit 25 homers and steal 25 bases, despite being the youngest player in the AAA International League last season. He also possesses a strong arm and has the ability to hit .300+ at the major league level. The one thing he needs to work on is his plate discipline. While the team can live with the strike out totals, he rarely walks. Usually a poor strikeout-to-walk ratio (33:4 in 52 games last season at Durham) is an indication the player will have difficulty adjusting to major league pitching. If Young gets off to a good start with Durham, it will be difficult for the Devil Rays to be patient with him. Not only is Young the type of player that can win games all by himself, he also the type of player that can put fannies in the seats. ETA July 2006

B. J. Upton (#2), 21, SS. Melvin Emanuel Upton, has already received a taste of the big leagues as a 19 year old rookie in 2004, in which he played in 45 games (.258-4-12-4sb). His offense has never been a concern for the team (.303-18-74-44, last season at Durham), but his defense is holding him back and may be a reason why Julio Lugo has yet to be traded. While speculation persists that Upton‘s future may be at 3B, the team will give him every chance to succeed at SS, despite 53 errors last season at Durham. The team, and Upton, seem to have taken the right approach and the right attitude. The team hired Ozzie Smith this off-season to tutor the young shortstop, and Upton has said he would rather work as a shortstop in Durham than play thirdbase in Tampa. ETA September 2006

Elijah Dukes (#35), 21, OF. Dukes, a native of Tampa, is a BIG boy. At 6’2″, 244 pounds, he might be more suited to play linebacker for the Buccaneers. He has displayed a consistent bat and great speed, but little power so far. We have to expect that eventually his power stroke will develop. Otherwise, his minor league numbers have been solid and he has progressed through the system quickly. Dukes did hit 18 homes last season at Montgomery, and had a very solid spring numbers this year. We would probably hear much more about Dukes if not for the logjam that is beginning to develop in the Devil Rays’ outfield. ETA September 2007

Chad Orvella (#12), 25, RP. Orvella, originally drafted as a shortstop, has been nothing short of amazing in the minor leagues. In three seasons, he has a 1.22 ERA in 111.0 innings, with only 63 hits and 17 walks, while striking out 160. Not bad numbers for a righthander built more like a lefthander (5’11, 190). Orvella did spend the second half of 2005 with the big club and showed signs of brilliance,
but seemed to have lost the pinpoint control that was displayed in the minors (23 bb in 50.0 inn). There was early speculation that Orvella was the closer in waiting after the trade of Danys Baez, but that plan has been put on hold as Orvella struggled in spring training and will begin the year on the farm. ETA May 2006

Chris Seddon (#13), 22, SP. Seddon, a tall, lanky lefthander (6’3″, 170), made the jump to AAA, Durham midway through the 2005 season. His numbers weren’t spectacular, but we have to believe the organization believes he has major league potential as an end of the rotation starter. On the other hand, Joe Maddon has no lefthanded relievers on the major league roster, and Seddon could get a look as a lefty specialist some point this season. ETA July 2006

Jason Hammel (#17), 23, SP. Hammel was named the 2005 Devil Rays Minor League Pitcher of the Year (11-4, 3.24 ERA, combined AA/AAA), and has been tabbed by Baseball America as the D-Rays third best prospect (D. Young, J. Niemann). About all we know about Hammell, is that his hat doesn’t look like it fits him too well. ETA 2007

Tomorrow: Montgomery Biscuits

We now have a mathemtical definition for "No Chance in Hell"

The good people over at Replacement Level Yankees Weblog (and we use term “good” loosely, as how good can a Yankees fan really be?) have projected the final standings for the 2006 baseball season. While all the math is over our head, it appears as though they have used three different models and then averaged the three to predict division champions, wild card teams, league champions and World Series champions. Each of the models was simulated 1000 times. The Diamond Mind model and the Pecota models appear to be the most realistic. Diamond Mind, predicts that the D-Rays will win 70 games and Pecota 69. In 1000 seasons, Diamond Mind has the Rays winning one division title and six wild cards, while Pecota predicted zero for both. On the other hand, the final model, Zips, predicts 73 wins with 6 division titles and 4 wild card births. Averaging the three models gives the Rays a record of 71-91, and playoff appearances in 17 out of 3000 seasons or slightly more than 0.5% of the time. Sounds about right.

A few other notes…The Zips model is definitely flawed. This model predicts the Yankees to only have a 28% chance of making the playoffs, while the other two models give values of 77% and 80%. Even those seem a little low. Also, according to the models, the D-Rays should be better than Kansas City (which in two of the models does not make the playoffs at all in 1000 simulations), Florida and Colorado. Hey…its something.

The 2006 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout [The Replacement Level Yankees Weblog]

The GOOD, The BAD, and the oh so UGLY

THE GOOD
We were surprised that Julio Lugo was still with the team after the trading deadline last year and we were surprised he was still with the team when players reported to spring training this year, and we will be surprised if he is still with the team this August, but we are glad he is with the team now. Lugo got off to a great start with an opposite field shot off the scoreboard in right field and finished the game 2-2 before leaving the game with an injury. More on that in a minute.

We can’t help but be pleased to see that Johnny Gomes is picking up right where he left off last season, but we were a little dissapointed to see how calm Gomes was after hitting a no-doubter. While Gomes has gone too far in the past, with his behavior at the plate, we hate to see him go completely in the other direction. Gomes is an emotional player, and we beleive that emotion is something the rest of the team can feed off of.

While Aubrey Huff will never be Brooks Robinson or Mike Schmidt with the leather, he did make a fine play yesterday bare-handing a slow roller down the thirdbase line.

We are still on the fence about Carl Crawford using the bunt more this season. His first at bat of the season was a bunt attempt in which he was thrown out. We agree that the bunt can be an effective weapon for someone with Crawford’s speed. The practice could easily produce 25-30 more hits in a season, which could be the difference between batting .280 or batting .330. However, Crawford is such a good hitter and in time we believe he will become a guy who can hit 25-30 homers. Lets just hope he picks the right time and place to lay down a bunt

Manager Joe Maddon made his first good managerial decision of the season before the game, when he decided to put away the retro glasses his wife picked out, and decided to go more chic with the sunglasses. We can only hope that the lights in the Trop this season are too bright and Maddon will always wear the sunglasses.

THE BAD
Scott Kazmir gave up 6 runs in 4+ innings of work, but that is not what is bad. We expect those type of outings from Kazmir. He is still only 22 years old. THE BAD is the fact that he once again threw an absurd number of pitches. 104 pitches in 4 innings is not going to get the job done. That was 104 pitches to 22 batters or almost 5 pitches per batter. Which means, if you count the pitches that were put in play, Kazmir was averaging 2 balls and 3 strikes per batter, and he only struck out 4.

Julio Lugo left the game in the third inning with what was called a pulled oblique. Now its been a while since we here at the Rays Index have taken an anatomy class, and while we have no idea what an oblique is, it doesnt sound good. However, Lugo did stay in after the game after the injury was sustained and was only subsequently taken out in the bottome half of the inning…presumably to get his oblique massaged by Don Zimmer.

Like many fans out there that followed the teams progress during spring training we were excited to see the performance of non-roster invitee Jason Childers, a journeyman 31 year old rookie. Childers threw 12 scoreless innings during the Cactus League. Manager Joe Maddon made his first questionable decision of the new year when he went with Childers with a man on first and nobody out in the fifth down 5-4, on opening day with his wife and family in the stands. Not the easiest way to make your major league debut.

THE UGLY
Joey Gathright was thrown out by 20 feet at second base by Ramon Hernandez. Reminded us of the scene in Major League when Willie Mays Hayes slides head first into second base on a steal attempt and stops about 3 feet short and the shortstop waves at him to keep coming. Gathright, maybe the fastest player in baseball, looked more like Greg Luzinski or John Kruk.

These are the RAYS of our Lives

As far as I am concerned, Christmas come three times a year. The first day of the NCAA tournament, the first Sunday of the NFL season and of course the first Monday in April also known as Opening Day in baseball. Dwayne Staats just said it best. This is the most exciting opening day in the D-Rays history since year one. How can you not be excited about this season? Sure, this team still has problems (ie. relief pitching), but you can see it starting to come together. And no sooner did I write that, and Johnny Gomes just parked one in the foliage of left center firled at Camden Yards. Here is a perfect example…I actually worry about our outfield situation because we have TOO many talented outfielders. Nice problem to have.